Monsoon of Pakistan – Updates of June 2021

The Portal’s performance in the month of June (and May)

Cyclone Tauktae (May)

1.      PWP had predicted that the cyclone will reach category-4 hurricane status – Correct

2.      PWP had predicted that it may further intensify – Wrong

3.      PWP had maintained since May 15 that sharp showers with gusty winds might hit Karachi on Tue/Wed – Correct

4.      PWP had maintained since May 15 that there is no threat to Karachi – Correct

5.      PWP had predicted chances of torrential rains in Tharparkar district on Tue/Wed – Neutral (isolated heavy rain occurred there) 

6.      PWP predicted a heat wave in Karachi before the activity  – Correct

Monsoon onset in June?

1.      Since June 13, PWP had predicted that monsoon onset seems unlikely in the month of June – Correct (Pak Met Office has not confirmed any monsoon onset in the month of June as of July 3)

2.      PWP predicted pre-monsoon activity in NE Punjab and upper Pakistan due to easterly during June 23 – June 26 week – Correct

3.      PWP had predicted since June 4 that much of the activity is because of western disturbance – Correct

Karachi Pre-monsoon (June 17/18)

1.      As predicted by PWP, the temperature did rise in Karachi hovering around 36°C to 37°C, the prediction was for the temperature to be within 36°C to 39°C. The observed and actual temperature was well within the predicted range. – Correct

2.      As predicted by PWP, typical cloudy weather did end on June 14/June 15. – Correct

3.      (Neutral) Now as far as the rain goes, PWP prediction for the rain did not in a way materialize. All numerical models showed a heavy thunderstorm North of Karachi, the formation did happen! On June 17 and 18, the local/atmospheric conditions were favorable as well given the wind pattern (WNW) and temperature (36 to 37c). The thunderstorms did form and brought localized heavy downpour along with strong winds to the outskirts of the city (Bahria Town Karachi), it however unfortunately did not move to the city center as a fresh thunderstorm popped over central parts of Sindh which absorbed it (this is an unpredictable pattern but common across the world). Western thunderstorms are accompanied by damaging winds and given the fragile infrastructure of Karachi, this was pretty much a valid warning/watch! Which will be issued again as well if there is another western thunderstorm nearby the city!

Monsoon daily and weekly updates

Date of Issue – June 28 – July 5

  • Update issued at 11:00 pm

55% chances of monsoon onset in NE Punjab and adjoining upper Pakistan this week!

Rains in SE Sindh being reviewed whether it is a pre-monsoon or monsoon

45% possibility of monsoon onset in Karachi ‘around’ the third week of July.

Monsoon keeps on getting delayed in NW India and adjoining central areas by major Indian weather forecasters!

Mainly hot and humid weather is expected in the country. A weak western disturbance is over northern areas of Pakistan, it is gradually weakening and moving eastwards. As predicted by PWP, pre-monsoon rains did an activity in NE Punjab and upper Pakistan during the last week.

As mentioned on June 25, monsoon onset is ‘likely to happen’ (55%) during the first week of July over upper Pakistan especially NE Punjab. Likely dates are July 2/July 3/July 4, expect some thunderclouds nearby due to easterly-westerly interaction, moderate intensity easterlies ‘can’ influence NE Punjab.

Due to the presence of a low atmospheric condition in western Arabian Sea and a formation of cyclonic circulation over east Rajasthan (India) is pushing moisture into eastern Sindh. Moderate easterlies continue to penetrate SE Sindh and are causing fairly heavy showers since last day. The Portal will review next 24 to 48 hours to see if these are indeed monsoon or pre-monsoon rains because activity is expected to subside in Gujarat.

For Karachi, ‘around’ third week of July, there is a possibility of monsoon onset/rains, keeping the probability at 45% for now.

Date of Issue – June 23 – June 26

  • Update issued at 9:00 pm

Mainly hot and humid weather is expected in the country. In 12 to 24 hours, easterly winds will enter NE Punjab and upper Pakistan. Few isolated thunderclouds can also pop over northern Punjab including Islamabad and Lahore during this week given the interaction with western disturbance. This will be a pre-monsoon activity as westerlies will take over on June 26. Further delay of monsoon onset in western and north-western India by 7 days.

A weak western disturbance is passing from the northern areas of Pakistan, stray thundercloud can (40%) emerge over upper KPK, NE Balochistan and adjoining South Punjab. 25% chances of stray thunderclouds formation over eastern Balochistan and adjoining upper Sindh cannot be ruled out as well since this is a local phenomena and usually not picked by numerical models.

