Monsoon of Pakistan

breathe

2021 Monsoon of Pakistan

Monsoon daily monthly updates

Date of Issue – September 22

-Moist weak to relatively moderate-intensity westerlies have been observed entering Balochistan (fairly normal for this month). Strong westerlies did penetrate north Pakistan. Western thunderstorm with high precipitation observed over Iran. Such activity signals the weakening of the dry air.
 
-The Arabian sea has now started warming up which it does in this month and October irrespective of -IOD (it’s normal). Bay of Bengal’s sudden warming in this month cannot be explained so far, MJO phase doesn’t cause such prolong warming. The Bay of Bengal is expected to further warm up due to the seasonal heating that takes place in Sept/Oct.
 
-Monsoon has started behaving as if it’s July (highly abnormal). 2 to 4 more circulations/low pressures can form in the Bay of Bengal in the coming days. Monsoon moisture can reach as far as Oman (circulation has dissipated off the coast of Oman) from the Bay of Bengal to the Arabian Sea. We are witnessing history in the making!
 
-As forecasted on Sept 19, monsoon rains to subside in 24 hours in North Pakistan and very likely that the process of withdrawal will begin there. Probability at 70% for rain at times heavy in Sindh including Karachi due to the remnant depression on Sept 23 (+1,-1 day error). South should expect a prolong monsoon that can surpass 2019. Next spell can happen in the South during the last week of September, the low pressure is currently over east-central India.

Date of Issue – September 19

Now, honestly, this year the monsoon has been behaving quite erratically and somewhat unpredictable in the South of Pakistan. Since majority of Sindh, adjoining South Punjab, Balochistan and KPK (south, central & north-western areas) technically do not fall under the main monsoon zones hence there are no withdrawal criteria. If we follow the international guidelines applicable to many parts of India, then monsoon had withdrawn during the 2nd last/last week of August from Sindh (as per the first dates issued by PWP) as all conditions were met. But afterwards, the moisture levels increased considerably for it to be called as post-monsoon rains. These levels remain quite high with no signs of decreasing and the back-to-back systems from the Bay of Bengal is only prolonging the easterlies despite no major rain. 2 to 3 new systems are expected to form in the Bay which could further prolong the monsoon, which could lead to a record-breaking withdrawal for the sub-continent. One estimate is 15th of October. Previous record of October 9 was set in 2019 in South Asia. A late withdrawal could mean a late winter! Following is the forecast for the coming week;

-The last monsoon spell of 2021 has started in the northern areas, it is likely to stay active till Sept 22/23. Some rain will be heavy to very heavy. Moisture levels after this spell would be quite low to be considered as a proper monsoonal activity. Therefore, there will be 4 to 5 days of mostly dry and sunny. Easterlies will weaken significantly. This is meeting the criteria of withdrawal. Hence the timeframe of withdrawal beginning in the last week of September is conclusive for northern areas. Chances of post-monsoon rains in the 1st week of October.

-During the mid of the coming week, monsoon moisture is very likely to shift to the southern areas of Pakistan including Karachi. Probability at 70% for rain at times heavy in Sindh due to the remnant depression on Sept 23 (+1,-1 day error).

Date of Issue – September 17

Last positive pulse from Monsoon 2021 is expected in the country in the coming week due to the remnant depression (it has gotten delayed as it stalled) and the upcoming fresh low pressure from the Bay of Bengal, after that the monsoon winds in Pakistan are very likely to weaken further. Looking at the withdrawal during the last week of September (a 2-3 week delayed observed). All activity after that will be considered post-monsoon as temperature is expected to increase along with the formation of a high pressure which would lead to continental air. Easterlies will gradually subside.

Date of Issue – September 10

Low pressure over East Rajasthan persists, and it is likely to linger on. The main concentration of the moisture will now shift to east, north-east and south-east end of the system, some will still be over the west till tonight/tomorrow morning. The shifting is due to the pull effect from a much stronger system (depression) in the Bay of Bengal, the old system will therefore slowly start moving in an ESE direction towards the Gujarat coast.
If it doesn’t dissipate, there can be some interaction between the two systems, which could increase the precipitation levels of the upcoming depression. Chances of thunder/lightning with rain persists in SE Sindh till tonight. A weak thundercloud (35%) can form far NE of Karachi, it won’t impact the city. Overall, the 2nd Sept spell is nearing end. Lahore records it highest 24 hr rain this year around 232 mm, it is due to the westerlies and the low pressure over East Rajasthan.
 
