Fresh western winds returning!
More rainfall in Punjab?
Poor monsoon performance!
During the first two weeks of July, the country received mostly moderate rainfall that was accompanied by thunder/lightening and fast winds. Keeping the past intensity of ‘monsoon’ rains in mind, the recent rainfalls had a poor strength. The heaviest rainfall that occurred during the first monsoon spell in the country was 76 mm in D.I Khan while the heaviest during the second monsoon spell was 78 mm in Sahiwal.
Pakistan Weather Outlook
*An upper air cyclonic circulations may form in the Bay of Bengal late this week.
*Western Disturbance ’14’ could affect the northern parts of the country from July 20.
Below normal rains in India!
Another spell in Pakistan
Monsoon advancing into Karachi?
Worst rainfall in India since 2009
There is no doubt that this year the monsoon has played hide and seek. The rainy winds have either remained confined to eastern India or the Himalayas due to the western trough. According to the Indian Meteorological Department (IMD), the seasonal deficiency is -21%. While the most crucial rainy month, July has -12%.
Indian states like Gujarat, eastern Rajasthan, Haryana and Punjab have missed out much of rains. The reason? A lull in the Bay of Bengal. However due to the ‘expected’ formation of a weather system in the Bay of Bengal, conditions would again improve from July 20 as the system would move towards central India and intensify further on July 21/July 22.
Future of rains in Pakistan
Pakistan Weather Portal (PWP) forecasts the third monsoon spell hitting the northern parts of the country from July 19/July 20 that would continue till two to three days. While during the same period, the second monsoon spell in central parts (south Punjab) could start. Hence PWP forecasts the third and second monsoon spell hitting the northern and central parts respectively to ‘high’.
The federal capital of Islamabad is expected to receive it’s third monsoon showers of the year from July 19/July 20 that would last till two to three days. The other northern cities that is Lahore, Rawalpindi, Peshawar, Abbottabad, Murree and other adjoining cities are also expected to get monsoon showers during the same period. The rain will be mostly moderate with isolated heavy falls. North-eastern Punjab could also get isolated heavy falls during this week (starting of third spell).
Frequent rainfall is expected near the Azad Kashmir and adjoining Khyber province.
Rainfall is also expected in south Punjab including Multan during the same period. Rainfall would be stable with scattered moderate falls.
Mostly dry weather is expected in this part however there are some chances drizzle/isolated showers in Karachi, Thatta, Badin, Tharparkar, Umerkot, Mirpur Khas, Nawabshah and Hyderabad during late last week of July. High and mid-level clouds could appear in Mirpur Khar and Tharparkar district.
Where is Karachi’s rain?
Karachi along with the southern parts of the country are yet to see their share of monsoon rains. The first monsoon spell entered south-eastern parts of Sindh on July 10 and lasted till 24 hours, hence it advanced into Sindh on July 10. It needs to advance more further into the western parts. There are slim chances of the second monsoon spell during the late last week of July.
Till then Karachi is expected to witness passing clouds that could cause drizzle/isolated showers with fast winds. No need of a umberalla!
Another spell brewing?
There are more rains ahead as well. The fourth and third monsoon spell can start in the same areas (North and Central parts) during the late last week of July. Hence PWP forecast this spell hitting the country to ‘poor’ at the moment. However the fourth spell is likely to be stronger in intensity when compared with the third one.
Poll of the week
Pakistan Weather Portal (PWP) wants to know that;
68 replies to “Pakistan Weather Update & Monsoon Alert (July 17 – July 24)”
@ K.M, Weather is behaving abnormally, Karachi waiting for first rains while Punjab has more rainfall and rainfall forecast
I dont think weather is behaving abnormally… southern part of pakistan remains mostly dry with very less rains while northern half of pakistan get much more rain usually.Google climate of pakistan if you need more info…
Should wait till july ends…
Baber bhai MIrpurkhas m Heavy rain kb hogi?
No such chances till some days…
“Dull conditions to continue”
The ugly truth !
Well, dont expect a repeat of 2011 rains..
July is already affected and in august el nino will appear means no remarkable rains for sindh this year?? Khuda kare la nina appear hojae!
Its only middle of July yet…
Yes sir its mid of july yet but no rain is expected in sindh for coming 7,8 days,,if we get a shower in end of july although it will be considerd as less than normal,.may be iam wrong
Sir please tell us that what will be the intensity of rains in sindh from coming spell?and will the spell cover entire sindh or it will be restricted to the eastern sindh like 1st spell?
