Pakistan Weather Update & Monsoon Alert (August 10 – August 17)

monsoon-2013-pwp

  • Intense rains coming for North!

  • Weak Spell possible in south Punjab and Sindh

  • How long the monsoon will stay?

Precipitation and Temperature till August 17

Precipitation and Temperature till August 17

Pakistan has now entered it’s second last month of monsoon and in some years August proves to be the last month for monsoon in the country. The northern areas are getting close for their eighth monsoon spell which can bring intense rain to the upper parts. Parts of South Punjab and Sindh may witness isolated showers/rain during that period.

Factors – Present Conditions

*Western trough ’17′ is over the northern areas of the country.

*Low pressure over south Utter Pradesh.

*Upper air cyclonic circulation in the Bay of Bengal.

Other Factors – Effect on Monsoon

Negative Indian Ocean Dipole and weak La-Nina have developed

Negative Indian Ocean Dipole and weak La-Nina have developed

*La-Nina: National Committee to Study El Niño has confirmed the presence of the La Niña in Peru’s sea, eastern Pacific ocean, South America.

*Negative Indian Ocean Dipole: Temperatures have slightly cooled in the Bay of Bengal and adjoining Arabian sea. Sea water temperatures remains unchanged around eastern African coast as compared to the previous image of July 15.

Eighth Monsoon Spell starting soon

Eighth Monsoon spell following it’s predecessor, is also focused in northern Punjab, Azad Kashmir and adjoining Khyber Pakhtunkhwa however like fifth and sixth monsoon spell it can affect the central and southern parts as well though the intensity is different from the past spells. Following is the rainfall recorded on August 10;

  • Islamabad got 134 mm.
  • Rawalpindi got 109 mm.

Northern Areas – 100+ mm rain possible around Independence day!

125 mm rain is being showed in this map

125 mm rain is being showed in this map (Red spot indicates extreme rain)

“Alert: Scattered heavy downpour to isolated very heavy downpour likely in northern areas of Punjab, Azad Kashmir and adjoining few parts of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa on August 13/August 14”

Rain with thunder/lightning likely from August 12 (+1,-1 day error) in Islamabad, northern Punjab (Lahore, Rawalpindi, Murree city, Jhelum, Gujrat, Sialkot, Norwal, Sheikpura, Gujranwala, Attock, Mandi Bahauddin and few adjoining districts), Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (Abbottabad, Manshera, Haripur, Swabi, Swat, Peshawar, Landi Kotal, Hangu, Kohat, Khyber Agency, Khurram Agency and few adjoining districts) and Azad Kashmir (Muzaffarabad, Kotli, Mirpur, Rawalakot and few adjoining areas). Heavy to isolated very heavy downpour can occur in Islamabad, northern Punjab, Azad Kashmir (Kotli, Mirpur, Rawalakot) and few parts of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (Kohat, Kurram Agency, Khyber Agency, Orakazai Agency and few adjoining districts) on August 13/August 14. As per COLA model, rain is exceeding 75 mm to 100+ mm in the northern areas, supported by various other models including GFS US and GFS UK.

There are chances of rain with thunder/lightning in Faisalabad, Okara, Pak pattan, Sahiwal, South Waziristan, Dera Ismail Khan and few adjoining areas during this period (more chances from August 13). The Eighth monsoon spell can last till a week in the northern areas however it’s peak intensity is from August 13/August 14. Decrease in intensity can occur from August 16.

Central Areas: Weakened rain from north can move towards south Punjab

Eighth Monsoon spell as a weak spell can start affecting this area of Pakistan from August 14/August 15, chances of showers/rain with thunder/lightning in south Punjab (Bahawalnagar, Bahawalpur, Multan, Dera Ghazi Khan and few adjoining districts) as some thunderclouds can form over eastern and western parts of south Punjab. During this weekend, chances of drizzle/showers in western parts of south Punjab due to thunderstorm formation over north-eastern Balochistan.  As per COLA model only, south Punjab is coming under 15 mm layer while few pockets are reaching 20 mm. GFS shows below 10 mm rain layer in parts of south Punjab

Frequent thunderstorm formation is being witnessed in various areas of Balochistan, under that influence rain with thunder/lightning likely in Khuzdar, Awaran, Panjgur, Barkhan, Dera Bugti, Musa Khel, Zhob, Qila Saifullah, Loralai, and few adjoining districts, chances of isolated heavy falls there.

