Pakistan Weather Update & Monsoon alert (July 28 – August 5)

/ July 28, 2011

  • No more heat waves!

  • Winds return back to Karachi!

  • Death toll rises to 63 after rain lashes Pakistan!

Background

Precipitation (left) - Temperature (right): till August 4

Rains have been reported from almost all over the country in Pakistan since last week, while rains continue to batter some upper parts of the country. Temperature remained normal in many parts of the country while slightly above in some southern parts of the country. Overall high humidity was observed in the monsoon regions of Pakistan. Whats next? 

Temperature – high or low?

Temperatures are likely to remain in comfort zone in almost all parts of Pakistan due to monsoonal winds and moisture incursion prevailing over the region. In Karachi and coastal Sindh, the fast winds will keep the weather pleasant and temperatures are not likely to cross 35°C. In few areas of upper Sindh the temperatures could reach 45°C but overall no major heat wave is expected. In Punjab due to continuous and frequent cool western trough, the temperatures have dropped and they will remain in that place till 3 to 4 days. In Khyber province too, the temperatures are likely to remain in a comfort level. The advance of monsoon has caused temperatures to drop in Sindh and South Punjab. Following is the expected temperature forecast;

  • 36 °C to 38 °C in Islamabad.
  • 31 °C to 35 °C in Karachi.
  • 38 °C to 40 °C in Peshawar.
  • 40 °C to 44°C in Multan.
  • 40 °C to 44°C in Faisalabad.
  • 36 °C to 38 °C in Hyderabad.
  • 42 °C to 45 °C in Sukkur.
  • 41 °C to 44 °C also in Larkana.
  • 39 °C to 43 °C in Nawabshah.

Death toll rises as rain lashes different parts of country

Due to monsoon rainfall, many people have lost their lives. Pakistan Weather Portal (PWP) had been observing the deaths in Pakistan that occur every monsoon season, since June 25 till July 27 a total of 61 people have died across the country the deaths have occurred due to heat waves, isolated flash flooding, windstorms and heavy rainfall. On July 28,  2 people have been reported to die in Faisalabad due to the collapse of houses that was caused by a local dust storm, thus the death toll has risen to 63 till July 28.

Monsoon 2011  update

  • 4th spell continues – break – 5th spell starts

  • 2011: Karachi fears 2005 and 2008!

  • Low forming in Bay?

India

Bay of Bengal has been more inactive since last year as no strong weather system is seen forming that would strengthen the monsoon. However as of July 28, an upper air cyclonic circulations have formed in the north-western Bay of Bengal that could deepen a bit and intensify into a low pressure area, however its track will be in focus after it transforms into a low pressure.

A tropical storm Nock-ten in the western Pacific ocean could also have an impact on the monsoon season as it continues to move westwards.

Pakistan

Satellite image of Pakistan in afternoon

All the monsoon regions of Pakistan have now received monsoon showers. Pakistan Weather Portal (PWP) had forecasted on July 15 that monsoon arrival is likely in south-eastern and coastal Sindh including Karachi during last week of July and PWP was on the spot!

Monsoon hit south-eastern Sindh including Hyderabad on July 25 while coastal Sindh including Karachi a day later that is July 26.

Fourth monsoon spell in Upper Pakistan continues

The 4th monsoon spell continues to lash different parts of Punjab with rains starting to spread to South Punjab. The fresh western trough has enhanced the monsoon activity in Upper parts of Pakistan while the previous western trough is still present over India’s Kashmir. The Upper air cyclonic circulations have started attracting moisture to itself thus local thunderstorms may develop over South Punjab.

This 4th spell of monsoon will continue  till the end of July in Upper Pakistan including Khyber province though its intensity will decrease day be day as western trough moves into India and monsoon moisture decrease. After the 4th spell a break is expected and eventually the 5th monsoon spell may start between the first and second week of August.

Fresh monsoon spell in South Pakistan?

After witnessing the first monsoon spell in coastal and South-eastern Sindh, while third in Upper Sindh, many people living in Sindh especially Karachiites ask,”When will the second spell start?” 

The answer is that till August 5, there are no chances of any weather system coming to Sindh beyond that the weather is unclear. As for now the upper air cyclonic circulation has entered the Sindh coast and under the influence of this UAC, light drizzle could occur till July 29. The upper air cyclonic circulations would also strengthen the off shore trough over western coast of India. These circulations would dissipate in next 48 hours but the level of moisture incursion will remain low to moderate for drizzle for next few days in Karachi.

Poll of the week

Last week’s poll showed that 95% percent people wanted rains in Karachi while the remaining did not like rain at all. What will be the situation this time? Vote now so Pakistan Weather Portal (PWP) could know your views;

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123 thoughts on “Pakistan Weather Update & Monsoon alert (July 28 – August 5)”

  2. The l0w forming in the BOB would either go to upper Pakistan or would dissipate bef0re reaching SIndh.

  4. Without La-Nina, forget rains in Karachi. This city needs a catalyst to boost up monsoon =D

  7. @Tarim and Sam
    In 2009 karachi got very wet monsoon despite drought was over much Pakistan and India..El-Nino
    @Zulfi
    La-nina is still an abnormal behavior…but it does boost the monsoon all over sub continent.. so yes..
    @Ahsan
    Yesterday PWP talked about a thunderstorm..it did form but did not enter Islamabad due to westerlies and UAC over South Punjab, it caused heavy rainfall in North Punjab…chances of heavy rainfall still persist till 24 hours..

