Pakistan Weather Update & Monsoon alert (August 5 – August 12)

India

  • From Orissa to Gujarat: A journey of UAC!

  • Bay of Bengal in dead faint!

  • No major weather system forming!

All India rainfall issued by the IMD

The monsoon is likely to remain active over parts of central India and the Gangetic plain during the weekend due to the expected upper air cyclonic circulations. Isolated heavy to very heavy rainfall would occur over Konkan, Goa, coastal Karnataka, Uttar Pradesh and Madhya Pradesh during next two days. Isolated heavy rainfall also likely over Vidarbha, Chhattisgarh, Bihar, Assam, Meghalaya, sub-Himalayan West Bengal and Sikkim on August 5.

The models used by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, the Tokyo Climate Centre and the International Research Institute (IRI) for Climate Society at Columbia University, all show that no major rainfall is likely to generate. However Pakistan Weather Portal (PWP) believes that monsoon should re-intensify from August 13.

Pakistan

  • 5th – 4th – 2nd: Monsoon spells!!

  • Karachi: Stages set for another monsoon spell!!

  • Widespread monsoonal activity in Pakistan!

The 4th spell of monsoon in upper parts of Pakistan was extended due to two western trough that later moved to India few days back. The monsoon showers still continue to batter many parts of Northern Pakistan, even though the rains this year has been scanty. Pakistan is now entering that time of the year where monsoon is on its peak intensity, though this year the story has been different. Temperatures were mostly normal with slight increase as cloudy monsoonal weather prevailed much over the monsoon regions of the country as forecasted by Pakistan Weather Portal (PWP). Humidity was extremely high in some northern parts of the country due to lack of westerlies as moist winds dominated the upper half of the country.What lies ahead for Pakistan? Well its week-long monsoon rains for some parts.

Monsoon had covered Punjab, Khyber, Kashmir, North-eastern Balochistan and Sindh. Monsoon covered the whole country on July 26, PWP forecasted on July 15 that monsoon will hit south-eastern and coastal Sindh during last week of July that came fruitful.

Pakistan Weather Portal (PWP)’s forecast

Notice: This is the forecast from Pakistan Weather Portal (PWP), we are 75% confident with this prediction. There will be slight variations in our forecast as certain meteorological factors develop and fade as time passes by and these factors are too isolated to be noticed on numerical charts or models, so if any change arises then PWP will update you.”

PWP forecast: Valid from August 11 till August 12

Pakistan Weather Portal (PWP) had forecasted on July 29 (Daily Update) that second monsoon spell may hit south-eastern and coastal Sindh in early August, earlier PWP forecasted and said;

“Moderate” chances of monsoon hitting Karachi during the end of second week of August.”

PWP upgraded that forecast to “high”, now PWP updates monsoon forecast to “extremely high” and we are confident that monsoon will cover the monsoon regions of Pakistan on August 11 mid-day or August 12 night. On August 5, PWP maintains it’s forecast to high at the moment.

Fresh monsoon rainfalls are likely in almost all parts of monsoon belt of Pakistan during the coming week. Fifth monsoon spell has started in Islamabad, Punjab, Khyber and Kashmir. While the fifth monsoon spell will start to lose its intensity from August 6 mid-day or August 7 early morning, it will however gain intensity from August 8 while rains will continue in Punjab, Khyber and Kashmir till a week.

As of 6:00 pm PST August 21, Various models, numerical charts and other meteorological parameters observed by PWP indicate that the upper air cyclonic circulations over Chhattisgarh will move to south-east Utter Pradesh (happened on August 5). It will move westwards and enter Madya Pradesh where there are slim chances of intensification of this UAC into a low pressure/well-marked low pressure from here it will start its journey to south-eastern Sindh, while moving it may maintain its intensity but it will send strong monsoon moisture to many parts of Pakistan (Punjab, Khyber and Sindh) while strong currents from Arabian sea while western trough will also enhance monsoonal activity over upper parts of Pakistan. The system will approach south-eastern Sindh by August 11 or August 12 morning, the system might maintain its intensity on its way to south Pakistan. Eventually it will start to dissipate after August 12 late .

Islamabad

The 5th spell of monsoon had started since August 3, it will continue till a week with occasional gaps. The monsoon showers will lose some of its intensity in next 2 to 3 days but will start to gain intensity as monsoon system will start heading towards Pakistan. Rain will be accompanied by fast winds and thunder, it will be heavy in intensity with few isolated above-heavy falls.

Mercury is expected to remain below normal in Islamabad;

  • 32 °C to 35 °C in Islamabad.

