Cyclone Mahasen threatens Bangladesh, Myanmar and India – Special Coverage!

“This is a special tropical coverage that started from May 13 and will end on May 16”

    

The 2013 North Indian ocean cyclone season started off with the formation of a depression BOB 01 in the Bay of Bengal on May 10 that later intensified into the season’s first full blown cyclone. On average 4 to 6 tropical depressions form in the North Indian ocean, more in the Bay of Bengal than the Arabian sea.

King ‘Mahasen’ cyclone! 

Cyclone ‘Mahasen’ formed on May 11 in the southern Bay of Bengal, the word ‘Mahasen’ has been contributed by Sri Lanka.  Mahasen was a king of Sri Lanka who ruled the country from 275 to 301 AD.

Rare: Connection of South and North Indian Ocean

A very rare phenomenon occurred both in the south-west and north Indian ocean. On May 11, cyclone ‘Jamala’ in the south-west Indian ocean was just south of cyclone ‘Mahasen’. Jamala was moving in a clockwise-direction while Mahasen was moving in a counter-clockwise direction however later in the day Mahasen absorbed the moisture from Jamala as it was the larger storm thus leading a end of Jamala.

In May 2002, this phenomenon took place when a cyclone formed in North Indian ocean’s Arabian sea while another cyclone in south-west Indian ocean was near Madagascar. The two storm erupted from the same large area of disturbance.

Timing of updates – 3:00 pm PKT (mid-day), 6:30 pm PKT (evening) and 9:00 pm PKT (night)

Update issued on May 16 at 11:00 pm PKT – LAST UPDATE

Tropical cyclone ‘Mahasen’ continues to lose intensity as it moves in a NE direction, it is not significant now. Cyclone ‘Mahasen’ brought rain to Indonesia, Thailand, Myanmar, Bangladesh, Sri Lanka and India. Following is the death toll from Mahasen;

• Indonesia – None
• Thailand – 1 person
• Mynamar – 8 people drowned on May 14
• Bangladesh – 14 people
• Sri Lanka – 7 people
• India – 9 people

In Sri Lanka, agencies urged the International and the local media to refrain from using ‘Mahasen’ as the name of a destructive storm, as Mahasen was a King of Sri Lanka who brought prosperity to the country. It is worth-mentioning that the Sri Lanka Meteorological Office suggested this name.

Update issued on May 16 at 5:44 pm PKT

12 die in Bangladesh due to torrential rains and strong winds of 60 mph. There are some unconfirmed reports that say that Burma has escaped the burnt of the storm while 50 injured.

Update issued on May 16 at 2:00 pm PKT

‘Mahasen makes landfall as a significant tropical storm!’

Tropical cyclone ‘Mahasen’ has made landfall as a moderate strength tropical storm, widespread severe heavy downpour with strong gusty winds (56 km/h – 90 km/h) might have occurred in the coast of Bangladesh and adjoining Indian and Burma coast including the Indian city of Kolkata. The storm has weakened now though there are more chances of scattered heavy downpour with strong gusty winds till 6 hours after that significant decrease in rain coverage. Following are the main features of the storm as of now;

• Movement: NE
• Winds: 50 mph (85 km/h)
• Pressure: 990 mbar
• Landfall: Crosses Bangladesh coast
• UNDER THREAT NOW: Bangladesh-Burma and Indian state of Assam 

‘Mahasen’ made landfall on May 16 morning as forecasted by PWP since May 13 (May 15 night/May 16  morning) though other websites and few models did say that Mahasen would make landfall on May 16 night, some even went far by saying that Mahasen would make landfall on May 17 morning however in the end the landfall happened as per the forecast of PWP.

Update issued on May 15 at 9:00 pm PKT

‘Mahasen approaching for landfall – Bangladesh awaits Severe heavy rainfall’

Tropical cyclone ‘Mahasen’ is quickly moving towards Bangladesh-Burma coast, it will start to weaken by May 15 night due to once again increase in vertical wind shear as it makes landfall over Bangladesh-Burma coast. Following are the main features of the storm as of now;

• Movement: NE
• Winds: 50 mph (85 km/h)
• Pressure: 990 mbar
• Landfall: Bangladesh-Burma coast (Tonight/May 16 morning)
• UNDER THREAT NOW: Bangladesh-Burma and Indian state of Assam

Showers with gusty winds expected in Orissa and West Bengal coast till one hour. After one hour widespread severe heavy downpour likely in Bangladesh, Indian state of Assam and adjoining coast of Burma with strong gusty winds (56 km/h till 85 km/h).

