Pakistan Weather Update and Tropical Alert (October 29 – November 11)

• Cool winds in northern Pakistan!

• Western disturbance 05 and 06!

• Disturbed weather in the Arabian sea!

Background

After three days, the month of November will start across the world. November is known in Pakistan for being an unsettled month interms of weather as temperature across the northern parts of the country start to drop further while the cold waves also start to affect the central and southern parts of the country with weak intensity. Most rainfall that occurs in November in the country is due to western disturbance that cause moderate rainfall, hailstorms and strong winds mainly in the northern parts of the country. Punjab and Khyber experience foggy conditions in month. The southern parts of Pakistan have dry weather in November with misty mornings.

Main features

Following are the main features that Pakistan might experience during the first week of November;

*Western disturbance 05 will continue to affect the extreme northern parts of Pakistan till October 31.

*Fresh western disturbance 06 might affect the upper parts of Pakistan including Islamabad and Peshawar during the end of the first week of November.

*Post-monsoonal tropical depression is in formation that might cause rainfall along the Pakistani coastline during the first week of November; mainly from November 2.

Western Disturbance 05 – Target Gilgit and Jammu & Kashmir

The westerly wave will contine to affect the extreme upper parts of Pakistan till 2 to 3 days after that it will move into India. The strength of WD 05 is weak, it might cause isolated showers in northern Khyber and Gilgit till October 30/31. However due to it’s presence the temperatures will further drop in these areas and adjoining areas.

Western Disturbance 06 – Its Path?

The fresh westerly wave might also affect the upper parts of the country but it will be slightly south-wards therefore north-western Punjab, Khyber and Kashmir will get rainfall due to this system. WD 06 will mostly affect from November 3 night/November 4, due to this wave the weather will get colder. After WD 06, there is no western system in sight.

The plains of Punjab and Khyber could experience foggy conditions, the intensity of fog will increase during the end of November in Punjab and Khyber. Temperatures will decrease further in Islamabad, Khyber, northern Punjab, Gilgit, FATA and Kashmir during the coming week. Following is the forecast of temperature across upper Pakistan;

• Islamabad: Highest (29°C) – Lowest (13°C – 15°C)
• Lahore: Highest (31°C) – Lowest (16°C – 18°C)
• Peshawar: Highest (28°C) – Lowest (15°C – 16°C)

Tropical Storm 02A in development!

• Post-monsoon development!

• Depression 02A: Oman the likely target?

• Not one but two low pressure in Arabian sea!!

The low pressure is expected to attain a deep depression status on the Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) Scale. While it may attain “tropical storm 02A” status on SSHS scale.

On October 28, the low pressure further intensified as the pressure dropped from 1010 mbar to 1005 mbar. The strong low pressure is seen persisting in the central parts of Arabian sea. On October 29, the low pressure showed more signs of intensification as spiral bands developed around the low pressure system as the system continued to move towards Oman in a NW direction. The same day, the low pressure intensified into a well-marked low pressure and during the same afternoon, the well-marked low pressure intensified into a depression “ARB 02”. The storm might deepen further as pressure dropped to 1004 mbar.

As forecasted eariler, the weather system will move towards Oman and adjoining Yemen and weaken gradually due to cold waters. The storm teared into two parts on October 30 morning but later during the day it again started combining. Due to this weather system, showers could extend to coastal parts of Balochistan including Gwadar and some parts of coastal Sindh including Karachi, due to which rainfall/showers may occur from November 2 till 4 morning.

Number of International models hint about a fresh low pressure forming near the Kerala coast of India during the first week of November and that will move towards central Arabian sea and after that it will change its course. It may intensify further during its lifetime in the central Arabian sea. However it is too early to look into this expected system.

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