There are still slim chances however if it happens it would cover more areas than the previous one..
dost thundrstorm is passing now frm northern punjab. Is this becoz of westerly trough? I really love monsoon clouds and rains, hope to get a heavy rain during next two days,with the connection of western trough and moonsoon. Babar bhai what’s ur perdiction for Rwp/Islmbad for 3rd monsoon spell?
Western winds are responsible..The third monsoon spell has started a day earlier, you could read this article and update on ‘monsoon of Pakistan’ page..
Will lahore get rain tonight?
Might have got some dusty winds last night….however tonight rainfall with thunder/lightening could occur and hence 3rd spell would start there..
Sir iam reading the last years archives they are full with the rainfall predictions in sindh but this year thats not happening,,every forecast of rain is only for upper parts and punjab,,so we can say this is discrimination of monsoon this year,,
Last year rain started during the last week of July (like now)..Punjab has also gotten less rain when compared with last year..
So far only one proper rain in LHR [(25mm) July average is around 230mm)] which is quite unusual. If it continues like this the heat would be unbearable in Ramazan. In August/September you have mentioned El-Nino. Doesn’t look like around 50% below normal rainfall in the season for Lahore?
And that too has been spotty…We havent seen any good rain here in defence from the start of the season…
western winds should keep the temp on lower side..and yes the rains have been below normal..
Sir what will be the situation in sindh in august? Will monsoon intensifies or not?
Will the temperature rise in sindh in ramzan?
Mostly stable, monsoon would improve over the country NOT intensify..
what is forecast for rain in sukkur
some chances during late last week of July…
is that any chance of repeat of last year rains in sindh as whole
Sir what will happen in aug.sep in southern sindh?
Some showers could occur in August..but September is far away…
Which parts would be affected in pakistan by the expected low pressure in bob?
After central parts, its not showing a stable track…either upper parts or lower parts…
Already had clouds with winds from north east in the afternoon. now it seems a serious thunderstorm with dark clouds are forming here in Gujranwala from north and west. I want to ask whether Gujranwala is in upper punjab, north punjab or north east punjab because i have read all three locations for Gujranwala.
North and Upper Punjab is same… its basically in NE Punjab..
Still waiting in lahore for any good monsoon rain…When is good rain expected in lahore?
4th spell looks better than 3rd one (current).. but not promising anything yet..
Some forecasters are saying monsoon will remain pleasant with intermittent rains throughout the month….What do you say? This hot and humid weather is killing us specially during roza and humidity has increased from yesterday in lahore making roza more difficult….
And also lahore comes in north/north east punjab or central punjab?
Rains are expected but they would come with breaks.. Too be precise, Lahore is in NE Punjab..
Sir in nawab shah we are facing stuffiness no wind is blowing from friday even in night as well..why? Is any system developing or something else?
Some thunderclouds are nearby..
@ K.M, Cannot understand that Punjab walo nay kabhe khuda ka shukar ada hi nahi kiya. June say waha itni barish ho chuki hai aur aaj bhe Lahore mein barish huwi hai. Punjab walo ko tab pata chalayga jab waha Karachi ki tarha Dry weather hoga whole year. Itni barish honay ke baad bhe Punjab ke log kabhe khush hi nahi hotay. Yahan Karachi mein barish ka name aur nishan tak nahi hai aur next 10 day ki forecast bhe upset hai.
Dear bro summer especially monsoon in punjab is very hot and humid than karachi. if it doesnt rain the temperature comfortably goes above 40C along with severe humidity which often becomes unbearable hence we pray for rain to get some relief. whereas in karachi during monsoon temperature remains in mid thirties along with sea breeze which is bearable weather hence no such need of rain to lower the temperature unlike punjab especially north punjab where we live.
Its basically the climate.. Karachi has a hot and semi-arid climate..
@ K.M, I just cannot understand that what more Punjabi’s want? Punjab areas gets rains during winter,summer,Monsoon and almost whole year and every other day of each month but cannot understand what they want? Here, In Karachi daily there is sunshine and people wait for rains whole year but still Karachi people allah ka shukar ada karti hai har haal mein aur yeh Punjab walay agar har next day bhe rain hogi phir bhe shukar ada nahi kartay aur jo shukar ada nahi kartay inko phir woh kuch bhe nahi milta jo pehlay mil raha hota hai. From June Punjab mein bohut rain hochuki hai but shukar hi ada nahi kartay
Your post made me laugh -_-
Mr. Shoaib, Currently I am in Lahore and also lived in Karachi in the past. You have no idea how terrible it gets in Punajb in monsoon. There is absolutely no wind and with a combination of high temperature and high humidity makes one feel suffocating. Karachi has lovely sea breeze throughout monsoon with drizzle making it very pleasant.
