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What did not pour – would pour now!
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Heavy rainfall across the country?
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Monsoon to gain peak before ending!
The country has entered the month of September which is usually remembered as the month in which the monsoon starts to withdraw from the sub-continent. Heavy rainfall in September is quite uncommon in the western sub-continent especially Pakistan where usually the intensity of rains start to weaken during the first half of September. However since last two years that is 2010 and 2011, the country has observed widespread rainfall in this month including the dry areas like Sindh and south Punjab, it seems as if 2012 will also join those ranks as widespread rainfall is expected in the country in the month of September.
Factors – Present Conditions
*Western trough ’20’ present over the northern areas, likely to persist till this week.
*Low pressure has formed in the Bay of Bengal and adjoining central-eastern coast of India.
*Upper air cyclonic circulations present over northern Arabian sea and adjoining Gujarat and Sindh.
Westerlies are being observed to increase their presence over the northern parts of the country while easterlies would flow from India to central and southern parts of Pakistan this week.
Latest condition of the ‘Dust Cloud’
“Green signal for rain!”
The atmoshperic rain blocking conditions that had gripped the country since the beginning of the monsoon has started to dissipate over many parts of the country, although such conditions dissipated over the northern areas in August during the ninth spell which resulted in widespread heavy rainfall there but central and southern parts had remained under its grip till now however latest charts indicate that the atmospheric rain-blocking cloud has started weakening hence giving a green signal to the monsoon moisture over India to move into Pakistan freely which would result in heavy precipitation over the country. Sindh, north-eastern Balochistan and south Punjab are also now free of these rain-blocking conditions which could experience some heavy rainfall. However the sad part is that much of Balochistan including Gwadar is still under the grip of this condition. Overall the situation has improved.
Pakistan Weather Portal (PWP)’s forecast
“Notice: This is the forecast from Pakistan Weather Portal (PWP), we are 70% confident with this prediction. There will be slight variations in our forecast as certain meteorological factors develop and fade as time passes by and these factors are too isolated to be noticed on numerical charts or models. According to various meteorological parameters this forecast has been made.”
- The Article would be updated if necessary!
Pakistan Weather Portal (PWP) successfully predicted the onset of all monsoon spells in northern and central parts of the country while PWP experienced difficulty in predicting few spells in Sindh. Overall PWP’s performance had been much better than last year.
As of 8:00 pm PKT September 3, Various models, numerical charts and other meteorological parameters observed by PWP for the track of low pressure indicates that;
*The upper air cyclonic circulations over north-west Bay of Bengal would intensify into a low pressure on September 3 and move rapidly inland. On September 5/September 6, it could be over eastern Rajasthan and adjoining area. During the same time, it could have interaction with the upper air cyclonic circulations in the Arabian sea causing some thunderstorms to form near Gujarat and adjoining Sindh. The weather system at the moment is not showing a mature track however it might move westwards/WNW. The low pressure could also further intensify during its life time. The exact date of dissipation varies from model to model.
Tenth monsoon spell (September 2 – September )
“Warning: There are 45% chance of scattered heavy downpours over west-north-western Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and adjoining Punjab, while few areas of north-eastern Punjab as well middle of this week. Strong thunderclouds could form there that has the potential to drop more than 100 mm there due to the interaction of western and eastern winds. Local flooding could occur in these areas on September 5/September 6.“
The tenth spell that in the northern half started from September 2 has brought scattered moderate downpours to parts of northern Punjab and adjoining areas, the rainfall that was recorded since September 2 is given below;
- Islamabad got 183 mm.
- Kamra got 59 mm.
Islamabad city has already crossed the monthly average of September with just one wave of tenth spell as 161 mm rainfall occurred on September 2 night/September 3 morning.
Islamabad
More rain is likely in the capital as heavy downpours could occur during this week. The tenth spell would continue till five to six days with few intervals. Rain will be accompanied by thunder/lightning and strong winds (56 km/h).
Mercury is expected in Islamabad;
- 30°C to 33 °C in Islamabad.
Punjab
In Northern Punjab: Lahore, Faisalabad, Murree, Gujranwal, Rawalpindi, Sargodha, Sialkot and other adjoining cities. The tenth spell of monsoon would start from September 3 night/September 4. Rainfall will be isolated heavy in intensity while north-eastern parts could (45%) get scattered heavy downpour. Rain will be accompained by thunder and fast winds.
Following is the temperature forecast for Northern Punjab;
- 33 °C to 37 °C in Lahore.
- 35°C to 39 °C in Faisalabad.
- 26°C to 31°C in Murree.
