Oklahoma has witnessed a mammoth tornado that was 3 kilometer wide packing winds of up to 320 kph, it has killed 91 people while 300 are injured. There is a forecast of more tornadoes in the affected areas though this tornado was not the strongest of all when compared to past tornado in U.S but its size is what has caused severe widespread destruction.

A TV Channel shows the approaching tornado

On the Enhanced Fujita Scale, it was a EF4 tornado, second most powerful category of tornado with winds up to 320 kph. On a regular Fujita Scale it was a F3 tornado.

This is a developing story!

As things heats up – Monsoon gets ready

The sub-continent is experiencing its first major heatwave of the season that is crucial for building up a normal monsoon season. It is worth noting that this year the western sub-continent was a under the grip of below normal temperatures due to the everlasting westerlies till April therefore it was feared that the region would miss out the heatwave but luckily it came on time and western Sub-continent heated up on the right time.

Wrath of heatwave brings life to standstill

The heatwave started from May 12 in the Sindh province of Pakistan as was predicted by PWP on May 8. The heatwave gripped entire Pakistan on May 15 and gradually intensified on May 16/May 17. This heatwave is expected to last till the end of May;

Hell-like heatwave in Pakistan

High temperatures till the end of May

Every year before the monsoon season there is a heatwave but in the year 2011 and 2012, those heatwaves were isolated. 2013′s heatwave can be compared to the deadly and record-breaking heatwave of 2010 in which many areas of Pakistan’s Sindh and Balochistan experienced 53°C that heatwave took the lives of more than ten people in Pakistan. Following are the highest temperatures recorded in India and Pakistan during the heatwave;

• Islamabad: 41°C
• Lahore: 45°C
• Multan:  46°C
• Peshawar: 43°C
• Hyderabad: 45.5°C
•  Nawabshah: 47°C
• Jacobabad: 50°C
•  Larkana: 51°C
• Moen Jo Daro: 50°C
•  Sukkur: 48°C
•  Nagarparkar: 44°C

Never ending heatwave in India 

• Bikaner: 47°C
• Nagpur: 46.5 °C
• Jasialmer: 46.3°C
• Ganganagar: 46°C
• Chandrapur: 45.5°C

Weak Western disturbance ’07′ would be passing through the extreme northern areas of Pakistan yet it would not be able to break the heat spell in India nor Pakistan. Precautions should be taken during this wave of high temperatures!

Monsoon marching westwards!

• Overall the conditions are good for the development of  Monsoon at the moment 

Clouds of Mahasen over Chittagong beach

Monsoon has set over South Bay of Bengal and the Andaman sea on May 17 due to the formation of cyclone ‘Mahasen’ that helped the monsoon to advance in that sector as it resulted in cross-equilateral winds however the disadvantage of Mahasen was that it has delayed the onset of Monsoon over Kerala (most important place for the monsoon). Normally the monsoon advances into the Andaman sea on May 20 but this year it has been early. It is now being predicted that the giant winds would now set over Kerala on June 3, three days behind the normal schedule. The onset of Monsoon over Kerala signals the arrival of these giant winds over Sub-continent. Over the years the Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) forecasts the onset on monsoon over Kerala, which can be seen from the below data;

Tropical Activity also gaining strength?

Karachi after Monsoon rain

There might be some hamper in monsoon progress over the western coast of India due to the tropical activity in the Arabian sea (May 20 till May 23) as it could shift the moisture towards Oman and Yemen. Another low pressure area can form in the Bay of Bengal during the next few days which will give boost to the developing monsoon in the areas along Bay of Bengal. According to PWP, during the first week of June the western coast of India would see frequent formation of thunderstorms and there are slim chances of another tropical activity in the Arabian sea and therefore PWP believes that monsoon might set over Kerala earlier than June 3.

Temperature in the Bay of Bengal and the Arabian sea are around 28°C till 31°C. Northern areas of Pakistan can get monsoon rain during the first week of July while central areas can get monsoon rain during the first/second week while southern areas can get monsoon rain during the second/third week of July.

