Pakistan Weather Update & Monsoon and cyclone Alert ( May 31 – June 4)

This is a “live cyclone coverage” that started from May 24 and will end on June 13. From June 13, normal articles of Pakistan Weather Portal (PWP) will resume.

  • More Western winds for Punjab

  • Turbat sizzles at 50°C again

  • Pre-Monsoon activty in Karachi continues

  • Chances of depression in the Arabian sea still persists  

Pakistan Weather Background

Storm to hit Gujarat according to BBC weather

*A weak western disturbance would affect Northern Pakistan.

*Heat wave to persist in parts of Balochistan and Sindh.

*Tropical cyclone “Keila” may affect lower Sindh.

Western disturbance and Northern Pakistan

A weak westerly wave will approach Pakistan on May 31 and leave for India on June 3. Under its influence light to moderate rainfall with strong gusty winds likely. Lahore, Islamabad, Peshawar and adjoining areas all expected to get rains during this period. No major weather expected other than that, but Pakistan Weather Portal will keep an eye on these dust storms which are deadly in this month of year especially in Punjab. Following is the rain forecast from Pakistan Weather Portal (PWP) for some cities;

  • In Lahore, Lahoris will have a cloudy start to the new month, light rainfall will occur on June 1 and during the evening it will become moderate with strong winds. Rain will continue till June 2.
  • In Islamabad, the capital will have thunder showers with strong winds will start from May 31 and continue till June 2.
  • In Peshawar,  light rainfall with occasional gaps till June 2.
  • In Multan, some rainfall with stray thunder till June 2.

Overall these rains will continue till June 3 and after that they will start entering Kashmir, India.

Heat wave and southern Pakistan

Temperatures during first week of June

The seasonal heating continues in Pakistan especially in Sindh where temperatures are above 47 °C. Temperatures have touched 50°C in Turbat while 49°C in Sibbi, Balochistan on May 31.

During the coming days temperatures will decrease in Punjab, Khyber, north-east Balochistan due to westerly wave. But this time these western winds will not cause temperatures to decrease in Sindh and temperatures are expected to rise there.

Tropical depression ARB 01  – Scenario still holds

The expected storm is likely to make landfall in Balcohistan as of May 31

As of May 31, a low pressure should have formed in the Arabian sea but still an Upper air cyclonic circulations persist that are expected to enhance monsoon activity over western India especially Kerala, where heavy to very heavy monsoon showers likely. There are two things that could happen to this system;

  1. Most model do not forecast the upper air cyclonic circulation in the Arabian sea near western Indian coast to intensify. If that’s the case then these circulations will fizzle out near Goa and Mumbai but could cause some heavy rainfall there.
  2.  Few suggest it will intensify into a low pressure and then into a depression at least if not a cyclonic storm. If that is the case then it’s either Oman or Pakistan or India.

Pakistan Weather Portal (PWP) will issue news alert, breaking news and updates if a depression threatens Pak coast.

And Karachi?

Pre-monsoon clouds will keep entering Karachi during the next few days, fast winds are also likely, No major weather conditions likely.

Monsoon Update 2011

  • Monsoon arrives in India early

  • Heavy rainfall likely in many parts of India

India

Thunder towers are visible indicating that storm is gainig energy as of May 31

The southwest monsoon, which arrived in Kerala on May 30, has advanced to some more parts to the south of Bay of Bengal, remaining parts of Andaman Sea and parts of east central Bay of Bengal.

 Widespread monsoon rainfall would occur over Lakshadweep and Kerala till June 3. Fairly widespread rain over the Northeastern States. Scattered rain would occur over Konkan, Goa, north interior Karnataka, Tamil Nadu, Rayalaseema and rest of east India. It will be isolated over the rest of Maharashtra, Andhra Pradesh and central India.

Pakistan

No monsoon low pressure is in sight that could bring pre-monsoon rainfall in Sindh and Karachi, though its too early for such things to happen in May but they will start from July.

