La-Nina: I’ll be Back???

/ July 14, 2011

  • La-Nina to return, RIGC says

  • Flooding rainfall may occur!

  • Post-Monsoon to be very active!

  • La-Nina returning with a “+ phenomena”?

Will the Indian monsoon-friendly phenomena return back? Some experts at the Tokyo-based Regional Institute for Global Change (RIGC) have forecasted that La-Nina will return from August.These were the same experts who said that the La-Nina of 2010 would be completely over in June, which proved true. Last year, La-Nina brought above normal monsoon to many parts of Indian Sub continent with worst flooding in decades in Pakistan.

They have also said that flooding rainfall may occur in most parts of Indian-Sub continent from August till October due to the return of La-Nina and emergence of positive Indian Ocean Dipole along with it

Similar forecast was issued by U.S experts few days back. Already the La-Nina is being blamed for heat waves in United States and worst drought in Africa. US says La-Nina will return in later this year. Question is, Will it affect the South-West Monsoon? If La-Nina occurs in September or October than most of its effect will be on North-East monsoon, which does not occur in Pakistan. So La-Nina must start in August for it to increase the intensity of South-West monsoon. But it is also worth mentioning that most weather models does not forecast any La-Nina or +IOD, they say that conditions are likely to be neutral till 2012. So will the Japanese be proved right? 

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20 thoughts on “La-Nina: I’ll be Back???”

  2. what about post monsoon activities and its strength in khi? kab tak chalengin post monsoon rains? and what about cyclones?

    • first we must see the start of monsoon in Karachi… last year post monsoon continued till November in Karachi, though most people dont know it…we had remains of Cyclone Jal and a low pressure in ARB that gave drizzle….in 2009 it continued till August 31… this year..if La-Nina happens again..then condition will be changed…as for cyclones are concerned…they occur after monsoon is over..

  4. why la nina cant affect karachi monsoon ??? why cant we have rainfall like last year ??? could u explain

    • Well….Last year in Karachi….Pre-monsoon occurred in June…Last year uptill July 14..atleast 2 heavy monsoon spells occurred in July..with the 3 in late July and 2 more in August.. then 2 in sep……and then two drizzle post-monsoon spell in November…….I think that shows the difference with 2011… La-Nina has not occurred yet…if it does then conditions will be changed…La-Nina is being expected to form in August…while July is the main monsoon month for Karachi… But I must tell every one that most computers are showing neutral conditions till 2012….

  9. la nina creates abnormal weather thats why we got soo much rain , hope 2007,2009 and 2010 repeats

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