Our View on the upcoming season

Pakistan Weather Portal (PWP) issued it’s monsoon forecast of 2013 on May 6, which is stated below;

“Monsoon 2013 would set in early this year in India due to the formation of a low pressure in Bay of Bengal, overall it could be normal on the wider scale in Pakistan and India due to the neutral ENSO conditions in the Pacific ocean till October. Pakistan can get monsoon rains during the first week of July. Westerlies and Easterlies interaction could lead to heavy flooding rainfall over the rivers of Punjab and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, westerlies could increase their presence in late May and June. Rains could be normal in southern areas while near normal in northern areas. North-eastern Punjab and Azad Kashmir can witness some frequent heavy downpour in the month of July. Slight possibility of pre-monsoon activity in Sindh and North-eastern Punjab only. However an event of isolated flash flooding/urban flooding (happens every year in the country) can never be ruled out.”

Monsoon Special articles for 2013

You can read special monsoon article by Pakistan Weather Portal (PWP), here;

• Another Monsoon brewing for the same Sub-continent! - Part I
• Do we really need a Monsoon season? - Part II
• Pakistan bakes in Oven: Bricks for Monsoon 2013 placed! – Part III

TO BE CONTINUED….

Cyclone Mahasen losing steam?

The 2013 North Indian ocean cyclone season started off with the formation of a depression BOB 01 in the Bay of Bengal on May 10 that later intensified into the season’s first full blown cyclone. On average 4 to 6 tropical depressions form in the North Indian ocean, more in the Bay of Bengal than the Arabian sea.

King ‘Mahasen’ cyclone! 

Cyclone ‘Mahasen’ formed on May 11 in the southern Bay of Bengal, the word ‘Mahasen’ has been contributed by Sri Lanka.  Mahasen was a king of Sri Lanka who ruled the country from 275 to 301 AD.

Rare: Connection of South and North Indian Ocean

Cyclone Mahasen and Jamala

A very rare phenomenon occurred both in the south-west and north Indian ocean. On May 11, cyclone ‘Jamala’ in the south-west Indian ocean was just south of cyclone ‘Mahasen’. Jamala was moving in a clockwise-direction while Mahasen was moving in a counter-clockwise direction however later in the day Mahasen absorbed the moisture from Jamala as it was the larger storm thus leading a end of Jamala.

Two cyclones in different part of oceans

In May 2002, this phenomenon took place when a cyclone formed in North Indian ocean’s Arabian sea while another cyclone in south-west Indian ocean was near Madagascar. The two storm erupted from the same large area of disturbance.

Timing of updates – 3:00 pm PKT (mid-day), 6:30 pm PKT (evening) and 9:00 pm PKT (night)

Update issued on May 16 at 11:00 pm PKT - LAST UPDATE

Tropical cyclone ‘Mahasen’ continues to lose intensity as it moves in a NE direction, it is not significant now. Cyclone ‘Mahasen’ brought rain to Indonesia, Thailand, Myanmar, Bangladesh, Sri Lanka and India. Following is the death toll from Mahasen;

• Indonesia – None
• Thailand – 1 person
• Mynamar – 8 people drowned on May 14
• Bangladesh – 14 people
• Sri Lanka – 7 people
• India – 9 people

In Sri Lanka, agencies urged the International and the local media to refrain from using ‘Mahasen’ as the name of a destructive storm, as Mahasen was a King of Sri Lanka who brought prosperity to the country. It is worth-mentioning that the Sri Lanka Meteorological Office suggested this name.

Update issued on May 16 at 5:44 pm PKT

12 die in Bangladesh due to torrential rains and strong winds of 60 mph. There are some unconfirmed reports that say that Burma has escaped the burnt of the storm while 50 injured.

Update issued on May 16 at 2:00 pm PKT

‘Mahasen makes landfall as a significant tropical storm!’

