“This is the third article related to the monsoon season of 2013 and it will be followed by many more articles”
The sub-continent is experiencing its first major heatwave of the season that is crucial for building up a normal monsoon season. It is worth noting that this year the western sub-continent was a under the grip of below normal temperatures due to the everlasting westerlies till April therefore it was feared that the region would miss out the heatwave but luckily it came on time and western Sub-continent heated up on the right time.
Wrath of heatwave brings life to standstill
The heatwave started from May 12 in the Sindh province of Pakistan as was predicted by PWP on May 8. The heatwave gripped entire Pakistan on May 15 and gradually intensified on May 16/May 17. This heatwave is expected to last till the end of May;
Hell-like heatwave in Pakistan
Every year before the monsoon season there is a heatwave but in the year 2011 and 2012, those heatwaves were isolated. 2013’s heatwave can be compared to the deadly and record-breaking heatwave of 2010 in which many areas of Pakistan’s Sindh and Balochistan experienced 53°C that heatwave took the lives of more than ten people in Pakistan. Following are the highest temperatures recorded in India and Pakistan during the heatwave;
- Islamabad: 41°C
- Lahore: 45°C
- Multan: 46°C
- Peshawar: 43°C
- Hyderabad: 45.5°C
- Nawabshah: 47°C
- Jacobabad: 50°C
- Larkana: 51°C
- Moen Jo Daro: 50°C
- Sukkur: 48°C
- Nagarparkar: 44°C
Never ending heatwave in India
- Bikaner: 47°C
- Nagpur: 46.5 °C
- Jasialmer: 46.3°C
- Ganganagar: 46°C
- Chandrapur: 45.5°C
Weak Western disturbance ’07’ would be passing through the extreme northern areas of Pakistan yet it would not be able to break the heat spell in India nor Pakistan. Precautions should be taken during this wave of high temperatures!
Monsoon marching westwards!
- Overall the conditions are good for the development of Monsoon at the moment
Monsoon has set over South Bay of Bengal and the Andaman sea on May 17 due to the formation of cyclone ‘Mahasen’ that helped the monsoon to advance in that sector as it resulted in cross-equilateral winds however the disadvantage of Mahasen was that it has delayed the onset of Monsoon over Kerala (most important place for the monsoon). Normally the monsoon advances into the Andaman sea on May 20 but this year it has been early. It is now being predicted that the giant winds would now set over Kerala on June 3, three days behind the normal schedule. The onset of Monsoon over Kerala signals the arrival of these giant winds over Sub-continent. Over the years the Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) forecasts the onset on monsoon over Kerala, which can be seen from the below data;
|Year||Actual Onset Date||Forecast Onset Date|
|2005||7th June||10th June|
|2006||26th May||30th May|
|2007||28th May||24th May|
|2008||31st May||29th May|
|2009||23rd May||26th May|
|2010||31st May||30th May|
|2011||29th May||1st June|
|2012||4th June||31st May|
Tropical Activity also gaining strength?
There might be some hamper in monsoon progress over the western coast of India due to the tropical activity in the Arabian sea (May 20 till May 23) as it could shift the moisture towards Oman and Yemen. Another low pressure area can form in the Bay of Bengal during the next few days which will give boost to the developing monsoon in the areas along Bay of Bengal. According to PWP, during the first week of June the western coast of India would see frequent formation of thunderstorms and there are slim chances of another tropical activity in the Arabian sea and therefore PWP believes that monsoon might set over Kerala earlier than June 3.
Temperature in the Bay of Bengal and the Arabian sea are around 28°C till 31°C. Northern areas of Pakistan can get monsoon rain during the first week of July while central areas can get monsoon rain during the first/second week while southern areas can get monsoon rain during the second/third week of July.
Our View on the upcoming season
Pakistan Weather Portal (PWP) issued it’s monsoon forecast of 2013 on May 6, which is stated below;
“Monsoon 2013 would set in early this year in India due to the formation of a low pressure in Bay of Bengal, overall it could be normal on the wider scale in Pakistan and India due to the neutral ENSO conditions in the Pacific ocean till October. Pakistan can get monsoon rains during the first week of July. Westerlies and Easterlies interaction could lead to heavy flooding rainfall over the rivers of Punjab and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, westerlies could increase their presence in late May and June. Rains could be normal in southern areas while near normal in northern areas. North-eastern Punjab and Azad Kashmir can witness some frequent heavy downpour in the month of July. Slight possibility of pre-monsoon activity in Sindh and North-eastern Punjab only. However an event of isolated flash flooding/urban flooding (happens every year in the country) can never be ruled out.”
Monsoon Special articles for 2013
You can read special monsoon article by Pakistan Weather Portal (PWP), here;
- Another Monsoon brewing for the same Sub-continent! – Part I
- Do we really need a monsoon season? – Part II
- Pakistan bakes in Oven: Bricks for Monsoon 2013 placed! – Part III
- Look back at Past: Pre-Monsoon rains are just around the corner? – Part IV
- Monsoon facing the biggest challenge from its own Ocean! – Part V
- Road map for ‘Monsoonistan’ laid: Rains move into Pakistan! – Part VI
TO BE CONTINUED….