South: Activity remains isolated

‘Karachi becomes hub of drizzle/showers again’

Mostly dry weather with passing clouds (increase during evening/night) is expected in most parts of Sindh. Coastal areas especially Karachi can remain under the influence of drizzle/showers. Around August 14/August 15, there are chances of showers/rain with thunder/lightning in Karachi, Thatta, Jamshoro, Dadu, Nawabshah, Larkana, Badin, Sanghar, Khairpur, Sukkur and few adjoining districts. Slight possibility in Tharparkar and Mirpur Khas district. As per COLA model, mentioned areas of Sindh remain around 10 mm layer while other areas of Sindh are under 5 mm to traces layer. As per GFS, western Sindh including Karachi are coming under 5 mm layer.

The coastal district of Lasbella, Balochistan has good chances of rain (10 mm to 20 mm) during this period.

Ninth Monsoon spell coming?

COLA and GFS shows heavy/severe thunderstorms during 8th spell

Alert: COLA and GFS shows heavy/severe thunderstorms during 8th spell in North

GFS and COLA shows another monsoon spell starting right after the eighth monsoon spell weakens in the northern areas. New developments by numerical model shows monsoon activity weakening significantly from Pakistan in September, possible withdrawal. Long range models shows one to two western disturbances affecting northern areas in September, nothing meaningful for central and southern areas.

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127 thoughts on “Pakistan Weather Update & Monsoon Alert (August 10 – August 17)

  1. Thanks for the article. Hot day on eid for us!! But happy to know we will be getting some good rain again. And happy for Karachi as well 🙂

  2. I’m sure Sindh would start getting heavy rains from the last week of august. That’s exactly when our real monsoon starts =D

  3. Now that weak La-Nina has developed, we can expect strong weather systems heading towards Sindh from the last days of august.

  4. Bro what about Karachi and Hyderabad? weather channel is showing 60% prec chance in hyd from 15 to 16 which mostly turns into T-storms that includes 80 to 100% prec chances, last week same weather was shown by them nd it poured really well. So what do you think this weekend will happen?

  5. Today there are two pockets in the Dust Cloud, one in the south along the coast of Pakistan and the other in the north, and there is a storm in the south today, so there may be rain to flooding in places.

    Otherwise the big batch of monsoon moisture, as you can see at http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/indian/images/xxirmet5n.GIF is east of India, but there is a branch of moisture moving westward towards Pakistan along the southern edge of the Himalayas.

    That moisture from India may take advantage of either or both of the Pakistan Dust Cloud pockets, and cause from rain to flooding, depending if the moisture is stalled in either pocket.

  6. AOA Eid Mubarak Babar bhai humari City Mirpurkhas Sindh m 22th August ko ps64 pr by Elections hein kya 22th August se pehly koi Heavy Rain ho sakti hai???our 22nd August waly din Mirpurkhas City ka Weather kesa hoga…ps64 m Mirpurkhas City+Hussain Bux Mari+Balouchabad and Old Mirpur shamil hain…!

  7. Today a big huge clear pocket has opened up in the Dust Cloud in central and northern Pakistan, and I would like to hear from anyone living in that part of the county, how on how far the visibility is when the Cloud is gone.

  8. When the Pakistan Express Tribune last September, wrote an article about my Dust Cloud idea at http://tribune.com.pk/story/431055/revolutionary-claim-can-we-predict-floods-yes-says-american-climatologist/..

