Pakistan Weather Update (February 14 – February 28)

(Updated on February 15)

  • Western winds to interact to eastern winds!

  • New system less powerful in Pakistan!

  • Showers coming in Karachi?

Precipitation - Temperature (February 14 - February 21)
Precipitation – Temperature (February 14 – February 21)

The country experienced a powerful Winter storm ’18’ that brought countrywide rainfall with scattered destruction as well as 40 people died in during February 3 till February 6. The winter season is not over yet as another western system is moving towards the country, it is of less intensity and its more northern than its predecessor but due to local instability (atmospheric conditions) it could cause isolated stray thunderclouds to form over many parts of the country.

No significant change in temperature is seen, a slight warming trend may occur.

Brief Timeline of Western disturbance ’19’

Due to interaction of eastern-western moisture, heavy rainfall/snowfall at times locally very heavy might occur over north-western India till February 17 morning/mid-day. On night/late night of February 14, Western disturbance ’19’ would enter into north-western Balochistan and continue till move towards northern areas of Pakistan, on February 15 late, some mature thunderstorms could form over western states of India near Pakistan.  On February 17 mid-day/evening, western disturbance ’19’ would have become insignificant.

India can get more than Pakistan

This time, the weather will be more active in India than in Pakistan, as forecasted by PWP since February 6, western disturbance ’19’ atleast in Pakistan seem to be weaker in intensity than winter storm ’18’. There is an upper air cyclonic circulation over Rajasthan while eastern trough is extending from south-east Arabian sea till north-east Arabian sea, this will cause the moisture from Arabian sea to strengthen the western system.

In Pakistan,  rainfall would remain below 75 mm to 80 mm starting from February 14 till February 17 in the northern areas. Chances of frequent precipitation in Killa Abdullah, Pishin, Killa Saifullah and adjoining Zhob including Quetta from February 14 till February 15 with few chances of isolated heavy falls. Precipitation to remain around >50 mm in these areas of Balochistan. Snowfall at times heavy could occur in Murree and other northern areas. Fresh Western disturbance ’20’ could affect the country after four to five days.

Northern areas – Isolated heavy rainfall possible!

50 mm to 70 mm rainfall in the north
50 mm to 70 mm rainfall in the north

Rainfall could be below 75 mm/80 mm in Muree (Punjab), Muzaffarabad (Azad Kashmir), Kalam (Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa), Besham Naran (Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa), Dasu (Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa), Saidu (Khyber Paktunkhwa), Kagan (Khyber Paktunkhwa) and Mardarn (Khyber Paktunkhwa)and other adjoining areas. During this period, Islamabad can around 50 mm to 55 mm with thunder/lightning and fast winds.

While in Punjab especially north-eastern parts that are Sialkot, Jhelum, Gujrat, Gujranwala and Lahore – there could be rainfall with thunder/lightning along with fast winds. Rainfall of 35 mm to 50 mm here as per latest analysis.

Central areas – Moderate showers

South Punjab that is Multan, Bahawalpur, Bahawalnagar, Rahim Yar Khan and adjoining cities may experience a light rain shower with chances of moderate falls that would remain around 10 mm to 30 mm on February 15 morning till February 16. Eastern South Punjab to witness more rain.

Southern areas – Showers aiming Karachi again?

There are chances of drizzle/shower in Sindh that is Dadu, Hyderabad, Nawabshah, Sukkur, Larkana and other surrounding cities) on February 15 but especially Sukkur and Nawabshah while rainfall under 10 mm could occur. Karachi may get 1 mm to 4 mm rain on the same day. Whenever PWP has forecasted rain in Karachi in winter season (2012 -2013), it rained!

Updates regrading the system

Update issued on February 15 at 10:30 pm

Western disturbance ’19’ is moving into India now, thus the rainfall in Pakistan would start to decrease from tonight/tomorrow morning. The system has brought countrywide rainfall however the temperatures have not much been affected like in previous cases. A low pressure is pulling the moisture into India as it moves towards central western parts of India from Rajasthan.

PWP successfully predicted all four winter rains in Karachi this season though intensity varied.

Poll of the Week

Pakistan Weather Portal (PWP) wants to know;

86 replies to “Pakistan Weather Update (February 14 – February 28)

    1. mostly moderate with chances of isolated heavy falls, hail may occur however more chances of hail in north-eastern parts of the country that is Punjab.

  1. is there any chance of rain in pakistan especially karachi in the near future. i have seen weather map of bbc it shows another weather system could approach by true????

  2. hoe much amount of rainfall did lahore recieve during wd 18 and 19.also want to knw the expected amount of rainfall in lahore due to coming wd 20?

  3. from satellite and other sites of weather the duration of wd 20 seems like that it would stay for a whole week in pakistan is it???

    1. Well you should enjoy thunder and lightning it adds to the effect of rain i love it when its raining heavily and you can also hear thunder roaring.:) Lightning strikes are bad when it causes damage but that’s rare here in Lahore!

  4. Daniyal bro yahan aao tow pta chle :). u r right i have also observed that it doesnt thunder a lot in Lahore as compared to Gujranwala & Sialkot. Dont know why. Perhaps Babar bhai could tell us the reason……. 🙂

  5. “BREAKING NEWS: Third active February rain system (western disturbance ’20’) heading towards Pakistan; countrywide rainfall expected. Intensity is weaker than WD 18 but stronger than WD 19. Moisture is coming from the Arabian sea”.
    can we expect more rains in pakistan especially karachi in next few days 😀

  6. umar khan it thunderz only in winter or spring rainfalls nowadays. not in intense winter season and even not in monsoon so enjoy these 2 or 3 months.

  7. Are there any chances of rain in karachi on 20-28 of february.In the upper parts of there are chances of rain,but i don’t think that it’s rain in karachi these days and other else Allah knows.

  8. babar bhai. monsoon conditions kab se banna shuru hoti hain?? bcz me bangladesh ka temperature dekh ra tha wahan to abhi se 33 34 degrees pe pohanch gia hai. to bay of bengal me monsoon activity kab se shuru hoti hai???

  9. Babar bhai Larkana mei buhat heavy rain huwa hai aur yeh 5th baar heavy rain larkana mei huwa hai February month ka har bar rain system ki 2 din to rain hoti hai! and yeh aj sham sy start huwa hai aur kab tak chalega ? and i think ek aur new rain system araha hai sindh province me ?can you verify that ?

    1. Yes, also in Karachi heavy rainfall with intense thunderstorm also hail also occurred in this winter season. Another system is coming, Sindh does not have much chances from it.

  10. Mirpurkhas ki tareekh m aj 1st time itni Shiddat wali Rala bari hui hai with heavy 2 v.heavy rain…yeh kexy mumkin hua babar bhai?

  11. Warm here in Lahore with high temperatures of 30…Will the temperatures continue to rise in Lahore and any wd expected to cause rain in Lahore during next few days?…And also i cant see the recent replies on the main page can you fix it :p

    1. This warming trend is normal. A WD ’22’ is coming it could cause temperatures to slightly decrease in the country. Mostly cloudy weather could occur in Lahore during the weekend. working on the problem 🙂

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