-If the current low pressure over Rajasthan stalls and moves in an ESE direction, there can be a “Fujiwara Effect” between the upcoming depression and the low pressure. A common phenomenon between two nearby weather systems, especially observed among hurricanes.
 
-Upcoming depression can affect South Pakistan during September 16 to September 19 (+1,-1 day error). Possibility at 40% for now. We will upgrade or downgrade it on Sept 14 depending on the prevailing conditions. Karachi’s temperature will range from 35°C to 36°, peaking at 37°C to 39°C during the mid of the week (+1°C error). Possibility at 65%. A fourth monsoon low pressure can also form in the Bay of Bengal due to the moisture penetration from Typhoons in the Pacific Ocean. Bay’s waters are warm, the Arabian sea is somewhat towards a cooler side.

Date of Issue – September 8

North Pakistan

Under the influence of a western circulation over NW Pakistan, scattered to widespread monsoon rains being reported from the northern areas of Pakistan as predicted by PWP since August 30, Rawalpindi has recorded 169 mm in 24 hours. This spell will continue till Sept 11/12 (+/-1 day error). There can be a next monsoon spell in the north with a chance of 45% in the coming week. The monsoon winds will start to weaken after the current wave and very likely to withdraw in the last two weeks of September.

South Pakistan – 2nd Spell of September

Wettest September since 2011 in Karachi 

First discussed on 1st September by PWP, a strong monsoon low pressure (well-marked low pressure) is over Madya Pradesh which is likely to linger over the Rajasthan-Gujarat area during this whole week, it can cross Gujarat coast by the end of this week. Under the influence of this system, PWP upgrades chances from “40%” to “55 % to 65%” in the south for a 2nd monsoon spell in September. The atmospheric condition in the area remain unfavorable as we have been stating since many days therefore the chance of rain will remain hit-or-miss. This is the ‘unusually large-weather system’ we talked about in the last few days. Although it wont cross into Sindh, due to its size some thunderclouds can cross into the border. Rain with chances (65%) of scattered heavy falls (isolated extremely heavy) likely through-out this week in SE Sindh due to close approximation of the system. Rain with chances (55%) of isolated heavy falls can happen in Karachi this week.

South Pakistan – 3rd Spell of September

Similarly, a very strong monsoon low pressure may form in the Bay of Bengal next week, probably a well-marked system or even a depression. It is likely to move in west direction. PWP upgrades its chances from 20% to 40% for south Pakistan. This will be a significant with a high precipitation weather system! Monsoon withdrawal expected during the last week of September or the 1st week of October.

Date of Issue – September 4

Karachi records 81 mm rain in 24-36 hours, total rain 99 mm since the spell began on 1st September
 
Yesterday’s circulation over the Gujarat-Sindh border has moved over SE Sindh as it moves further NW, the formation of thunderstorms is happening over eastern, northern, and adjoining central areas in Karachi today, unlike yesterday where it was titled southeastwards. Severe thunderstorms remain over the open waters of the Arabian Sea. Today is the last day of this spell. The rains could have been much heavier had the dry air been not an obstacle. Now, monsoon rains likely to return to the northern areas of Pakistan as stated on August 27 (a chance at 70%) likely on Sept 7/Sept 8 (+1 day error).
 
As predicted on September 1 in the “Monsoon of Pakistan” post, back-to-back low pressures are likely to form in the Bay of Bengal in the coming week. The 1st being unusually large however due to the restoration of westerlies, its track might be impacted. Therefore the chance of 2nd monsoon spell from remains 40% around the end of 2nd week in Sindh including Karachi. While a chance of 25% so far from the third monsoon low pressure during the mid of September in Sindh including Karachi. A fourth monsoon low can also form in the Bay of Bengal. A high pressure over Balochistan, dry air from the Arabian Peninsula and westerlies in North Pakistan will remain a contributing factor in their tracks! Worth-mentioning SST remains unfavorable. New and conclusive dates of monsoon withdrawal to be issued on September 8. 

Date of Issue – September 3

UPDATED – 11:59 PM:
-Highest: 66.7 mm rain recorded at Saadi town road Sept 3- PMD (PWP records 46.8 mm rain at our DHA station Sept 3)
-Highest: 18 mm rain was recorded in Surjani town – PMD (Sept 2)
-“Total accumulated” rain is 84 mm in 72 hours in Karachi so far.
The median monthly rain in the city for September is 11 mm, if we take the average then 35.5 mm has been recorded since 72 hours, above normal.

