Pakistan Weather Update & Monsoon Alert (June 11 – June 15)

/ June 11, 2011

This is a “live cyclone coverage” that started from May 24 and will end on June 15. From June 15, normal articles of Pakistan Weather Portal (PWP) will resume. The “special coverage” is now over. 

  • Local thunderstorms thunders Punjab

  • Heat wave to break

  • Remains of tropical cyclone may reach Lower Sindh 

A high pressure is over Pakistan and during the next many days no major weather events are likely all over the country excluding lower Sindh.

Factors

*High pressure will remain over Pakistan.

*Local isolated thunderstorms could develop over some parts of Pakistan.

*Tropical cyclone in the Arabian sea will reach coastal Sindh as remnants.

*Heat wave to lose intensity.

Thunderstorms over Pakistan

There might be some localised thunderstorms over parts of Punjab and Khyber that would cause dust storms and light rainfall in some cities. Following cities of Punjab and Khyber might get rainfall;

  • Thunder showers in Islamabad till June 13.
  • Light thunder showers in Lahore on June 13.
  • Thunder showers in Multan till June 12.
  • Thunder showers in Peshawar till June 12
  • Thunder rainfall in Murree till June 13.

Heat Wave in Pakistan

The heat wave in Northern parts of Pakistan will remain high but in lower parts they might decrease. Following are the temperatures of following cities;

  • In Islamabad, temperatures will remain 38°C – 40°C.
  • In Lahore, temperatures will remain 42°C-45°C.
  • In Multan, temperatures will remain just like Lahore with slight variations.
  • In Peshawar, temperature will remain 38°C-40°C
  • In Quetta, temperature will remain 33°C-36°C
  • In Nawabshah, temperatures will remain unusually low that is till 43°C.
  • In Karachi, temperatures will remain between 33°C-35°C.

Tropical cyclone in Sindh??

No, there are no chances of tropical trouble in Sindh. The remnants of tropical cyclone 01, which has not been named officially, may reach coast of Sindh on June 13 before hitting Gujarat. It will not have much intensity and will only produce strong winds with drizzle to light rainfall.

According to the GFS, the system will move through the coast of Sindh bringing showers while according to BBC, the system will remain stationary near Mumbai. PWP will monitor the remnants of this storm.

Updates regarding ARB 01

All the updates will be published below;

(Update 1:00 pm PST June 13)-LAST UPDATE

“light rainfall likely in coastal Sindh – Drizzle in Karachi”

The depression has weakened to a well marked low, IMD has stopped monitoring the storm. The system had caused very heavy rainfall in Gujarat, it is moving towards NW direction very slowly and it is expected to become a weak remnant low pressure. It is not a significant weather system now. Moisture has reached lower Sindh.

Under its influence, light intensity showers expected in Keit Bandar, Shah Bandar and Umer Kot, while drizzle is expected in Karachi from June 13 night till June 14 morning.

(Update 5:30 pm PST June 12)

“More heavy rainfall with strong winds in Gujarat for 24 hours”

The depression is weakening very rapidly and during 24 hours the depression will weaken and become a remnant low, it is moving in a NW direction towards Sindh but the wind shear from the east and dry air over North is destroying it every mintue. The system is also some what stationary, It is moving in a very slow speed in NW. Its moisture will reach coastal Sindh on June 13 morning and some steady, but spotty drizzle could occur in Karachi and lower Sindh from June 13 night.

The JTWC has stopped monitoring the system. The depression will be down graded to be remnant low by the IMD tonight.  The system is 500 km away from Karachi.

(Update 10:50 am PST June 12)

“Rapid weakening ahead”

The depression ARB 01 (Tropical cyclone 01) is likely to move along the Gujarat coast and start to weaken rapidly in 24 hours in NW direction, the storm will lose depression status due to wind shear from east. Its remnants will move in NW direction for another 24 hours before finally dieing.

No rainfall likely in lower Sindh expect drizzle, but in lower Gujarat some very heavy rainfall likely with strong wind storms. Partly cloudy with drizzle  in Karachi with fast winds likely. No major event likely!

(Update 9:00 am PST June 12)

“Sea to be rough – drizzle in Karachi likely”

The depression in the Arabian sea has moved in a WNW direction during the last 6 hours at 4 knot. The depression is some what stationary due to slow speed. It is expected to move in a NW direction in 24 hours. The storm will move along the coast of Gujarat (no landfall), with heavy rainfall and strong gusty winds.

According to national reports the storm is 560 km away from South east of Karachi while according to international reports the storm is still 700 km away from Karachi.

(Update 11:13 pm PST June 11)

“Following IMD now, since they are regional head of South Asia.”

A depression formed near Gujarat and Maharashtra coast on June 11, while according to JTWC (Joint typhoon warning centre) a tropical storm has formed. The depression is likely to further intensify during next 24 to 48 hours.

