This is the first special monsoon article of 2011 and it will follow many more monsoon article

Monsoon to begin in Pakistan from June till September

Monsoon rainfall in Karachi 2010

The monsoon season of 2011 will start in just 2 months across the Sub-continent. The monsoon bring much awaited relief from the heat waves of May and joy to local farmers but is also brings death and destruction in this region of the world.

So what basically is Monsoon?

The word “monsoon” is derived from Arabic and Urdu words of mawsim (موسم) meaning weather. The English used to use this word to define a seasonal prevailing wind in the region blowing from the south-west between May and September and bringing heavy rainfalls to British India (India, Pakistan and Bangladesh).

How do Monsoon forms?

Before the monsoon season, the land and oceans start to heat up with the consequence that the air over the land warms faster and reaches a higher temperature than the air over the ocean. The hot air over the land tends to rise, creating an area of low pressure. This creates a steady wind blowing toward the land, bringing the moist near-surface air over the oceans with it, thus monsoon season begins.

Upcoming Monsoon forecast

A map showing the up coming Monsoon pattern in the Sub-Continent

The La-Nina which occur in Pacific Ocean have impact on monsoon. In 2010, La Nina was one of the positive factors to have caused good monsoon across the Indian Subcontinent . The La Nina condition which prevails even today is gradually weakening. As per Global Model, La-Nina condition will continue till May-June. Therefore a normal monsoon is likely in 2011.

Each year before the onset of monsoon that is 15 April to 15 July and also after its withdrawal that is 15 September to 15 December, there is always a distinct possibility of the cyclonic storm to develop in the north Arabian Sea. Karachi, Sindh coast and Gujarat coast in India are the likely target of these cyclones.

Some factors which affect Monsoon

There are many factors which affect monsoon;

El-Nino is also spanish word which means boy. It is the complete opposite of La-Nina. It caused severe drought in India and Northern parts of Pakistan in 2009 till early 2010 but unusually Hyderabad and Karachi in Pakistan received record-breaking monsoon rainfalls but that was an isolated event.

La-Nina is a spanish word which means girl. It is a global phenomenon which causes wet and cool conditions in the Sub-continent and other parts of the world. But some parts become dry due to La-Nina. In 2010, some countries witness major floods included Australia, Pakistan, Srilanka, Brazil etc and America witness increased hurricane activity that was all due to La-Nina. The La-Nina started in late June 2010 and will end in late June 2011. The last time this phenomenon occurred was 2003.

What could happen in Pakistan?

Many things could happen to Pakistan this year. So let us take a look;

Floods

In 2010, Pakistan witness a slow moving "tsunami"

Due to La-Nina, winter rains are still lashing the country in the month of spring which should have been some what hot and dry. Hail storms and snow have covered the mountainous region of Pakistan. If temperatures soar high in the month of May and June, which will definitely happen. Then floods can’t be ruled out keeping in mind that hot summer and monsoon rain accelerates the flood process.

Cyclone

Due La-Nina, there could be no cyclone in the Arabian sea this year due to cool temperatures so Karachiites could rest this year and Abdullah Shah Ghazi does not need to worry.

Precautions

The Governments of India, Pakistan and Bangladesh should start cleaning all drainage system to cope up with their citizens difficulties. Early warning should be given to help save lives. When riding a cycle or bike, drive slowly during rainfall. We Pakistanis should also listen to our governments as when they give us weather warning, like last year when Cyclone Phet was expected to hit Karachi, half of the population of Karachi went to the beach to welcome the cyclone.

you can read previous special monsoon article by Pakistan Weather Portal (PWP), here;

• Sub-continent awaits Monsoon season!-Part 1
• Monsoon threatened by Indian Ocean Dipole!-Part 2
• Monsoon 2011 and Cyclones – Sub-continent’s coastal threat?-Part 3
• Monsoon and its Dangers – How many people will die this year?– Part4
• When will Monsoon start over Pakistan? – In Detail!-Part 5
• Monsoon 2011: Backlash of the floods? – History of Pakistan floods in Detail-Part 6
• Monsoon rain of July 28, 2010 – Dark day, but more was ahead!-Part 7
• Much awaited monsoon showers lashes Karachi!-Part 8
• Little girl may return for Monsoon: La-Nina episode!-Part 9
• Heavy downpour in Karachi!-Part 10

To be continued….