Date of Issue – September 2

Yesterday’s low pressure over Gujarat-Sindh border remained stationary while its main thunderstorm continues to hover over the open waters of the Arabian Sea and Gujarat coast, touching Keti Bandar. Dry air coming from Balochistan and the Arabian Peninsula is limiting precipitation in the western side of the system. It is slowly moving in an NW direction and may continue to linger over Sindh border but it will weaken again into circulation. It will dissipate by September 4 evening. Under this scenario, chances (55%-65%) of rain with isolated heavy falls remain valid in southern and SE Sindh including Karachi till Sept 3/Sept 4 afternoon. This is the last update for this system.

Date of Issue – September 1

Monsoon rains return to South after 1-month break

1st Monsoon spell of September in the South

1st monsoon spell sept

Monsoon Axis has shifted southward. Karachi records 40°C temperature today amid isolated rain showers, the record is 42.2 °C (1951). The heatwave is due to a presence of a circulation which is now over SE Gujarat and the adjoining Arabian Sea & Sindh, it is very likely to intensify into a low pressure in the next few hours. Due to a tilt south-wards, the strongest and severe thunderstorms of this system will be off the coast of Keti Bunder in Sindh, SE Gujarat, and open waters of the Arabian Sea. No change in the rain forecast issued on August 30 for Karachi.

Based on past observation and approx. location of previous weather systems in the Arabian Sea, there is a 45% possibility of torrential rain accompanied by gusty winds in Landhi, Korangi, DHA, Clifton, Saddar, Shahrah-e-Faisal, & adjoining localities as highlighted in the above map.

2nd Monsoon spell of September in the South

2nd monsoon spell sept

As stated on August 30 about the 30% possibility of another monsoon spell in the month of September, its probability is now upgraded to 40% around the end of 2nd week. If current projections by numerical models are to be trusted, there appears to be a formation of an unusually large-sized low-pressure system in the Bay of Bengal in the coming week. Very rare for the month of September. However during that time, westerly winds will be restored in the North (check the forecast of North issued on August 30), what influence it has on the low pressure’s track is yet to be observed. A detailed forecast will be issued on 8th September including new withdrawal dates.

Successive low pressures in the Bay of Bengal could happen 

After the above one, one to two more low pressures can form in the Bay of Bengal.

Date of Issue – August 30

We had already mentioned on August 21 about ‘Chances – 55% of a moderate to strong monsoon wave in the north during the end of the last week in August.’ This spell is ongoing and may continue till August 31/1st September (+1,-1 day error) with intervals. Next wave of monsoon spell also moderate to strong (chance at 70%) likely on Sept 7/Sept 8 (+1 day error)

A possibility (25%) was also mentioned on August 21 about a brewing low pressure in the Bay of Bengal. The probability has exponentially increased rapidly at 95%.  Monsoon Axis can shift south in the next 36 to 48 hours towards Sindh province. Moisture from upcountry will start to penetrate towards the central and southern areas.

An upper air cyclonic circulation can form near Gujarat and adjoining Arabian Sea leading to the pull effect ahead of the Bay of Bengal weather system. There are three scenarios now;

  1. The system crosses into the Arabian Sea and moves towards the Balochistan coast.
  2. The system crosses into the Arabian Sea and stalls at the Gujarat coast and adjoining Sindh coast.
  3. The system stays over Gujarat and recurves back into India due to an expected formation of a new weather system in the Bay of Bengal.

In Karachi, the temperature will range from 35 °C to 38 °C in the coming week. Hottest days being August 31/September 1 or September 2. Worth noting, there is a huge contrast among numerical models for precipitation.

Two peaks are being observed. 1st chances of rain with isolated heavy falls in Karachi (possibility at 65%) on September 1/ September 2 (+1,-1 day error) – 30 mm to 75 mm. And then another peak (possibility at 55%) on September 3 (+1 day error), similar rain stat.

Watch for urban flooding due to the fragile infrastructure of the city. If Scenario 1 and 2 happen then sea conditions along the Sindh coast can be rough as well. 30% possibility of another monsoon spell in the month of September.

