Pakistan Weather Update & Monsoon Alert (May 18 – June 1)

  • Clouds make Karachi home!

  • Multan bears the Heat! 

  • New Activity has come and gone?

Precipitation – Temperature till May 25

Western Disturbance 05 entered west-north-west Pakistan on May 16, it caused drizzle in Quetta on the same day. It was of weak intensity.  It caused stray cloud formation in Sindh, predicted by PWP since May 7. The Portal forecasted on May 7;

“Local stray thundercloud would continue to affect parts of Sindh and central Balochistan till mid of May while westerlies could increase their activity over northern Pakistan.”

The western wave has also affected northern parts of Pakistan. Islamabad, Lahore, Multan and Peshawar experienced thundercloud formation, though rainfall have been spotty. There are further chances of rainfall with fast winds in the northern areas till 24 to 36 hours although its intensity is decreasing as it moves towards India. Once the wave moves away, dry weather would prevail over the many parts of the country till few days before a fresh waves moves in on May 20/May 21.

High Temperature in the country 

“Heat wave approaching – Ready to grip the baked areas again!”

The mercury has been on the higher side in some pockets of the country but during the coming days, the mercury is expected to rise further including in the southern parts of the country during the coming weekend. The coming heat wave has the potential to cause the temperatures to rise till 46°C to 48°C in some central and southern cities that is Nawabshah, Multan and other surrounding cities. Following are the temperatures recorded on May 18;

  • Sindh
  • Dadu at 44°C
  • Nawabshah at 44°C
  • Larkana at 44°C
  • Moenjodaro at 42°C
  • Balochistan
  • Turbat at 43 °C
  • Sibbi at 42°
  • Punjab
  • Multan at 42°C

Tropical activity in the North Indian Ocean

As mentioned on May 7, the American Models continue to show a formation of low pressure in the Arabian sea during the coming week while a formation of depression in the Bay of Bengal during the last weeks of May. The Arabian low pressure is expected to fade away as it move westwards/south-westwards due to strong vertical wind shear and dry air while the Bay’s depression has some potential of making landfall as it moves north-eastwards.

Low pressure in the Arabian sea?

But large number of models show a quiet Arabian sea till the beginning of June. A poll conducted by PWP on May 7 shows that 71% people believe that this year Arabian sea would give rise to a tropical depression eariler than the Bay of Bengal.

Monsoon hitting Kerala in 13 days!

Dense cloud formation taking place near Andaman sea on May 18

The Indian Meteorological Department believes that the Monsoon would hit Kerala on the normal date of June 1. Almost all models continue to show that the temperatures of the Pacific ocean are expected to rise, giving a clear way for the unfriendly monsoon phenomenon known as El-Nino to return which means that deficient rainfall could occur in many parts of the Indian Sub-continent. Though the IMD has predicted a normal monsoon this year but during the last El-Nino year in 2009, the IMD predicted above-normal monsoon for India though the country was welcomed by the worst drought since the 1970s.

Pakistan usually gets to see its share of monsoon during the first/second week of July.

The Portal’s Monsoon Poll

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22 thoughts on “Pakistan Weather Update & Monsoon Alert (May 18 – June 1)

  1. dont tell babar bhai that monsoon will again get delayed after 15 july like last year..
    well salam to all PWP Karachiites once again in monsoon season 2012….
    i was active last year and really enjoyed the company of PWP during monsoon season and read all the post and taken part in all discussions

  2. @Mir Afzal and Abid Siddiq – Judging by the expected development of certain climatic changes in late July in the Pacific ocean including El-Nino, which is non-monsoon friendly. It could mean that monsoon 2012 might deliver below normal rains eg 2009. Isolated Urban/flash flooding occurs during every monsoon season.

  3. Nice work Baber sb so far.
    I’m from Larkana and its hell like heat here.
    This was my first visit to your blog, and I liked your efforts.
    I’d like to know whether you give weather forecasts of other cities of the country on your page regularly?

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