’100% chance of depression in the Bay!’
The Bay of Bengal for the first time ever in this year is getting all warmed up for an event that could be a cause of worry for the residents of eastern India, and maybe for Bangladesh. A tropical cyclone could form in the central Bay of Bengal during the last week of October while it’s formation has already started. Apart from this storm, on October 10, a depression BOB 01 formed in the Bay of Bengal that brought flooding rain with high winds to Bangladesh. The tropical activity of 2012 in the north Indian Ocean has been the lowest since many years.
‘Murjan’ could bring 65 km/h winds!
An upper air cyclonic circulation has already formed over the Andaman sea near Myanmar, it could intensify into a low pressure area on October 24 or October 25 and could intensify into cyclonic storm (40 mph – 65 km/h winds) with lowest pressure shown by chart at 1000 mbar/996 mbar during the last week of October. Below is the possible track of the storm that have been showed by numerous models;
- North-North-West: Bangladesh
- North-West: West Bengal and adjoining Bangladesh.
- West-North-West: Orissa.
- West-South-West: Towards upper Srilanka and adjoining Tamil Nadu.
- West: Towards Andra Pradesh and adjoining Orissa.
It is not clear at which direction this weather system would head but after landfall it will surely move in a North-eastern direction. Landfall is expected on October 30/October 31 depending upon the track, it could change though.
What will be the name?
If the ‘expected’ cyclone does form, it would be given the following name;
- Murjan – It is an Arab word given by Oman which means Corel.
Something also happening in other ‘sea’?
Meanwhile south-east Arabian sea has given brith to a low pressure that might intensify further into a well-marked low pressure area that would move towards horn of Africa as a remnant.