Date of Issue – August 27

𝗢𝗯𝘀𝗲𝗿𝘃𝗮𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻: ECMWF shows a low pressure in the Bay of Bengal to emerge as a strong low/depression off the coast of Gujarat in the Arabian sea and its movement towards southern Sindh including #Karachi. Rain ranging from 100 mm to 170 mm during the period in Karachi (Similar to 2011 Monsoon). GFS that was picking it up earlier is no longer showing and other models also do not agree (GFS shows TR to 2 mm only, other models show dry pattern). This year there has been a huge variation between numerical models.
 
𝗙𝗼𝗿𝗲𝗰𝗮𝘀𝘁: We will issue an update on Monday if it looks to materialize (Probability still at 25%).
 

Date of Issue – August 21

#NewDelhi has recorded its highest rainfall in 13 years – 149.2 mm (24 hours). MJO phase has set in, hit-or-miss thunderstorms can across into NE Punjab and adjoining north #Pakistan. Chances – 55% of a moderate to strong monsoon wave in the north during the end of the last week in August.
 
As has been stating for many weeks, the monsoon axis remains largely upwards coupled with below-average SST (-IOD). Nothing concrete for the South (We would keep track of a system that will develop near the Bay of Bengal in the 1st week of September, its probability is minimal -25% though and it is only being picked up by GFS.).
 
No change in the process of monsoon withdrawal dates that were published on August 7 for the time being.

Date of Issue – August 10

plot_pcp_tvalue_8pan_maysep

It quite visible as per foreign numerical models that a wet MJO phase is likely to grip much of the sub-continent by the 3rd week of August. Its effect in North Pakistan remains valid as stated on August 7 (the north has the benefit of westerlies as well which enhances rain activity). For South Pakistan especially Karachi, it mainly depends on the location and movement of the MJO wave, if the Phase 3 & 4 moves near it (ranking and phases vary as per global climate centers, we follow NOAA) then southern parts of the country can experience wet conditions. The UK Met Office puts Phase 2 and 3 as nearest to India. However as per the observed pattern in the regions at the tail end of the monsoon,  when the monsoon rains are pushed back into mainland India due to dry or westerly wind, it is difficult for them to move back into southern parts of Pakistan (with the exception of 2011). The reason for our skepticism is the cooling of SST off the coast of Africa (negative Indian Ocean dipole) which is now spreading over most of the Arabian Sea though the southerly wind remains strong and is pushing moisture into land, it is weaker to support a proper rain bearing system for days. Unlike in July when conditions were near-perfect!

Capture

(Dry conditions gripped Pakistan from late July till the mid of August)

Worth-noting, numerical models are picking up a low pressure system in the Bay of Bengal which is tilted south-wards yet at the same time shows a moderate intensity westerly wind in North Pakistan which can have an effect the direction of the low pressure. Whether the MJO phase will delay the process and stages of withdrawal is yet to be seen therefore for now the withdrawal dates remain unchanged. 

Date of Issue – August 7

A wet MJO phase is likely to set in over the North Indian Ocean during the 3rd week of August. Active monsoon conditions to persist in the North due to westerly-easterly interaction, a brief break expected in the early coming week. Then due to MJO, again active conditions in the North and adjoining central areas can happen. As per latest numerical runs, the process of withdrawal begins in the North during 5th Sept – 11th.
 
However, since its a normal monsoon season, the dates of withdrawal are also approaching (29 Aug – 4 Sep). SST remains towards a cooler side. Therefore any major progress in the South especially Karachi appears very low for the time being due to a presence of high pressure and dry winds in Balochistan.
 
Conditions would be different in India especially west coast which could meet the deficit while the North-East Monsoon in India and Winter season in Pakistan will be impacted due to the upcoming La-Nina (projection at 55% by NOAA).

Date of Issue – August 4

⏺BOB-03 has stalled over Madya Pradesh and since it hasn’t moved into East Rajasthan and adjoining Gujarat, below average temperatures and cloudy weather continues in #Karachi due to strong southerly wind. Chances of third monsoon spell reduced from 40% to 5% in SE Sindh due to BOB-03’s stall. While no chances of light rain from BOB-03 in #Karachi now as the system would continue to linger over central India. No system in sight for South for the next many days!
 
⏺North can witness 2 to 3 more spells of rains in August. Weak to moderate easterlies present.
 
⏺PWP upgrades monsoon withdrawal around/during the last week of August from 45% to 55%. A void can appear due to high pressure build-up over much of Pakistan and western India. Monsoon moisture will remain confined over North Pakistan, North India, NE India, Southern Peninsula, West coast of India and Bangladesh. Due to relatively active conditions over Indian west coast, coast of Pakistan especially south Sindh will remain under the grip of moisture-laden winds from the Arabian Sea.