There should be some monsoon depressions in the Bay of Bengal that needs to travel from India to Sindh, but this year Bay of Bengal is unusually not producing any depression it should have given birth to a cyclone uptill now. 98% monsoon rainfall of Karachi are from Bay of Bengal while 2% from Arabian sea.

You decide!

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147 thoughts on “Pakistan Weather Update & Monsoon and cyclone Alert ( May 31 – June 4)

  1. I am not saying anything but After seeing GFS and BBC Maps there is NO chance of rains over karachi and sindh. There is a chance of downpour over Trivandrum to Jamnagar and Muscat to Gwadar.

    • Still GFS is showing some heavy rain in karachi cause the track of this system is identical to that of last years cyclone PHET according to GFS it will first touch the north-eastern tip of oman with much strong force but will weaken a bit coming to pakistan coastline … but forecasts will keep on changing day by day

  2. so we should come to a conclusion or not that there will be no rainfall in karachi this june and as a result it will be dry hot and windy??????
    secondly a more clear picture about the cyclone keila will be on 3rd of june??? as per told am i right???

  3. Low pressure over Sindh will move to Oman by this weekend and will tug the depression towards Oman. Let see

  4. Still There is no low pressure develop hope the well marked low pressure will developd then depression after that will cyclone

  5. @EVERY BODY
    Now the low will form on June 3 not June 1…intensification into a depression can not be ruled out..There is haze and dust over sky of Karachi with some clouds that seems as if it a cloudy day..fast winds could occur late in Khi..

  6. now this low pressure which you are saying that will form into a depression so now what are the chances of heavy rains over karachi
    secondly fast winds humid conditions never the less dry too are not a sign of a heavy downpours in karachi
    kindly comment on that

  7. I think in BBC map the system is coming near Mumbai and it’s taking a slight curve towards Oman. GFS maps are also showing the same thing.

  8. according to bbc chart , it looks like its taking a turn from gujarat , may hit oman or pakistan , hope it hits pakistan 😀

    • hmmmm so what does that mean babar bhai???
      this will be due to the activity in the arabian sea???

      • The system will reach coastal Gujarat…any weather system over Gujarat or over its coast..does cause winds to change to East in Sindh..the thing that needs to be watched is when the storm goes to coastal Gujarat..will it move towards Pakistan or move towards Oman..that is some thing that is hard to predict..

  9. low pressure will form on 3.rain starts from this system from 4 in maharashtra till 6 then 7 and 8 in gujrat. and then if its become depression it will rain in sind including karachi on 9 and 10 otherwise it will finish on 8 in sea.

  10. STORM WATCH FOR ARABIAN SEA IS NOW OFFICIAL

    The Climate Prediction Centre (CPC) of the US National Weather Services has put the Arabian Sea under watch for tropical storm formation early next week.

    On Wednesday, the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) has joined the Taiwanese Central Weather Bureau (CWB) and the Roundy-Albany model in the cyclone watch in the Arabian Sea.

    Formation of the offshore trough coupled with an existing upper air cyclonic circulation over southeast Arabian Sea and strengthening monsoonal flows complete the evolving ecosystem for the initiation of the tropical storm.

    Setting the overall background is the broad band of convection (process of cloud-building) ordained by a weather-setting Madden-Julian Oscillation wave in the upper levels that has locked into position over the region.

    But the storm-watching models differ in their interpretation of the likely track the system would take in the Arabian Sea due mainly because of uncertain dynamics arising from an intervening western disturbance.

    While the ECMWF is signalling a westerly track from north Arabian Sea towards Oman, the Roundy-Albany model takes the system to the Mumbai-Gujarat coast and further east-northeast into northwest India.

    The CWB sees the system taking a swipe at the southwest Gujarat coast before barrelling in towards a landfall over adjoining south Pakistan coast.

    But a fully matured monsoon system will also have churned up the Bay of Bengal in time to spin up a monsoon ‘low’/depression and lobbed it into mainland across the Andhra Pradesh-Orissa coast.

    The Arabian Sea storm is not seen as interfering with the progress of the matured monsoon, and the strong flows will have brought the rains racing into east india and central india by this time.

  11. I want to buy weather station for my plant any suggestion for good and cheep locally available weather station will appreciated .