    • Well, no one kn0ws it’s reason that why did Sindh recieved very ab0ve n0rmal rains in 2009 while El-Nino was present over the subcontinent and the rest of the subcontinent recieved very less precipitation. It’s extremely rare, can’t happen every year or two. This year, all c0nditions are in neutral state like 2008. So I can say that this year’s m0nsoon could be similar to 2008.

  8. Now, there is no advantage whether karachi gets rains or not. Karachi rains for this year will be under 50mm or max 150mm because there is no hope of meaningful rains in karachi this year.Punjab,Nwfp areas rains will be atleast 500mm to 800mm for this year like previous. which is Injustice with karachi. BBC has not any work except showing downpours over punjab and BBC forecast is always correct

  9. This is true that forecast is subject to change but BBC forecast is most correct and thats why karachi is not getting any good rains this year.

      • Karachi earnings, job or other matters mein acha hai magar yahan ka weather bohut dry and hot hai.People comes from khyber,punjab to karachi for earnings and jobs. People go to khyber,punjab & kashmir from karachi for enjoy good weather, greenery, and rains to snow. We can go to islamabad for rains and greenery

  12. There could be no ab0ve normal rains in KARACHi with0ut any catalyst (+IOD and La-nina). Remember it !

    • We Karachiites should remember that we had two wet monsoon like 2009 and 2010 so 2011 could be dry…like in 2006, 2007 (both wet) and then 2008 dry…. if august fails too then all eyes will shift to 2012…

      • We karachiites also remember that every year is wet for punjab,nwfp & kashmir with 6-7 months rains from western disturbance and atleast 5 months from monsoon. Dry and hot years are only for karachi and its nearer areas.

  14. 2011 and 2012 c0uld also be dry like 2004 and 2005 LoL. Then 2013 wet and again 2014 and 2015 dry like 2003 wet and 2004 and 2005 dry. :p

  15. You simply mean that n0w we have to wait till 2012’s m0nsoon seas0n bc0z I can’t see rains anywhere near till 10th of August 2011.

  20. I think the name of Bay of Bengal has to be changed and from now on we call it BARREN BAY 🙂
    @km…
    because of frequent cyclonic activity in pacific we derprived of our share?

  21. karachi metro… latest pakmet update is that sukkur and mirpurkhas get t shower so larkana should be considerd in that case .. whats update of larkana.city u have

  25. when will second spell start…!!!!
    how much percent chances of rain in august…!!!!
    Karachi metro….
    any ideas being an a weather expert!!!!!

  28. Rain Showers expected in the Month of Ramzan 🙂
    All karachites this is just my prediction since 2nd june
    hope it comes true…
    Karachi is a city of crimes,Bloodshed in this city can’t get rains but what i feel it is indeed possible if not heavy or thundery showers then might be possible some moderate showers before/after 10th Ramzan…

  29. @KM
    Multan has not got any rains since 4th spell has started in Punjab. Multan is still thirsty. When will it rain ?

    • There had been good chances of rainfall in Multan due to good supplement of moisture and presence of UAC over South Punjab, but is weird that rain has not occurred in the city since July 16. Chances of rainfall persist till 48 hours.

  30. @km
    is there a low in bay of bengal and will it affect sindh in next few days ???????????????????

  31. en will second spell start…!!!!
    how much percent chances of rain in august…!!!!
    Karachi metro….
    any ideas being an a weather expert!!!!!

  32. Ramzan kay Barkat, Rahmat,Magfirat, aur Jahanum say Nijat panay walay month kay start honay say phelay hi karachi mein meaningful rain ki dua start kardayni chahiyay. Ramzan ki barkat say garmi ka zor khatam hojayega aur barish ek na ek bar to ho he jayegi. Aur yeh dua bhe karni chahiyay kay next year karachi mein good rains ho.

  33. @Km.
    where does this SW clouds come from… and why r they not shown in maps…!!! they gave rain in morning….a little bit fast rain but for few minutes….!!!! why are they not rain bearing clouds>>>!!
    when monsoon gonna start…According to past history,monsoon do occur in month of august…how much chances of rain…!!!
    KM>>>answer all the questions…PLZ…THNX

  35. @km
    u said that ther is no low pressure in bay of bengal but in monsoon update u said that a uac is over north west bengal and may intensify into a low

  36. @karachi metro…
    any sign of second spell in khi…. or rain in august…!!!
    is rain predicted or not….!!!!
    drizzles do come but 4rm SW clouds….