 

Date of Issue – July 29

⏺ Third Monsoon Spell in Sindh (Probability at 40% – August 5/August 6, +,-1 day error)
 
Strong low pressure BOB-03 persists over NW Bay of Bengal, it is the current season’s most powerful low pressure that can drop 100 mm to 350 mm in few hours in its path in India. It is slowly moving in a WNW direction and its last destination is western Madya Pradesh and adjoining Rajasthan and Gujarat.
 
The system will not affect South Pakistan but its weak monsoon currents ‘can’ penetrate. Moisture levels will be at low to medium level in SE Sindh and adjoining parts. Therefore, there are chances (40%) of isolated moderate to isolated heavy rain in SE Sindh. In the coming week, the skies will start to clear up to an extent and very humid weather can prevail in Karachi. Due to this system, there are chances (25%) of light rain in Karachi on August 5/August 6 (+,-1 day error).
 
⏺Thoughts on the ‘Outlook of the Remaining Monsoon’
 
PWP is confident about its ‘Outlook of the remaining Monsoon season’ issued on July 27. Looking at a normal withdrawal, just like a normal onset was predicted since we returned back! Overall, this monsoon is normal, few above normal events witnessed (as stated in June 4 article). Average July’s rain in Karachi is 60 mm (revised by GoP), and recorded rain in this year’s monsoon is very well within/around that range. However, we were expecting more ‘normal’ widespread spells in the South in August (1 to 2 spells). Sadly, it doesn’t look like it due to sudden changing of SST.

Date of Issue – July 27

Largely this will be a normal monsoon as stated on June 4 with few above normal events in isolated areas. 1st, 2nd &  3rd Monsoon Spell in North and 1st and 2nd Monsoon spell in Sindh have gone in line with the prediction of PWP except for few instance which are common in meteorology.

 

Indian 2021 IOD

⏺ Outlook of the remaining Monsoon

Active Monsoon conditions to continue through-out the remaining of July in North. The North can expect a 4th and 5th Monsoon spell in the month of August. Low confidence on a 6th spell.

Very strong southerly winds will persist for 1.5/2  weeks in the South. Monsoon Axis will remain over North and adjoining central Pakistan. Australian Met Office has declared -IOD (above chart is by Bureau of Meteorology), awaiting PR from other international weather. PWP was expecting that a trend closer to +IOD to continue because of the sudden warming that was witnessed in the month of April, May and June which lead to the initial active conditions in the South. However, rather than gradual, a trend towards sudden cooling continues off the coast of east Africa. Due to the ‘sudden cooling’ and lack of circulations over the Arabian Sea, monsoon activity expected to remain weak over South Pakistan. There is a 45% chance of monsoon withdrawal during or around the last week of August in Pakistan, a normal withdrawal is expected just like a normal onset was predicted. 

⏺ 3rd Monsoon spell in the South

A strong low pressure BOB-03 is present over NW Bay of Bengal, it is expected to move in WNW direction, due to the expected formation of a circulation over Rajasthan and adjoining South Punjab, few thunderclouds can form near SE Sindh during the end of the 1st week of August with chances of isolated moderate to heavy downpour (similar to the 2nd monsoon spell).
 

Date of Issue – July 19

Authorities in upper Pakistan should remain on alert through-out July

Two Bay of Bengal systems expected!

prec12
 
𝐄𝐱𝐭𝐫𝐚𝐜𝐭 𝐟𝐫𝐨𝐦 𝐉𝐮𝐥𝐲 𝟏𝟕 𝐮𝐩𝐝𝐚𝐭𝐞, “A fresh low pressure is expected to form in the Bay of Bengal around the mid of coming week. Its track is uncertain currently. Some (chances at 35 to 40%) isolated to scattered thunderstorms can form over SE Sindh during the end of the coming week. Similar intensity to the 2nd monsoon spell (3rd monsoon spell) can hit upper Pakistan during the last week of July, currently its probability of materializing is at 50%.”
 
