Heavy monsoon rains could hit Karachi again

Karachi is experiencing one of its wettest monsoon seasons. The fragile infrastructure of the city is recovering from the previous rains that sub-merged much of the metropolis in the month of July. The rains are battering the city with almost a 7 to 10 day gap. The unofficial stats of the last three major rains were;

• July 6: 75 mm, more focus in the South
• July 17: 110 mm, more focus in the South
• July 26 and July 27: 185 mm (Two-day total), more focus in the North

Now another monsoon spell can rattle the city.

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Karachi Update: August 6 till August 9

A weather system, whose origins can be traced back to eastern India and the Bay of Bengal will travel towards Indian Gujarat and adjoining Sindh from August 5 where the moist winds/circulation from the Arabian Sea can strengthen the system into a strong monsoon system by August 6/August 7.

Under the influence of this weather system, temperatures in Karachi can be near record-breaking for the month of August.

• High temperatures on August 6 and August 7: Mercury can be in the range of 37°C to 40°C, feel-like temperature can reach 42°C to 44°C, with an error of (+2/-2°C). Highest temperature recorded in August is 41.7 °C on August 9, 1964.

• By late August 6/August 7, the system will be over the coast of Indian Gujarat and adjoining Sindh. Over the weekend, it will move in a SSW or WSW direction towards the open waters of Arabian Sea (ECMWF shows cluster of thunderstorms crossing Oman and reaching as far as Saudi Arabia and UAE).
  • • Some strong thunderstorms coupled with gusty winds can form over eastern and coastal Sindh that could affect Karachi from late August 6 till August 8 with intervals, leading to heavy rain and urban flooding in vulnerable areas (winds can range from 45 mph to 60 mph, areas in south and east of Karachi can experience higher winds). The system will start weakening from August 8 evening, weak thunder clouds can form (chances 55%) on August 9. This forecast is with an error of +1/-1 day whereas the probability of such events unfolding is 75%.

Concerned authorities and citizens are requested to remain vigilant through-out the month of August in view of more torrential rains.

This post has been published in partnership with a Karachi-based NGO. We request our readers to follow the guidelines issued by the Government of Pakistan in event of any severe weather. Further details can be found on http://www.pmd.gov.pk/