Trough that was extending towards the Sindh coast in early June has returned to normal position over western Indian coast. Chances of drizzle/isolated shower in Karachi due to local Arabian sea moisture persist. PWP’s initial monsoon forecast remains the same that was issued on June 4 and June 13. 

Date of Issue – June 22

  • Update issued at 9:00 pm

Mainly hot and humid weather is expected in the country. A weak western disturbance is passing from the northern areas of Pakistan, stray thundercloud can (40%) emerge over upper KPK, NE Balochistan and adjoining South Punjab. 25% chances of stray thunderclouds formation over eastern Balochistan and adjoining upper Sindh cannot be ruled out as well since this is a local phenomena and usually not picked by numerical models. Few isolated thunderclouds can also pop over northern Punjab including Islamabad and Lahore during this week, if temperature increases.

Trough that was extending towards the Sindh coast in early June has returned to normal position over western Indian coast. Chances of drizzle/isolated shower in Karachi due to local Arabian sea moisture persist. PWP’s initial monsoon forecast remains the same that was issued on June 4 and June 13. 

Date of Issue – June 21

  • Update issued at 9:00 pm

A weak western disturbance is passing from the northern areas of Pakistan due to which 55% chances of rain (moderate to isolated heavy) with strong dusty winds in south KPK, NE Balochistan and South Punjab. 45% chances of showers/rain with strong winds in Azad Kashmir. Some of these isolated thunderclouds can cross into upper Sindh to cause dust storm along with sharp showers (40%). Chances of drizzle/isolated shower in Karachi as well due to Arabian Sea moisture.

Date of Issue – June 20

  • Update issued at 9:00 pm

Monsoon progress is “slow”

Western disturbance grips Pakistan on June 20

Since June 13, it is only PWP that has maintained in their forecast that monsoon onset in any area of Pakistan looks unlikely in the next few days! The Portal has even expressed its opinion that there is possibility that the whole month of June may only witness pre-monsoon as flow gets disrupted to the frequent western disturbance and lack of easterly moisture. Circulation of the season’s first major low pressure is currently stationary over North central India since many days now due to this phenomena. Most of Pakistan is under the grip of westerlies hence monsoon advancement cannot happen.

  • There is a 60% possibility of monsoon progressing into western India (Rajasthan, Haryana, Indian Punjab) by the mid or end of coming week.
  • Hence 35% possibility of monsoon onset in Pakistan during the last days of June.
  • Chances increase to 45% in the first week of July.
  • Probability again increases in the 2nd week of July to 55% to 65% if the onset doesn’t happen in the 1st week of July or last days of June.

Fresh Western Disturbance engulfs North and Central Pakistan 

A weak disturbance is passing from the northern areas of Pakistan due to which 55% chances of rain (moderate to isolated heavy) with strong winds in KPK and north Punjab including Islamabad and adjoining Azad Kashmir. 45% chances of showers/rain with strong dust storm in NE Balochistan and adjoining South Punjab, some of these isolated thunderclouds can cross into upper Sindh to cause dust storm along with sharp showers (40%). Chances of drizzle/isolated shower in Karachi as well due to Arabian Sea moisture.

Date of Issue – June 19

  • Update issued at 3:00 pm

Karachi’s prediction and what happened: All numerical models showed a heavy thunderstorm North of Karachi, the formation did happen! On June 17 and 18, the local conditions were favorable as well given the wind pattern (WNW) and temperature (36 to 37c). The thunderstorms did form and brought localized heavy downpour along with strong winds to the outskirts of the city, it however unfortunately did not move to the city center as a fresh thunderstorm popped over central parts of Sindh which absorbed it (this is an unpredictable pattern but common across the world). Western thunderstorms are accompanied by damaging winds and given the fragile infrastructure of Karachi, this was pretty much a valid warning/watch! Which will be issued again as well if there is another western thunderstorm nearby the city!

Regular update

Mostly hot and humid weather expected across the country however some stray and isolated thundercloud can form over NE Balochistan and adjoining South Punjab which can bring sharp showers along with a dust storm.

A weak circulation  over eastern Balochistan and adjoining Sindh has moved into SE Sindh and adjoining Gujarat and Rajasthan, it will fizzle out in 48 hours. Chances of moderate to isolated heavy rain (50%) in SE Sindh. Few chances of drizzle/isolated shower in Karachi.

Date of Issue – June 18

  • Update issued at 7:00 pm

Heavy thunderstorms did develop but missed Karachi’s city center! 

