The Keila hype – It is not even a low pressure yet!

This is a “live cyclone coverage” that started from May 24 and will end on June 13. From June 13, normal articles of Pakistan Weather Portal (PWP) will resume.

McDonalds submerged in Oman due to Gonu - I'm lovin it !

Since the forecast of a possible cyclone in the Arabian sea emerged on May 23, there had been much talk about its possible track and intensity. Cyclones in the Arabian sea are rare and stronger ones are extremely rare but not unheard. A little disturbance in the Arabian sea sends chills to the coastal localities of Pakistan, Western Indian and Oman.

Pakistan is a country which rarely gets to see cyclones before and after the monsoon season, while the eastern India gets the highest number of cyclone than any part of the North Indian Ocean. Oman on the other hand, well, cyclones are rare guest in this small Arabic state but since past few years there had been greater than usual tropical disturbances in Oman. The reason? global warming and high sea temperatures than usual, and the frequent number of extra-tropical waves (western disturbance) over Northern Sub-continent that blocks the cyclones from moving in a Northern direction.

Expected track of ARB 01 or Keila

The expected track of ARB 01 or Keila

It is still unknown whether this storm will become a cyclonic storm or just intensify into a depression/deep depression. Since the past few days, the GFS model has been predicting a Pakistani landfall but during the last few days its showing a landfall in Oman. Some models also show that Gujarat or Gujarat-Maharashtra coast is the target. It is worth mentioning that one of these tracks will definitely come true in the days ahead as this area of thunder showers is expected to become a depression on June 1 or June 2. Following are some of the expected land threatened by Keila or ARB 01;

  1.  Oman.
  2.  Pak-Indo coastal border.
  3.  Sindh in Pakistan.
  4.  Sindh-Balochistan in Pakistan.
  5.  Gujarat- Maharashtra coast in India.

The most likely landfall of ARB 01 is Oman as the western disturbance is expected to approach the Sub-continent on June 1. Conditions near the road to Oman will also be favourable that is low wind shear. There is already a lot of moisture over Arabian sea that will keep fueling the system. Therefore Oman is likely to be the final resting places of ARB 01.

Has Oman seen cyclones or depression in this time of the year? In short, Yes. But there had been also some errors in prediction of these storms. lets take a look;

Past first week tropical depressions of Arabian sea

Cyclone Gonu 2007

 Gonu formed on June 1 and dissipated on June 7.
  • First and final prediction – It was always forecasted to make landfall in Oman. But Gonu was not expected to become a category-5 Super cyclone, thus breaking all past records.

Cyclone Phet 2010

Phet formed on May 30 and dissipated on June 7.

  • First prediction – Phet was expected to hit Gujarat and adjoining Sindh as a category-2 hurricane.
  • Second prediction – In second warning, Phet was expected to hit Sindh and adjoining Gujarat as category-3 hurricane.
  • Third prediction – In the third warning it was expected to hit Karachi and Sindh as a low-end category-3 hurricane.
  • Fifth and final prediction – In final warning, Phet was expected to hit Oman as category-5 hurricane but in fact the storm hit Oman as category-4 and then re-curved back to Pakistan and India as a weak depression.

ARB 01 and 02 2009

Though these two storm did not form during the first week of June but they were the first Arabian sea depressions of 2009.

ARB 01 formed on June 23 and dissipated on June 25, it formed near Mumbai and moved from Gujarat to Sindh, it caused rainfall in Karachi and Gujarat, while its remnants helped give life to another depression called ARB 02 that kept moving on open sea waters till it also dissipated on June 26. ARB 01 had winds upto 30 mph and it dropped 100 mm rainfall in Jamnagar, Gujarat.

ARB 01 2008

It formed on June 5 and dissipated on June 7. It was a depression with winds upto 30 mph. It was also forecasted to intensify into a deep depression then into a cyclonic storm . It was also first forecasted to hit Sindh-Gujarat border but it went to Oman as a well-marked low pressure area.

So is it 2008 OR 2009?

The area where Cyclone Keila/ depression will form

Will ARB 01 2011 follow 2008 path and bring rainfall to Oman? or Will it follow 2009 path and bring showers to a city that received last proper rainfall on September 13? This question will be answered on June 1.

If ARB 01 2011 hits Oman then it will be the third year that a tropical depression formed in the Arabian sea during the first week of June and made landfall in Oman.

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84 thoughts on “The Keila hype – It is not even a low pressure yet!

  1. Very detailed post brother … very nicely done 😀 …. seeing the mcdonalds pic it seems it’s made right in centre of a flowinf river … very horrible .. but i’m lovin it 😛

    • @Ali
      GFS stands for Global Forecast System, Its used for long-range forecast..they are not always accurate..
      @Demon
      Excluding ARB 01, No tropical activity in the North Indian Ocean expected till mid June…

  2. I think depression will not form in ARB sea. There are only normal seasonal clouds over the Arabian Sea. Only chances of rain either in Oman or Karachi.

    • It will gain weak depression status…depression are common form of monsoon season.. Karachi gets 98% monsoon rainfall from Bay of Bengal’s depressions that travel all the way from India to reach Sindh..they are low pressure or well marked low by the time they reach Karachi, that is their final approach…

  3. @AQIB and Yousuf
    Both of you have same questions…there are chances of cyclones to form in Bay of Bengal and Arabian sea before or after monsoon season…but that does not happen every year especially to Arabian sea which is calm tropical basin..in next few days I see no tropical activty in both of these seas..

