Pakistan Weather Update & Monsoon and cyclone alert (May 24 – May 31)

This is a “live cyclone coverage” that started from May 24 and will end on June 13. From June 13, normal articles of Pakistan Weather Portal (PWP) will resume.

  • Harsh dust storms back in Punjab!

  • Western winds hampering monsoon

  • Pre-monsoon winds in Karachi

  • Cyclone Keila to hit Oman or India or Pakistan?

Pakistan weather Background

Temperatures till first week of June

*A western disturbance is likely to affect Pakistan that is likely to bring more severe dust storms and moderate to heavy rainfall in that part of the country.

*Moisture from Arabian sea affecting Karachi and coastal Sindh, cloudy/windy conditions to prevail in the region, a part of pre-monsoon conditions.

The target of western disturbance this time!

A western system is likely to grip many parts of the country from May 24 till May 28. The weather system will cause high destructive winds with heavy rainfall. This wave will intensify over Pakistan due to the high temperatures over land. People of Punjab, Khyber, Upper Sindh, Upper Balochistan, Gilgit, FATA and Kashmir should avoid standing outside at the time of the dust storms as the previous storm caused 17 people to die in Punjab while 41 in India, mainly due to severe winds, as many houses collapsed. Temperatures all over the country will decrease due to this weather system.

The weather system will not cause any activity in Karachi or coastal areas of Pakistan.

Weather Warning for Punjab!

Strong thunderstorms over Pakistan on May 24

As I said earlier, this western disturbance has the potential to cause some deaths in these areas especially in Punjab. Precautions should be taken to avoid any uncertain incident. The main threat is from dust storms, locally called Kali Andhi (Black storm).

Monsoon Update 2011

Karachi to remain cloudy

The moisture from the Arabian sea is continuously penetrating into the parts of the coastal areas. These are some of the pre-monsoon characteristics which Karachi is experiencing, but this year they have been some what early. Drizzle could occur during this week. Evenings and early mornings will be partly to mostly cloudy in Karachi.

Possible Cyclone in the Arabian sea??

Would-be-cyclone Keila's distance from Karachi

There is an area of thunder showers in the Arabian sea that is expected to intensify into a cyclonic storm (tropical storm) during the first week of June. No major details are available yet. But the storm could threaten two areas, either India or Oman.

If the storm heads to India, then Gujarat-Maharashtra border is the target. Otherwise its Oman. It not confirmed that the cyclone will form or not. There are some good chances for formation of tropical storm as of May 25. But these chances could vanish during the coming days.

Karachi and other coastal areas are expected to witness the cyclone’s fiery because as of May 25. Cyclone Keila is expected to move from Gujarat coast to Sindh coast where it will make landfall and stay stationary for some time and will dissipate over coastal Sindh then will moved back east wards. Heavy rainfall with strong windstorms expected over coastal to south eastern Sindh. This forecast could change in coming days – Stay tune!

Name of the possible cyclone?

The next name on the list for North Indian Ocean cyclone is Keila, pronounced as Kei-la. A name given by Maldives.

Pakistan Weather Portal (PWP) will give regular updates, news alert and breaking news regarding this cyclone, if it forms and threatens the Pakistani coastlines.

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102 thoughts on “Pakistan Weather Update & Monsoon and cyclone alert (May 24 – May 31)

  1. If it forms then 70% Chances it will hit oman to and 30% Gujrat to Mumbai. Under any circumstances it even cannot creates meaningful rains over karachi According to GFS.

