Beware of the Gushing Waters, Pakistan!
Pakistan should gear up and take necessary precautions ! because if the history is to be trusted then south Pakistan should expect a cyclone (hurricane) to affect its coastal areas during the upcoming summer. An astonishing pattern is seen in the Arabian sea as cyclones are following a ‘schedule’ to affect southern parts of Pakistan. There are five reasons to believe that a cyclone is coming this year!
Cyclones form in which month?
Cyclones in the Arabian sea (see Cyclones in Pakistan) form mostly from May till June and then from September till October, monsoon season plays a vital role for the formation of cyclone in this basin. Tropical storms that hit Pakistan are mostly remnants by the time reach Pakistan or make landfall in south eastern Sindh which is not very much populated they rarely move towards the Balochistan coast.
Each year before the onset of monsoon that is 15 April to 15 July and also after its withdrawal that is 15 September to 15 December, there is always a distinct possibility of the cyclonic storm to develop in the north Arabian Sea. There is a 98 per cent chance of cyclones to turn towards the Indian state of Gujarat, one per cent chance of moving towards the Gulf and one per cent chance of moving towards the Pakistani coast.
Top Five Reasons to believe the cyclone is coming this summer!
Since the 21st century, the country has seen frequent storms developing in the Arabian sea moving towards it’s coastline. Following are the reasons;
1.1998 Gujarat Cyclone – A category-3 cyclone, it killed 12 people in Karachi due to heavy rainfall. It affected Pakistan indirectly.
2. 2001 India Cyclone – The third most strongest hurricane (category-3) in the Arabian sea, had winds upto 135 miles per hour. It caused 100,000 people to be evacuated from Sindh province. It affected Pakistan indirectly.
3. 2004 Cyclone ‘Onil’ – The first cyclone to be named in the north Indian ocean. Onil brought 145 mm rainfall to Thatta, caused whole drainage system to collapse in Hyderabad while nine people died in Karachi. It affected Pakistan directly as a result 300 went missing, possibly dead.
4. 2007 Cyclone ‘Gonu’ and ‘Yemyin’ – Super Gonu (category-5) was the strongest hurricane in the Arabian sea while the second strongest in the North Indian ocean, it destroyed 200 boats in Gwadar, Gonu affected the country indirectly. Cyclone ‘Yemyin’ killed 200 people in Karachi with week long torrential rainfall, it affected the country directly.
5. 2010 Cyclone ‘Phet’ – The second strongest hurricane (category-4) in the history of the Arabian sea, it killed 15 people in Pakistan. Most damage occurred along the Makran coast. It affected the country directly.
So what is conclusion!
1998, *1999, 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013!
It is quite clear that AFTER TWO YEARS there is a cyclone in the Arabian sea that affects Pakistan either directly or indirectly! Even though there were cyclones between these years but none of them affected Pakistan with the *exception of 1999 cyclone.
2013 Pakistan Cyclone?
The above mentioned details of a coming cyclone are NOT based on a meteorological forecast but rather on an astonishing historical pattern that has caused the country to be affected by a cyclone after every two years! (we saw in 1998, 2001, 2004, 2007, 2010)
Meteorological Forecast – Things are getting hot?
The Sea Surface Temperatures (SST) are somewhat high in the Indian ocean (both parts) as compared to other oceans. According to the map released by the U.S National Weather Service, it showed that temperatures are 29°C to 30 °C (some small pockets have above 30 °C) in the south-east Arabian sea as well as the lower Bay of Bengal.
High temperatures in the south Indian ocean were responsible for a tropical disturbance that was sheared due to high vertical wind shear before further intensification during the past week. The southern parts of Bay of Bengal is also experiencing a formation of tropical thunderstorms that could be an area of interest for future forecast.
As far as the Arabian sea is concerned as mentioned, the south-eastern parts have high temperatures but the northern sector (Sindh-Gujarat coast) is generally stable with 22°C to 24°C, the temperatures could increase in the coming months. So is the PWP’s “AFTER TWO YEAR MYTH” true? It is possible because cyclones are coming to Pakistan after every two years!
