Intense rains coming for North!
Weak Spell possible in south Punjab and Sindh
How long the monsoon will stay?
Pakistan has now entered it’s second last month of monsoon and in some years August proves to be the last month for monsoon in the country. The northern areas are getting close for their eighth monsoon spell which can bring intense rain to the upper parts. Parts of South Punjab and Sindh may witness isolated showers/rain during that period.
Factors – Present Conditions
*Western trough ’17′ is over the northern areas of the country.
*Low pressure over south Utter Pradesh.
*Upper air cyclonic circulation in the Bay of Bengal.
Other Factors – Effect on Monsoon
*La-Nina: National Committee to Study El Niño has confirmed the presence of the La Niña in Peru’s sea, eastern Pacific ocean, South America.
*Negative Indian Ocean Dipole: Temperatures have slightly cooled in the Bay of Bengal and adjoining Arabian sea. Sea water temperatures remains unchanged around eastern African coast as compared to the previous image of July 15.
Eighth Monsoon Spell starting soon
Eighth Monsoon spell following it’s predecessor, is also focused in northern Punjab, Azad Kashmir and adjoining Khyber Pakhtunkhwa however like fifth and sixth monsoon spell it can affect the central and southern parts as well though the intensity is different from the past spells. Following is the rainfall recorded on August 10;
- Islamabad got 134 mm.
- Rawalpindi got 109 mm.
Northern Areas – 100+ mm rain possible around Independence day!
“Alert: Scattered heavy downpour to isolated very heavy downpour likely in northern areas of Punjab, Azad Kashmir and adjoining few parts of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa on August 13/August 14”
Rain with thunder/lightning likely from August 12 (+1,-1 day error) in Islamabad, northern Punjab (Lahore, Rawalpindi, Murree city, Jhelum, Gujrat, Sialkot, Norwal, Sheikpura, Gujranwala, Attock, Mandi Bahauddin and few adjoining districts), Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (Abbottabad, Manshera, Haripur, Swabi, Swat, Peshawar, Landi Kotal, Hangu, Kohat, Khyber Agency, Khurram Agency and few adjoining districts) and Azad Kashmir (Muzaffarabad, Kotli, Mirpur, Rawalakot and few adjoining areas). Heavy to isolated very heavy downpour can occur in Islamabad, northern Punjab, Azad Kashmir (Kotli, Mirpur, Rawalakot) and few parts of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (Kohat, Kurram Agency, Khyber Agency, Orakazai Agency and few adjoining districts) on August 13/August 14. As per COLA model, rain is exceeding 75 mm to 100+ mm in the northern areas, supported by various other models including GFS US and GFS UK.
There are chances of rain with thunder/lightning in Faisalabad, Okara, Pak pattan, Sahiwal, South Waziristan, Dera Ismail Khan and few adjoining areas during this period (more chances from August 13). The Eighth monsoon spell can last till a week in the northern areas however it’s peak intensity is from August 13/August 14. Decrease in intensity can occur from August 16.
Central Areas: Weakened rain from north can move towards south Punjab
Eighth Monsoon spell as a weak spell can start affecting this area of Pakistan from August 14/August 15, chances of showers/rain with thunder/lightning in south Punjab (Bahawalnagar, Bahawalpur, Multan, Dera Ghazi Khan and few adjoining districts) as some thunderclouds can form over eastern and western parts of south Punjab. During this weekend, chances of drizzle/showers in western parts of south Punjab due to thunderstorm formation over north-eastern Balochistan. As per COLA model only, south Punjab is coming under 15 mm layer while few pockets are reaching 20 mm. GFS shows below 10 mm rain layer in parts of south Punjab
Frequent thunderstorm formation is being witnessed in various areas of Balochistan, under that influence rain with thunder/lightning likely in Khuzdar, Awaran, Panjgur, Barkhan, Dera Bugti, Musa Khel, Zhob, Qila Saifullah, Loralai, and few adjoining districts, chances of isolated heavy falls there.
South: Activity remains isolated
‘Karachi becomes hub of drizzle/showers again’
Mostly dry weather with passing clouds (increase during evening/night) is expected in most parts of Sindh. Coastal areas especially Karachi can remain under the influence of drizzle/showers. Around August 14/August 15, there are chances of showers/rain with thunder/lightning in Karachi, Thatta, Jamshoro, Dadu, Nawabshah, Larkana, Badin, Sanghar, Khairpur, Sukkur and few adjoining districts. Slight possibility in Tharparkar and Mirpur Khas district. As per COLA model, mentioned areas of Sindh remain around 10 mm layer while other areas of Sindh are under 5 mm to traces layer. As per GFS, western Sindh including Karachi are coming under 5 mm layer.
The coastal district of Lasbella, Balochistan has good chances of rain (10 mm to 20 mm) during this period.
Ninth Monsoon spell coming?
GFS and COLA shows another monsoon spell starting right after the eighth monsoon spell weakens in the northern areas. New developments by numerical model shows monsoon activity weakening significantly from Pakistan in September, possible withdrawal. Long range models shows one to two western disturbances affecting northern areas in September, nothing meaningful for central and southern areas.
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