The Bird of Monsoon in Pakistan, a detailed research by PWP

Their call is the sound of the rainy season

flock-of-birds-flying-above-the-mountain-during-sunset-70577

It is only a matter of time when the cloud envelops the sky and rain falls down, a delightful moment indeed for most! But before the downpour, there is a call in the heavens, a sound that echoes the coming of the wet season, a sound that is reminiscent of good times ahead. It comes every year but only few are conscious enough to notice it. It is the Red-wattled lapwing!

Introduction – Distribution and Behaviour of Red-Wattled Lapwing

Being native to West and South Asia, Red-wattled lapwing bird is distributed across a wide area stretching from Turkey, central Asia to south-east Asia (Arvind, 2015). It is distinguishable from other birds due to its long yellow legs and red beak. But most importantly, Red-wattled lapwing’s loud alarm-like calls are what makes it distinctive from other birds. During my childhood, I remember the alarm clock ringing in the morning for school but if there was a power break-down due to the monsoon then you were also able to hear “nature’s clock” as well (pun intended).

Moving on, the nesting behaviour of Red-wattled lapwing is from March or April to June, some ornithologists extend it to August. Their breeding season coincides largely with the Indian monsoon season (Sujit et.al, 2011).

The next bit may sound like a description from a child’s anime shows like Pokemon or Digimon but it is actually not. As a flying ground bird, lapwing lay their eggs in a ground scrape usually near a wetland, shallow/stagnant natural water or ponds. Therefore, the rainy season provides a great opportunity to build a nest and breed (Sujit et.al, 2011).

Red-Wattled Lapwing and Pakistan

Red-wattled_lapwing_(Vanellus_indicus)_Photograph_by_Shantanu_Kuveskar

Interestingly, out of the four sub-species two are found in Pakistan, that is Aigneri and Indicus (Gill et.al, 2019). In Urdu,  it is pronounced as Titeeri whereas in Sindhi it is called Tateehar. It is worth-mentioning that there is a literature and history biasness towards Pakistan by few western academics, researchers and historians so at times the audience might come across a content that suggests that the nominate specie is primarily habitant of India but in reality it is also found in Pakistan. A better term would be the Indian sub-continent.

Despite being a resident in the Indian sub-continent, an ambiguity exists leading to argument whether the Red-wattled Lapwing is a migratory or non-migratory bird. In light of research by Ali & Ripley (1980) and our own observation over the years, we have discovered that the bird does tend to migrate from semi-arid and dry areas notably Balochistan and Karachi in the winter season to moist areas in northern Pakistan. Generally, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and the Punjab province of Pakistan gets frequent spell of rains through-out the year due to western disturbance (an extratropical storm that originates near the Mediterranean sea or Middle East and travels as far as India and China. The term ‘western disturbance’ is popular in South Asia). And once the summer and monsoon approaches, the bird spreads to the south of the country.

Building blocks for our Research

Let’s leave weather prediction on the birds because they are doing it far better than humankind!

veery bird

Having been inspired by Netflix documentary series ‘Connected’, we were astonished to see how a small bird called Veery thrush (above image) was able to predict the North Atlantic Hurricane season better than high-tech computers and meteorologists.

According to the research by Delaware State University, the bird migrates from Brazil to the east coast of the United States in the spring season to mate and lay eggs, and returns back to the South American country in Autumn just before the annual tropical activity. But at times, Veery thrush may cut-short its stay and migrate back to southern Amazon basin. When researchers surveilled the bird’s unusual behaviour, they were baffled to spot that the bird’s action were directly linked with the hurricane season. Veery thrush will arrive early and extend their stay in the United States which signals a late hurricane season but if they leave early, it means an early and intense storm period (Davitt, 2020).

veery bird map

As per the documentary, meteorologists declared 2018 Hurricane season as a ‘below average season’ but researchers at the University were certain that it would be an ‘above-average’ season since the bird had left early. It was indeed a showdown between leading weather pundits and a small tiny bird, a clash between science and nature. And not-so-surprisingly given the evidence and data by researchers at the University, Veery thrush emerged as a better “meteorologist”!

The findings in a way would leave many to lift their eyebrows in astonishment just like the host in the documentary and rightly so because the University put their findings against the predictions of highly expensive and advance computer models but in the past countless theories have emerged where people have claimed that animals were capable to foresee a natural phenomena before they actually happen. We, at Pakistan Weather Portal (PWP),  did cover this subject back in 2011. (Below picture is from July 2020)

Time to have our own ‘Netflix’ moment

karachi rain 2020

As reported in PWP’s article on June 4, the monsoon season in 2021 is largely expected to be normal due to neutral ENSO conditions in the Pacific Ocean. However, on smaller scale, it can behave erratic owing to the temperature fluctuation in the North Indian ocean which could lead to frequent heavy downpours in isolated areas. Hence, when we were posed a question on June 15 specifically about Karachi in the comments section. We stated, “…the sea and atmospheric conditions are neutral this year but we are observing that the Indian west coast trough is extending towards the Sindh coast hence possibly normal to few above normal events cannot be ruled out.”