The storm is about 180 km northwest of Mumbai and 700 km southeast of Karachi. It is moving slowly northwestwards initially. Its pressure is  996 hPa. Stay tune!

People’s forecast!

What if your wishes come true. Pakistan Weather Portal (PWP) wants to know its reader’s thought;

Monsoon News 2011

  • Mumbai and Gujarat battered by heavy rainfalls

  • Pre-monsoon showers likely in Sindh

India

Heavy monsoon showers have rocked Mumbai and many other cities on the western coast of India due to developement of a tropical cyclone, which has not been officially named yet. On the eastern parts of India, the monsoon has further advanced into many parts due to developement of a low pressure in the Bay of Bengal. Rain in Mumbai was above 100 mm.

Pakistan

No pre-monsoon showers likely in Pakistan till July. But lower Sindh could have some showers due to the remnants of tropical cyclone.

Under this influence, light monsoon showers with strong winds (40 mph to 45 mph) could occur in Karachi, Thatta, Badin, Keti Bandar, Shah Bandar, Mirpur Khas and other adjoining cities and towns from June 13 night. These remnants could cause the sea to become rough but not threatening. Isolated heavy rainfall could occur in cities near Gujarat in Sindh.

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123 thoughts on “Pakistan Weather Update & Monsoon Alert (June 11 – June 15)”

  2. What if the cyclone regains strength? Will you update us ?

    I enjoy whole day specially the time when eye was developed !

    Baber your prdic become true….

    • Thank you…You see the cyclone coverage is still continuing..only the special coverage is canceled…i will update hour by hour regarding this storm…if it threatens Sindh as depression then special coverage will begin again..

  3. i think there will no premonsoon rain in karachi except some drizzle.wait for monsoon season hope it would be rain in monsoon.

  7. 111500Z POSITION NEAR 20.0N 71.7E.
    TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 01A (ONE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY, 390 NM
    SOUTHEAST OF KARACHI, PAKISTAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 05 KTS
    OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
    SHOWS A FULLY EXPOSED EYE FEATURE WITH GROWING CONVECTION ALONG THE
    SOUTHEASTERN FEEDER BAND. HOWEVER, THE MAJORITY OF THE CONVECTION
    REMAINS DETACHED TO THE WEST OF THE CENTER. THE CURRENT INTENSITY
    IS SUPPORTED BY DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND KNES AND EXTRAPOLATED
    FROM NEARBY SHIP OBSERVATIONS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE
    SYSTEM IS JUST TO THE SOUTH OF A RIDGE AXIS IN AN AREA OF LOW TO
    MODERATE (05-10 KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THE SYSTEM IS TRACKING
    ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A WEAK LOW- TO MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL
    RIDGE OVER NORTHERN INDIA. IT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TRACKING
    NORTHWESTWARD AND MAKE LANDFALL IN THE GUJARAT PENINSULA AND
    DISSIPATE AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND BY TAU 36.
    THE LIMITED NUMERICAL GUIDANCE ARE IN POOR AGREEMENT WITH WBAR ON
    THE EXTREME LEFT OF THE ENVELOPE AND NOGAPS TO THE RIGHT. THIS TRACK
    FORECAST IS JUST TO THE RIGHT OF CONSENSUS AND RELIES HEAVILY ON
    PERSISTENCE AND SYNOPTIC PATTERN.

  8. thunderbolt can u tell us that still is there any chances of rain in karachi plzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz tell us

    • Yes we will receive rain from this system …. Wait for tomorrow morning when sun shines over Arabian Sea ARB01 again churn up … like today…..and we will get rain with this later on….Monday-Tue…

      By the way cyclone eye did not hit the Gujarat cost… it just sweep away …

  9. #BabarBhai

    You have said in your latest update that “The depression is likely to further intensify during next 24 to 48 hours.”

    So, if it intensifies, then will it threat Karachi?

    Please tell.

    Thanks!

  10. Baber I think Low Pr.. will cross in-between PAK and OMAN cost over the deep sea ridge…..

  11. @ Thunderbolt & KM

    Please Reply

    Please tell me that the system is coming to karachi cost or not ? or even do you feel that there is any chance of rain still persist in karachi and also i would like to know that the system is continously playing here and there so is there any chance as looking PMD satellite image is seems that it is leaving india for karachi is it correct ?

  12. Yes we will receive rain from this system …. Wait for tomorrow morning when sun shines over Arabian Sea ARB01 again churn up … like today…..and we will get rain with this later on….Monday-Tue…

    Mumbai will get another spell of heavy rain tomorrow morning ….as you can see the left arm is coming in right direction and this will help to regain strength of cyclone again…..