Punjab

Temperature from August 5 till August 12

In Northern Punjab: Lahore, Faisalabad, Murree, Rawalpindi, Sargodha, Sialkot and other adjoining cities. The 5th spell of monsoon had started since August 3, it will continue till a week with occasional gaps. The monsoon showers will lose some of its intensity in next 2 to 3 days but will start to gain intensity as monsoon system will start heading towards Pakistan. Rain will be accompanied by fast winds and thunder, it will be heavy in intensity with few isolated above-heavy falls.

In Northern Punjab, due to enhance monsoon activity, the temperatures found it difficult to rise and this condition is likely to continue. Following is the temperature forecast for Northern Punjab;

  • 34 °C to 36 °C in Lahore.
  • 37 °C to 39 °C in Faisalabad.
  • 28°C to 32°C in Murree.

In Southern Punjab: Bahawalpur, Multan, Rahim Yar Khan, D. G. Khan and other adjoining cities. The 5th spell of monsoon had started since August 4, it will continue till a week with occasional gaps. The monsoon showers will be weak in South Punjab till August 7, after that they will gain intensity as monsoon system will start heading towards Pakistan. Rain will be accompanied by fast winds and thunder, it will be mostly moderate in intensity with scattered heavy falls.

In Southern Punjab, temperatures will be higher than Northern Punjab;

  • 38 °C to 40 °C in Multan.
  • 39 °C to 41 °C in  Bahawalpur.

Sindh

In Upper Sindh: Sukkur, Larkana, Jacobabad, Kashmore, Nawabshah and other adjoining  cities. The 4th spell will begin from August 10 night and continue till next 3 to 4 days with occasional gaps. Rain will be accompanied by fast winds and thunder, it will be heavy in intensity with few isolated very heavy falls.

Temperatures did slightly rise in some southern parts of the country while mercury found it difficult to rise in northern parts as cloudy cover and westerlies kept approaching the country.

  • 39 °C to 42 °C in Sukkur.
  • 40 °C to 41 °C also in Larkana.
  • 40 °C to 42 °C in Nawabshah.

Precipitation from August 5 till August 12

In South-eastern Sindh: Mirpur khas, Umerkot, Tharparkar, Badin and Hyderabad. The 2nd monsoon spell will begin from August 10 night and continue till next 3 days, and decrease thereafter. Rain will be accompanied by gusty winds and thunder, it will be heavy in intensity with isolated very heavy falls as a strong thunderstorm will be at the border of Gujarat-Sindh.

In Sindh, temperatures were in comfort zone with no high temperature though increase in humidity might have made it feel as if temperatures are rising;

  • 36 °C to 38 °C in Hyderabad.

In coastal Sindh: Karachi, Thatta, Keti, Shah Bandar and other coastal localities. The 2nd monsoon spell will begin from August 10 night and continue till 3 days, and decrease thereafter. Rain will be accompanied by fast winds and thunder, it will be heavy in intensity with isolated very heavy falls.

Due to frequent cloud over and fast winds the mercury in Karachi and other coastal cities has remained unchanged since July 1;

  • 31 °C to 35 °C in Karachi.
Overall the temperatures are slightly below normal by the average of 2°C to 3°C, the 5th monsoon spell in Punjab, Khyber and Kashmir that has started after the 4th spell which ended 4 days ago, has caused temperatures to relax down while monsoon winds continue to penetrate the country

What lies ahead?-A long-range forecast from Pakistan Weather Portal (PWP)

  • Two monsoon spells in August??
  • 3rd monsoon rainfall for Karachi???

Notice: This is a long-range forecast of PWP, it will definitely change in coming days. But PWP wants to share this long-range forecast with its readers.”

The third week (starting from August 14) is a little tricky as forecast and predictions are varying, some models including the famous GFS is showing a strong weather system over the state of Madya Pradesh to head towards Sindh-Gujarat while other show that due to moisture laden winds and enhanced monsoon activity the rains will continue in the monsoon belt of Pakistan even after the passing 4 days since Independence day. Although long-range forecast do change but it is something to watch as monsoon will be on its peak intensity from the second week of August.

Pakistan Weather Portal (PWP) upgrades this forecast to “high”. This will be the third spell of monsoon in Sindh.

Death toll on hold as rains loses strength !

  • Death toll remains at 63 since July 28

Pakistan Weather Portal (PWP) had been observing the deaths in Pakistan that occur every monsoon season, since June 25 till July 28 a total of 63 people have died across the country the deaths have occurred due to heat waves, isolated flash flooding, windstorms and heavy rainfall. The death toll has not risen as the intensity and coverage of rain as reduced in the country while PWP do except that the death toll may rise as fresh monsoon activity likely from August 8, PWP Media will keep you update on every developing weather story in Pakistan.

