Very Active June in Pak and India
Heavy pre-monsoon expected!
Rains in Sindh, Punjab, Khyber, Kashmir
Go below for new updates issued on June 16
June is mostly considered a hot month for Pakistan but in the end pre-monsoon activity can start in some parts of the country however this year the pre-monsoon activity started early in the country as first monsoonal activity occurred in South-eastern parts of Sindh on June 4, early than last many monsoon season. PWP had mentioned on June 4 the upcoming scattered to widespread pre-monsoon rainfall in the month of June. In Monsoon II article published on May 6, PWP mentioned the upcoming chances of pre-monsoon activity in Sindh and some parts of Punjab in June. In Monsoon V published on June 7, PWP mentioned that monsoon onset could happen in the country especially the northern areas during last weeks of June/first week of July.
Factors – Present Conditions
*Western trough ’10′ is coming to the northern areas of the country on June 12 or June 13.
*Upper air cyclonic circulations present over north-eastern Arabian sea and adjoining Gujarat and Sindh, now lies over Guajrat and adjoining Sindh coast, likely to persist till few days.
*A fresh upper air cyclonic circulation formed in the Bay of Bengal, in 24 to 36 hours it may intensify into a low pressure. It may move towards central India.
Latest condition of the ‘Dust Cloud’
The atmoshperic rain blocking conditions that has been a much disappointed in the year 2012. According to the latest charts, the dust cloud will disappear from the northern and central areas of the country that can only rain bearing clouds if they form to move into the country easily though the southern areas will remain under the grip of weak to moderate dust clouds. If comparing to 2011 and 2012, the dust cloud remained over the country in the month of June but this year it is in weaker form in June. Overall the situation has improved.
Pakistan Weather Portal (PWP)’s forecast
“Notice: This is the forecast from Pakistan Weather Portal (PWP), we are 85% confident with this prediction. There will be slight variations in our forecast as certain meteorological factors develop and fade as time passes by and these factors are too isolated to be noticed on numerical charts or models. According to various meteorological parameters this forecast has been made.”
- The Article would be updated on June 16!
Pakistan Weather Portal (PWP) successfully predicted the onset of the pre-monsoon spells in the country as PWP’s pre-monsoon forecast was around June 14 (+2,-2 day error) and the rains will occur around this time frame. Overall PWP’s performance had been much better than last year in terms of pre-monsoon. On June 10 (June 9 in North), PWP upgraded the chances of pre-monsoon in the north, central and southern parts of the country to ‘extremely high’
As of 6:00 pm PKT June 11, Various models, numerical charts and other meteorological parameters observed by PWP for the track of developing weather systems are shown as;
*The upper air cyclonic circulations over north-eastern Arabian sea now over Gujarat and adjoining Sindh, it will persist till few days. Another Circulation from Bay of Bengal can reach lower central India on June 14 and it could intensify once again into a low pressure. Between June 15/June 16, it will be over Gujarat and adjoining coastal Sindh and absorb the existing moisture from Arabian sea’s circulation, come strong thunderstorms can cross into southern Pakistan even Karachi. Late June 18, it will over the Northern Arabian sea as a insignificant system. Another possibility of this system it that as it reaches central India, it will move towards north-western India and adjoining Pakistan.
We have to wait at least till two days to get a clear picture on the Bay of Bengal’s much anticipated system.
First Pre-Monsoon Spell
“Alert: North-eastern areas of Punjab (Lahore, Gujranwala, Jhelum, Sialkot and other adjoining cities can experience heavy rainfall to very heavy rainfall between June 13/June 15). During this period rain can occur in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa as well including Peshawar due to the interaction with western winds which could result in heavy downpour there as well.”
Rain at times heavy can occur in capital from June 11 night till the end of the week with intervals. Rain will be accompanied by thunder/lightning and strong winds (>56 km/h).
Mercury is expected in Islamabad;
- 31°C to 37 °C in Islamabad, variation expected during the first days.
Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and Balochistan
Rain at times heavy can with strong winds (>56 km/h)occur in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa as well including Peshawar due to the interaction with western winds from June 13/June 14, south Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and adjoining Balochistan can experience also experience rain. The provincial capital of Balochistan Quetta would remain dry with partly/mostly cloudy skies on June 13 and June 14.
Following are the temperature expected;
- 34°C to 39 °C Peshawar.
- 32°C to 36°C Quetta.
In Northern Punjab: Lahore, Faisalabad, Murree, Gujranwala, Rawalpindi, Sargodha, Sialkot, Faisalabad and other adjoining cities. Rain at times scattered heavy (very heavy in NE parts of Punjab) likely from June 12/June 13 though some rain has occurred on June 11. Rain will be accompanied by thunder/lightning and fast to strong winds (>56 km/h).
Following is the temperature forecast for Northern Punjab;
- 33 °C to 37 °C in Lahore.
- 35°C to 41 °C in Faisalabad.
