What did not pour – would pour now!
Heavy rainfall across the country?
Monsoon to gain peak before ending!
The country has entered the month of September which is usually remembered as the month in which the monsoon starts to withdraw from the sub-continent. Heavy rainfall in September is quite uncommon in the western sub-continent especially Pakistan where usually the intensity of rains start to weaken during the first half of September. However since last two years that is 2010 and 2011, the country has observed widespread rainfall in this month including the dry areas like Sindh and south Punjab, it seems as if 2012 will also join those ranks as widespread rainfall is expected in the country in the month of September.
Factors – Present Conditions
*Western trough ’20’ present over the northern areas, likely to persist till this week.
*Low pressure has formed in the Bay of Bengal and adjoining central-eastern coast of India.
*Upper air cyclonic circulations present over northern Arabian sea and adjoining Gujarat and Sindh.
Westerlies are being observed to increase their presence over the northern parts of the country while easterlies would flow from India to central and southern parts of Pakistan this week.
Latest condition of the ‘Dust Cloud’
“Green signal for rain!”
The atmoshperic rain blocking conditions that had gripped the country since the beginning of the monsoon has started to dissipate over many parts of the country, although such conditions dissipated over the northern areas in August during the ninth spell which resulted in widespread heavy rainfall there but central and southern parts had remained under its grip till now however latest charts indicate that the atmospheric rain-blocking cloud has started weakening hence giving a green signal to the monsoon moisture over India to move into Pakistan freely which would result in heavy precipitation over the country. Sindh, north-eastern Balochistan and south Punjab are also now free of these rain-blocking conditions which could experience some heavy rainfall. However the sad part is that much of Balochistan including Gwadar is still under the grip of this condition. Overall the situation has improved.
Pakistan Weather Portal (PWP)’s forecast
“Notice: This is the forecast from Pakistan Weather Portal (PWP), we are 70% confident with this prediction. There will be slight variations in our forecast as certain meteorological factors develop and fade as time passes by and these factors are too isolated to be noticed on numerical charts or models. According to various meteorological parameters this forecast has been made.”
- The Article would be updated if necessary!
Pakistan Weather Portal (PWP) successfully predicted the onset of all monsoon spells in northern and central parts of the country while PWP experienced difficulty in predicting few spells in Sindh. Overall PWP’s performance had been much better than last year.
As of 8:00 pm PKT September 3, Various models, numerical charts and other meteorological parameters observed by PWP for the track of low pressure indicates that;
*The upper air cyclonic circulations over north-west Bay of Bengal would intensify into a low pressure on September 3 and move rapidly inland. On September 5/September 6, it could be over eastern Rajasthan and adjoining area. During the same time, it could have interaction with the upper air cyclonic circulations in the Arabian sea causing some thunderstorms to form near Gujarat and adjoining Sindh. The weather system at the moment is not showing a mature track however it might move westwards/WNW. The low pressure could also further intensify during its life time. The exact date of dissipation varies from model to model.
Tenth monsoon spell (September 2 – September )
“Warning: There are 45% chance of scattered heavy downpours over west-north-western Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and adjoining Punjab, while few areas of north-eastern Punjab as well middle of this week. Strong thunderclouds could form there that has the potential to drop more than 100 mm there due to the interaction of western and eastern winds. Local flooding could occur in these areas on September 5/September 6.“
The tenth spell that in the northern half started from September 2 has brought scattered moderate downpours to parts of northern Punjab and adjoining areas, the rainfall that was recorded since September 2 is given below;
- Islamabad got 183 mm.
- Kamra got 59 mm.
Islamabad city has already crossed the monthly average of September with just one wave of tenth spell as 161 mm rainfall occurred on September 2 night/September 3 morning.
More rain is likely in the capital as heavy downpours could occur during this week. The tenth spell would continue till five to six days with few intervals. Rain will be accompanied by thunder/lightning and strong winds (56 km/h).
Mercury is expected in Islamabad;
- 30°C to 33 °C in Islamabad.
In Northern Punjab: Lahore, Faisalabad, Murree, Gujranwal, Rawalpindi, Sargodha, Sialkot and other adjoining cities. The tenth spell of monsoon would start from September 3 night/September 4. Rainfall will be isolated heavy in intensity while north-eastern parts could (45%) get scattered heavy downpour. Rain will be accompained by thunder and fast winds.
Following is the temperature forecast for Northern Punjab;
- 33 °C to 37 °C in Lahore.
- 35°C to 39 °C in Faisalabad.
- 26°C to 31°C in Murree.
Seventh monsoon spell
In Southern Punjab: Bahawalpur, Bahawalnagar, Multan, Rahim Yar Khan, D. G. Khan and other adjoining cities. There are chances of rainfall on September 4 night as sixth spell would be nearby the area. There is some possibility of isolated heavy rainfall in south-eastern and western parts of south Punjab during this week, more over the rainfall would be moderate in intensity. Hence PWP maintains the chance of seventh spell hitting south Punjab to ‘extremely high’.
In Southern Punjab, temperatures will be higher than Northern Punjab;
- 33 °C to 39°C in Multan.
- 35 °C to 38 °C in Bahawalpur.
Sixth monsoon spell
“Warning: There are 25% chance of isolated to scattered heavy downpours over south-eastern parts of Sindh and adjoining coastal parts, while few areas of upper Sindh as well middle of this week. There is a slight possibility that rainfall exceeding 100 mm would fall in northern Arabian sea.”
In Upper Sindh: Sukkur, Larkana, Jacobabad, Kashmore, Nawabshah and other adjoining cities. From September 4/September 5, rainfall with thunder/lightning and fast winds could occur in upper Sindh. There is also a possibility 25% of heavy downpour during this week. PWP maintains the chance of sixth monsoon spell across Sindh to ‘extremely high’.
Following is the range of temperatures expected in this part.
- 37 °C to 40 °C in Sukkur.
- 36 °C to 39 °C also in Larkana.
- 35 °C to 38 °C in Nawabshah.
In South-eastern Sindh: Mirpur khas, Umerkot, Tharparkar, Badin and Hyderabad. The sixth monsoon spell could cause rainfall with thunder/lightning and fast winds with 25% chance of isolated to scattered heavy downpour during this week. The rains would start from September 4.
Temperatures are mostly stationary in this part due to absence of heat waves and rains.
- 35 °C to 38 °C in Hyderabad.
In coastal Sindh: Karachi, Thatta, Keti, Shah Bandar and other coastal localities. The sixth monsoon spell could cause rainfall with thunder/lightning and fast winds with 25% chance of isolated to scattered heavy downpour during this week including Karachi especially on September 5/September 6 till this week.
Due to frequent cloud over and fast winds the mercury in Karachi and other coastal cities has remained unchanged since July 1;
- 31 °C to 36°C in Karachi.
Monsoon deaths toll
29 deaths have occurred since August 27 mainly in the northern areas, keeping the intensity of fresh monsoon spell in mind there is fear that the death toll would easily rise, PWP advises people not to go on rooftops during the time of thunderstorms and strong winds.
Monsoon to withdraw soon!
It must be noted that another spell might occur in northern areas before the monsoon starts to withdraw from the country during the third week of September, chances of another spell is slim at the moment in south Punjab and Sindh.
Poll of the week
Pakistan Weather Portal (PWP) wants to know that which city will be the all monsoon toppers, your vote is necessary;