94 thoughts on “A Cyclone is coming to Pakistan this year!”
waoo tropical cyclone. but babar bhai cyclones pakistan me ate ate rukh mor lete hain is ki kia waja hai. secondly ye zaror btaiye ga ke cycolnes ki formation ka hmare han monsoon ki intensity se koi taluq hai?????
There are number of factors that block the cyclone, in short, high pressure, low pressure, wind shear and other weather system have impact on the system. Monsoon and cyclones are somewhat related. But it is not necessary that if the monsoon is strong then we shall have an active tropical season.
wat did i tell you ???? babar bhai afta u im second meteorologist yar
Hahaha, yeah! I used the word “landfall” to give people a hint 😀
Babar bhai this is such a disappointment! You had created hype as if something really stunning was coming up. And look what came up in the end: pretty much equivalent of khoda pahaar, nikla chouha. One doesn’t expect a report based on a coincidental pattern which is not scientifically or meteorologically proven. Quite disappointed, I am.
Buddy, the fact of the matter is when you see a storm of same features (tropical) coming after every two years in the country and killing 10+ people and sometime more than 100 people then I think it is important to ‘Highlight’ that thing in a big way. We shouldnt ignore this historical fact, this article is highlighting it in the biggest way possible to create awareness!!
Babar bhai i commented yesterday that this article might be based on cyclones so i m also a type of meteorologist and please tell me that when will the monsoon system hit Pakistan especially in karachi but forecasts are changed by the mighty allah.
Hahahaha, it was quite understandable once the word ‘landfall’ was used, which is generally used for cyclones. Too be honest as of now, PWP is not focusing on monsoon season, in may PWP will monitor them.
i hope it rains good this summer in karachi, but I also pray for no damage of livestock or people from these kinds of rain. May Allah protect us all. Ameen. 🙂
I also pray that no loss of life occurs, in the end its the poor who suffers, May Allah look after Pakistan!
What is the updates of El nino and La nina patterns this year.
One more short rain spell is coming to Karachi on Monday from west..
First time we are experiencing this rains April right ?
No last year too we experienced a light rain with rough sea! But this time its going to be heavy rain.
Neutral conditions are expected this year.
IS IT GOING TO AFFECT ISLAMABAD.
Cyclone cannot affect the northern areas including Islamabad.
the cyclone is also affect multan?
Cyclone cannot affect Multan!!
I would only say
STORM IN TEA CUP
i was asking if remnants of it the cyclone will give isb rain.
Babar Bhai tell me that cyclone will give rains to Upper Sindh Areas. Larkana, Sukkur !
on which city of pakistan would be cyclone occur?
Coastal cities are mainly affected.
Is Heavy rain expected in Karachi tomorrow ? Or light to moderate ?
hello…i am reading your blog from past one year and your predictions are very accurate,so keep it up PWP
Thank you very much Ateeb 🙂
Raining heavily with thunder and lightning 😀
Yes, it was very heavy in the beginning, now little stable.
Now the sky is completely clear.
Any updates ?
dry weather now with mostly cloudy intervals.
EXCELLENT POST. HOPE THIS YEAR KARACHI WILL RECEIVE MORE RAIN.
Thank you very much, hope it rains more.
when will be rain will begin in multan?
kal ho gi, 🙂
Tomorrow chances of drizzle…
What is the pridiction for karachi. is this spell continue till tommorow or weeking.
It ended in the afternoon…
tez barish ho gi ya halki ho gi?
written in the update post.
Is that a cyclone forming in the Indian Ocean ?
Cyclone Imelda in SOuth Indian ocean.
there is not rainf in multan?
Salam Baabar bhai I m 4m D.I.khan where is Jr article about Moon soon and kindly tell me is there are any chance of rain in d.I.khan in rest of april
walikum assalam – It will be uploaded in May as per schedule.
