Pakistan Weather Update & Monsoon alert (July 1 – July 8)

  • Heat wave is gone for now!

  • 21 people dead across Pakistan!

  • Monsoon eyes South Punjab now!

  • Prays for Rain in Sindh! 

Background

Monsoon season has begun in Pakistan with lots of rain, thunder and winds. The monsoon has brought relief to the Northern Pakistan while southern Pakistan is thirsty for some relief from scorching heat. Heat is till active in some parts of Balcohistan and Sindh, though monsoon rains will bring relief to Sindh but coastal Balochistan and adjoining areas near Iranian border should wait till November.

Heat wave – Is it gone?

Pakistan temperatures till July 8

The severe heat wave is gone, temperatures have relaxed down in especially the hot spots of Pakistan. Nawabshah is expected to get 41°C – 42°C, while it has seen 49°C  few weeks back. Sukkur will see temperatures around 43°C. In Hyderabad, temperatures are significantly low that will be around 37 °C compared to its summer temperature of 43°C. In Karachi, the temperatures will hover around 32 °C  to 33°C , the low temperatures in Karachi are due to cloud cover and overcast since mid-June. Temperatures in Karachi will stay around 33°C during the coming days.The people of Sindh could now relax for some time!

In other parts of Pakistan, due to heavy rainy activity the temperatures will remain 1°C to 3°C below in those areas. But still temperatures will reach around 42°C  in Multan, Lahore, Faisalabad and other cities of Punjab. In Islamabad, temperatures will hover around 38°C.

Weather-related incidents in Pakistan

Due to heavy monsoon rainfall in parts of Punjab, many houses have collapsed, mostly mud houses and many people have lost their lives. On June 29, some 12 people lost their lives in Punjab and many as 25 people were injured when monsoon lashed Punjab. On July 1, fresh showers have caused more houses to collapse in Punjab and 3 people have been reported dead.

In Sindh, at least 6 people have lost their lives as temperatures touched unexpectedly 51°C  in Dadu on June 28. Overall 21 people have lost their lives since June 28 in Pakistan’s weather related incidents. Pakistan Weather Portal (PWP) request the people to take precautions during the heat wave and during rainstorms.

Monsoon update 2011

  • Good monsoon from second week of July!

  • Monsoon in full swing in Punjab!

  • Karachi to see clouds only!

India

The map of monsoon 2011

The Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) had revised their monsoon forecast for 2011 and have now forecasted a below-normal monsoon all over the country. The IMD uses a new model to forecast the monsoon since 2007 and their forecasts have went as predicted, but in 2009 their forecasts went horribly wrong and 2009 proved to be the driest year in the history of India in the 21st century.

Monsoon has caused heavy rainfall across India but it is likely to reduce its intensity in Southern Peninsula. Monsoon will take 3 to 4 days to advance in some parts of Gujarat.

Pakistan

Monsoon season is causing light to moderate showers in parts of Punjab and will continue to do so with occasional gaps of sunny/partly cloudy conditions. Isolated heavy rainfall could occur in North-eastern Punjab during this week. Though as of now there are no chances of any severe event in any part of Pakistan from Monsoon. Monsoon is likely to be slightly above normal in Northern Pakistan due to the interaction between westerlies. Bay of Bengal may also get active during the second week of July. A Dry MJO phase has started weakening and conditions will be better over the Indian-subcontinent from second week of July.

In Karachi, people are waiting for the first drop of rain to fall but it seems as if the nature is listening only to other Karachiites who fear that rainfall will cause power outages and break down, flooding and cause hardship to the citizens and thus they do not want rain, Pakistan Weather Portal (PWP) had forecasted that monsoon will hit the thirsty province of Sindh including Karachi on July 15, a decrease or increase in days can not be ruled out.

What do you forecast?

Pakistan Weather Portal (PWP) needs to know your thoughts;

219 thoughts on “Pakistan Weather Update & Monsoon alert (July 1 – July 8)

    • Two forecast persists:
      1. Isolated thunder showers from July 8 night…
      2. Sunny/cloudy weather to continue till mid July…
      One of them will turn out to be true…this forecast is for karachi..

  1. yesterday, there was a little drizzle in Multan. I want to ask, Babar Bhai it was Monsoon rain or pre-monsoon rain ?

