Pakistan Weather Update & Monsoon alert (May 6 – May 13)

• Dadu sizzled at 48°C on May 4

• Western disturbance hampering Monsoon

• Fresh WD rains from May 11

• Monsoon of 2008 for Karachi likely

Background

A weak western disturbance is over Northern Pakistan as of May 6 that is causing light to moderate rainfall with strong winds. It is likely to stay there for 48 hours and then it will  move to India. Extreme heat wave also gripped some parts of the country since the last few day. Fresh western disturbance will affect the upper parts of the country from May 11.

Forecast till May 13

Northern Punjab, Khyber, Gilgit, FATA and Kashmir are under the grip of western disturbance, so more rainfall with fast winds likely till May 8. Fresh rainfall with strong winds likely from May 11 in these areas. Temperatures will remain below than May’s temperature.

Much of Balochistan and Sindh will remain dry with seasonal heat. Karachi will remain cool and windy due to strong sea breeze. The temperatures will hover around 34°C to 36°C during the next few days. No chance likely in Sindh till May 13.

Monsoon update 2011

Monsoon developement is still being hampered by unusual frequent western disturbance and lack of heat waves in the North western sub-continent. But even with the western disturbance Dadu, Sindh managed to get 48°C on May 4. Now a fresh western disturbance from May 11 is going to damage the monsoon build-up. Though the strengthening of a weak low pressure area is creating strong south-west winds in Bay of Bengal and Andaman sea.

Last years which had an increased number of western disturbance were 1981, 1985, 1986, 1991, 1997 and 2008. It is worth mentioning that Karachi and coastal Sindh had below-normal monsoon rainfalls during that year. Karachi had 91.5 mm rainfall that year much low than its normal monsoon rainfall of 147.5 mm.

But this year we also have see at weak La-Nina and weak negative Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), which has a major impact on monsoon season.