  38. @Karachiites
    Models is varying from one to other, but they all agree that some activity likely from either the mid or the end of 2nd week of August. Although its still to early.

  40. @km
    the low which is forming in bengal will it affect karachi or will it not

    and the models which are showing rainfall in karachi .. how many spells are they predicting and how much rainfall

  42. @ km
    how longer will you keep posting
    “WE TOLD YOU SO: Monsoon hit coastal Sindh and south-eastern Sindh during last week of July (July 26 and July 27) as forecasted by PWP on July 15”
    this is enough

    • As long the monsoon continues in Karachi, its a big news keeping in mind the criticisms from “many” people I faced while reporting the monsoon hitting Karachi…

      • those posts are gone , but i told u guys heavy rainfall shall occur in karachi on 26th , as per ur forecast lite rains , khair it didn’t rain much on 26th but point is it did rain …

        @ everyone :

        as per my windfarms reading experience there is high possibility on 2nd monsoon spell to on set over sindh by mid – 2nd week of august 😛

  46. Karachi Metro!!! Whats Update For Upper Sindh ( LARKANA DIVISION) ! Will Bay Bengal Strong System which forming in BOB it can effect here ? can you tell me in how many days will heavy rain occuring possibilty here ?

  48. @KM
    ramadan starting 4rm tommorow….. SW clouds is making all of us fools…whns monsoon gonna start…any predictions….WHT ABOUT LA LINA issue!!!

    • Sky will remain clear till the sighting of moon in Karachi so there is a good chance to observe the moon… There are some indications for rains in coming many days.. La-Nina is a distinct dream as of yet..1% believe it will return while 99% think opposite..

    • It must comes true as our city did not get any meaningful rains like lahore/RWL this year. By the way, 15 days forecast for Punjab,Nwfp,kahsmir is stormy/rainy like always.

  54. Severe storm here in lahore at sehri on first ramzan. I think we got atleast 25 to 30 mm rain.
    but that rain was no predicited, i dont know how they forecast. total wrong.

  56. SPECIALY KARACHI METRO SIR AND ALL OTHERS RAMZAN MUBARAK ! ! and KM sir i saw in ACCUWEATHER LARKANA FORECAST From 8 AUG TO 18 AUG THere is no sun ! only rain and thunderstorms ! heavy rain ! so will it become true ? there is any heavy chances of heavy rain from 8 AUG in Upper Sindh ?

  57. KM ji sub se pehly ap ko Ramazan Mubarak.
    KM kya August 9,ko sindh m Moonsoon ka 2nd speel start hoga?our Mirpurkhas City m 2nd speel m heavy rains hongi???

  61. KM SLAM HOWZZZZ U??? HOPE U LL BE FINE!! IAM NEW IN THIS FORM ! MY NAME IS ALI HAIDER LOT OF INTEREST IN RAIN! AND SCATTERED CLOUDS! BUT UNFORTUNATALY WE MISS ALL OF THEM!!! ANYWAY HOPEFUULY ALLAH LL DO GOOD FOR US! HE CANT UPSET US ! AS WELL! SO KM WHAT NEW NOW? IS THERE CHANCES NOW FOR HEAVY RAIN IN NEXT 3 OR 4 DAYS?

  63. thnx 4 all the quick updates karachi metro…!!! hope the monsoon activity in khi turn to “VERY HIGH”……whn will the rain begin…!!!level of moisture increasing rapidly and heat is gaining strength…. very favourable conditions 4 rain..

  64. km which was the best monsoon season(year) in the history of khi?or in which year maximum rainfall was recorded?

  65. KM sir how are you? ! and rite now i saw in PAK MET weather image that heavy clouds are near sindh ! so will it appears in SINDH ! UPPER SINDH BY TOMORROW Morning !! and yeh clouds rainfall kar sakhein gein sindh mei ?

  68. KM sir tell me about NEW SYSTEM which i think this will enter in SINDH BY 9th August is it rite ?and koi heavy rain ke ab Hope rakh sakhtein hein SINDH Province waley log? KARACHI METRO !

  69. KM ji tamam weather report ki sites pr Mirpurkhas m 9th August se 15th August tk rain hi rain ka likha hua hai kya yeh reports correct hein???

  70. Good chances of heavy rain in sindh included karachi on 9th ,10th n 11th August and on 15th and 16th august

  72. @Danish Raza
    I think you got your answer of clouds by now..
    @Shoiab
    some showers expected in coming week..
    @Wasi
    There is some activity…
    @EVERY BODY
    1. monsoon forecast for Sindh province has been upgraded.
    2. Moderate showers reported in Upper Pakistan.

    • Arabian sea always remain inactive…during monsoon season, it usually fuels systems coming from BOB…before and after monsoon…ARB may give cyclones..

  74. KM sir Today no one website shows cloudy weather in larkana but abhi is waqt buhat cloudy weather hah black clouds on the larkana sky ! i think agar WIND band hui to barish hogi lekin buaht hee thandi hawaa chal rai hai so kia kuch dino mei heavy barish hogi larkana mei ?im waiting f

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