(Updated on February 15)
Western winds to interact to eastern winds!
New system less powerful in Pakistan!
Showers coming in Karachi?
The country experienced a powerful Winter storm ’18’ that brought countrywide rainfall with scattered destruction as well as 40 people died in during February 3 till February 6. The winter season is not over yet as another western system is moving towards the country, it is of less intensity and its more northern than its predecessor but due to local instability (atmospheric conditions) it could cause isolated stray thunderclouds to form over many parts of the country.
No significant change in temperature is seen, a slight warming trend may occur.
Brief Timeline of Western disturbance ’19’
Due to interaction of eastern-western moisture, heavy rainfall/snowfall at times locally very heavy might occur over north-western India till February 17 morning/mid-day. On night/late night of February 14, Western disturbance ’19’ would enter into north-western Balochistan and continue till move towards northern areas of Pakistan, on February 15 late, some mature thunderstorms could form over western states of India near Pakistan. On February 17 mid-day/evening, western disturbance ’19’ would have become insignificant.
India can get more than Pakistan
This time, the weather will be more active in India than in Pakistan, as forecasted by PWP since February 6, western disturbance ’19’ atleast in Pakistan seem to be weaker in intensity than winter storm ’18’. There is an upper air cyclonic circulation over Rajasthan while eastern trough is extending from south-east Arabian sea till north-east Arabian sea, this will cause the moisture from Arabian sea to strengthen the western system.
In Pakistan, rainfall would remain below 75 mm to 80 mm starting from February 14 till February 17 in the northern areas. Chances of frequent precipitation in Killa Abdullah, Pishin, Killa Saifullah and adjoining Zhob including Quetta from February 14 till February 15 with few chances of isolated heavy falls. Precipitation to remain around >50 mm in these areas of Balochistan. Snowfall at times heavy could occur in Murree and other northern areas. Fresh Western disturbance ’20’ could affect the country after four to five days.
Northern areas – Isolated heavy rainfall possible!
Rainfall could be below 75 mm/80 mm in Muree (Punjab), Muzaffarabad (Azad Kashmir), Kalam (Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa), Besham Naran (Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa), Dasu (Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa), Saidu (Khyber Paktunkhwa), Kagan (Khyber Paktunkhwa) and Mardarn (Khyber Paktunkhwa)and other adjoining areas. During this period, Islamabad can around 50 mm to 55 mm with thunder/lightning and fast winds.
While in Punjab especially north-eastern parts that are Sialkot, Jhelum, Gujrat, Gujranwala and Lahore – there could be rainfall with thunder/lightning along with fast winds. Rainfall of 35 mm to 50 mm here as per latest analysis.
Central areas – Moderate showers
South Punjab that is Multan, Bahawalpur, Bahawalnagar, Rahim Yar Khan and adjoining cities may experience a light rain shower with chances of moderate falls that would remain around 10 mm to 30 mm on February 15 morning till February 16. Eastern South Punjab to witness more rain.
Southern areas – Showers aiming Karachi again?
There are chances of drizzle/shower in Sindh that is Dadu, Hyderabad, Nawabshah, Sukkur, Larkana and other surrounding cities) on February 15 but especially Sukkur and Nawabshah while rainfall under 10 mm could occur. Karachi may get 1 mm to 4 mm rain on the same day. Whenever PWP has forecasted rain in Karachi in winter season (2012 -2013), it rained!
Updates regrading the system
Update issued on February 15 at 10:30 pm
Western disturbance ’19’ is moving into India now, thus the rainfall in Pakistan would start to decrease from tonight/tomorrow morning. The system has brought countrywide rainfall however the temperatures have not much been affected like in previous cases. A low pressure is pulling the moisture into India as it moves towards central western parts of India from Rajasthan.
PWP successfully predicted all four winter rains in Karachi this season though intensity varied.
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