    The quote from the article says that… “The theory may be tested out before accepting it, but it is plausible. We will definitely look into it,” said Dr Qamaruz-Zaman Chaudhry, who is currently Pakistan’s Federal Adviser on Climate Change. Has anyone contacted this advisor to see what his current opinion is of the Dust Cloud idea?

    • Craig, at least in Rawalpindi/Islamabad, the visibility remained around 2 to 2.5 miles which is about 4 times less than what the visibility usually is on a clear day. Same visibility for Lahore and Sialkot Airport.

  9. Great article Mr. Babar. Let’s all hope that the rains feed our water systems to an intensity they can take. What worries me is the fact that the areas that are going to be hit hard with rains already have wet soils and won’t be able to absorb most of the precipitation that we are headed towards.
    Btw slight correction, when Islamabad zero point got 134mm, Shamasabad station of Rawalpindi accumulated a total 123 mm.

    • Thanks Zaeem 🙂
      Yes there is a great concern about the northern areas due to upcoming heavy rains.
      The article was published before PMD’s evening rain report however on Monsoon of Pak page the rain stats are correct.

      • Well, it happened! Didn’t it? 😉 205 mm at Saidpur, 109 mm at Zero Point and 107 mm at Shamasbad At Kattarian RWP, the water level rose to 24 feet and sirens for evacuation went off!

  10. Will intense rain come to karachi, Hyderabad by tomorrow or not?? the weather is fully cloudy here in hyd today. what you say ?

  11. Rains in North will decrease or cease completely in September??
    Is there another spell after this one in North?
    If rains stop in North starting September, will the temperatures remain low??

    • As of now they can decrease significantly in September.
      Yes another spell can come to North, its intensity is weak from 8th spell.
      Temperatures rise slowly in the month of September, mainly from last weeks of the month.

  12. TYPHOON UTOR moisture is headed westward towards India and Pakistan, with the bulk moving at 5 degrees westward per day, currently at 19 deg. north and 113 deg. east, which will put the remains of the moisture on top of Pakistan about the 23rd, unless it slows down or dissipates.

    However, rain clouds are being pushed by the outer edge of the typhoon towards India today, and may bring rain to India and Pakistan before the 23rd. If the Dust Cloud stays where it is today, that might stall the clouds and cause floods in India or Pakistan or both next week.

  13. What is your current expectation for Lahore in this spell? There had been a lot of warnings of very heavy rains in lahore but so far nothing special has hit lahore yet.

  14. so means it can give heavy rains dear as it is low pressure and moving towards central… so we can expect in karachi?

  15. Today, the bulk of the moisture from the typhoon is still about 40 degrees east of Pakistan, around Vietnam, but some of the outer clouds hit Arabia today, probably causing floods in the Empty Quarter and northern Oman. Perhaps this causing wadis to flow that have not seen running water for a very long time. And in a few months, maybe grasses will grow and wildflowers will bloom.

  16. Today, the Dust Cloud has formed a north-south solid wall that you can see at http://www.ecoseeds.com/clouds_8-15-13.png splitting Pakistan in half, and any moisture left over from the Typhoon may hit that wall and stall for a day or two between now and the end of next week. The main pocket of typhoon moisture is still 40 degrees to the east, but you can see how large an area the typhoon has produced rain over, since it is still going to be raining in Arabia for the next few days in Oman and the Empty Quarter.

  17. babar you are saying that there are chances of heavy rainfalls in western parts of south punjab now still it does not falls.

      • Yes wrote August 14/August 15, it happened on August 14 and was expecting this activity to continue till August 15 but it has weakened rapidly by giving light to moderate rains. DG Khan got 28 mm today while 93 yesterday.

  18. Intermittent rains in lahore since yesterday with occasional heavy showers. How much more is expected becauae pmd is forecasting heavy rains for friday and saturday too in north-east punjab(gujranwala,lahore).

  19. Until the moisture left over from the typhoon passes Pakistan, and that may take until the end of next week, it will be very difficult to predict where rainfall will and will not occur in the region, because the storms are not moving as unified batches of moisture currently.

