The relationship between El Nino & rainfall patterns in Pakistan is complex, & is influenced by various factors such as oceanic & regional atmospheric variability. It is evident that El Nino has a negative effect on monsoon however some anomalies exist.
Researchers linked regional temps with various intensities of El Nino over different periods of time to predict the outcome of the monsoon. Taking that into account, 2023 resembles 1986 in terms of Episode while 1983 in Temp. Thus, between these 2 years.
Two prominent El Nino Years of the past century
Declared as the deadliest flood in the history of Pakistan by the Government (before 2010, 2011, and 2022). It resulted in the loss of $1 billion to the country’s economy.
The 1997-1998 El Nino event had a mixed impact on Pakistan. While 1997 mainly saw nearly normal to slightly above normal monsoon rains that resulted in floods, the latter half of the year mainly post-1998 Q2 was marked by drought conditions.
To conclude, El Nino is associated with deficit monsoon precipitation across Pakistan and India. It will be a sigh of relief for the people of the South. But we need to be coherent as well. Based on past credible literature, regional oscillation in SSTs can negate its impact on a smaller scale. Below is the chart of possible estimates of El Nino developing over different monthly episodes
Pakistan Weather Portal 