This is a “live tropical coverage” that started from November 7 and ended on November 10.

The special tropical coverage from Pakistan Weather Portal (PWP) is over now!

• Arabian sea warms up again!!

• Second deep depression in a week

• Fresh flooding rainfall in Oman!!

Deep depression ARB 03 is the forth tropical depression from the north Indian ocean for the current year, while the third tropical system from the Arabian sea. There had been four tropical depression in the Bay of Bengal, with one tropical storm according to Joint Typhoon Warning Centre (JTWC). There had been three tropical depression in the Arabian sea with all three intensifying into a tropical storm according to JTWC.

Updates regarding Tropical depression ARB 03

“WARNING: Sea conditions near the southern Arabian Peninsula are likely to be rough from November 8, fishermen and sea surfers should be cautious till 3 days due to cyclonic activity in the Arabian sea.”

Pakistan Weather Portal (PWP)’s forecast

According to Pakistan Weather Portal (PWP) on October 29 forecasted about possible formation of a low pressure near Kerala coast during the end of first week of November and move towards the central Arabian sea and intensify further. As of November 7, everything has happened on time with no major change.  The storm is expected to move towards southern Oman and adjoining Yemen, a similar track when compared with Keila. The tropical depression might further intensify on both IMD and JTWC as conditions are favourable (happened on November 8 ) but once the storm nears Oman it will start to lose its intensity due to cold waters left by cyclone Keila and western disturbance 07 that is approaching the upper and central parts of Pakistan, once the tropical depression nears the Omani coastline it will started to weaken due to unfavourable conditions.

Timeline of Depression ARB 03

On November 2, a low pressure area formed near Kerala and adjoining south-eastern Sindh. On November 3, the low pressure system slightly intensified as pressure dropped from 1008 mbar to 1006 mbar over the south-eastern Sindh and adjoining east central Arabian sea, the other day it intensified into a well-marked low pressure as spiral banding started to develop. On November 6, the convection and upper – level conditions improved as vertical wind shear decreased and the pressure further dropped from 1006 mbar to 1004 mbar with depression ARB 03 forming in the central parts of the Arabian sea. On November 7, it further showed signs of intensification as pressure dropped to 1002 mbar. On November 8, the depression intensified into a deep depression as pressure dropped to 1000 mbar and was forecasted to intensify further but a change in the track caused the system to weaken on November 9. On November 10, it weakened into a well-marked low pressure as vertical wind shear increased and system moved over cold waters, the system moved in a Northly direction and PWP forecasted that it move weaken further and move in a W/WSW direction by tomorrow afternoon and on November 11, its dissipating remnants were over near the Omani coast. What happens now?

Following are the updates regarding for this tropical system;

Update on November 10 at 8:09 pm PKT – LAST UPDATE

Today’s depression ARB 03 has weakened as per PWP’s forecast into a well-marked low pressure during this evening. Low ARB 03 is heavily sheared, moving in a complete northly direction at the moment. Its remnants may start to move in a W/WSW direction by tomorrow afternoon before finally dissipating, cloud cover will also start to reduce from tomorrow afternoon. It is not significant now!

Update on November 10 at 1:00 pm PKT

Depression ARB 03 is present over westcentral Arabian sea and it is weakening rapidly due to the westerlies and cold water. It is expected to weaken into a well-marked low pressure by evening/night. Following are the features of the storm as of now;

• Movement: NW
• Winds: 30 mph (48 km/h)
• Pressure: 1002 mbar
• Under threat: Oman

The trough of ARB 03 is extending towards the upper parts of Pakistan, clouds from ARB 03 have covered whole Pakistan including Afghanistan’s Kabul and Kashmir’s Srinagar, also WD 07 is over the extreme northern areas of Pakistan and Kashmir. Since the system is still over water most heavy downpour has stayed away from Oman, decrease is expected in the overall coverage of rain in Oman from tomorrow afternoon. Due to moisture incursion, there are chances of isolated light showers in coastal Pakistan on November 10.