  4. Latest sat pic shows some conviction in the clouds. Hope their will be some deep depression.

    If you need Gounu cyclone pic I have lot because I was present their.

    Pray for rain with blessing.

    • As expected an upper air circulation has formed in south east arabian sea which is expected to become a low pressure area and with favourable conditions it can also become a cyclone

    • well dear pakmet is really weird the still dont even know that there is something going on in the arabian sea you better go to msn weather because they show somewhat accurate predictions or this current website pakistan weather portal is also hve some accurate and good weather realte news

    • pakmet has said nothing about rains in karachi uptill now as it will be premature to say anything … it all depends upon the path of projected low pressure if it comes to wards karachi or close to karachi there will be widespread rains … pray that it makes it way to karachi and we have much needed rains

  5. Well as expected an upper air circulation has form in south east arabian sea close to kerala coast and will develope into a low pressure system here is an excerpt from the article

    “As expected, southeast Arabian Sea has tossed up an upper air cyclonic circulation off Kerala coast, the IMD said. The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasting sees the system anchoring the monsoon flows and helping the cause of the progress of rains along the coast to the north.

    The system could descend into lower heights and set up a low-pressure area off coastal Karnataka where the ocean water temperatures are well above 30 degree Celsius. In comparison, the seas off Kerala to just south are cooler.

    But an anti-cyclone let loose by the intervening westerly system could scare away the ‘low’ from approaching India coast, and the southeasterlies associated with the anti-cyclone could drive the sameout into central Arabian Sea.

    Still international models indicate the monsoon system conducting itself well during the onset phase. The International Research Institute for Climate and Society at Columbia University is vouching for a sustained strong band of convection holding itself up across southeast Arabian Sea and into Bay of Bengal from southwest to northeast.”

    Well , the western disturbance entering soon will make the cyclone to skirt towards central arabian sea and when WD has passed in 2-3 days it will again continue its path along north-north east towards sindh or gujarat coast .. hopefully

    • BBC and GFS models are predicting the same thing that the system will move towards south gujarat – mumbai coast and will makes it way farther in towards rajasthan in that case karachi will not get any good rains as the distance of low pressure will be far more from karachi ….

  6. What about long range forecast? Looks we receive some good rain if Western disturbance system moves to central India by 1st June.

    Did anyone have any idea why Karachi weather radar is not in operation since last year?

  7. @ shahab

    Long range forecast changing regularly and difficult to say right it.

    Radars are working fine but not regularly updated by pakmet they update only in monsoon or in cyclone

  8. And all those expecting rainfall in Karachi this week, should not have high hopes on this system..With each passing day the GFS is showing a weaker storm than the last day.. Pakistan Weather Portal will issue “Pakistan Weather Update & Monsoon alert (May 31 – June 4)” tomorrow…Good news for Karachiites expected…

    • hopefully there would be some great news regarding the deep depression hopefully it will come to karachi to give rains…….

  9. according to bbc there is less chances for keila to head towards oman , the storm is getting stronger and stronger , it might hit the coast of gujarat or karachi , but anything is possible , during the recent years most of the cyclones has threatened karachi from 4 – 6th june , i hope this time its lashes and give a good amount of rain , karachi needs rain

  10. A low pressure will form on friday or saturday , chances from cyclone to hit karachi due to which heavy to very heavy rainfall predicted

    • on the basis of which data you are about to say that dear??? kindly tell me secondly every one approx is a rain lover in karachi bcoz it brings joy to the people of karachi 🙂

  11. hi i am faisal.i think i am the biggest rainlover in world. i watch and check every website of weather daily.

  12. All forecasters of this world are not ready to show one single rainy day forecast for karachi because lowest pressures is not running upper side where is karachi. It always stay and runs over Trivandrum to Mumbai and then Jamnagar and Muscat to coastal balochistan. Under any circumstances it is not ready to come and stay over karachi

    • Please will you show me some website that is showing “Daily” rains in Balochistan and other cities you mentioned, give link…Climate is some thing that can be changed, this is some thing that I have told you every time and will keep telling you….This was the same thing that Accuweather blog was telling you since 2009..There is no curse in Karachi..and there are no daily rains in Northern Pakistan otherwise they would have been under rain water..

  13. bbc is shit when it comes to cyclone , remember cyclone phet , it showed that karachi would be sunny and there was no rain chances in their chart also , but still it rained and it rained hard we got more than 150 mm of rainfall , cyclone cant be predicted , who knew that it would go to muscat ( cyclone PHET )

    • First of all, BBC forecast change within a day. Secondly, Karachi only got 95mm rainfall from phet on the time was sunday overnight and before one day of sunday it means from saturday BBC was showing heavy rains for saturday night.

  14. when will you be posting the new article regarding monsoon in pakistan this year as well as the updates regarding the depression in arabian sea??

    • dude in my opinion MSN prediction is accurate, approximately their predictions are 95% right secondly yahoo has some fair bit of predictions too 🙂

    • I know its exciting news…but remember that this news is still a “COULD” thing..not “WILL”…A low pressure should have formed in the Arabian sea uptill now but we still see a upper air circulations…

  15. i dont see it coming towards us … the winds flags aren’t disturbed that much … lets c wat happens … it’ll be clear in coming 48hours … as for arabian sea it is much hotter this summer then last season so chances of another cyclone taking birth by the end of monsoon season cant be ruled out totally! =p … been tracking this since 22nd may , found this portal today good to see interested ppl here , @ admin keep the intel flowing and good job

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