    Wait and watch…. Baber bahi will correct if I am wrong…

  13. Attn : Every body & KM especially

    PMD has issued a warning just few minutes agao what you say now is khi in danger once again ?

  14. First of all i would surely appreciate the work that babar has done he has keep us updated with all the latest happenings abt weather changes when it happens as it happens but here i would reali like to say that i personally disappointed with the behavior of the cyclone keila at one time it was abt generate some good heavy rains in karachi by almost today but suddenly shockingly it changed direction as well as gears every one was debating abt the cyclone preparations were in full swing to go to the sea view but what can we say still we have to wait for the rains so that some relief should be gained frm the severe heat and load shedding. still i believe that anything could happen bcoz weather is smthng it keeps changing hour by hour day by day

    “KARACHI AWAITING FOR HEAVY RAINS HOPE IT OCCURS AS SOON AS POSSIBLE”

  15. Mumbai is quite a bit lucky when it comes to rain last 24 hours almost 69cm of rains means 690 millimeters wowwwwwwwww man why all the rainy systems is towards mumbai plzzzzz cme to karachi 🙂

  16. Heavy rain forecast today
    According to a weather department official, Colaba (south Mumbai) recorded 95.6 mm of rainfall while Santacruz (in the western suburbs) recorded rainfall of 166.6 mm and the eastern suburbs received 45.8 mm in 12 hours till Saturday evening.Heavy rain is also being forecast in some parts of the city Sunday.

    Vessel drifts towards sea link
    An unmanned vessel, MV Wisdom, which was being tugged towards Alang from Colombo, went adrift due to rough seas 12 nautical miles from Mumbai. The ship then drifted towards the Mumbai coast leading to fears that it would collide with the Bandra Worli sea link. The coast guard sent an aircraft to locate the vessel.

  20. Good news,

    The cyclone is again gaining strength, secondly, PWP in there latest update said that the cyclone will not make landfall in Gujrat, but will only move along it, so this means that it will come near Karachi, with good intensity… 🙂

    Babar bhai, please tell me, Am I right?

  22. @KM

    Latest satellite images from Pakmet suggesting that the system is moving towards Sindh & Karachi.

    Please comment.

    • I was also trying to say the same thing..

      Babar bhai, please tell us that what is this??

      Thanks!

  26. KM please …

    Tell us that is ther any chance that the storm may reach sindh coast or will it intensify again if it is not making landfall in gujrat ?

    Please answer

  28. it wont reach towards us , untill unless some miracle happens , rains are gone as well… lets see thou

      • My message to JAL is that please you should not say anything or bad word to M.Faisal. He is also member and have right to say what he knows and feels. Everybody has right to express their feelings and what they knows

  37. babar bhai nw i think its jst meaningless to debate on this cyclone nthng is going to happen 😦 plzzzz update us nw abt the upcoming monsoon.

  38. According to latest the satellite images it seems that this system is drifting towards Sindh and Karachi. My hopes are still on the higher side.

    @KM Any comment ?

  39. it wont come guys , it’ll dissipate in coming 24hours and very low chances of rains as well

  42. at 1400 hrs Sat pic the Gujrat cost is clear now this cloud system start moving towards US……..

    🙂

  44. Updated at: 1138 PST, Sunday, June 12, 2011 GEO TV

    KARACHI: Arabian Sea low pressure has again intensified and the probable sea storm may trigger rains with strong winds by this evening in the coastal areas, while the fishermen have been advised not to sail in the open sea, Metrological Department said here this morning.

    On the other hand, the mercury in Punjab and Khayber Pakhtunkhaw somewhat dropped down after several cities had received showers.

    The Met Department said that Thatta, Badin and some coastal areas of Karachi were likely to witness rains with strong winds by this evening, as the low pressure at 560 kilometer southeast of Karachi has again intensified.

    Met Department has cautioned Sindh fishermen refrain from sailing in open sea on Sunday and Monday.

    While most of the cities in Sindh province were still in the grip of hotwave, which keep hitting the towns and cities all through the day.

    Khayber Pukhtunkhaw areas including Swat, Mansehra and Mardan besides Gilgit Baltistan and other areas the intense hot weather has somewhat mellowed down following yesterday’s showers.

    Punjab areas including Faisalabad and Bhawalpur witnessed strong winds overnight, while the mercury in Islamabad, Lahore, Sargodha and Gojranawala dropped down after last night rains.

    Meanwhile, Met office said that different towns and cities of Punjab were likely to receive rains with strong winds

    In Balochistan, Naseerabad, Jafferabad, Sibi and other towns were sweltering in intense heat, Met Department said.

  45. It is true that cyclone is lost the strength but still this is a very big and active cloud system ….. Wait it rain in Karachi…..