    Thanks

  12. Forecast for the Possible Cyclone Formation –

    As mentioned in the previous few weather updates, forecast models continue to indicate the formation of a Strong Low Pressure in the Arabian Sea in the first week of June.
    GFS,UKMET models agree formation of a Brief Low pressure ( Might be a Cyclone) in Arabian Sea

    The persisting area of convection between 75E-80E,5N-15N and having cloud top temperature of -60C,50-100 mb/hr 850mb Vorticity over a 28-30C SST( Sea Surface Temp) and gripped by a 30kt+ Low level convergence ( LLC) is likely to advance further as the low is expected to intensify in a 30kt divergent outflow aloft. There has been a remarkable improvement in the region of convection is past 24hrs as depicted by the increased favorable thermodynamic states of cyclogenesis as well as the the lower convergence and upper divergence. The Total Precipitable Water ( PW) in the area of convection has also increased upto 60mm as the atmosphere circulates due to the presence of a low pressure area aloft in North Western Arabian Sea.

    Wind shears don’t look a problem for cyclogenesis.

  13. An area of thunderstorms is being watched officially by tropical cyclone agencies for potential for development into a tropical storm. The investigation area has been named 98A. The system is facing difficulty from disruptive wind shear. However, so far it has been able to show improvements.

  14. wunderground is showing temprature increase for karachi to a whopping 42 °C. with Heat Index of 46 °C by thursday and wind direction changing from wednesday night from east with overcast conditions which it seems would be due to close proximity of low pressure/depression … lets see

  15. @EVERY BODY
    1.western winds are leaving Pakistan during the next 24 hours..
    2. There are chances of Strong winds of 40 mph in Karachi, Badin, Thatta, Mirpur Khas, Hyderabad from June 8 due to the closeness of a very strong well-low pressure near Gujarat, at that time the storm will either start entering Pakistan or start moving towards Oman but it will re-curve back to the sea only to dissipate..
    3. Jamnagar, Gujarat, a city near coastal Sindh expected to get heavy rainfall from June 7 with 44 mph winds sea to be rough from June 7..

  16. Are there chances that the system in Arabian Sea could intensify into a Cyclone?

    If Yes/No is there any chance that it will come to Karachi?

    • lol , dude mumbai get rain for 3 months cause of the monsoon , for the next 3 months bbc will show heavy rain over mumbai

  17. CNN is forecasting thunder showers on june 11 in karachi as well as other parts of sindh. the same prediction is of yahoo tooo

  18. GFS showing cyclone will turn to Oman . light rain in Karachi on 10th and 11th.

    Metro what did you say?

  19. Potential Low pressure area, Arabian sea ..”98A” .. Update #1
    Present location :: 13.7 N and 70.1 E
    Pressure :: 1010 mb
    Wind speed :: 25 KmpH

    Expected to move North and pull South West Monsoon winds along with it in another 2 days (By India)

  20. chances for cyclone to go to oman are one in the million , GFS shows that it will make landfall in pak or india

  21. in karachi today was very humid and boring weather. pray for system to come close to karachi so we can get some return after this heat.

    • The system will not come even close to Karachi.. As you can see in the Satellite Imagery from Pakmet’s Website that the system which was forming is now dispersing in the Arabian Sea, it is not intensifying further, therefore, it will not strike anywhere and will be demolished in the mid air… 🙂

      I have been keeping a track on timely Satellite Image.. Yesterday it was intensifying, now it is dispersing..

  22. there is nothing in arabian sea just circulation which goes on maharashtra and disipate heavy rain in goa and mumbai and some in gujrat thats it. no rain in sindh thats for shore till 10

    • The weather in karachi has suddenly changed … for the last 2 days humidity is unbearable and we can see hazy conditions and the wind has down down a bit the heavy moving clouds have vanished … we get to see these conditions when a weather system is about to enter sindh or its about to rain here

      • that is true ZaKa..do u remember when cyclone Yemyin was about to enter Sindh on June 23, 2007…temperatures rose to 44.4 C on that day..late that day, 200 people died due to 70 mph winds and heavy rainfall..