Tropical cyclone ‘Mahasen’ has made landfall as a moderate strength tropical storm, widespread severe heavy downpour with strong gusty winds (56 km/h – 90 km/h) might have occurred in the coast of Bangladesh and adjoining Indian and Burma coast including the Indian city of Kolkata. The storm has weakened now though there are more chances of scattered heavy downpour with strong gusty winds till 6 hours after that significant decrease in rain coverage. Following are the main features of the storm as of now;

• Movement: NE
• Winds: 50 mph (85 km/h)
• Pressure: 990 mbar
• Landfall: Crosses Bangladesh coast
• UNDER THREAT NOW: Bangladesh-Burma and Indian state of Assam 

‘Mahasen’ made landfall on May 16 morning as forecasted by PWP since May 13 (May 15 night/May 16  morning) though other websites and few models did say that Mahasen would make landfall on May 16 night, some even went far by saying that Mahasen would make landfall on May 17 morning however in the end the landfall happened as per the forecast of PWP.

Update issued on May 15 at 9:00 pm PKT

‘Mahasen approaching for landfall – Bangladesh awaits Severe heavy rainfall’

Tropical cyclone ‘Mahasen’ is quickly moving towards Bangladesh-Burma coast, it will start to weaken by May 15 night due to once again increase in vertical wind shear as it makes landfall over Bangladesh-Burma coast. Following are the main features of the storm as of now;

• Movement: NE
• Winds: 50 mph (85 km/h)
• Pressure: 990 mbar
• Landfall: Bangladesh-Burma coast (Tonight/May 16 morning)
• UNDER THREAT NOW: Bangladesh-Burma and Indian state of Assam

Showers with gusty winds expected in Orissa and West Bengal coast till one hour. After one hour widespread severe heavy downpour likely in Bangladesh, Indian state of Assam and adjoining coast of Burma with strong gusty winds (56 km/h till 85 km/h).

Update issued on May 15 at 3:00 pm PKT (Also for 6:00 pm)

Tropical cyclone ‘Mahasen’ intensified slightly as it is moving towards its final destination that is Burma-Bangladesh coast. Mahasen would start to weaken rapidly on May 15 mid-day/evening due to once again increase in vertical wind shear as it makes landfall over Bangladesh-Burma coast. Following are the main features of the storm as of now;

• Movement: NE
• Winds: 50 mph (80 km/h)
• Pressure: 990 mbar (dropped)
• Landfall: Bangladesh-Burma coast (May 15 night/May 16 morning)
• UNDER THREAT NOW: North-Eastern coast of India and Bangladesh

Heavy downpour with strong gusty winds (above 56 km/h) expected especially in north-eastern coast of Andhra Pradesh and coast of Orissa during the next six hours after that stormy conditions expected in West Bengal and Bangladesh. The storm is 700 km south-west of Chittagong, Bangladesh.

Update issued on May 14 at 9:00 pm PKT

Tropical cyclone ‘Mahasen’ has re-curved and it is quickly moving towards Bangladesh-Burma coast. In a NE direction it may intensify into a category-1 hurricane or even a low end category-2 hurricane as the sea temperatures are high while the wind shear is slightly low in that area. Mahasen would start to weaken rapidly on May 15 mid-day/evening due to once again increase in vertical wind shear as it makes landfall over Bangladesh-Burma coast. Following are the main features of the storm as of now;

• Movement: NE
• Winds: 50 mph (80 km/h)
• Pressure: 996 mbar
• Landfall: Bangladesh-Burma coast (May 15 night/May 16 morning)
• UNDER THREAT NOW: Eastern coast of India

Severe heavy downpour likely on Wednesday in Bangladesh and Burma with gale force winds. The storm has killed seven people in Sri Lanka.

