From Orissa to Gujarat: A journey of UAC!
Bay of Bengal in dead faint!
No major weather system forming!
The monsoon is likely to remain active over parts of central India and the Gangetic plain during the weekend due to the expected upper air cyclonic circulations. Isolated heavy to very heavy rainfall would occur over Konkan, Goa, coastal Karnataka, Uttar Pradesh and Madhya Pradesh during next two days. Isolated heavy rainfall also likely over Vidarbha, Chhattisgarh, Bihar, Assam, Meghalaya, sub-Himalayan West Bengal and Sikkim on August 5.
The models used by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, the Tokyo Climate Centre and the International Research Institute (IRI) for Climate Society at Columbia University, all show that no major rainfall is likely to generate. However Pakistan Weather Portal (PWP) believes that monsoon should re-intensify from August 13.
5th – 4th – 2nd: Monsoon spells!!
Karachi: Stages set for another monsoon spell!!
Widespread monsoonal activity in Pakistan!
The 4th spell of monsoon in upper parts of Pakistan was extended due to two western trough that later moved to India few days back. The monsoon showers still continue to batter many parts of Northern Pakistan, even though the rains this year has been scanty. Pakistan is now entering that time of the year where monsoon is on its peak intensity, though this year the story has been different. Temperatures were mostly normal with slight increase as cloudy monsoonal weather prevailed much over the monsoon regions of the country as forecasted by Pakistan Weather Portal (PWP). Humidity was extremely high in some northern parts of the country due to lack of westerlies as moist winds dominated the upper half of the country.What lies ahead for Pakistan? Well its week-long monsoon rains for some parts.
Monsoon had covered Punjab, Khyber, Kashmir, North-eastern Balochistan and Sindh. Monsoon covered the whole country on July 26, PWP forecasted on July 15 that monsoon will hit south-eastern and coastal Sindh during last week of July that came fruitful.
Pakistan Weather Portal (PWP)’s forecast
“Notice: This is the forecast from Pakistan Weather Portal (PWP), we are 75% confident with this prediction. There will be slight variations in our forecast as certain meteorological factors develop and fade as time passes by and these factors are too isolated to be noticed on numerical charts or models, so if any change arises then PWP will update you.”
Pakistan Weather Portal (PWP) had forecasted on July 29 (Daily Update) that second monsoon spell may hit south-eastern and coastal Sindh in early August, earlier PWP forecasted and said;
“Moderate” chances of monsoon hitting Karachi during the end of second week of August.”
PWP upgraded that forecast to “high”, now PWP updates monsoon forecast to “extremely high” and we are confident that monsoon will cover the monsoon regions of Pakistan on August 11 mid-day or August 12 night. On August 5, PWP maintains it’s forecast to high at the moment.
Fresh monsoon rainfalls are likely in almost all parts of monsoon belt of Pakistan during the coming week. Fifth monsoon spell has started in Islamabad, Punjab, Khyber and Kashmir. While the fifth monsoon spell will start to lose its intensity from August 6 mid-day or August 7 early morning, it will however gain intensity from August 8 while rains will continue in Punjab, Khyber and Kashmir till a week.
As of 6:00 pm PST August 21, Various models, numerical charts and other meteorological parameters observed by PWP indicate that the upper air cyclonic circulations over Chhattisgarh will move to south-east Utter Pradesh (happened on August 5). It will move westwards and enter Madya Pradesh where there are slim chances of intensification of this UAC into a low pressure/well-marked low pressure from here it will start its journey to south-eastern Sindh, while moving it may maintain its intensity but it will send strong monsoon moisture to many parts of Pakistan (Punjab, Khyber and Sindh) while strong currents from Arabian sea while western trough will also enhance monsoonal activity over upper parts of Pakistan. The system will approach south-eastern Sindh by August 11 or August 12 morning, the system might maintain its intensity on its way to south Pakistan. Eventually it will start to dissipate after August 12 late .
The 5th spell of monsoon had started since August 3, it will continue till a week with occasional gaps. The monsoon showers will lose some of its intensity in next 2 to 3 days but will start to gain intensity as monsoon system will start heading towards Pakistan. Rain will be accompanied by fast winds and thunder, it will be heavy in intensity with few isolated above-heavy falls.
Mercury is expected to remain below normal in Islamabad;
- 32 °C to 35 °C in Islamabad.