    • your comments show your’e desperate for a heavy shower just like me 😛 … i usually behave like you when there’s rain all over country except karachi it makes me angry not to have even a single drop of rain and even during the cyclone PHET scene i was angry why it didn’t hit karachi directly 😛 but we should accept the reality that karachi is an arid area however you should be more than happy because for some years karachi is having hundred times more of its normal rainfall otherwise you would only see 5-6 days of rain in the whole year … you should thank ALLAH for that and pray that we get plenty of rains every season i would say more than 1000mm

    • More clear picture about this storm on May 31…major things expected on that day…like, Will it turn into a cyclone or not..But its quite clear that there is some activity in the arabian sea as of May 25..stay tune

    • There’s some good news according to recent GFS models the would be cyclone/depression will come very close to karachi and the maps are showing heavy precipitation in and around karachi … but its just a prediction things will change with time we will have a more clearer picture in the first week of june

  2. As of latest forecast (May 25) the cyclone will move from Gujarat to Sindh and make landfall over Keti bandar (near Karachi)…Heavy rainfall with isolated very heavy rainfall expected in Karachi and coastal Sindh with wind storms from the first week of June…But this all could change too…Stay tune!!

    • I hope that the latest weather map proves true for karachi in this case we will have a good round of rainfall for the whole week … its interesting to note that the GFS maps are showing another system forming in arabian sea around 10th of june and other in Bay of bengal if this happens then predictions made by various international models that te indian western coast along with sindh coast will get very good and enhanced rainfall during the initial phase of monsoon in june … lets hope and pray for heavy rains this season

      • My friend, please don’t forget those poor people living near the coastal area. They are the worst victim of Cyclones as our authority hardly make any attempt for their rescue. I know, it thrills you when Karachi get rains but please pray that this rain may be a blessing for the poor as well.

        Thanks

        Adnan A Khan

    • There is a suspect area in south arabian sea with lots of intense to very intense convective clouds with embedded circulation but it will be premature to say anything about it as most international models are silent about it as yet but if it intensifies hopefully bulletins will be issued around 28 or 29 may as things will get clearer as we approach june

      • Like previous year Muscat,gawdar and jiwani will get downpour but there is no chance of Downpour in karachi. If like previous year Gwadar got 300 to 400mm rains in single day then karachi may get 50mm rains.From two days GFS is showing heavy rains forecast for coastal areas of balochistan and muscat

  3. It will not creates any rains over karachi. It will creates rains over Muscat to Jiwani,Gwadar and Pasni and very heavy rains over muscat to jiwani and gwadar. Also heavy rains over Trivandrum to Mumbai and Gujrat

    • Cyclone Keila is once again threatening Karachi, it will move vert close to Karachi and make landfall over Balochistan coastal areas. Very heavy rainfall with strong winds expected again in Karachi and coastal regions of Pakistan…This forecast will keep on changing..stay tune..

      • I am not saying anything but GFS maps are saying. It will make landfall b/w and over muscat to gwadar whether it remains depression or cyclone and balochistan coastal areas like Gwadar will have downpour again like previous year. According to GFS karachi will not get downpour and rains like gwadar and muscat.

      • cyclone may not hit karachi due to geographical limits.i think strom and heavy rain may occur in costal areas of sindh including karachi.

        shakeel ahmed gabol
        lemo goth karachi

  4. it comes from Gujrat to sindh eaither it comes from oman to balochistan but first let him into depression we shall wait more.. 4,5 days

  5. We cant say anything surely the picture is very blur right now GFS maps keep on changing 4-5 times in a day we should wait for the system to form at least in a well marked low pressure system another important factor should be watched western disturbance as the track of cyclone is hard to predict keeping in view the coinciding of western disturbance at the same time as it will steer the system in north eastern direction

    • The western system that is affecting Pakistan now is likely to stay for 2 days..no more WD expected during the tropical depression period…According the the latest GFS model..the sytem is now just a depression which will move from Gujarat to Sindh to Balochistan…Clear picture in 5 days…

  6. Before 1 or 2 days You had said that karachi will have cloudy then next week heavy rains but Still weather is sunny and hot over karachi.