Update issued on May 14 at 3:00 pm PKT (also for 6:00 PKT)

Tropical cyclone ‘Mahasen’ is just 400 km south-east of Indian city of Vishakhapatnam while 1140 km south-west of Chittagong. The system is under a area of moderate vertical wind shear as it is moving in northwards therefore Mahasen has weakened, it will move in this direction briefly  before taking a sharp re-curve in a NE track. Once it moves in a NE direction it may intensify into a category-1 hurricane or even a low end category-2 hurricane as the sea temperatures are high while the wind shear is slightly low in that area. Mahasen would start to weaken rapidly on May 15 mid-day/evening due to once again increase in vertical wind shear as it makes landfall over Bangladesh-Burma coast. Following are the main features of the storm as of now;

• Movement: N
• Winds: 50 mph (80 km/h)
• Pressure: 996 mbar
• Landfall: Bangladesh-Burma coast (May 15 night/May 16 morning)
• UNDER THREAT NOW: Eastern coast of India

Indian states of Orissa, coastal Andhra Pradesh and Tamil Nadi can get showers at time moderate with windy conditions (46 km/h to 56 km/h).

Update issued on May 13 at 6:00 pm PKT (also for 9:00 pm)

Tropical cyclone ‘Mahasen’ is just 700 km south-east of Indian city of Chennai while 1300 km south-south-west of Bangladeshi city of Chittagong during last few days it has moved in a WNW direction and due to the incoming westerlies, Mahasen is likely to curve in a Northwards direction briefly before taking a sharp re-curve in a NE track, at the moment the system is slowly moving in a NW direction almost stationary. Mahasen may intensify further into a category-1 hurricane or even a low end category-2 hurricane but the storm would accelerate after taking the NE track therefore the chances of intensification are low. Mahasen would start to weaken rapidly on May 15 mid-day/evening due to increase in vertical wind shear as it makes landfall over Bangladesh-Burma coast. Following are the main features of the storm as of now;

• Movement: NW
• Winds: 55 mph (88 km/h)
• Pressure: 996 mbar
• Landfall: Bangladesh-Burma coast (May 15 night/May 16 morning)
• UNDER THREAT NOW: Eastern coast of India

As of today, Showers have occurred in Chennai. Indian states of Orissa, coastal Andhra Pradesh and Tamil Nadi can get showers at time moderate with windy conditions (46 km/h to 56 km/h). Sri Lanka can experience frequent moderate rain with isolated heavy falls and strong winds (above 56 km/h) as the outer bands have gripped Sri Lanka.

‘The Country needs you’

Western disturbance ’06′ with cyclonic circulations over central north-western areas is now moving towards the northern areas of the country. The amount of rainfall in the system is not much however it can bring some dust storms (56 km/h to 76 km/h) to the northern areas including Islamabad, Peshawar and adjoining cities.

For more cities and detailed weather update, check PWP’s Pakistan Weather Update & Monsoon Alert (May 8 – May 22)

May 11 Weather Update for Main cities

What will the weather be like on May 11, one of the biggest and most important day of Pakistan.  Following is the brief weather update of main cities of Pakistan;

Islamabad 

• Temperature – 33°C/34°C.
• Rain – Mostly cloudy with chances of shower with strong dusty winds.

Karachi

• Temperature – 35°C/36°C
• Rain – No chance, dry with partly cloudy with fast winds.

Lahore

• Temperature – 36°C/38°C
• Rain – Partly/mostly cloudy with slight chances of drizzle along with strong winds.

Peshawar

• Temperature – 32°C/34°C
• Rain – Mostly cloudy with chances of shower with strong dusty winds.

Quetta

• Temperature – 26°C/27°C
• Rain – No chance, dry with partly/mostly cloudy.

Message from PWP for May 11

‘One Day – Five years!’

Pakistan still has a long way to go but your vote will be the first brick in building a new and better Pakistan. The country cannot get rid of it’s problem overnight nor those problems would fade in coming five years but the wave of change would start from tomorrow if you vote for a responsible party and who knows after 10 to 15 years Pakistan would be a strong developed nation because of the decision you took on May 11, 2013!

Temperature and Precipitation in May

It was feared that due to frequent invasion of westerlies, Pakistan may be abandoned of the important heating trend but we saw that as soon as May started temperature started to rise. It is worth-mentioning the ‘true’ heat waves of summer are missing at the moment. High temperatures have been witnessed only in Sindh and Balochistan while Punjab is missing the heat waves due to flow of westerlies. The second heat wave (stronger than the first) is expected in the coming week in Sindh.