Poll of the week

Are you satisfied with the monsoon performance this year in your city? tell Pakistan Weather Portal (PWP) now;

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58 thoughts on “Pakistan Weather Update & Monsoon alert (August 5 – August 12)

  1. nOw evEry oNe EspEciaLLy kAraChI kAy loG PaGaL hO JhAY GaAy KArAcHi Kay log aNtI-PakISTANI HAi @KM cHanGe Ur nAME 2 LAhOrE MeTRO

    • Dear Friend ! You need some mental treatment as you have very ill mind….Kindly change your thinking or if not then please keep it up to you…this is the month of independence and we need unity….
      Karachiites are lovely people as my other pakistani brothers are(living in any part of Pakistan)…Pakistan is beautiful and people of PAkistan too….
      Love Pakistan ! – Love all Pakistanis !

  2. @km
    will these rains will moderate or low rainfall /????

    AND do u agree that this year there is 72 % below normal rains in sindh ???

  3. @ K.M, There is heavy rains forecast for balochsitan in coming days which is not in monsoon region. According to GFS

  4. @JAL
    This is a weather blog not a political blog…
    @Aqib
    As of now, it is extremely below normal monsoon…. as far the intensity of new rains is concerned..it will be mostly moderate..
    @Shoaib
    No heavy rainfall likely in Balochistan, some showers could occur in north-eastern Balochistan like the city of Barkhan which is a monsoon city..

  5. What PWP said 5 days ago (August 3) is now being said by PMD on August 6…Widespread rainfall in Pakistan in coming weeks, PWP said this in “Monsoon of Pakistan page”

  6. PWP said this on august 3 right ? and PMD issued this warning today, So how does it make it 5 days ? i don’t get it =p

  7. will there be heavy rains or will we get fooled like the 1st spell when dark clouds were coming and all we got was a drizzle???

  8. from 10th to 20th AUGUST, karachi main barish he barish, wow,
    Ramadan k barket,ALLAH ka karam.
    InshALLAH bohat barish ho gi,Ameen,
    Thanks a lot in advanced my Sweet ALLAH,love you so so much!!!!!!!!!!!!

  9. @Km
    will these rains in karachi will be like the 1st monsoon or will it be stronger thn that and will it remain raining for 3 to 4 days or not ??????

  10. And for Karachi??? Are there chances for flash and urban flooding?

    If yes, then from which date is expected?

    • 300mm is bit of an exagerration. Its too premature to say the amount of rainfall Karachi would be receving with the current system. It could also turn out that system changes its direction or fizzess off and we might end up getting no rains. So please don’t raise your expecations.

  11. Will the strong western trough interacting with the UAC cause it to intesify into a well marked low ?

  12. OMG if the system comes towards Sindh without losing strength then there will be extremely heavy rainfall INSHA’ALL AH !

  13. WTF ! :@ PMD’s Satellite image dead again :@
    Whenever a system’s c0ming t0wards Sindh, Their sat. image g0es d0wn :@

  14. @demon :

    Like Baber bhai said, it will start to intensify into a l0w pressure fr0m t0night INSHA’ALLAH.

  15. @EVERYONE :

    Check out PMD’s Weekly forecast for Karachi, They’ve updated precipitation chart f0r Karachi to 106.6 MM OMG 😀

  16. Karachi metro yaar you said that system can also change its direction and system can also be fizzes out and in case of this there would be no rain
    so will u tell us k how much percent chances of system to effect system…

  17. check the pmd cities forecast….. hehehe wed ki prediction hi nahin hai …. next week shayad wed nahin ayega

  18. @Tarim
    No the western trough will not cause it to intensify…it will intensify from moisture and heat…
    @Demon
    its a UAC…as of now..
    @Shabib
    I said track might change…not anything else….

  19. K m tell me one thing more…. when will rain start in khi ….. monday night tuesday , tuesday night or wed?

    • Chances from August 10 late and onwards, but that does not mean necessarily that they should start from August 10, a little ups and downs occur…. overall chances of drizzle in 48 hours and heavy rainfall with high winds from August 10 late…

  20. Lol, again this current system is going to b same as the previous moonson system.
    Earlier rains were forecasted on 9th august onwards but now system is saying the rain will start on Friday 12 August.

  21. YES!!! 😀 Allah Karay mere skool k waqt baarish ho 🙂 I just noticed that rain only hits around the weekends :p

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