In Northern Punjab: Lahore, Faisalabad, Murree, Rawalpindi, Sargodha, Sialkot and other adjoining cities. The 5th spell of monsoon had started since August 3, it will continue till a week with occasional gaps. The monsoon showers will lose some of its intensity in next 2 to 3 days but will start to gain intensity as monsoon system will start heading towards Pakistan. Rain will be accompanied by fast winds and thunder, it will be heavy in intensity with few isolated above-heavy falls.
In Northern Punjab, due to enhance monsoon activity, the temperatures found it difficult to rise and this condition is likely to continue. Following is the temperature forecast for Northern Punjab;
- 34 °C to 36 °C in Lahore.
- 37 °C to 39 °C in Faisalabad.
- 28°C to 32°C in Murree.
In Southern Punjab: Bahawalpur, Multan, Rahim Yar Khan, D. G. Khan and other adjoining cities. The 5th spell of monsoon had started since August 4, it will continue till a week with occasional gaps. The monsoon showers will be weak in South Punjab till August 7, after that they will gain intensity as monsoon system will start heading towards Pakistan. Rain will be accompanied by fast winds and thunder, it will be mostly moderate in intensity with scattered heavy falls.
In Southern Punjab, temperatures will be higher than Northern Punjab;
- 38 °C to 40 °C in Multan.
- 39 °C to 41 °C in Bahawalpur.
In Upper Sindh: Sukkur, Larkana, Jacobabad, Kashmore, Nawabshah and other adjoining cities. The 4th spell will begin from August 10 night and continue till next 3 to 4 days with occasional gaps. Rain will be accompanied by fast winds and thunder, it will be heavy in intensity with few isolated very heavy falls.
Temperatures did slightly rise in some southern parts of the country while mercury found it difficult to rise in northern parts as cloudy cover and westerlies kept approaching the country.
- 39 °C to 42 °C in Sukkur.
- 40 °C to 41 °C also in Larkana.
- 40 °C to 42 °C in Nawabshah.
In South-eastern Sindh: Mirpur khas, Umerkot, Tharparkar, Badin and Hyderabad. The 2nd monsoon spell will begin from August 10 night and continue till next 3 days, and decrease thereafter. Rain will be accompanied by gusty winds and thunder, it will be heavy in intensity with isolated very heavy falls as a strong thunderstorm will be at the border of Gujarat-Sindh.
In Sindh, temperatures were in comfort zone with no high temperature though increase in humidity might have made it feel as if temperatures are rising;
- 36 °C to 38 °C in Hyderabad.
In coastal Sindh: Karachi, Thatta, Keti, Shah Bandar and other coastal localities. The 2nd monsoon spell will begin from August 10 night and continue till 3 days, and decrease thereafter. Rain will be accompanied by fast winds and thunder, it will be heavy in intensity with isolated very heavy falls.
Due to frequent cloud over and fast winds the mercury in Karachi and other coastal cities has remained unchanged since July 1;
- 31 °C to 35 °C in Karachi.
What lies ahead?-A long-range forecast from Pakistan Weather Portal (PWP)
- Two monsoon spells in August??
- 3rd monsoon rainfall for Karachi???
“Notice: This is a long-range forecast of PWP, it will definitely change in coming days. But PWP wants to share this long-range forecast with its readers.”
The third week (starting from August 14) is a little tricky as forecast and predictions are varying, some models including the famous GFS is showing a strong weather system over the state of Madya Pradesh to head towards Sindh-Gujarat while other show that due to moisture laden winds and enhanced monsoon activity the rains will continue in the monsoon belt of Pakistan even after the passing 4 days since Independence day. Although long-range forecast do change but it is something to watch as monsoon will be on its peak intensity from the second week of August.
Pakistan Weather Portal (PWP) upgrades this forecast to “high”. This will be the third spell of monsoon in Sindh.
Death toll on hold as rains loses strength !
- Death toll remains at 63 since July 28
Pakistan Weather Portal (PWP) had been observing the deaths in Pakistan that occur every monsoon season, since June 25 till July 28 a total of 63 people have died across the country the deaths have occurred due to heat waves, isolated flash flooding, windstorms and heavy rainfall. The death toll has not risen as the intensity and coverage of rain as reduced in the country while PWP do except that the death toll may rise as fresh monsoon activity likely from August 8, PWP Media will keep you update on every developing weather story in Pakistan.
Poll of the week
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