This is a “live cyclone coverage” that started from May 24 and will end on June 13. From June 13, normal articles of Pakistan Weather Portal (PWP) will resume.
Turbat sizzles at 50°C again
Pre-Monsoon activty in Karachi continues
Chances of depression in the Arabian sea still persists
Pakistan Weather Background
*A weak western disturbance would affect Northern Pakistan.
*Heat wave to persist in parts of Balochistan and Sindh.
*Tropical cyclone “Keila” may affect lower Sindh.
Western disturbance and Northern Pakistan
A weak westerly wave will approach Pakistan on May 31 and leave for India on June 3. Under its influence light to moderate rainfall with strong gusty winds likely. Lahore, Islamabad, Peshawar and adjoining areas all expected to get rains during this period. No major weather expected other than that, but Pakistan Weather Portal will keep an eye on these dust storms which are deadly in this month of year especially in Punjab. Following is the rain forecast from Pakistan Weather Portal (PWP) for some cities;
- In Lahore, Lahoris will have a cloudy start to the new month, light rainfall will occur on June 1 and during the evening it will become moderate with strong winds. Rain will continue till June 2.
- In Islamabad, the capital will have thunder showers with strong winds will start from May 31 and continue till June 2.
- In Peshawar, light rainfall with occasional gaps till June 2.
- In Multan, some rainfall with stray thunder till June 2.
Overall these rains will continue till June 3 and after that they will start entering Kashmir, India.
Heat wave and southern Pakistan
The seasonal heating continues in Pakistan especially in Sindh where temperatures are above 47 °C. Temperatures have touched 50°C in Turbat while 49°C in Sibbi, Balochistan on May 31.
During the coming days temperatures will decrease in Punjab, Khyber, north-east Balochistan due to westerly wave. But this time these western winds will not cause temperatures to decrease in Sindh and temperatures are expected to rise there.
Tropical depression ARB 01 - Scenario still holds
As of May 31, a low pressure should have formed in the Arabian sea but still an Upper air cyclonic circulations persist that are expected to enhance monsoon activity over western India especially Kerala, where heavy to very heavy monsoon showers likely. There are two things that could happen to this system;
- Most model do not forecast the upper air cyclonic circulation in the Arabian sea near western Indian coast to intensify. If that’s the case then these circulations will fizzle out near Goa and Mumbai but could cause some heavy rainfall there.
- Few suggest it will intensify into a low pressure and then into a depression at least if not a cyclonic storm. If that is the case then it’s either Oman or Pakistan or India.
Pakistan Weather Portal (PWP) will issue news alert, breaking news and updates if a depression threatens Pak coast.
Pre-monsoon clouds will keep entering Karachi during the next few days, fast winds are also likely, No major weather conditions likely.
Monsoon Update 2011
Monsoon arrives in India early
Heavy rainfall likely in many parts of India
The southwest monsoon, which arrived in Kerala on May 30, has advanced to some more parts to the south of Bay of Bengal, remaining parts of Andaman Sea and parts of east central Bay of Bengal.
Widespread monsoon rainfall would occur over Lakshadweep and Kerala till June 3. Fairly widespread rain over the Northeastern States. Scattered rain would occur over Konkan, Goa, north interior Karnataka, Tamil Nadu, Rayalaseema and rest of east India. It will be isolated over the rest of Maharashtra, Andhra Pradesh and central India.
No monsoon low pressure is in sight that could bring pre-monsoon rainfall in Sindh and Karachi, though its too early for such things to happen in May but they will start from July.
There should be some monsoon depressions in the Bay of Bengal that needs to travel from India to Sindh, but this year Bay of Bengal is unusually not producing any depression it should have given birth to a cyclone uptill now. 98% monsoon rainfall of Karachi are from Bay of Bengal while 2% from Arabian sea.