    • Monsoon hit Karachi on July 29, 2008…on that day 56 mm rainfall occurred with 40 mph winds…. after that all days were dry except for one day of first week of August… a total of 91.5 mm rainfall occurred during the monsoon of 2008…

    • Monsoon are massive weather phenomenas that can not be predicted or forecasted 100%….. Monsoon might be below normal in Karachi this year…atleast this what certains global conditions show and also the weather history of weather that is 2 years wet (2006, 2007) and 2 years dry (2004, 2005) or 1 year dry (2008) and the other wet (2009,2010).. like wise 1998-2001 dry and 2003 wet.. according to karachi’s weather history..2011 may be dry..if its goes wet then 2012 will surely be dry… though some isolated thunder showers expetced from July 8 night…

    • Monsoon moisture present over Northern Pakistan….so rains are likely….but its intensity will be weak as compared to the rains which islamabad saw few days back…

    • Not likely… as of now there are neutral ENSO conditions…We should wait for this year’s monsoon…ON July 18, 2009…monsoon hit the city…and from 9pm to 11:30 pm it was a saturday night storm.. 245 mm rainfall was recorded Landhi while 207 mm in Airport…. so dont lose hope for this year’s monsoon…On july 18, 2009 PMD had forecasted scattered showers on that day…and it turned out to be a massive rainfall….it all depends upon God…

  2. guys guys guys , dont loose hope as of now , monsoon shall start here from 15th july so u guys are jumping on conclusion waaaay too early just let the thing start 1st … if it came 4 days earlier in punjab doesn’t meant it shall came here before its actual time too , there are chances of t-storms from 2nd week of july so just wait … and dont jump to any assumptions we aren’t cheif experts here , the wind farms are still normal for karachi for upto 8th july so far so monsoon winds are still faaar away from us and might reach at their original time

    btw FAISAL , kiaaaaaaaaa heavy rainfall howa aaj bhaie karachi tu doob gaya , BBC ki kiaa predictions thi bhaie maza agaya 😀 😀 … sucker!!!

  3. May this come true. Because i am desperately waiting for clouds those come from EAST and give HEAVY RAINS… 🙂

  4. Allah Punjab,Nwfp,kashmir aur balochistan per hamesha say bohut ziada merherban hai. Punjab,nwfp and kashmir are very lucky.

  5. o bhai faisal achi achi baatain kar yaar q dil jalata hia or filhaal aisa koi chance nhe weak hone ka maire dost its intensifying………. bhai KM zara aap he kuch btado ……………..

  6. @EVERY BODY
    monsoon rains in Up pak likely to reduce from tonight… as for monsoon in karachi is concerned….there are chances of isolated to scattered rainfall from July 8 evening/night…due to a low forming in BOB, whose formation chances are slim at the moment, this scenario may change as day progresses…Monsoon activity in up Pak will resume after few days…

  7. y there is so much rain in northern pakistan?enso condition is affecting there or not?enso is affecting sindh and karachi only?

  8. inshallah rain is expected from coming friday this time most weather sites are predicting rains from friday …

  9. Faisal is a trouble maker when every one agreed on rain he says there will be no rain, when every one sure that there will be no rain, then he says downpour to come from east 🙂
    He always goes against the reality, I think he has the same parrot as one killed in india 🙂

  10. bhai MIRPURKHAS m bht dino se garmi hai mgr barish ka naam-o-nishan nahi.mirpurkhas m moonsoon ki 1st rain kb hogi????

    • Infact Mirpur khas will get rainfall first…..as compared to Karachi… chances of monsoon hitting Sindh on July 8 / 9 persist…. If there is a delay then monsoon will begin before July 15…

  11. every one should follow me.heavy rain in karachi tomorrow and i am not faisal ibrahim.yes Jackie aur tabish badil come from east aur tamiz say baat karo. follow my past comment and bbc map.i am very accurate

  12. we r waiting for rain from last year. But there is no significent chances as yet. Y Bay of bangal is so quite this year ?

  13. Sir Larkana Mei Garmi ka zor to kam hogaya hai 2 week pehly jo 48C 49C temp tha AB wo 41C 42C hogaya hah but yeh aisa huwa hai to yahan barish abhi tak kun nahi huwe hai and kiya LARKANA mei barish karachi se pehly hogi ? tell me details about larkana weather thanks 🙂

  14. Sir SINDH Mei Garmi ka zor to kam hogaya hai 2 week pehly jo 48C 49C temp tha AB wo 41C 42C hogaya hah but yeh aisa huwa hai to yahan barish abhi tak kun nahi huwe hai and kiya LARKANA mei barish karachi se pehly hogi ? tell me details about larkana weather thanks 🙂

    • Chances of Monsoon hitting Sindh on July 8 / 9 persist…as for who is going to get first rains whether larkana or karachi….that depends upon the direction of weather system…but mirpur khas will get rains first as it is more in India..than any part of Sindh…

  15. Larkana mei I think first tab hit karega agar Punjab se aaiga Weather system shift hokar sindh ! agar arabian sea se aaiga system to sure first karachi mei hoga hit ! AM I RITE SIR ?

