Cyclone Keila roars in the Arabian sea – Special Coverage!

The special tropical coverage from Pakistan Weather Portal (PWP) is over now!

• Cyclone Keila -First cyclone of 2011 !

• Post monsoon activity in Coastal Sindh!

• Heavy showers with strong winds!

Cyclone Keila has formed in the west central Arabian sea as of November 2, Keila is the first tropical system to reach cyclonic status on the Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) scale. It is the second tropical storm from the Arabian sea while it is the third in the north Indian Ocean according to the Joint Typhoon warning centre (JTWC). Keila is a name contributed by Maldives, it is derived from Arabic word Kayla, which is a female name.

Cyclone Keila is the first tropical system to affect Oman during the month of November, in the past there had been post-monsoon tropical systems in other months but not even one struck Oman in this month, making Keila the first storm to do so since record keeping begin. The last tropical activity in the month of November was in 1993 in Pakistan, the deadly category-1 hurricane killed some 630 people in the country. However depression ARB 02 will not affect Pakistan directly.

What is a tropical depression? – Is it a cyclone?

Depressions are not a cyclone, but it could be termed as the early stages of a tropical cyclone. According to the Indian Meteorological Department (IMD), which is the Regional Specialized Meteorological Center responsible for forecasting tropical cyclones in the Arabian Sea and the Bay of Bengal, if a well-marked low pressure intensifies then it is termed as a depression. Tropical depression has winds up to 30 mph (48 kmph) gusting to 35 mph (56 km/h). If depression further intensifies then it is termed as deep depression.

If a deep depression intensifies into a cyclonic storm on the IMD scale then it is given a name as per international practice. Cyclonic storm have winds 40 mph (64 km/h) and above. Cyclones are much better organized than both the tropical depressions, cyclones have a eye in the centre with the lowest pressure. In other parts of the world, cyclones are termed as hurricane and typhoon.

Timeline of the Cyclone Keila

An upper air cyclonic circulation on October 20 was seen persisting over the Indian state of Kerala. On October 22, the upper air cyclonic circulation moved to Lakshadweep and remained stationary over the same area. It was not untill on October 25 that the upper air cyclonic circulation intensified into a low pressure area at 1010 mbar. The low pressure formed in the south-eastern sector of the Arabian sea. On October 28, the low pressure further intensified as the pressure dropped from 1010 mbar to 1005 mbar. The strong low pressure was seen persisting in the central parts of Arabian sea. On October 29, the low pressure showed more signs of intensification as spiral bands developed around the low pressure system as the system continued to move towards Oman in a NW direction. The same day, the low pressure intensified into a well-marked low pressure and during the same afternoon, the well-marked low pressure intensified into a depression “ARB 02”. On October 31, the depression slightly weakened as the pressure increased to 1005 mbar, but persisting near Oman and adjoining Yemen and during the same afternoon the pressure again decreased to 1004 mbar. On November 1, the storm was seen persisting over west central Arabian sea with slight intensification. On November 2, the deep depression further intensified into Cyclone ‘Keila’ and moved closer to the Omani coastline just 150 km away from Salalah, Oman. On that night, it made landfall over southern Oman. On November 3, Keila weakened into deep depression over the same area. You can also read previous cyclone articles from Pakistan Weather Portal (PWP);

• Cyclone VS Karachi Saint
• Cyclone goes gaga over Sindh
• Detailed history of Cyclones in Pakistan
• Cyclone hits Karachi, India – War with Ghazi deepens!
• History of cyclones in the Arabian sea
• Monsoon 2011 and Cyclones – Sub-continent’s coastal threat?
• Super cyclones – The future of the Arabian sea!!
• Hypercanes – Can they happen?
• The Bhola cyclone – Not so “Bhola” at all!
• Cyclone Yemyin – The untold story!
• Is Arabian sea getting ready to give birth to “Tropical storm 2A”?

Updates regarding Cyclone Keila

WARNING” Fishermen should be cautious from Monday till Thursday in Oman while from Tuesday till Thursday in Pakistan as sea is likely to be rough and waves could reach 3 metres high.”

Both the state governments have always advised the fishermen and sea surfers to not to venture in deep sea due to high tides.

Update on November 4 at 2:00 pm PKT – LAST UPDATE

Remnant low pressure of Keila persists, it is over southern Omani coast and adjoining Arabian sea. Not a significant weather system now. Overall the cyclone Keila caused 14 deaths in Oman with widespread flash flooding due to 250+ mm rainfall in some southern parts of Oman. The system also caused post-monsoonal rainfall in Karachi and adjoining Sindh coast on November 2 and November 3.

Update on November 3 at 10:30 pm PKT

Remnants of Keila as deep depression persists near the coast of Oman, it has weakened further during the last few hours. Isolated to scattered rainfall is still predicted in southern Oman as the depression is still near the coast of Oman. Following are the mean features of the system;

• Movement: NW
• Winds: 35 mph (56 km/h)
• Pressure: 1000 mbar

Cloud cover over southern Pakistan has decreased while Makran coast is mostly clear at the moment. Clouds that covered Karachi this morning have moved completely into Gujarat and Rajasthan, they are dissipating stages.

Update on November 3 at 6:30 pm PKT

Cyclone Keila has weakened into a deep depression and persists over southern coast of Oman, it is gradually weakening. Keila did brought massive torrential rainfall to Oman, where dozens of streets were flooded, the rainfall exceeded 200+ in some areas. The level of moisture incursion into Pakistan has also some what stopped penetrating in the country’s coastline. Following are the mean features of this tropical depression;

• Movement: NW
• Winds: 35 mph (56 km/h)
• Pressure: 1000 mbar

Cloudy intervals may occur at few places of Makran coast and some parts of Sindh till 24 hours with slight chance of drizzle. Following is the amount of rainfall recorded in Pakistan and Oman in 24 hours, moderate showers occurred along Makran coast in the last 24 hours;

• Pakistan
• Karachi, Sindh got TR.
• Badin, Sindh got TR.
• Gwadar, Balochistan got 24 mm.
• Pasni, Balochistan got 16 mm.
• Jiwani, Balochistan got 16 mm.
• Ormara, Balochistan got 6 mm.
• Oman
• Muscat got 26.8 mm.
• Salalah got 12 mm.
• Qairoon Hairti, Station got 32 mm.