Factors – Outlook

*A weak Western trough ’05′ is over extreme north-eastern areas of Pakistan, it has broke the trend of high temperatures. Another Western trough ’06′ would come on May 9 night, it would follow the same path.

North Remembers – Dusty Shower possible

‘Dust storm can occur in Northern areas!’

Activity in the North; Tropical activity seen in Bay!

Since the coming WD ’06′ would be far away from the major cities of the northern areas of the country therefore most activity can take place in the Gilgit-Balistan province however dusty winds can occur on May 10 till May 12 in the extreme and adjoining northern areas including Peshawar and Islamabad with cloudy intervals. Temperatures can drop by 2°C to 3°C in Islamabad, Lahore, Peshawar, Multan, Bahawalpur, Faisalabad, Gujranwala and adjoining cities due to the presence of western winds from May 10 till May 12 after that temperature would again rise. During this period dust storm with drizzle/isolated shower can occur in the mentioned  and their adjoining areas while moderate rain with strong dust storm can occur in Azad Kashmir and adjoining Khyber Pakhtunkhwa.

South runs dry!

The Sindh province’s upper cities like Sukkur can experience dusty winds on May 10/May 11 while the temperatures would remain around 40°C till 42°C. A heat wave is expected in Sindh starting from May 12 excluding coastal areas, temperatures in upper cities can reach 45°C/47°C during that heat wave.

Karachi’s temperature could remain 34°C/36°C during the next coming days with fast winds, partly cloudy weather can also occur.

2013 Monsoon News

• Pre-monsoon brings flood to India and Bangladesh

• Bay of Bengal’s show a flop?

• Arabian sea to have it’s own show!

Factors – Outlook

*Low pressure is over southern Bay of Bengal, it could intensify into a cyclonic storm ‘Mahasen’ during the coming, a delay in its formation has occurred. No affect on Pakistan.

Pakistan Weather Portal (PWP) has mentioned the things expected in the rain season in its Monsoon Article - Part II.

Depression BOB 01 – Bay fails to throw a big show !?!

Low pressure has developed in the Bay – Behind Schedule

Till the end of this week there would be a depression/deep depression in the southern Bay of Bengal that could affect the eastern coast of India though earlier it was expected to become a strong cyclone and create havoc in the eastern coast but now it can develop into a weak cyclonic storm with pressure of 996/994 mbar.

The system could bring widespread heavy downpour to north-eastern India, Bangladesh and adjoining Burma. During this week, the low pressure/depression can drop around 400 mm rain in the Bay of Bengal!

India and Myanmar

Even before this low pressure, widespread Pre-monsoon downpour has hit North-eastern India, Bangladesh and Burma. Due to intense heating over central India, the onset of monsoon is expected early in India. 90 mm precipitation has occurred in the cities of Bangladesh that has flooded towns.

Arabian sea warming up for something?

During late May, there is a slight possibility for the formation of a depression that it likely to travel till central Arabian sea after that its future is disputed.

Poll of the Week

Pakistan Weather Portal (PWP) wants to know;

Heavy non-Monsoon rains in April in Karachi

The country especially the southern parts have seen one of the most unusual winter of all time. It would not be wrong to say that it was the most wettest winter for the southern areas as every month brought heavy downpour along with it. This unusual trend started from the month of December last year and continued till the month of April.

What was supposed to be dry, was wet!