    • The weather system will come from Gujarat or Rajasthan…IN monsoon season…low comes from Gujarat or Rajasthan then enter south-eastern Sindh (mirpu khas and badin) and then move to coastal Sindh (karachi and thatta)…if they touch the arabian sea.. and conditions are faourable..then they become depression or deep depression or even cyclone and head towards Makran coast….Weather systems over Punjab do not come to Sindh..There are many tracks of these low…but they never come from Punjab…Some of them move from Sindh to Punjab…Monsoon Low that enters Punjab usually move towards Khyber province…

    • If the low comes to Sindh…few thunderstorms will form over Larkana as well..so yes rain could occur this weekend…but these all are just “chances” as of now….

  16. cnn yahoo and acuweather showing rainy forecast strting from 8 till 12 july hope it turns out to be correct

  17. @Saeed
    Yes..most of them are..
    @Haris
    There are chances of low formation in BoB…but they are just “chances” as of yet..
    @Shabib Raza
    ENSO means neutral..in other words normal..
    @Danish Raza
    Isolated means one to two places of a certain city….

  18. SIR aap logo nei kaha tha ke LARKANA mei 8 July ke baad rain aaiga lekin sir aaj black heavy clouds aarahein hein NORTH Side se Abhi is waqt half sky larkana ka heavy clouds mei hogaya hai and buhat thandi taiz hawaa chal rai hai to kiya it is sign of MONSOON RAIN or Normal rain ? or thunderstorm

    • Karachi and coastal Sindh is witnessing that situation since mid June….these clouds are just passing by… may cause drizzle…but NO major outbreak likely…this activity is usually observed during the monsoon season… indicating that arabian moisture is present over..

    • I meant to say that coastal SIndh have also seen these types of clouds…but no rains occur as these clouds do not have much intesity except for drizzle….Upper Sindh will also see some conditions like this after all its the monsoon season!!

  19. like previous years where we faced some sudden rainfall from dark clouds coming from east and no one predict about those rains and those rains give massive amount of water…..Is there any possibility for these types of rain without any prediction or without any chance of rain in karachi? correct me if these rains occur because of some system bcz i never heard any prediction before these kinds of rain…
    and if these rains are unpredictable than how they occur?

  20. It drizzled in nazimabad No. 4 for about 10 minutes. I’s returning home after maghrib prayers. when I reached home my hairs were seriously wet.

  21. karachi metro plzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz tell us that wen monsoon rains will start in karachi ab reali aur bardasht nai hota yar 😦

  22. There are chances of rain in the first half decade of july, but its too early to say because no low at the moment over bay of bengal. Monsoon yet to advance in gujrat and rajhistan, may be we will see rains in the coming week till then enjoy ocassional drizzle. 🙂

  23. hello i just wanted to say that the forecast for rain on 8 july has changed n it says there will be no rain before 15 july. Bbc yahoo accuweather n weather.com r saying no rains on 8 july 😦 but r there still any chances???
    @KM
    S

  24. At km
    So even if this monsoon revives after 2 days will it hit khi as a thunderstorm or will khi only get some showers?

  25. At km
    So even if this monsoon revives after 2 days will it hit khi as a thunderstorm or will khi only get some showers? N it’s arabian sea moisture or a system from bay of bengal?

  26. @Saeed
    No chances of rainfall in Karachi during the next few days…partly/moslty cloudy
    @Sam
    monsoon will first hit Gujarat and Rajasthan before hitting karachi..system from bengal…

  27. Yeh yar kesi Prediction hah ? kal accuweather and other weather sites bata rahi thi ke 8 July pe rain hah LARKANA mei phr aaj dekha to prediction hee changed hah yeh bhoot jhooti predict kar rahein hein sachi in pe yakeen hee nai karna chaeyeh

    • In 2009… pak was going through El-NIno..which means dry monsoon for Indian subcontinent…all parts of pak had below normal rains…except karachi, hyderabad, Thatta and other cities joining them…due to isolated events of weather system gaining moisture…so “isolated” evets can never be ruled out as they are small to be observed on numerical forecast…In 2009 above normal monsoon rains were seen in Karachi…But the outlook for 2011 monsoon for karachi is below normal rains..