Seventh monsoon spell
In Southern Punjab: Bahawalpur, Bahawalnagar, Multan, Rahim Yar Khan, D. G. Khan and other adjoining cities. There are chances of rainfall on September 4 night as sixth spell would be nearby the area. There is some possibility of isolated heavy rainfall in south-eastern and western parts of south Punjab during this week, more over the rainfall would be moderate in intensity. Hence PWP maintains the chance of seventh spell hitting south Punjab to ‘extremely high’.
In Southern Punjab, temperatures will be higher than Northern Punjab;
- 33 °C to 39°C in Multan.
- 35 °C to 38 °C in Bahawalpur.
Sixth monsoon spell
“Warning: There are 25% chance of isolated to scattered heavy downpours over south-eastern parts of Sindh and adjoining coastal parts, while few areas of upper Sindh as well middle of this week. There is a slight possibility that rainfall exceeding 100 mm would fall in northern Arabian sea.”
Sindh
In Upper Sindh: Sukkur, Larkana, Jacobabad, Kashmore, Nawabshah and other adjoining cities. From September 4/September 5, rainfall with thunder/lightning and fast winds could occur in upper Sindh. There is also a possibility 25% of heavy downpour during this week. PWP maintains the chance of sixth monsoon spell across Sindh to ‘extremely high’.
Following is the range of temperatures expected in this part.
- 37 °C to 40 °C in Sukkur.
- 36 °C to 39 °C also in Larkana.
- 35 °C to 38 °C in Nawabshah.
In South-eastern Sindh: Mirpur khas, Umerkot, Tharparkar, Badin and Hyderabad. The sixth monsoon spell could cause rainfall with thunder/lightning and fast winds with 25% chance of isolated to scattered heavy downpour during this week. The rains would start from September 4.
Temperatures are mostly stationary in this part due to absence of heat waves and rains.
- 35 °C to 38 °C in Hyderabad.
In coastal Sindh: Karachi, Thatta, Keti, Shah Bandar and other coastal localities. The sixth monsoon spell could cause rainfall with thunder/lightning and fast winds with 25% chance of isolated to scattered heavy downpour during this week including Karachi especially on September 5/September 6 till this week.
Due to frequent cloud over and fast winds the mercury in Karachi and other coastal cities has remained unchanged since July 1;
- 31 °C to 36°C in Karachi.
Monsoon deaths toll
29 deaths have occurred since August 27 mainly in the northern areas, keeping the intensity of fresh monsoon spell in mind there is fear that the death toll would easily rise, PWP advises people not to go on rooftops during the time of thunderstorms and strong winds.
Monsoon to withdraw soon!
It must be noted that another spell might occur in northern areas before the monsoon starts to withdraw from the country during the third week of September, chances of another spell is slim at the moment in south Punjab and Sindh.
Poll of the week
Pakistan Weather Portal (PWP) wants to know that which city will be the all monsoon toppers, your vote is necessary;
Pakistan Weather Portal 
GFS model sh0wing very heavy rain in Karachi today and tomorrow :
http://www.pmd.gov.pk/rnd/rndweb/rnd_new/hrm/gfs_files/precipitation.htm
Latest Weather Advisory :
http://www.pmd.gov.pk/latest%20news/Latest%20News.html
These guys are predicting 130mm rain in Karachi on Monday 😀
http://www.timeanddate.com/weather/pakistan/karachi/ext
http://www.timeanddate.com/weather/pakistan/karachi
http://www.intellicast.com/Local/Weather.aspx?location=PKXX0008
http://www.pmd.gov.pk/latest%20news/Latest%20News.html
“Widespread rains with heavy falls at times very heavy are expected in Sindh, ”
Babar Bhai what is your opinion.
Possible…
“Chances of TORRENTIAL RAINS in Karachi from tonight” -NDMA
What do u say ?
Yes they said that, there are chances of heavy downpour but it all depends upon the movement of the thunderclouds, which are away from the city..
@KM : Thunder clouds are all over Sindh, why aren’t thunderclouds c0ming to Karachi ? :S There are only altocumulus clouds in the city. WTH :@
There are clouds over the city but the rainy part is over south-eastern which could start losing its strength after some hours.. however at the moment it has expanded..
REply bro reply :S
Means there won’t be any rains in Karachi ?
There will be…
@KM : Heavy lightning activity in the East.
Thats good, thunderstorm’s western side is expanding..
Light rain started but the thunderclouds are still far away. I can tell that by seeing the lightning.
Wind direction changed from Sw to NW and humidity rose from 53% to 70% and it’s hot even in the night. The temperature is 30C.
Thunder + Thick Droplets 😀
Moderate rain !
Heavy rain !!!!
Great!!!!!!!!1
which part of khi is receiving heavy rain now?
HI.
i want to ask that local met office is predicting it.but that is not the case with international forecasts.what is your say?
its moderate now in gulshan
someone please help me. i want to know whether my comments are available or not.it says your comment is awaiting moderation.what does that mean.