    Today, there is a huge batch of moisture still 40 degree east of Pakistan and another huge batch forming at 50 degrees east. What is for certain, is that the wall of the Dust Cloud is very strong over Pakistan right now, and slicing the moisture like a knife’s edge—storms to the east of the wall and drought to the west.

    I am hoping that someone from the Pakistan government weather service can get involved and follow along with this season’s daily Dust Cloud and monsoon interactions? Is there anyone from the government reading these posts already, and anyone looking into this Pakistan Dust Cloud issue yet?

  20. @ Dremann Yes, I am looking actively at dust cloud situation. Wish local met can get involved. However, they are not concerned with it. May be they are not even aware of it . 😀

    • Is there a way to get the Pakistan government weather service involved, especially regarding the Dust Cloud issues, that are causing droughts and floods for the country? Perhaps a symposium about the Dust Cloud?

  21. babar bhai kya Sindh waly yeh samjhy k Moonsoon 2013 un k liye End ho gya ya koi Speel aany k chances hein Sindh m tmam models dry weather bta rhy hein aagy mgr sirf PMD waly our NDM waly keh rhy hein Sindh m heavy speels hongy August k end our Bilkhosoos September m…!

  22. Why is monsoon behaving like winter rains in lahore? Mostly in monsoon a thundercloud affects and dissipates but it is constant cloud cover since few days with drizzle and occasional moderate showers.

  23. Any increase in the strength of the monsoon–for example caused by Global Warming– or any changes in the location of the Pakistan-Arabia Dust Cloud, is going to make changes in the monsoon patterns that have not been seen for many centuries.

    For example, when the Dust Cloud was strong and stable, for a few thousand years prior to 1985, substantial floods in Arabia only occurred about every 200 years. Now they are occurring sometimes several times a year.

    So unless something is done locally to weaken the Dust Cloud effects like with revegetation– the easier solution–or globally lower the CO2 being produced, which seems impossible to do, then we need to get used to variations of droughts and floods and unusual patterns,

    I have been interested in commenting on this weather blog, because what Pakistan and Arabia do to eventually control and eliminate the Dust Cloud, will help everyone in the northern hemisphere. Your floods and droughts impact all the rest of us downstream of the monsoonal moisture flow, You are just the first to experience the terrible effects of the Dust Cloud, and your people hold the potential solution for us all.

      • Yes, there are other major factors that control monsoon like ENSO conditions, Indian ocean temperatures, Jet streams, MJO Index etc. If I am not mistaken, parts of Balochistan witnessed stormy rains few weeks back but there was a presence of dust cloud over the province.

  24. During current monsoon (from last week of june till now), sialkot got around 1050mm of rain, Islamabad got around 900mm of rain and Lahore got around 750mm of rain. Therefore we can say a good season in North-East of Pakistan.

    • Yes the northern tip and few parts of Balochistan had good monsoon rains. North Punjab and adjoining areas, I think they had better rains than last year.

  25. The importance of the Dust Cloud is that you can use it to predict Pakistan rain, droughts and floods. With the Dust Cloud absent from the north during the monsoon, you can see that about one meter of rainfall could be normal for the whole country, if it was eradicated from the country by not letting the soil to get airborne across the nation.

    The USA was faced with this same situation in the 1930s of Dust Clouds and droughts and the federal government established an agency originally called the Soil Conservation Service and now the Natural Resources Conservation Service. With their 12,000 employees in offices across the country, their whole purpose is to work with private land owners to keep the soil in their fields, and out of the rivers and air.

  26. James DeMeo from Oregon Biophysical Research Laboratory, Ashland, Oregon, wrote me today–replanting barren arid lands, was “triggering clouds and rains, while nearby just over the border in Egypt, it remained quite dry… Convective clouds formed on the Israeli side, but stopped exactly along that cease-fire line of their mutual border. Other studies of the period indicated that the hard-pan areas of the Sahara could be brought back with grasses and shrubs merely by fencing them off …”

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