    • I said partly cloudy to cloudy this week…Heavy rainfall could occur from June 4 till June 7…Its not sunny in Karachi..there are clouds over the sky..there is a lot of moisture coming from Arabian sea..I have always told you that climate can not be changed…Karachi has a semi arid climate…Climate is like a religion of a city…just like a person follows his religion, similarly a city follows its climate..there are many cities in the world that are extremely dry than Karachi…This is the most easiest way I could explain you “climate”..karachi has much better temperatures than other cities of Pakistan..

    • Yeah we all should pray …. badly in need of a heavy thunderous shower and it should be atleast… i think we havn’t seen any significant rain since sep 2010 when the last system of monsoon hit karachi … i would say the monsoon of 2010 was best so far and inshALLAH monsoon of 2011 will break all records 😛

  7. Global models are mantaining a watch for possible system in arabian sea because conditions are becoming favourable for such a system during first ten days of june here is an excerpt from what i have read on a website…

    “Meanwhile, global models continued to maintain a watch for the formation of a weather system in the southeast Arabian Sea close to the Kerala coast during the first 10 days of June.
    Some of these models also hinted the possibility of concurrent activity near the Oman coast during this period but without significant collateral damage to the monsoonal system.Global Forecasting System model of the CPC has hinted about the possibility of convective activity peaking to a high in south and southeast Arabian Sea during June 2 to 8”

    I think there are 80% chances of a system to form in arabian sea but nothing cant be said either it will attain a cyclone status or remain a depression and what track it will adopt … fingers crossed

  8. Are there still any chances that it will form into a Cyclone? OR it is sure that it will remain a depression??

    Please tell.

  9. @Yousuf and Haris
    Forecast are changing every day…one day its a cyclone the other day just a depression..one day its hitting sindh the other day its oman..Its not clear yet..As of now its a area of thunder showers..have to wait till 5 to 6 days or more..For clear picture..Because now the very latest forecast it that will hit Oman as deep depression…this morning the storm was forecasted to drop heavy rainfall in Karachi..So we do not need to monitor it yet..as forecasts will keep on changing and changing..till a well marked low pressure borns..

  10. Fresh western disturbance expected from June 2 to June 3 according to GFS, likely to cause depression/cyclone keila to move towards Oman.. 😦 I think this forecast will stay true as western system causes the cyclones/depressions to tear apart due to high wind shear and keeps them moving towards western direction..

    • Arrival of western disturbance at the same time is not a bad news its really a good news as the western disturbance will cause the system to steer in north eastern direction towards sindh/gujarat coast instead of keeping it on western track towards oman as the system is forecasted to remain a depression as of now … but still nothing cant be said surely as on vagaries the blogger said the system will start to organize on 31st of may

    • Nobody is showing rainy forecast for karachi including GFS so KESC should not need to be ready. GFS is showing rains over Trivandrum to Mumbai and muscat to gwadar. I do not know its reason but this is truth. Punjab,nwfp and kashmir also have precipitation but karachi does not.

  11. Global models including IMD are predicting two weather systems one after other in arabian sea the first one will be in west central arabian sea close to oman and it’s forecasted not to intensify more than a depression as of now but do you people remember same kind of advisory was issued for cyclone PHET a year ago that it’s not forecasted to gain strength and become a cyclone but PHET proved this wrong … this system is forecasted to steer west towards oman(i hope not this case) the another system will form right after the first one and this one will be in south east arabian sea close to kerala coast but nothing cant be said about its track right now .. the first system as a depression is forecasted to steer towards oman according to GFS but as metro said BBC is showing a different track more in north eastern direction towards gujarat coast of india but as i said earlier WD should be watched carefully this time

      • I think if the system moves towards gujarat coast then there’s a bright chance that the system may skirt along the gujarat sindh coast … in that case karachi may get good round of rainfall contrary to that if the system moves towards oman it’ll not be good for many reasons on first hand it will rob all the moisture from monsoon winds going towards india and monsoon will be delayed further 2-3 days over mainland india and on second hand it will make the weather here in karachi hot and dry thus karachi will not get that much rain may be light showers

  12. As of now the upper air circulation(UAC) present over arabian sea is predicted to become a depression in next 3-4 days and moves towards north-north east towards sindh gujarat coast … so there’s some good news lets hope that it will come towards karachi or atleast near to karachi so that we may get good rains inshALLAH 🙂

    • If its go to Oman then slight chances of light drizzle…If its goes to Gujarat then scattered moderate rainfall..It it goes to Sindh then widespread heavy rainfall with isolated extremely heavy rainfall..But high chances are that the cyclone/depression will go to Oman..