Your comments are bieng shown.
“Torrential rains likely to start in Karachi and Hyderabad from tonight”
-Arif Mahmood
(D.G PMD)
Heavy rain started in Karachi and Hyderabad at the exact same time.
What a coincidence han ? 😀
Its mostly a stable rain…its nice to see rain both in Karachi and Hyderabad..
Moderate – heavy rain here 🙂
Tarim yar no rain here in nawabshah, is there any prediction for nawabshah
It should be raining in Nawabshah right now.
i would like to know if this is the last monsoon spell lashing sindh?
as far as this spell is considered it has been the fifth continuous day of rain here in khi.but apart from wednesday karachi hardly saw widespread heavy showers
Thick black clouds have covered the sky and Drizzle starts in nawabshah,also gusty winds but no lightning and thundering!
Nice to see that.you can see the latest satellite pics to see the intensity of clouds.
No raining since last night in my area (Kunri/Umerkot).
Babir bhai i am waiting for your new article and latest predictions. Thanks for your hard work.
Follow the Monsoon of Pakistan article, it gives short updates..
Sir iam astonished that the system gave 365mm to jacobbad which is totally unbeleviable..you said chances of heavy downpour are in SE and coastal sindh but rains deluged the upper sindh,if the system has weakned than how the system is dumping record rains,,and tell us that are there any chances of rain in nawabshah,because no rainfall here last day,and gusty winds are here since last night
Sorry! It was 305 mm in jacoabad,i made a mistake
The expected rain in Karachi was 275 mm, it has now dropped to 14 mm.
I myself am astonish to see 305 mm rainfall in that city. The thunderstorm was expected to move from SE Sindh to coastal Sindh but it moved from SE Sindh to upper Sindh, the rain in SE Sindh was extremely less than upper Sindh.
A very disappointing monsoon season. Very sad !
Now I’ll visit ur blog next year. Allah Hafiz.
Whether you visit tomorrow or next year, I must say one thing that Karachi weather is always disappointing. In Pakistan one by one you will hear heavy downpours news for every city but Karachi number will never come. In Pakistan except Karachi every city and village areas gets heavy to heavy downpours and many areas gets downpours in winter also. Karachi rains is nothing now even infront of South Eastern or Upper Sindh. How Unlucky Karachi is?
For the first time, I agree with you.
Today there are chances again.. enjoy these rains because its going to be sunny for a long time after these days..
@ K.M, Whether you agree or not we have even no hope of Rains in Karachi next year like Jacoabad or Islamabad or Lahore. Rains either die out while reaching to Karachi or change its Path OR Loose much of its strength while coming to Karachi. WTH IS THIS? WTH?
😀
We also had record breaking rains in 2009..remember? 🙂
@KM : What rains han ? I don’t see any kind of even a small thunderstorm near Karachi.
Buddy it takes time for thunderclouds to form, they are once again forming over upper Sindh, hopefully they should pop up near Karachi too..
Why does it always happen to this damn city ? It was supposed to be raining heavily right now, like Jocababad. The system was supposed to come here from SE Sindh. Why always bad luck for us ? What have we done to deserve this kind of weather ? It was supposed to raining here. This city is cursed :@
Damn city :@ That’s it ! I’m through with this monsoon/rain/thunderstorm enthusiasm.
Yes, its a dry city!!
A rain lover, lives in a city where it barely rains !
You should move to murree its always raining here xD
Sir thunderclouds in upper sindh are not coming to us why?first 2 days of spell it rained good in central sindh after intensity is much reduced and even only 1mm last day,today yet there is no thunderstorm,is it coming in few hours??
Thunderclouds forming over upper Sindh, they won’t pop up over Karachi. We’re not that lucky Babar bhai. If it were to rain here then it would’ve rained heavily till now. There won’t be any heavy rain in Karachi now, i guarantee it.
Poor peaple of Karachi, ONCE AGAIN ! wait for next year, LIKE ALWAYS.
Pechle saal achi bharish huwi thi bhaio is saal to el nino ki waja se scene hogya sad monsoon 😦
http://wx.hamweather.com/?pands=karachi wow…this website is predicting about 60 mm of rain today…but you guys know that all of these weather website are poor to predict that..:P
babar bhai when this system of rain weaken fron uper sindh speacially
from tonight..
Hi,Babar, How are you well a very disappointing monsoon season for Karachi. Hope Karachi gets some good rains in next couple of days other wise will have to wait till next year. Do you think there is a possibility of good rain in karachi now???? well i would say we all should pray for some good rains cause anything can happen any time mother nature can take turn anytime like we are witnessing these days.