      • Unless a weather system forms that would affect karachi…its useless to go in depth about the “forecasted” rains…obviously we all have seen that these forecasts keep changing and changing…so lets wait till a system is actually moving towards Karachi…although I know that Karachiites including me want rains after seeing rains in Lahore and Islamabad…but we have to wait…thats the only thing we can do…Although July 8 rains are still present..

  28. 15 JULY SE ALL OVER SINDH MEI RAIN START HOJAI GA ! MEI NEI WEATHER EXPERTS U.S.A CALLIFORNIA CENTER SE SINDH PROVINCE KE MONSOONS SEASON KI INFORMATION LI HAH EMAIL SE ! SO WAIT TILL 15 !JULY FOR HEAVY RAINS

  29. hum sunday 10th july ko thatta,gharo our karachi ghoomny jaien ge plz btaein us din wahan weather kexa hoga agr dhoop hogi to hum programe change kar k aagy kar dein???

  30. n i just saw the map n atleast half of india is covered up with monsoon clouds can they come to khi or will they just disappear?

  31. Dear KM

    Why this year rain is very active in lahore, we have had lots of rains from April till now. some very heavy rains on almost every weekend

    • monsoon started a little eariler this year in Punjab…also the interaction between strong monsoon currents and western currents caused some heavy falls from mid June…while in April and May there were some strong western systems that caused unusal high rains…

  32. Rains forecast for upper parts of sindh(sukhar division) on saturday, karachi remain dry or catch spoty drizzle.

  33. yaar khi may itni buri garmi ho rahi hai! Kab ho gi barish im getting tired of this dry n hot weather. i want rain n dark clouds!! 😦

  34. yaar 8 ya 10 jUly se kuch na kuch to hogaa i hope ! 100 percent sure kunke har weather site mei 8 and 10 july pe rain and storm hah ! Kiya yeh HEAVY RAIN FALLS mei tabdeel hojaeingei us din ?

  35. @KM..
    Yes temperature is rising and wind speed is decreasing, Today sunshine in karachi with haze, as we have been experiencing for years that before rains in karachi there is sunny and hot weather with decrease in wind speed. Now all eyes on bay of bengal, when the system forms and where it moves.

  36. Tabish Sir mei kuch samjha nai aakhir SINDH mei RAIN BAY BENGAL pe kun depend kar raha hai jesy wahan system banta hai rain ka wesy arabian sea mei jo system banta hai wo pakistan ki taraf kun nai aata india mei kun enter hota hai ? and koi big break hah kiya LOW WINDS AND RISING TEMP IN karachi ?

  37. Dear All ,

    Weather Alert for Karachi . Monsoon Count Down for karachi starts now because the low pressure area formed in Bay Of Bengal and the Land Based monsoon Trough Passed Southward and a UAC also formed on Gujrat .All indications shows that the monsoon may hit Karachi in 2 to 3 days .

  38. He He he he he its hard to accept but this year 2008 will be reapted…………………….
    but….
    a very strong low pressure is in the BOB…….lets pray again…. 🙂

  39. @all
    2 nd spell of monsoon is predicted to hit pk on thurday evening/night
    first monsoon rainfall is also expected in lower sindh on thursday/friday

  40. @ Danish Raza..
    Most of the moisture of Arabian sea travels towards west(western costal line of india), a portion of moisture travels towords north(Sindh and balochistan), Hot and dry air comes from west decreases the moisture level in the air, however winds from west for upper parts of pakistan (Punjab, KPK) brings moisture from caspian sea and this air is relatively cool which helps in condensation, and if the moisture from either of arabian sea or bay of bengal over there, these western winds interact with it and cause rains. In sindh moisture of arabian sea interact with moisture comes from bay of bangel(the only source of moist air other than arabian sea) and cause rains.

  41. achaw sir but Arabian Sea RAIN SYSTEM hamesha INDIA lejata hah Mumbai mei WO Karachi mei Hona chayeh na kunke uska seedha raasta to KARACHI se lagta hah yeh to Turn khaa jaata hai mumbai ki taraf hamesha

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