What led us to give this response is because there is an evidence that a positive Indian Ocean Dipole might (55%) develop in July and August which would strength the Indian west coast trough and the result would be an increased rain activity in Karachi. Along with the current wave of Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) which is present over the warm Arabian Sea.

Now that is the weather prediction from PWP and before the audience wanders here and there, lets come back to the Red-wattled lapwing because the article is about the bird!

Observing the Behaviour of Red-Wattled lapwing

We were eager  to make Red-wattled lapwing the “Veery thrush of Karachi”. In line with studies of this nature, data is significant. PWP’s data is mainly derived from our examination of the bird in the past and Karachi’s monsoon pattern in 2010, 2017 and 2019, 2020. In all of these years, above normal monsoon rains were recorded this led to our hypothesis and research question.

By following the principles of ethology, we as a team of two had to observe the bird since January 2021. I eventually had to carry a 7-month study, it was tiring but exciting because it requires making a catalog of the date and the area. Due to COVID-19 restrictions and social distancing, we communicated via WhatsApp to discuss the whereabouts of the bird. The location shortlisted was South of Karachi because the last point where the bird will arrive from upper Pakistan, India or central Asian states would be the southern parts of the city. We formalized a research question;

  • Does the early arrival of Red-wattled Lapwing indicate
    • 1) An early summer rainy season in Karachi?
    • 2) a wet monsoon in Karachi?

Our Findings

While discussing on WhatsApp, we found the bird in Karachi’s DHA (South) on February 13. We uploaded a stock image of Lapwing bird for our own record so that it is convenient for us to search the chat.

  • It had arrived in February well before its nesting period in March and April. It highlighted that by February 13, Karachi’s 2020-2021 winter had surely come to an end and there was no chance of any cold wave. In the past, winters have extended till the end of February.

By now the ground was set to implement our observation and hypothesis on summer rains. Therefore;

1) Does the early arrival of Red-wattled Lapwing indicate an early summer rainy season in Karachi?

Yes, if the Red-walled Lapwing comes early in the year, then Karachi can expect summer rains ahead of its normal schedule. The standard timeframe for city’s annual rains is from July till August. It is common to witness May and June pass without any sort of rain. However, this year like most of the years mentioned above, Karachi did witness sporadic summer showers quite early. In the month of May, a strong dust storm followed by showers due to Cyclone Tauktae and an isolated heavy pre-monsoon downpour in the northern end of the city around mid of June. 

Thus, the 1st part of the question is a definite yes!

2) Does the early arrival of Red-wattled Lapwing indicate a wet monsoon for Karachi?

Rains are forecasted to hit Karachi around the third week of July which will be widespread and heavy. Since the monsoon season is on-going, we currently cannot answer the question. But we are speculating a change in the North Indian ocean sea temperature towards a higher side and an active MJO phase. If such a scenario unfolds then it will be a third consecutive wet monsoon for Karachi.

And if so, PWP’s hypothesis will be proved correct that the early arrival of Red-wattled Lapwing bird indicates an early rainy as well as a wet monsoon season for Karachi. It will no longer be a hypothesis but a fact which could be beneficial because not always numerical models tend to get it right. Lets wait till the end of August for a final conclusion on this study!

Unique characteristics of the bird and its relationship with the monsoon has led me and Pakistan Weather Portal (PWP) to conduct 1st of its kind study in Pakistan. Nevertheless, this could be beneficial to bird watchers, researchers and the growing weather community!

References

  1. Arvind (2015): The Red-wattled Lapwing Pictures and Detail (A Bird with Lady like Walk) (arvindkatoch.com)
  2. Davitt, J. (2020): Hurricane Forecasting Is for the Birds (spectrumlocalnews.com)
  3. Sujit, N., Madhukar, F. and Kamlakar, F., (2011). Nesting ecology of red-wattled lapwing in agricultural landscape. Life Science Bulletin, 8(1), pp.97-100.
  4. Gill, F., Donsker, D., eds. (2019). “Grebes, flamingos, buttonquail, plovers, painted-snipes, jacanas, plains-wanderer, seedsnipes”. World Bird List Version 9.2. International Ornithologists’ Union. Retrieved 26 June 2019.
  5. Ali, S. and Ripley, S, D. (1980). Handbook of the birds of India and Pakistan. 2 (2nd ed.). Oxford University Press. pp. 212–215.

4 thoughts on “The Bird of Monsoon in Pakistan, a detailed research by PWP

  1. A good read, as always. Arrival of this bird, including other parameters might possibly be indicating another wet year for Karachi. 3 consecutive wet years for Karachi is unheard of.

    • Thank you! Yes, it will be uncommon to have a 3rd wet year in a row. The closest were the years of 2006 & 2007 and 2010 & 2011.

      EDIT (27 July, 2021): 2009, 2010 and 2011 were three years in a row in the past, but still very uncommon.

  2. Very interesting article and discovery. Good to have PWP back and its insightful predictions and articles.

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