A circulation over north central India is currently stationary. Due to presence of a westerly wave,  KPK and Azad Kashmir can expect one or two events (35%) of rain with strong winds. Local activity can also take place (45%) in North Punjab and NE Balochistan and adjoining South Punjab

A weak circulation  over eastern Balochistan and adjoining Sindh persistsm it will fizzle out in 48 to 72 hours. Rain with isolated heavy falls along with some very strong winds have occurred in few parts of Sindh and outskirts of Karachi (Karachi’s BT did receive brief heavy downpour with stormy winds). More chances of moderate to isolated heavy rain (50%) in Sindh including Karachi tomorrow as well. But the strongest part (June 17/June 18) has missed the city hence PWP ends its warning issued on June 12. 

Date of Issue – June 17

  • Update issued at 2:00 pm

Watch for Thundercloud formation near Karachi today!  

Monsoon has stalled over north, western and adjoining central areas of India hence monsoon is delayed for Pakistan. Low pressure over central India has weakened into a circulation and it is currently stationary. Due to presence of a westerly wave, chances of moderate to isolated heavy downpour with strong winds in parts of Punjab (both North and South), adjoining KPK and Azad Kashmir

As predicted, a weak circulation has formed over eastern Balochistan and adjoining Sindh. There are chances of pre-monsoon rain with strong winds in Sindh including Karachi on June 17/June 18 (- 1 day error), rain can be isolated heavy. Rain already reported from upper Sindh on June 16.

Date of Issue – June 16

  • Update issued at 2:30 pm

Monsoon delayed for Pakistan!

As stated on June 13 on ‘Monsoon of Pakistan’, Monsoon onset is not likely in few days. The monsoon axis is currently over NE India and may not move forward due to strong westerlies (pre-monsoon and westerly have been mentioned in June 4’s article, please check:https://pakistanweatherportal.com/2021/06/04/pakistan-awaits-its-share-of-critical-monsoon-in-2021/). It is possible that the onset in Pakistan may not happen in June, pre-monsoon activity likely!

Date of Issue – June 15

  • Update issued at 11:45 pm

South Punjab continues to get thunderstorms, Sindh is next!

Yesterday’s low pressure over Jharkhand is now over north central India, it is expected to move in a WNW direction so far and weaken gradually. Chances of moderate to isolated heavy downpour with strong winds in parts of Punjab (both North and South), adjoining KPK and Azad Kashmir on June 16 persist.

A weak circulation will form over eastern Balochistan in the next 24 to 36 hours. From June 16, Karachi’s temperature could increase (36°C to 39°C). Chances of pre-monsoon rain with strong winds in Karachi on June 17/June 18, rain can be isolated heavy. Similar activity also likely in Sindh as well. No monsoon onset likely in the next few days in Pakistan.

Date of Issue – June 14

  • Update issued at 10:00 pm

Pre-monsoon activity likely in Karachi this week

A well-marked low pressure over Bay of Bengal has weakened into a low pressure and has moved inland over Jharkhand, it is expected to move in a WNW direction so far. Chances of moderate to isolated heavy downpour with strong winds in Punjab (both North and South), adjoining KPK and Azad Kashmir on June 14 and June 15/June 16 persist.

A weak circulation will form over eastern Balochistan by later this week. From June 15/16, Karachi may witness an increase in temperature (36°C to 39°C). Chances of pre-monsoon rain with strong winds in Karachi on June 17/June 18, rain can be isolated heavy. Until then, chances of drizzle/isolated shower (some areas can have sharp shower) from time to time till Monday/Tuesday. No monsoon onset likely in the next few days in Pakistan.

Date of Issue – June 13

  • Update issued at 11:30pm

Karachi ‘can’ get heatwave on June 15/16 and then heavy pre-monsoon downpour on June 17/June 18Watch for damaging winds! 

A well-marked low pressure over Bay of Bengal persist due to proximity to the coast of West Bengal, it may now not intensify further into a depression. Heavy pre-monsoon showers/rain continues in North Pakistan while isolated to scattered activity also observed in central Pakistan with intervals as predicted by PWP. Lahore has not gotten a heavy downpour (it got moderate rain) which goes against the prediction. Chances of more moderate to isolated heavy downpour with strong winds in Punjab (both North and South), adjoining KPK and Azad Kashmir on June 14 and June 15/June 16. More remnants of thunderclouds can cross into Upper Sindh and adjoining Balochistan as well.

A weak circulation will form over eastern Balochistan by the end of next week. From June 15/16, Karachi may witness an increase in temperature (36°C to 39°C). Due to western thunderstorm and moisture from Arabian Sea and Bay of Bengal weather system, chances of heavy pre-monsoon rain with strong winds in Karachi on June 17/June 18. Until then, chances of drizzle/isolated shower (some areas can have sharp shower) from time to time till Monday/Tuesday. No monsoon onset likely in the next few days in Pakistan.