Update on November 2 at 9:39 pm PKT

Cyclone Keila has made landfall as of November 2 night as suggested by satellite image, the cyclone will weaken gradually and move along the coast of Oman and Yemen. Cloud cover from Keila has covered whole Oman while spiral bands have extended into adjoining Saudi Arabia. The trough extends into the Pakistani coastline, thunderstorms have covered Makran coast while the thunder clouds are SSW and WSW of Karachi and adjoining Sindh coast, clouds have also covered some central parts of Balochistan. Weak clouds have moved into Gujarat and Rajasthan, outflow into Pakistan has increased as Keila has made landfall over Oman. Following are the main features of Keila;

• Movement: NW (slightly)
• Winds: 40 mph (64 km/h gusting to 85 km/h)
• Pressure: 996 mbar

Update on November 2 at 3:03 pm PKT

  “Cyclone Keila forms in the Arabian sea”

Yesterday’s deep depression intensified into cyclone Keila and lies over west central Arabian sea near the Omani coastline at about 150 km away from Salalah, Oman. It is likely to cross the coast of Oman and adjoining Yemen by Novmeber 2 night/3 morning and weaken gradually. Following are the main features of Cyclone Keila are;

• Movement: WNW
• Winds: 40 mph (64 km/h gusting to 85 km/h)
• Pressure: 996 mbar

No direct affect likely from Tropical cyclone Keila however under the influence of moisture incursion and spiral bands of the Keila, isolated heavy rainfall may occur at few places of Makran coast till November 3 mid-day/evening. While there are also chances of rainfall with mostly light intensity in Karachi and adjoining areas of Sindh coast till 24 to 36 hours. Light showers occurred in many parts of Karachi today.

Update on November 1 at 9:45 pm PKT

Deep depression ARB 02 may intensify (Low probability due to cold waters) further into a cyclonic storm in 12 to 24 hours and move over Oman and adjoining Yemen by November 2 late. Latest satellite images does indicate deepening and thickening of clouds, the storm has more organized itself today. Well-developed Spiral bands can also be seen west of the deep depression ARB 02. Showers have also extended into the Omani capital, Muscat. The trough is seen extending into the Makran coast and adjoining Sindh coast. A thunderstorm will tore away from the tropical system and start to move towards the Makran coast. The tearing feature was first witnessed on October 30. Following are the main features of the system as of now;

• Movement: WNW
• Winds: 35 mph (56 km/h)
• Pressure: 1000 mbar

No direct affect likely on Pakistan, under the influence of moisture incursion and outer bands of this storm, isolated heavy rainfall may occur at many places of Makran coast from tonight/tomorrow. There are chances of rainfall along the Sindh coast from November 2 evening/night. Moderate rainfall occurred at isolated places of Makran including Jiwanai;

1. 20 mm rainfall occurred on November 1 morning

Update on November 1 at 2:56 pm PKT

Yesterday’s tropical depression ARB 02 has intensified into a deep depression ARB 02 and persists near south Oman, over west central Arabian sea. Images do indicate overnight intensification of the system. However no direct affect on Pakistani coast likely. Trough extending towards Pakistani coastlines. Following are the main features of the system as of now;

• Movement: WNW
• Winds: 35 mph (56 km/h)
• Pressure: 1000 mbar

Due to the outer bands and moisture incursion of this deep depression, isolated to scattered heavy rainfall likely along the Makran coast from tonight/tomorrow while chance of isolated heavy rainfall along Sindh coast from November 2 evening/night.

Update on October 31 at 10:25 pm PKT

Tropical depression ARB 02 persist near south Oman, over west central Arabian sea. Latest satellite image does indicate strong clouds in the south-west of the storm while small cloud but thick cloud in the north-east. The trough of the system now seems to be extending into the Indian Gujarat and adjoining Sindh. However the system is near Omani eastern coast and likely to cause heavy showers in next 24 hours. Light rainfall with 32 km/h winds is being reported in Masirah right now, during the afternoon heavy showers occurred in Masirah, the rainfall reached 48 mm in the area. Following are the main features of the storm as of now;

• Movement: WNW
• Winds: 30 mph (45 km/h)
• Pressure: 1004 mbar

The outer bands of depression ARB 02 likely to cause scattered heavy rainfall along the Makran coast from November 1 evening while chance of isolated heavy rainfall along the Sindh coast from mostly November 2.

Update on October 31 at 3:00 pm PKT

The depression ARB 02 persists over west central Arabian sea. It is moving in a north-western direction slowly and due to the interaction with cold water and dry air from the Arabian peninsula, the depression may find it hard to intensify. This  morning, the depression pressure has increased from 1004 mbar to 1005 mbar. Following are the main features of the storm as of now;

• Movement:  WNW
• Winds:  30 mph (45 km/h)
• Pressure:  1005 mbar

The depression’s outer bands may cause heavy rainfall with strong gusty winds along the Makran coastal areas from November 1 night while isolated heavy rainfall with fast to strong winds along the Sindh coast from November 2.

People’s forecast

Pakistan Weather Portal (PWP) wants to know its reader’s thoughts!

This is a “live tropical coverage” that started from October 31 and will end on November 4.