AASALAMO ALIKUM BABAR BHAI KIYA HALL HAI BABAR BHAI MAINE YEH PUCHNA THA APSE K KARACHI MEIN IS MONTH RAIN HOGI YA NAHI AUR AGAR HOGI TO KB TAK EXPECTED HAI PLZ REPLY ME AND WAITIN YOUR ANSWER THANKING YOU
Walikum assalam – So far no chance of rain…
Aasalamo alikum babar bhai kiya hall hai sir karachi main koi new spell aa raha hai i think 20 date ko kyun k kuch site par rain show ho rahi hai karachi main 20 ya 23 date ko kindly ap mjhe bata den plz babar bhai apk reply ka wait kar raha hun thanking you sir.
Walikum assalam Ahsan – There are no chances of rain in Karachi yet.
AOA.Babar bhai bahawalpure me kab tak rain ho gi…ALI…
Not till some days.
in multan is there are chances of heavy rainfall in this month?
Not as of now.
Salam Babar Bhai I found your blog last year on 17th May when a dust storm hit karachi in the evening and i was looking for the weather update on the net. I found PWP a great site for weather forecast.
AOA.Babar bhai bahawalpure me 2ya3 days tak rain ke chances hain kya..plz tell me…
no chance of rain seen as of yet.
here in hyderabad we are having dark thunderclouds with fast winds.. from which system they have came ?
when will be rain will begin in multan
Few clouds nearby
Dear babar bhai,
Is there any chance of thunderstorm to convert in cyclone? which formed in Oman coast.
will it affect to pakistan?
There are no chance of that thunderstorm converting into a cyclone.
AOA.Babar Bhai bahawalpure me koi chance hai rain ke…
Some weak clouds passing from South Punjab.
karachi main rain ka chance hai babar bhai ab reply plz
Yes there are chances..
Babar bhai kab tak chances hain karachi main rain k?
Walikum Assalam, Chances of drizzle persist till 24 hours.
ur predictions become true Pwp well done Uac form in north arabian sea cyclonic circulation
UAC is totally different from a cyclone. 😛
What is the prediction over the weekend for Islamabad, Peshawar and the route between Islamabad and Peshawar i.e. Mardan, Charsadda, Swabi etc
This is the last WD that is bringing rain after that it is going to be dry period till many days.
Cyclone is saal Arabian Sea mein develop ho sakta hai lekin abhi kuch andaza nahi . abhi to 51% = Yes & 49% = No , yehi chances lagte hain . May ke mahine mein kuch behtar idea ho paiega .
Not only will Pakistan have frequent visits from cyclones, but there is a new storm track forming in spring each year, coming from the south that goes through Arabia before it rains on Pakistan. This new storm track is what gave Arabia the heaviest rains in 25 years, last week.
It rained a lot this winter season in Karachi, it seemed as if monsoon was here. Winter rains usually dissipate quick and are very and short but this time they were severe.
Plz pakistan monsoon rain when will strat?
Making an article…
Plz pakistan weather update news via sms
It is in consideration..
your predicitons are very true, dear babar
Thank you 🙂
AOA.Babar bhai bahawalpure me rain ke chances hain kya…
No chance in Bahawalpur during the next 24 hours.
any update cyclone in karachi ?
ok thank you for your reply
there is a cyclone in karachi june 4 2013 updates … plz inform about this thx
News from 2011.
aoa there is any chance of flood dis year?
If you are thinking of floods like 2010 then no.
cyclone what numerology said :
1998 : 1+9+9+8= 27 = 2+7= 9
2001: 2+0+0+1= 3
2004: 2+0+0+4= 6
2007: 2+0+0+7= 9
2010: 2+0+1+0= 3
2013: 2+0+1+3= 6
number 6 ? check this all numbers are divisible by 3 ? so its a possibility through numerology that cyclone are coming this year 🙂
Thats nice. The PWP’s cyclone myth is strong, we still have October till December.
babar bhai plz plz ap mujhy sirf ye bataen ke is year monsoon ki intensity kesi or kya is year kisi cyclone ki development hogi plz rpl krna apki mahrbani hogi?????=D