⏺ 𝟐𝐧𝐝 𝐌𝐨𝐧𝐬𝐨𝐨𝐧 𝐬𝐩𝐞𝐥𝐥 𝐢𝐧 𝐍𝐨𝐫𝐭𝐡 (𝐉𝐮𝐥𝐲 𝟏𝟗 – 𝐉𝐮𝐥𝐲 𝟐𝟏, -𝟏 𝐝𝐚𝐲/+𝟏 𝐝𝐚𝐲 𝐞𝐫𝐫𝐨𝐫):
 
The forecast is valid, for more check here.
 
⏺ 𝐎𝐩𝐢𝐧𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐨𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐮𝐩𝐝𝐚𝐭𝐞 𝐚𝐬 𝐨𝐟 𝐉𝐮𝐥𝐲 𝟏𝟗 – 𝟐𝐧𝐝 𝐌𝐨𝐧𝐬𝐨𝐨𝐧 𝐬𝐩𝐞𝐥𝐥 𝐢𝐧 𝐒𝐨𝐮𝐭𝐡:
 
Monsoon axis will remain titled towards north, can slightly shift towards central parts. Since currently there is no prospect of any circulation developing in the Arabian Sea which creates a corridor, the upcoming Bay of Bengal system (BoB-02) might not move directly towards #Karachi. Strong to very strong southerly wind can also keep the system away from the south-western coast of Sindh. Due to the ‘expected’ formation of another circulation over Rajasthan and adjoining Gujarat, some (chances at 35% to 40%) thunderclouds can form over SE Sindh during the end of this week/early last week of July. SE Sindh can get isolated heavy downpour during this period. Few isolated thunderclouds can form near Karachi as well (as moisture will be present in the neighborhood) leading to light to moderate rain (chance 20% to 35% so far). A clear picture once the low actually forms and moves into India.
 
⏺ 𝟑𝐫𝐝 𝐌𝐨𝐧𝐬𝐨𝐨𝐧 𝐒𝐩𝐞𝐥𝐥 𝐢𝐧 𝐍𝐨𝐫𝐭𝐡
 
PWP upgrades the 3rd monsoon spell hitting upper Pakistan during the last week of July from 50% to 65%. In fact, BoB low (BoB-02) can be absorbed or weakened by the 3rd Monsoon spell as strong easterlies will move into upper Pakistan during the last week of July. (It was upgraded to 95% on July 23)
 
⏺𝐁𝐚𝐲 𝐨𝐟 𝐁𝐞𝐧𝐠𝐚𝐥 𝐭𝐨 𝐬𝐩𝐢𝐧 𝐚𝐧𝐨𝐭𝐡𝐞𝐫 𝐬𝐲𝐬𝐭𝐞𝐦
 
A strong monsoon low pressure (BoB-03) is also expected to form during the end of July.

 

Date of Issue – July 17 – July 24

Watch for flash and urban flooding in the coming week in upper Pakistan | Significant rain cannot be ruled out!

Monsoon axis after shifting towards far south due to the presence of a strong Arabian sea weather system (it has dissipated) is expected to return to the northern parts.

Two significant circulations can form in the coming days, one over NW India near New Delhi and other over KPK & adjoining northern Punjab. The Indian circulation will be sending moisture (strong easterlies) to its counter-part in Pakistan. The circulation in upper Pakistan can move from West to East due to westerlies.

  • Probability at 85% – Under the influence of both these weather systems, widespread rain with heavy to very heavy rain  (some areas can experience extremely heavy rain) in Islamabad, northern & NE Punjab, central & adjoining south KPK and Azad Kashmir (Islamabad, Rawalpindi, Muzaffarabad, Jhelum, Sialkot, Gujranwala, Chakwal, Mianwali, Sargodha, Dera Ismail Khan, Peshawar, Lahore and adjoining cities do fall under these areas) from July 19 till July 21 (-1/+1 day error). Scattered to widespread thunderstorms with heavy to chances of very heavy rain can also affect central Punjab (Faisalabad) during this period.
  • Probability at 55% – Isolated to scattered thunderstorms with chances of heavy rain can affect south Punjab as well.
  • Few stray thunderclouds (probability at 35%) can also cross into upper Sindh during mid of coming week. Chances of drizzle/sharp showers in Karachi.

Date of Issue – July 14

NE Punjab, upper Pakistan and Karachi witnessed Monsoon onset during the timeframe given by PWP

Widespread rains predicted in Sindh including Karachi after July 14, due to city’s infrastructure watch for urban flooding!

 Chances of scattered to widespread rain in Karachi (some heavy) on July 15/July 16.