Date of Issue – June 12

  • Update issued at 11:30pm

Heavy pre-monsoon downpour likely in north Pakistan on June 12/June 13, watch for isolated urban flooding

A low pressure over Bay of Bengal has intensified into a well-marked low pressure, it can intensify further into a depression. It is likely to move in western direction towards central India. Under its influence along with interaction with western disturbance, chances of heavy pre-monsoon downpour along with strong winds likely in north Pakistan especially Lahore and Islamabad on June 12/June 13, watch for isolated urban flooding. Chances of isolated heavy rain along with strong winds also in central areas (South Punjab). This activity will continue with intervals till June 14/June15 but with less intensity than on June 12/June 13. Thunderstorms from South Punjab were seen moving into upper Sindh as well which brought dust storm today.

A weak circulation will form over eastern Balochistan by the end of next week, it will cause sharp showers along with strong winds in Karachi during that period. From June 15/16, Karachi may witness an increase in temperature (36°C to 39°C). Until then, chances of drizzle/isolated shower (some areas can have sharp shower) from time to time till Monday/Tuesday. Movement of monsoon axis towards south Pakistan is under watch, PWP will update once there is concrete evidence of monsoon onset there.  

Date of Issue – June 11

  • Update issued at 7:00 pm

Heavy pre-monsoon downpour likely in north Pakistan on June 12/June 13, watch for isolated urban flooding

FINAL

A weak western disturbance is present over North Pakistan which has caused dust storms along with sharp showers/rain/hail in NW areas of the country in the last 24 to 36 hours. This activity is very likely to intensify in 6 to 12 hours. A low pressure over Bay of Bengal has formed on June 11, it can intensify into a strong low pressure or a monsoon depression. It is likely to move in western direction towards central India. Under its influence along with interaction with western disturbance, chances of heavy pre-monsoon downpour along with strong winds likely in north Pakistan especially Lahore and Islamabad on June 12/June 13, watch for isolated urban flooding. Chances of isolated heavy rain along with strong winds also in central areas (South Punjab). This activity will continue with intervals till June 14/June15 but with less intensity than on June 12/June 13.

A weak circulation will form over eastern Balochistan by the end of next week, it will cause sharp showers along with strong winds in Karachi during that period. Until then, chances of drizzle/isolated shower (some areas can have sharp shower) from time to time. Movement of monsoon axis towards south Pakistan is under watch, PWP will update once there is concrete evidence of monsoon onset there.  

Date of Issue – June 8

  • Update issued at 11:00 pm

Heavy pre-monsoon downpour likely in north Pakistan on June 12/June 13, watch for isolated urban flooding

A high pressure is forming over central Pakistan. Hence mostly dry and hot weather for the next 24 to 36 hours. Due to the presence of a circulation over coastal Gujarat, mostly cloudy weather with chances of drizzle/isolated shower persist in Karachi.

A monsoon depression (chances of formation upgraded to is 95%) will form in the Bay of Bengal on June 11. It is likely to move in western direction towards central India so far. Under its influence along with interaction with western disturbance, chances of heavy pre-monsoon downpour likely in north Pakistan including Lahore and Islamabad on June 12/June 13, watch for isolated urban flooding.

Date of Issue – June 7

  • Update issued at 12:00 pm

A high pressure is forming over central Pakistan. Hence mostly dry and hot weather for the next 24 to 48 hours. Due to the presence of a circulation over coastal Gujarat, mostly cloudy weather with chances of drizzle persist in Karachi.

A monsoon depression (chances of formation upgraded to is 75%) may form in the Bay of Bengal during the mid of June. It is likely to move in western direction towards central India so far.

Date of Issue – June 6

  • Update issued at 3:00 pm

Last night parts of South Punjab, central Balochistan and upper Sindh received sharp showers (some areas received heavy downpour) along with dust storm. Drizzle and isolated showers also reported from Karachi. Due to the presence of weak westerlies along with circulation over central Pakistan more such isolated events such as drizzle/sharp shower along with dust storm in parts of South Punjab, central Balochistan and adjoining upper Sindh. During this period, drizzle/isolated shower likely in Karachi as well.

A monsoon depression (chances of formation upgraded to is 55%) may form in the Bay of Bengal during the mid of June. It is likely to move in western direction towards central India so far.

Date of Issue – June 5

  • Update issued at 1:00 pm

As mentioned on May 28 via PWP’s Twitter account, the presence of weak westerlies along with circulation over central Pakistan will continue to cause isolated events such as drizzle/sharp shower along with dust storm in parts of South Punjab, central Balochistan and adjoining upper Sindh. During this period, drizzle/isolated shower likely in Karachi as well.

A monsoon depression (chances of formation is 45%) may form in the Bay of Bengal during the mid of June.

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