Monsoon clouds hover over Pakistani city

Take the port city of Karachi for instance, the city mostly remains dry apart from the brief shower that occur in the winter season but unusually this year it rained heavily, it hailed, it thundered fiercely every month while the temperatures were low. The rains resembled as if it was a monsoon season. Following are the stats of the unusual rains in Karachi and it’s various areas;

• December 13, 2012: Early morning Heavy thunder downpour with gusty winds especially in southern parts. 32 mm rainfall recorded.
• December 15, 2012: Brief shower in the north. Traces reported.
• January 15: Drizzle at night in south-eastern areas. Traces reported.
• January 17: Light shower in North-western areas. Traces reported.
• February 4: Heavy thunder downpour  along with hail, rain occurred in the south-eastern parts while hail occurred in the northern areas. The highest rainfall was 32 mm.
• February 15: Thunder rainfall with hail, hail occurred in the western and central parts. A total of 14 mm rainfall was recorded.
• February 23: Drizzle occurred, traces were reported.
• March 6: Drizzle occurred in the North-western areas of the city.
• March 27: Heavy thunder downpour at night, the rain was intense in the southern areas of the city. A total of 32 mm rainfall was recorded.
• April 2: Rain with thunder/lightening along with dust storm occurred in the city at night. 13 mm rainfall was recorded, hail occurred in the north-eastern areas.
• April 8: Rain at times heavy with thunder occurred in the city, light showers occurred in the eastern areas. 28 mm rainfall was recorded.
• April 22: Very heavy thunder downpour occurred across the city with strong winds and hail. 41 mm rainfall was recorded.
• April 23: Drizzle occurred in the city. Traces were reported.
• April 24: Drizzle occurred in the city.

The average rainfall of Karachi from the month of December till April is only 27.7 mm however this time it got 192 mm rainfall. Karachi’s average monsoon rainfall from the month of June till September is 136.5 mm, so if those rains occurred in the monsoon season then we already have a near monsoon rain.

Home of Pakistani drought – Balochistan

Heavy torrential rainfall had lashed Makran coast during the past months including Gwadar causing the death of five people, heavy flooding occurred in Gwadar and Kech district where shops were submerged under storm water while several walls had collapsed. It had been said that 20 years old year record of hailstorm has been broken in north-western areas of Balochistan, the storm caused the death of 5 people.

The province of Punjab and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa received near normal winter/spring rains.

Will the upcoming monsoon season be affected?

Normally it is believed that wet winter season means a dry summer season but it is not necessary. In the 21st century that is 2003 and 2006, overall a wet winter season was seen across the country followed by a similar wet summer season. Still there is a high probability that monsoon season might be affected as the heating trend before the summer season is a must. The heating trend of 2013 started from the first week of May and temperatures returned to their normal position.  Lets see the year 2013 now!

Indian Ocean Dipole problem – Should it be watched?

Temperature continues to rise!

As mentioned in the Part-1,  Regional Institute for Climate Change (RIGC) at Tokyo, Japan has warned that a negative Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is developing that would become a resistance between the monsoon movement and could cause the monsoon to come to halt in August.

Pakistan Weather Portal (PWP) believes that temperatures are rising in both the western and eastern areas of Indian ocean therefore the situation is little complex but no cause of worry however monsoon going on short break is common during the season.

Sea temperatures rising and rising!

Probability of ENSO

Temperatures are higher in the Indian ocean as mentioned in the PWP’s article in early April which could favour any tropical activity in the both the basin that is Bay of Bengal and Arabian sea, temperatures are very high in the southern and south-western Bay of Bengal. Above 30°C have been recorded in the Bay of Bengal which could favour formation of a strong tropical cyclone during this week. Temperatures are rising in the Arabian sea as mentioned by PWP in early April, 29°C was the temperature recorded in south-eastern Arabian sea. Bay’s system could churn into a strong tropical cyclone.

Our View on the upcoming season

Pakistan Weather Portal (PWP) is issuing it’s monsoon forecast of 2013 on May 6, which is stated below;

“Monsoon 2013 would set in early this year in India due to the formation of a low pressure in Bay of Bengal, overall it could be normal on the wider scale in Pakistan and India due to the neutral ENSO conditions in the Pacific ocean till October. Pakistan can get monsoon rains during the first week of July. Westerlies and Easterlies interaction could lead to heavy flooding rainfall over the rivers of Punjab and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, westerlies could increase their presence in late May and June. Rains could be normal in southern areas while near normal in northern areas. North-eastern Punjab and Azad Kashmir can witness some frequent heavy downpour in the month of July. Slight possibility of pre-monsoon activity in Sindh and North-eastern Punjab only. However an event of isolated flash flooding/urban flooding (happens every year) can never be ruled out.”