Update on November 9 at 10:00 pm PKT

Today’s deep depression has further weakened into a depression and expected to weaken further, it is expected to move in a NW direction and weaken into a well-marked low pressure area by tomorrow. Following are the features of the storm as of now;

• Movement: NW
• Winds: 30 mph (48 km/h)
• Pressure: 1002 mbar
• Under threat: Oman

The trough of ARB 03 is extending to the upper parts of Pakistan including Islamabad, WD 07 is also moving over the upper parts of Pakistan. There are some showery clouds over Gwadar and adjoining Makran coast that might cause isolated light showers. While high level clouds over Karachi. Overall the structure of the storm is in the process of deteriorating. Following is the amount of rainfall that occurred in Pakistan due to ARB 03;

• Karachi got TR.

Update on November 9 at 2:00 pm PKT

Deep depression ARB 03 (Tropical storm 04A) persists over west central Arabian sea, has slightly disorganized, it has moved in a NW direction. Following are the features of the storm as of now;

• Movement: NW
• Winds: 35 mph (56 km/h gusting to 70 km/h)
• Pressure: 1000 mbar
• Under threat: Oman

The trough is extending into the Sindh to south Punjab to adjoining parts of Rajasthan, due to moisture incursion isolated light showers may occur at Makran-Sindh coast today/tonight. Light showers have occurred in parts of Oman with rain showers occuring now in Masirah. Following is the amount of rainfall recorded this morning in Oman;

• Muscat got 5 mm.
• Suwaqi got 6 mm.
• Samail got 6.2 mm.
• Al – Amrat got 3 mm.

Update on November 8 at 11:00 pm PKT

Deep depression ARB 03 (Tropical storm 04A) persists over west central Arabian sea,  The storm is 570 km ENE of Socotra Island, Yemen and 620 km ESE of Salalah, Oman. It has moved in a NW direction. It may intensify further in 12 to 24 hours before weakening. There has been developments towards the south of the system that  indicates that ARB 03 is gaining momentum. Following are the features of the storm as of now;

• Movement: NW
• Winds: 35 mph (56 km/h gusting to 70 km/h)
• Pressure: 1000 mbar
• Under threat: Oman and adjoining Yemen

The trough of this weather system is seen extending well into Sindh to Rajasthan, well-developed spiral bands can be seen south of the system. High level clouds due to moisture incursion from ARB 03 is covering Karachi and many parts of Sindh and eastern and coastal Balochistan coast, few parts south Punjab and adjoining Rajasthan, while there is a thundercloud extreme south of Karachi coast that will weaken by the time if it reaches the country’s coastline, under this influence, light showers are expected around the isolated places of Pakistani coast. While heavy thundershowers with strong winds expected in southern Oman including Masirah.

Update issued at 12:09 pm PKT on November 8

Tropical depression has further intensified into a tropical storm 04A on JTWC over west central Arabian sea and a good spiral bands around the system could also be seen, convection has improved. It has also intensified into a deep depression ARB 03, during the next 24 to 36 hours, the storm might intensify further but it will weaken gradually after moving closer to the Omani coast due to westerlies and strong wind shear, due to these conditions it will start to move from WNW to WSW. The trough of tropical storm is extending into the Pakistani coastline, cirrus clouds and other high level clouds can be seen over the Pakistani coastline. Following is the condition of the storm as of now;

• Movement: WNW
• Pressure: 1000 mbar
• Winds: 35 mph (56 km/h)
• Under threat: Oman and adjoining Yemen

Heavy downpours with strong winds (gusty to 45 mph) likely in southern Oman from today till 2 to 3 days. Cloudy weather with chances of light showers expected in Makran coast from tonight while drizzle in Sindh coast.

Update issued on November 7 at 8:00 pm PKT

Tropical depression has further intensified, with improvement in the spiral banding and convection condition. Overall the system is slowly in the process of organization and further intensification. ARB 03 is 1200 km southeast of Salalah, Oman and 1050 km east-southeast of Socotra Island, Yemen (nearest city from the city). Following is the main features of the storm as of now;

• Movement: W
• Pressure: 1002 mbar
• Winds: 30 mph (46 km/h)
• Under threat: Oman and adjoining Yemen

Due to this weather system, fresh flooding rainfall is expected along the southern Omani coastline including Masirah with strong winds from mostly November 8 late till 2 to 3 days. Due to moisture incursion and outer bands of this system, cloudy weather with chances of isolated light showers expected along the Pakistani coastline from November 9 mostly along the Makran coast. Chance of drizzle might occur along the Sindh coast.

People’s forecast

Pakistan Weather Portal (PWP) wants to know your forecast?