On July 14, South of Karachi got torrential rain along with stormy winds though PWP had predicted the activity to take place on July 13 but it got delayed for 21 to 24 hours. The Portal observed similar weather patterns on July 17, 2020 and July 13/14 2021.

As stated on July 5, “Hit or miss chances are from July 10 to July 13/July 14 (+2, -1 day error). Around and Post July 14, Low pressure (Bay of Bengal) can be nearby Sindh which can cause scattered to widespread rain in Sindh including Karachi.”

  • The Arabian Sea system is absorbing the moisture from the Bay of Bengal low pressure (little change in dynamics), the ARB system is expected to either move towards the coast of Oman or dissipate near Makran coast in Pakistan. Its associated thunderstorms are towards the south of the low pressure that is over the open waters of Arabian sea.
  • The Bay of Bengal system is over east-central India and due to the Arabian Sea system, the moisture from BoB system is very likely to penetrate Karachi after July 14 (forecast issued on July 5 remains valid). 

Date of Issue – July 5 – July 12

From a sluggish start to vigorous revival, monsoon all set to make a splash!

With onset approaching, Widespread monsoon rains expected in NE Punjab and upper Pakistan!

Low pressure will also form in the Bay of Bengal, eyeing Karachi? 

There was a 55% possibility of monsoon onset during the first week of July (July 2/July 3/July 4), scattered light to moderate intensity rain did occur in NE Punjab and adjoining upper Pakistan during that period. The influence of a western disturbance was quite strong as some very strong winds were reported usually associated with western thundercloud. Very weak easterlies were observed over Pak-India border near Lahore. The reported activity does not meet the guidelines for monsoon hence are concluded as pre-monsoon.

A low pressure area (weather system) is expected to form in the Bay of Bengal during the end of 2nd week/early third week. As mentioned on June 20 (upgraded on June 25) by PWP, the 2nd week of July has a very high possibility (70% to 75%) of monsoon onset. Due to the similar runs by GFS and ECMWF, for the first time this year ‘strong’ easterlies will penetrate NE Punjab and and adjoining upper Pakistan (KPK and Azad Kashmir) by the end of 2nd week and widespread heavy thunderstorms can be nearby these areas by July 10 to July 13/July 14 (+2, -1 day error). During the same period, due to a presence of weak westerly and formation of a circulation over central Pakistan, few thunderclouds can also move into central an adjoining southern areas (NE Balochistan, South Punjab and adjoining upper Sindh) of the country with hit-or-miss chances of thunder rain (55% to 60%). We are expecting an official confirmation by the Government of Pakistan for monsoon onset and a weather advisory in next few days regarding it.

The low pressure is expected to move towards central India in a WSW direction due to the atmospheric pressure dropping near Gujarat. There is a possibility that it can cause scattered to widespread rain in Sindh including Karachi during the third week of July. Given such scenario, the Portal upgrades monsoon hitting Karachi around the third week (July 10 to July 17) of July from 45% to 58%.

Brief update on July 6 for Sindh

Hit or miss chances are from July 10 to July 13/July 14 (+2, -1 day error). Around and Post July 14, Low pressure can be nearby Sindh which can cause scattered to widespread rain in Sindh including Karachi.

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2021 Monsoon of Pakistan

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Monsoon Special articles for 2011

You can read special monsoon article by Pakistan Weather Portal (PWP), here;

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History of Climate of Pakistan

Following are the main factors that influence the weather over Pakistan.

  • Western Disturbances mostly occur during the winter months.
  • Fog occurs during the winter season and remains for weeks in upper Sindh, central Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and Punjab.
  • Southwest Monsoon occurs in summer from the month of June till September in the country.
  • Cyclones in Pakistan usually form during the summer months from late April till June and then from late September till November. They affect the coastal localities of the country.
  • Dust storms occur during summer months with peak in May and June, They are locally known as Andhi. These dust storms are quite violent.
  • Heat waves occur during May and June, especially in southern Punjab, central Balochistan and interior Sindh.
  • Continental air prevails during the period when there is no precipitation in the country.
  • Drought in Pakistan is an on and off phenomenon in the country.
  • Tsunami are rare, but this tsunami is the deadliest one yet.
  • Floods in Pakistan occur every year during monsoon season thousand people die in Pakistan as well as South Asia due to the massive floods.
  • Earthquakes in Pakistan  are the deadliest form of disaster in the country.
  • Worst Natural Disasters of Pakistan is the list of all the disasters in the country.