Update issued on May 15 at 3:00 pm PKT (Also for 6:00 pm)

Tropical cyclone ‘Mahasen’ intensified slightly as it is moving towards its final destination that is Burma-Bangladesh coast. Mahasen would start to weaken rapidly on May 15 mid-day/evening due to once again increase in vertical wind shear as it makes landfall over Bangladesh-Burma coast. Following are the main features of the storm as of now;

• Movement: NE
• Winds: 50 mph (80 km/h)
• Pressure: 990 mbar (dropped)
• Landfall: Bangladesh-Burma coast (May 15 night/May 16 morning)
• UNDER THREAT NOW: North-Eastern coast of India and Bangladesh

Heavy downpour with strong gusty winds (above 56 km/h) expected especially in north-eastern coast of Andhra Pradesh and coast of Orissa during the next six hours after that stormy conditions expected in West Bengal and Bangladesh. The storm is 700 km south-west of Chittagong, Bangladesh.

Update issued on May 14 at 9:00 pm PKT

Tropical cyclone ‘Mahasen’ has re-curved and it is quickly moving towards Bangladesh-Burma coast. In a NE direction it may intensify into a category-1 hurricane or even a low end category-2 hurricane as the sea temperatures are high while the wind shear is slightly low in that area. Mahasen would start to weaken rapidly on May 15 mid-day/evening due to once again increase in vertical wind shear as it makes landfall over Bangladesh-Burma coast. Following are the main features of the storm as of now;

• Movement: NE
• Winds: 50 mph (80 km/h)
• Pressure: 996 mbar
• Landfall: Bangladesh-Burma coast (May 15 night/May 16 morning)
• UNDER THREAT NOW: Eastern coast of India

Severe heavy downpour likely on Wednesday in Bangladesh and Burma with gale force winds. The storm has killed seven people in Sri Lanka.

Update issued on May 14 at 3:00 pm PKT (also for 6:00 PKT)

Tropical cyclone ‘Mahasen’ is just 400 km south-east of Indian city of Vishakhapatnam while 1140 km south-west of Chittagong. The system is under a area of moderate vertical wind shear as it is moving in northwards therefore Mahasen has weakened, it will move in this direction briefly  before taking a sharp re-curve in a NE track. Once it moves in a NE direction it may intensify into a category-1 hurricane or even a low end category-2 hurricane as the sea temperatures are high while the wind shear is slightly low in that area. Mahasen would start to weaken rapidly on May 15 mid-day/evening due to once again increase in vertical wind shear as it makes landfall over Bangladesh-Burma coast. Following are the main features of the storm as of now;

• Movement: N
• Winds: 50 mph (80 km/h)
• Pressure: 996 mbar
• Landfall: Bangladesh-Burma coast (May 15 night/May 16 morning)
• UNDER THREAT NOW: Eastern coast of India

Indian states of Orissa, coastal Andhra Pradesh and Tamil Nadi can get showers at time moderate with windy conditions (46 km/h to 56 km/h).

Update issued on May 13 at 6:00 pm PKT (also for 9:00 pm)

Tropical cyclone ‘Mahasen’ is just 700 km south-east of Indian city of Chennai while 1300 km south-south-west of Bangladeshi city of Chittagong during last few days it has moved in a WNW direction and due to the incoming westerlies, Mahasen is likely to curve in a Northwards direction briefly before taking a sharp re-curve in a NE track, at the moment the system is slowly moving in a NW direction almost stationary. Mahasen may intensify further into a category-1 hurricane or even a low end category-2 hurricane but the storm would accelerate after taking the NE track therefore the chances of intensification are low. Mahasen would start to weaken rapidly on May 15 mid-day/evening due to increase in vertical wind shear as it makes landfall over Bangladesh-Burma coast. Following are the main features of the storm as of now;

• Movement: NW
• Winds: 55 mph (88 km/h)
• Pressure: 996 mbar
• Landfall: Bangladesh-Burma coast (May 15 night/May 16 morning)
• UNDER THREAT NOW: Eastern coast of India

As of today, Showers have occurred in Chennai. Indian states of Orissa, coastal Andhra Pradesh and Tamil Nadi can get showers at time moderate with windy conditions (46 km/h to 56 km/h). Sri Lanka can experience frequent moderate rain with isolated heavy falls and strong winds (above 56 km/h) as the outer bands have gripped Sri Lanka.