Weather has been quite active in much of Pakistan due to westerlies and localized circulations that is helping pre-monsoon activity. Once again, the developments in Arabian Sea cannot be ignored as it continues to push “heavy” moisture inland.
In the coming week, a weak circulation will form over eastern Balochistan and adjoining Sindh due to which temperature in Karachi will increase. Whereas the cloudy weather that is causing drizzle might come to an end on June 14 or June 15, with an error of +1 day.
All prominent weather models show presence of a heavy thunderstorm near or over Karachi on June 17/June 18. Hence, PWP predicts pre-monsoon activity in Karachi with a confidence level of 70%
- From June 15/16, Karachi may witness an increase in temperature (36°C to 39°C).
- On June 17/June 18, mainly due to the western thunderstorm and moisture from Arabian Sea, there are chances of heavy pre-monsoon rain in Karachi along with strong winds (45 km/h to 60 km/h). With an error of -1 day.
Authorities should be on alert for possible damaging winds and flooding in vulnerable areas. During this time, similar activity is also likely in parts of Sindh. Monsoon onset is unlikely in any part of Pakistan in the next few days! If there are any changes, daily updates will be posted on “Monsoon of Pakistan” page.
Post-prediction analysis published on June 19:
- As predicted by PWP, the temperature did rise in Karachi hovering around 36°C to 37°C, the prediction was for the temperature to be within 36°C to 39°C. The observed and actual temperature was well within the predicted range.
- As predicted by PWP, typical cloudy weather did end on June 14/June 15.
- Now as far as the rain goes, PWP prediction for the rain did not in a way materialize. All numerical models showed a heavy thunderstorm North of Karachi, the formation did happen! On June 17 and 18, the local/atmospheric conditions were favorable as well given the wind pattern (WNW) and temperature (36 to 37c). The thunderstorms did form and brought localized heavy downpour along with strong winds to the outskirts of the city (Bahria Town Karachi), it however unfortunately did not move to the city center as a fresh thunderstorm popped over central parts of Sindh which absorbed it (this is an unpredictable pattern but common across the world). Western thunderstorms are accompanied by damaging winds and given the fragile infrastructure of Karachi, this was pretty much a valid warning/watch! Which will be issued again as well if there is another western thunderstorm nearby the city!