- 26°C to 31°C in Murree.
In Southern Punjab: Bahawalpur, Bahawalnagar, Multan, Rahim Yar Khan, D. G. Khan and other adjoining cities. From June 13/June 14 rain with thunder/lightning can occur during this week in the eastern areas of the province, there are more chances of isolated heavy falls in Bahawalnagar districts.
In Southern Punjab, temperatures will be higher than Northern Punjab;
- 36 °C to 42°C in Multan.
- 37 °C to 43 °C in Bahawalpur.
In Upper Sindh: Sukkur, Larkana, Jacobabad, Kashmore, Nawabshah and other adjoining cities. From June 13/June 14 rain with scatterred moderate falls could occur in upper Sindh with thunder/lightning.
Following is the range of temperatures expected in this part.
- 39°C to 44 °C in Sukkur.
- 40°C to 45 °C in Larkana.
- 42°C to 46 °C in Nawabshah.
In South-eastern Sindh: Mirpur khas, Umerkot, Tharparkar, Badin and Hyderabad. From June 12/June 13, rain with thunder/lightning can occur in this part (chances of isolated heavy falls in Mirpur Khas, Tharparkar and Badin districts).
Temperatures are mostly stationary in this part due to absence of heat waves and rains.
- 35 °C to 40 °C in Hyderabad.
In coastal Sindh: Karachi, Thatta, Keti, Shah Bandar and other coastal localities. From June 13/June 14 (June 12 in Thatta districts), rain with thunder/lightning along with fast winds (chances of isolated heavy falls in Thatta).
Karachi has been under a grip of hot winds since past week due to the formation of a circulation in the Arabian sea.
- 36 °C to 40°C in Karachi.
India drenched by Monsoon
With each day passing by, the monsoon is quickly advancing into the country and according to the Indian Meteorological Department (IMD), monsoon is 12% above normal in the country while India would be covered by monsoon by the end of June.
In other news, stormy conditions have killed 40 people in Sri Lanka. Each year thousands of people are displaced in the Sub-continent due to the monsoon season.
Pakistan Weather Update & Monsoon Alert (June 16 – June 25)
Pre-monsoon activity coming to an end?
Lahore’s wet spell ends!
The pre-monsoon activity that started from June 11 would end on June 18 morning in the country. As forecasted by PWP since June 9 that pre-monsoon might hit the country from June 14 (-2, +2 day error), it happened with -2 day error. From June 9, PWP had predicted in the Monsoon of Pakistan update that very heavy rainfall is possible in the north-eastern areas of Punjab between June 13 and June 15. Between June 14/June 15, very heavy rainfall about 102 mm lashed Lahore.
- 16 people have lost their lives during the pre-monsoon activity in Pakistan
Pre-monsoon activity was also observed in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, Sindh and South Punjab. Overall the performance of pre-monsoon in the month of June has been normal to above normal in the country.
Monsoon arrival in Pakistan?
Monsoon can hit the country especially the northern areas of the country during the last week of June or first week of July as per PWP. Pakistan’s National Meteorological Department believes that the onset could happen during the first week of July.
However as per the Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) the monsoon has covered the entire sub-continent on June 16, a month ahead.
Northern areas – After very heavy rainfall, dry weather coming!
Mostly dry weather is expected in Punjab including Islamabad and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa as the pre-monsoon activity that started from June 11, weakened significantly on June 15 night though it will end on June 17. On June 16/June 17, north-eastern areas of Punjab can experience isolated rain with thunder/lightning. From June 18, mostly dry weather is expected till many days. Western winds can dominate Khyber Pakhtunkhwa while there can be few passing clouds (slight chances of drizzle/isolated shower) over northern and north-eastern Punjab due to thundercloud formation over India’s Punjab and Haryana, which would not be frequent.
Temperatures are going to be calm till the middle of this week and after that a increase would start taking place. Overall long dry conditions expected!
Central areas – Dry weather returning!
Mostly dry weather expected in the South Punjab as well. Some clouds can occur over eastern parts especially Bahawalnagar district.
Southern areas – Another short and weak pre-monsoon activity – Dry weather coming!
Another pre-monsoon spell can start in Sindh from June 16 though this spell is weak when compared to the previous one (which was also weak). PWP forecasted this spell on June 12 update at ‘extremely poor’. On June 15, PWP upgraded it from ‘very poor’ to ‘poor’ and on June 16, PWP upgrades it to ‘moderate’. This spell has only potential to cause drizzle or light rain in the province (especially Badin, Umerkot, Thatta, Karachi, Hyderabad, Sanghar, Khairpur, Sukkur and adjoining areas) on June 16 till June 18. Some districts like Tharparker, Badin and Thatta can experience isolated moderate rain with thunder/lightning on June 16 night/June 17 morning.
After June 18, dry conditions expected in the province with some cloud activity near Tharparker district.
Poll of the Week
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