Yesterday it rained heavly in eastern and southern parts of Lahore making the weather even more muggy as other parts remained completely dry with sunshine. Right now the temp is 40 Degrees with Feels like at 49 degrees. Judge it yourself!
sir what is meant by ‘seasonal low’ and why it often lies over north balochistan with its trough extending southwards ???
Its nothing important, its an area where atmospheric pressure is the lowest, Northern areas of the country gets more westerlies than monsoon systems that is the reason however when there is a monsoon low pressure or a strong thunderstorm nearby then the clouds come from eastern direction..
sir i have another question, particularly in Upper Punjab and especially in Gujranwala most thunderstorms whether due to westerlies or monsoon come from west or northwest, whereas sometimes in summer thunderstorms come from northeast from kashmir side and very few come from south. i want to ask for westerlies it may be fine but monsoon winds and clouds actually come from east/southeast from india then why do thunderstorms often come from west or north west and not from southeast??? thanks
What the hell is wrong with this guy who is using the sleezy terms like ‘ Punjab walaay’ again and again. Has he gone nuts??? its because of people like these that Pakistan finds itself in the mess that its in. We need to talk sense and crap for starters. In punjab during June, July and august the temperature reaches highes of upto 48 degrees with humidity in high 80’s against the mild weather of Karachi which is also helped by the pleasant night sea breeze Alhamdolillah. I live in Punjab and visit Karachi often so i know this for a fact rather than the guy who’s mindlessly talking gibberish. Noone can claim that they are more Shukar Guzaars bandaas of Allah (ST) by themselves as self professed claims are the most silly things that are out there.
This is a great site and lets try to keep it that way by keeping it ProPakistan rather than promoting ethnicities
Mera matlab woh nahi tha, Jo aap samajh rahay ho. Aap kuch aur hi samajh rahay ho aur waisa kuch hai hi nahi. Yahan Shukar say murad hai ke Happy to raho
Sir the spell you predicted in 1st week of august is for sindh or upper parts of country?
Mostly for Up Pakistan…
Sir will central sindh get any shower in this monsoon or not?? Its looking that we will get no rain becoz now it is being said that a typhoon has developed in china and this will distract flows of monsoon,,
Showers of mild intensity have occurred in SE Sindh, there is still a month of August. Typhoon has not affected the flow.
IT’s FUNERAL FOR KARACHI MONSOON THIS YEAR.
LETS HOPE FOR GOOD NEXT YEAR
@ K.M, I know this is not political Blog, Weather apni jagah but Allah say dua hai kay hamaray Country Pakistan kay halaat theek hojaye Ramzan ki barkat say. Such mano to Is tarha kay halaat dekh kar khoon jal jata hai. Kahi bomb pathta hai to kisi target killing aur batha khori to kahi loot mar aur pata nahi kya kya kiya. Politicians Childrens ki tarha lartay rehtay hai aur ilzam tarashi kartay rehtay hai aur koi bhe responsible nahi. Mein yahan is liyay keh raha hu kay sab dua karengay to zaroor qabool hogi. Allah Pakistan ki dushmano say hifazat karay, AMEEN
Every Pakistani is upset over the situation of the country, we all must pray.
Is there any site that provides radar images for pakistan?
On Pak met office..
sir i have two questions:
1. Is Gujranwala included in the rainy areas of Pakistan ?
2. Considering the whole year weather pattern( western disturbances and monsoons), is it possible to have a drought in india whereas normal rains in Pakistan ?
The weather pattern of India and Pakistan are linked so its unlikely. Gujranwala is located in NE parts that gets to see frequent thundercloud formation nearby.
when normal monsoonal rains start in hyderabad may be the second week of august is so rainy. It’s my think plz give your predication for hyderabad and addjoining areas
Its still far away and looks blurry..
Respected Sir, any rains in august for Lakki Marwat?? We have sown alot of Guar in our area and are depending heavily on moonsoon rains for the crop to come out fine. Kindly, give us a detailed summary of our rain forecast in august. We’ll be extremely obliged. Thank you. May Allah be with you and may He shower a rain full of blessings on all of us. Ameen.
Welcome Hisham 🙂 A 6th spell has been forecasted but since Lakki Marwat is in south Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (western Pakistan) it mostly escapes the major affect of summer westerlies as well as monsoon winds. There are chances of some showers on August 4/August 5.
whenever i get up in the morning or night i see the sky ,when i see no cloud,rains i feel bad .July has gone and August has started but still no rains in Hyderabad.
I think monsoon will not come in Sindh this year .