  23. The weather in karachi has suddenly changed … for the last 2 days humidity is unbearable and we can see hazy conditions and the wind has down down a bit the heavy moving clouds have vanished … we get to see these conditions when a weather system is about to enter sindh or its about to rain here …

  24. bbc weather is now showing that thudery rain in karachi on Sunday….i think its not possible…but karachi weather is change suddenly and very hot and hazy sky…

  25. the storm is far from taking shape anytime soon , the rains predicted by 2nd week of june are cuz of wind flags changed totally last night and winds are now flowing directly from south south east , they might just spawn a supercell above sindh in coming days … lets c =p

  26. oh the bbc forecast is just bogus , its just bcuz pakmet updated their precipitation chart for karachi showing .8mm of rain on saturday 😛 … TBH .8mm of rains is more then enough considering the current weather in karachi , ppl are melting like ice cream :/

  27. the weather of karachi has suddenly changed to sunny to Cloudy with high humidy and the wind is barely blowing :O

  28. These kinds of clouds cannot give us rains. There are some clouds because It is rains on other indian provinces. Almost all forecaster are showing sunny forecast for karachi. GFS has showed much rains over Oman to gwadar and indian provinces during some days but not over karachi.

  29. right now, The clouds over Karachi are dark grey cirrus clouds which can change to nimbus or cumulonimbus.

  30. right now, the clouds over Karachi are dark grey Cirrus clouds and they can change to nimbus or cumulonimbus clouds

    • Go to pakmet website and see the satellite image u can clearly see a large chunk of thunderstorm cloud present over karachi and and its north

  31. According to Latest BBC forecast Cyclone or depression is presents and will be presents over Trivandrum to Mumbai specially b/w Goa To Mumbai

  32. as you are saying that low pressure will form in Arabian sea, will it come to Karachi? secondly what is the point where it will form.

    • I did say that it MIGHT drizzle…but thunder was reported….the thunderstorm is over Karachi and Hyderabad…not significant…should dissipate without giving rain..cloudy weather cloud occur..these are weak and dry thunderstorm….eye now on UACC..

      • gfs is shwing tat it will make landfall over oman but on its way it will give rain to karachi

  33. #Karachi Metro

    As you are saying that low pressure will form in Arabian Sea, will it be able to produce rains in Karachi?

  34. @karachi metro

    yeah you’re right when i saw the clouds coming, i wished that it would drizzle a little so that the haze and dust could clear out :p

  35. guyzzz just we need prayers at this time pray as much as you can for rains in karachi itzz really unbearable heat humid conditions these days in karachi

  36. BBC forecasting a thundery shower in karachi on sunday hope it is accurate but not any other website showing such forecast i just cant understand on which data they are just giving this forecast 😦
    secondly if MSN predicts something then there are 90% chances of rain or thunder storm in karachi lets hope for the best my fingers are crossed

  37. that was just a weak cell , i said earlier the change in wind directions will spawn supercells above sindh that might cause some thunder rains here in karachi , this was one the examples u can say … was very weak might have caused drizzling in few areas and that it =p

  38. The previous low which was in central Arabian has died and replaced by a low in sea near Mumbai!As of today morning,A convective system has formed few kilometers west of Mumbai in the Arabian sea which is the initial stage of cyclone keila.Metd weather shall issue an alert today for affected areas.All Forecast models Re-confirming that the Arabian Sea Low pressure ( Future Cyclone Keila) shall pull away the moisture as the Cyclone is expected to hit Oman by 11 or 12th June as per 12z GFS.

  39. Congratulations to PWP on its super fast growth. An all time high viewership in May only shows its growing popularity.
    Good weather blogs are rare and few in our regions. PWP has filled the gap !Keep it up !

  40. 1 week ago which you were saying that karachi may have thundry rains from june 4 to 7 and Now uune 4 and today weather is very sunny over karachi.

  41. 1 week ago which you were saying that karachi may have thundry rains from june 4 to 7 and Now june 4 and today weather is very sunny over karachi.

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