Hey Shahbaz – It has been a pathetic monsoon year for Karachi but atleast we got some rainfall since past few days. There are chances of some rainfall during the mid-night if that misses then there are only chances of drizzle/isolated shower.
km,still heavy rains expected in sukkur?
The thunderstorm is dissipating, rain did occur in Sukkur few hours back, now its intensity is decreasing..
Hi,Babar well Karachi got some rain today it was heavy but for a short time period i hope that Karachi will now get a fair share from this season as some forecasts are showing rains till the end of this week or at least for another couple of days. Some cloud formation is taking place North North west of Karachi I think it will rain in the night. Babar what is your opinion on these forecasts.
Hey Shahbaz – I think it was the heaviest rain in Karachi of 2012 atleast in my area, the thunder and lightning was so strong as if there were blast. There are indeed chances of more rain in the city.
babar bhai what is situation of sindh wheather in coming days speacially in sukkur.
K.m met office has predicted rains on thrusday and friday,what you say about that and any chance of shower in central sindh tommorow? And we got a amazing shower and till drizzle is falling
Thunderclouds are forming..there are chances of more rainfall till few days..
I think there are high chances of rain in Karachi today as well as the wind isn’t blowing at all and there are smoke conditions in the city. Humidity is 90%
tarim u ritee boht hubs hai yha central sindh me b even nwabsha heavy or li8 rain continue he abhi tak
kuch dair phly karachi university me bht tiet rain hui ha zameen pani pani hugya bt babar bai met offie walo ne nai btaya k barish hugi aj or gulshan disco pe barish nai hui
When will the next spell effect north punjab and what would be its intensity?
Cumulonimbus clouds towering from NE, E and SE.
Very heavy rain here.
RAIN LOVERS AT A WRONG PLACE……….very sad
wait wait wait for next monsoon…..seems long way ahead……got to feel for such rain lovers in karachi/sindh.
Very heavy thunder activity here :S
Extremely heavy rain :s
very heavy rain lasted for 1.5 hours. Our area is totally flooded 😀
I can see more thunderclouds on their way.
Very dangerous THUNDERCLOUDS coming from SE.
I can see Cloud-To-Cloud lightning.
Hey Wait a minute ! Am I the only one here lucky enough without a power outage ?
are there chances of more rain tonight?
Chances of rain till tomorrow night.
Thunderstorms forming near karachi !
Assalam o alaikum
Babar bhai plz list the 5 most rainy cities(throughout the year) of Pakistan in descending order starting from the most rainy city
Thanks
Walikum assalam – Yes I would do that after monsoon ends in other parts of the country.
Babar bhai will there be any rains in october, november and december in north punjab ? i know we cant predict now but any guess/idea considering the current prevailing conditions?
Thanks
North Punjab gets rain almost in every month though intensity varies from those westerlies.
Latest Meteorological analysis suggests that widespread thunderstorm/rain with isolated heavy to very heavy rainfall, at times extremely heavy falls (possibility of Hailstorm at few places) is expected over the upper catchments of Rivers Ravi ,Chenab & Jhelum alongwith North-Northeast Punjab (Lahore,Gujranwala,Faisalabad,Sargodha & Rawalpindi divisions).Rivers Chenab & Jhelum are likely to cross High Flood Situation after 36-hours. FORECASTED BY FFD……………….
Any such possibility in your forecast?
Latest Meteorological analysis suggests that widespread thunderstorm/rain with isolated heavy to very heavy rainfall, at times EXTREMELY heavy falls (possibility of Hailstorm at few places) is expected over the upper catchments of Rivers Ravi ,Chenab & Jhelum alongwith North-Northeast Punjab (Lahore,Gujranwala,Faisalabad,Sargodha & Rawalpindi divisions).Rivers Chenab & Jhelum are likely to cross High Flood Situation after 36-hours. AS FORECASTED BY FFD…….
Any such possibility in your forecast?
The western winds are intensifying that could result in some heavy downpour, viewing the charts, I have observed the heaviest rain could occur over northern Punjab and Azad Kashmir with strong winds. This is a more western rain than eastern one!
Constant heavy rain from morning 8am in murree and islamabad….For how long is this system going to last? Its raining now too with sound of thunder echoing here in the hills…Is there more rain to come tonight/tommorrow?
And also i have never seen such heavy rains in mid September. Whats causing this? Usually western disturbances aren’t that strong except winters. Is the western disturbance being intensified because of the monsoonal moisture or is this system of rains only because of a pretty strong western disturbance? From the satellite image there are no clouds towards the east from where the monsoonal rains come from.
Its a strong western disturbance, it has received soil moisture as well. It would ease by tonight/tomorrow morning.
So will you count this rain in the monsoon of 2012 in the records?
Yes it would be counted…