  13. Karachi and sindh is very unfortunate and it may be a result of someone bad curse. Western disturbance never creates rains over karachi and sindh. Arabian sea lowest pressures runs over trivandrum to mumabi and then Oman to gawdar. This is not just the case of karachi weather and this may be a result of someone bad curse to sindh and karachi

    • Karachi and sindh is not unfortunate its true that first and last decision is of ALLAH alone nobody can change that …. but keeping in view the geographical point of view karachi is in the north of arabian sea any system forming in arabian sea would either go to north east or north west pertaining to the rotation of earth and western winds affecting the area no system can go straight towards north as it will encounter the winds somewhere in its path and rotation of earth donot allow it to do so … we should pray that system come towards us and karachi gets that much needed rain

  14. depression will hit gujrat latest updates ………………:::::: 😀
    i think moderate to heavy rainfall can occur in karachi
    you must visit (hurricane and wether imagery)

  15. hi, so the debate is still going on whether the activity which occurred on may 23 will it be affecting Karachi or not???
    well lets hope for the best and lets hope for good rains as i am another crazy rain lover, well we all love rains in Karachi as each year we all awaits for this season
    waiting desperately for the final decision by the weather forecasters

    • Latest GFS models are predicting the depression to curve towards karachi mainly southern sindh before that GFS was predicting a landfall in oman… lets pray this system steer towards karachi … its showing good rainfall in and area around karachi …. hahah yeah your’e right most of the visitors here are crazy rain lover and this comes from the fact that karachi don’t get any significant rains throughout the year except these three months … lets pray for heavy rains 😀 … it seems most of the visitors here are the same i’ve seen on jim andrews blog 😛

  16. Has it reached Oman? If not, then when will it reach?

    Are there still some chances that the system will reach near karachi?

    • it has not formed yet … it’ll take shape around 31st may or 1st june and will take some time to gain strength maybe 2-3 days most models are hinting not going above a depression strength … latest GFS models are predicting a landfall near karachi instead of oman and that’s a good news …GFS models showing karachi will get meaningful rains from this system 😀 .. inshALLAH

      • Sub chotia bana rahey hain..koi tofaan nahi aaiga InshaAllah…abey barish ke diwano, toofan ka matwaloon, or andhion ke parwano. Koi or kaam kur lo blog k ilawa

    • BBC forecasts are not accurate … mostly their forecasts are based on a model error of ±70% and i came to know that during most of the time checking the weather through their website , on most of the occasions they forecasted heavy rain in karachi but instead of getting a shower sun shone very brightly that day … lets see if karachi gets light rain on friday according to BBC … i dont think so and if it happens either it will only be dark clouds which is a normal phenomenon in karachi during monsoon or some drizzle …

  17. give me a chance in your department i know all things about climate and wheather i have knowledge about clouds specially GOOBI clouds may b i become a another m.anif

    • I am not Pak met office…If you want to write an article on PWP…you can email me that article and I will put it on the blog with your name.. but it should not be too big..Other than that I really cant help you..

  18. always follow bbc map forcast not five day forcast of bbc.they are different from each other try it.

  19. There is no chance of rain till 15 of june in karachi…cyclone keila will directly hit to oman on 9th of june…

  20. according to bbc , the cyclone will make a curve from gujarat and then who knows that it will go towards pakistan or oman

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