Monsoon Special articles for 2013

You can read special monsoon article by Pakistan Weather Portal (PWP), here;

• Another Monsoon brewing for the same Sub-continent! - Part I
• Do we really need a Monsoon season? - Part II

TO BE CONTINUED….

Pakistan Weather Portal (PWP) urges it’s readers to vote for their respective parties in the upcoming elections. PWP will give special weather updates before the elections.

‘Introduction to the Monsoon season’

Jama Mosque as monsoon clouds burst over New Delhi

Another monsoon season is coming to Pakistan this year as always, the giant winds are slowly taking shape to once again cover India and then move straight towards Pakistan. The word “monsoon” is derived from Arabic, Hindi and Urdu words of mawsim (موسم) meaning weather, there is also some indications the word is derived from Dutch word of monsun. The Englishmen used to use this word to define a seasonal prevailing wind in the region blowing from the south-west between May and September and bringing heavy rainfalls to British India.

How do Monsoon form?

All India rainfall 2011 issued by the IMD

Before the monsoon season, the land and oceans start to heat up with the consequence that the air over the land warms faster and reaches a higher temperature than the air over the ocean. The hot air over the land tends to rise, creating an area of low pressure. This creates a steady wind blowing toward the land, bringing the moist near-surface air over the oceans with it, thus monsoon season begins.

A monsoon is traditionally defined as a seasonal reversal of wind direction which is accompanied by changes in precipitation. In Asia, the monsoon season runs from May to September, when Southern Hemisphere winds shift direction and blow north and west across the Equator into Asia, bringing moisture from the oceans they pass over on the way.

Threat from Negative Indian Ocean Dipole

The El-Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) have impact on the monsoon, it could be a negative or positive effect. In 2010, La Nina was one of the positive factors to have caused good monsoon across the Indian Subcontinent . La-Nina (late 2011 -2012) re-emerged late in November after one of the strongest La-Nina (2010- early 2011) in the weather history. Following are the conditions which could affect monsoon 2013;

• Neutral ENSO
• -IOD (Feared by the Japanese)

Before the strong La-Nina pattern, El-Nino (2009 – 2010) was dominating the world that transitional period between El-Nino and La-Nina was on the fastest in recent years in 2010. It was actually because of La-Nina that India and Pakistan saw a good monsoon in 2010 and 2011. In 2012 monsoon season, El-Nino conditions were developing but it was saved at the last moment by the Positive Indian Ocean Dipole. There is a strong possibility of -IOD developing in the month of July as the present conditions are favoring the negative development according to the Japanese Meteorologists.

El-Nino/La-Nina – South Oscillation

El-Nino and La-Nina in the month of June till September

Both these phenomena are famous for having irregularity, it is thought that they happen every 5 year respectively but this study is not supported by other scientist. Overall there are two types of this phenomena;

• El-Nino is a spanish word which means boy, it may also refer to a Christ child, because of the periodic warming in the Pacific near South America that happens around Christmas. It causes extreme weather (such as floods and droughts) in many regions of the world. It causes drought in India, Pakistan, Bangladesh and many countries of the world, while it causes wet conditions and floods in other part of the world. It has a deep effect on the Indian monsoon. It forms due to the warming of Pacific Ocean thus the number of typhoons are increased in Pacific ocean while Atlantic ocean usually becomes calm due to intense wind shear. El-Nino is also said to increase malaria disease in India.

Strong El-Nino

• 1997
• 2009

• La-Nina is a spanish word which means girl. La-Nina is the complete opposite of El-Nino. It causes wet conditions and floods in the Sub-continent while drought and dry weather over other parts of the world. It happens due to the cooling of Pacific ocean.

Strong La-Nina

• 1988
• 2010

The transformation of El-Nino in 2009 into La-Nina in 2010 was the quickest in recent years. It is also worth mentioning that both of them were strongest in their respective years and such quick change is very rare.