    • the mass of cloud which is currently visible will not last long courtesy extremely dry air over the north of the system, by tomorrow it will be a very feeble low and will not make any sort of impact on Khi other than faint drizzle, i think we all were expecting too much from Arabian sea low contrary to the forecast of most international models (except for GFS ) which from day 1 had ruled out possibility of any low approaching Pakistani Coastline. Nevertheless there is always light in the tunnel, another low has formed in bay of Bengal which as per initial estimates of some models will move westwards and enter Arabian sea this time next week. This could trigger heavy rains over entire Sindh. But its too early to predict anything. Couple more days and situation will be much clear

      • from where do u get to know abt the formation of low in the bay of bengal but if it wll enter the arabian sea hw is it possible that it will trigger rains over the entire sindh??? this could be a pre-monsoon activity

  46. what is latest update is some rain expected in karachi tonighht or tomarrow . plz tell me.


  47. babar bhai this is the pakmet stellite imagery it is showing that somewhat storm is very close to karachi i guess if i am nt mistaken plzzzz tell me if i am wrong or not???

  48. babar bhai after the monsoon is there any chances persists of formation of cyclone in the Arabian sea or it is too early to question?? secondly everywhere it is raining in Pakistan except for sindh especially karachi why do u have an answer babar bhai??????
    ” its a million dollar question”

    • pre or post, all we need is some good rains, ins’t it? 🙂 have been following some Indian weather blogs and they have confirmed formation of this low, different models are predicting different track for the system, couple of models show this low moving into the heartland of india and then entering arabian sea near gujrat next week, but as i wrote earlier it can;t be concluded that system is certain to come here, atleast there is some development which should keep us all interested 🙂

  50. now imd is showing widespread rainfall in katch and diu some heavy shower will come in badin and thatta and some in karachi hope so during next 2 days.a low pressure area will born in bay of bengal after 2 days then it will strengthen and it will come towards sindh. i think rain will start from 20 june

  51. a low pressure area will form in bay of bengal after 2 days.it will strengthen and will come towards us. i think rain starts from 20 june in karachi lets see.

  53. when will we hear confirm rain news for karachi? This kind of heat and sunshine is unbearable.

  54. #BabarBhai

    Is there still any chance for the formation of a new cyclone in this month of June?? before the mosoon of July???

    • no u cannot rule out the possibilities , cyclone can still form out their until unless proper monsoon advances the arabian sea =p

  57. hello my prediction that proper rain in karachi will start from 21 june because of a low pressure which will form in bay of bengal after 2 days.

  58. karachi guyssssssss pray for heavy rain in karachiiiiiiiii, i think inshallah tomorrow we will recieve heavy rain

      • that was the report of electronic media and as well as print media today some clouds r cuminggggggggggggggggggg from d east i hope it wil b rain 2day in karachi

  61. there is no chance of any depression ,;low pressure. and weather system this monsoon in karachi..which bring rain in karachi.

  62. hello guys. i think proper rain will start from 21 june in karachi because of low pressure area form after 2 days in bay of bengal lets see. heavy rain forcast for kutch and diu within 48 hours by that low pressure which was strom according by pwp,

  63. karachi metro,if i m nt wrong 2day is some chances of rain in karachi,because today i m seeing some rainy clouds over karachiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiii.

  65. Guys inshALLAH it will rain today or tomorrow even if its light rain … patchy and wavy clouds are coming from east which are precursor to rain … dont lose hope as another low is about to born in Bay of bengal which is uptill now forecasted to travel west towards gujarat and sindh … on the other hand two western disturbance are forecasted to cross into subcontinent during that bay low formation which will result in LOW to stay for a longer period in water and attain atleast strong depression status so by the time it will reach here it will be a powerfull system capable of delivering 100+mm rains so pray that this low delivers much needed rainfall in karachi inshALLAH

  67. @Zulfi

    yes there are rainy clouds, they can turn into rainy clouds in a matter of minutes.

    @Zaka

    these patchy and wavy clouds are called cirro-cumulus 🙂

  68. IN GFS images a weather system is moving n will reach in siindh next week. there is chance of good rain in karachi next week.

  73. I just want to know, why our coastal area do not receive much rain as compare to neighbouring countries.
    if system is created it usually first move to India, thr rain falls like hell…..and by the time it reaches here, either it lose strength or it pass by few km.

  74. yes mahmud i also want to know the answer that y costal areas of arabian sea in india get so much rainfall and y our costal areas dont get so much rainfall?y the arabian sea is not so much acrivated in our costal areas?

    • Its because the coastal regions in arbaian sea in India are perpendicular to the south west monsoon winds while the winds which reach pakistan, rajasthan have to travel via land in India and curve back from bay of bengal. By the time it reaches pakistan and rajasthan. It looses all its moisture content . Thats why rajasthan and pakistan get less rain.

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