What is Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD)?

A positive Indian Ocean Dipole

Like ENSO, there are two types of Indian Ocean Dipoloe. IOD is an irregular phenomenon in which the western equatorial of the Indian Ocean becomes warmer while the eastern equatorial cooler. It affects the Sub continent, Australia, Indonesia and many other surrounding countries. There are two phases of Indian Ocean Dipole; 1. Positive IOD 2. Negative IOD

• Positive Indian Ocean Dipole (+IOD) causes sea temperatures to rise in the western Indian Ocean with heavy precipitation in Sub-continent while it makes the sea temperatures cooler in the eastern Indian Ocean with drought or very little to no precipitation in Australia and Indonesia.
• Negative Indian Ocean Dipole (-IOD) causes cooler sea temperatures in western Indian Ocean with no rainfall in the Sub-continent while eastern Indian Ocean becomes warmer with heavy precipitation in Australia and Indonesia.

Monsoon Special articles for 2013

You can read special monsoon article by Pakistan Weather Portal (PWP), here;

• Another Monsoon brewing for the same Sub-continent! - Part I
• Do we really need a monsoon season? - Part II

TO BE CONTINUED…….

 This article have been shared by Farjad Akmal from Karachi, Pakistan

Can u imagine a natural weather phenomena which occur on land can occur on sea !!!! Oh yes it can and it had and many countries like Australia and Canada had witnessed it on their coastal cities.But what is the name of that tornado ?

Water spout. What is a water spout ?

A waterspout is a column of cloud-filled wind rotating over a body of water.

Despite its name, a waterspout is not filled with water from the ocean or lake. A waterspout descends from a cumulus cloud. It does not “spout” from the water. The water inside a waterspout is formed by condensation in the cloud.

There are two major types of waterspouts: tornadic waterspouts and fair-weather waterspouts.

Tornadic waterspouts get their start as true tornadoes. Influenced by winds associated with severe thunderstorms, air rises and rotates on a vertical axis. Tornadic waterspouts are the most powerful and destructive type of waterspout.

Fair-weather waterspouts, however, are much more common. Fair-weather waterspouts are rarely dangerous. The clouds from which they descend are not fast-moving, so fair-weather waterspouts are often static. Fair-weather waterspouts are associated with developing storm systems, but not storms themselves.

They have struck in many countries.Lets take a look on history …

On May 1931 a water spout formed in bay of bengal and cause storm over the entire eastern and southern coast of India and Bangladesh

1969 May 27
Two people on Boca Grande Key, Florida, saw the funnel of a waterspout descending from the cloud and coming towards them. They held on to the concrete pillars of a shelter as the spout passed over. The shelter was uprooted with its concrete foundations and carried 60 feet. The two observers were dropped into trees and escaped injury.

1970 September 11
A waterspout in the Gulf of Venice near Santa Elena island lifted and sank a steam yacht. 36 of the 60 passengers lost their lives. The waterspout came ashore at Iésolo and destroyed a camp site. 11 people were killed and several hundred injured.

Can a water spout formed in arabian sea or hit Pakistan ? Chances are extremly low but an unusal event can take place anywhere and some theroy suggest that monsoon and trade windis can cause some disturbance and giving birth to a Water spout!!!
BUT ONLY ALLAH KNOWS BEST

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In the month of April, Pakistan Weather Portal (PWP) made a total of eight articles;

1. Flood hits Balochistan – Media silent!
2. Lunar Eclipse to make its entrance tonight!
3. Another Earthquake hits Pakistan including Islamabad!
4. Earthquake hits Pakistan including Karachi!!
5. A Cyclone is coming to Pakistan this year!
6. Pakistan Weather Update (April 4 – April 18)
7. The Last Update – Beware of the Gushing Waters, Pakistan!
8. Pakistan Weather Portal (PWP) – March 2013 in Review!

Article of the Month

A Cyclone is coming to Pakistan this year! - Biggest and most hyped article of PWP in 2013!