Pakistan Weather Update & Monsoon and cyclone alert (June 4 – June 10)

This is a “live cyclone coverage” that started from May 24 and will end on June 13. From June 13, normal articles of Pakistan Weather Portal (PWP) will resume.

  • Hot and dry weather in Pakistan

  • Karachi sizzles at 40°C

  •  UAC gaining strength

Background

*Continental air prevails all over the country and is likely to prevail during the next few days.

*No western disturbance approaching Northern Pakistan during the next few days.

*Heat wave to grip almost all Pakistan during this week.

*Expected storm in the Arabian sea not likely to threaten Pakistan.

The heat wave – More load shedding!

The heat wave will grip many parts of the country. Heat wave will persist for some days in the country. Following are the expected temperatures in the some cities of Pakistan;

  • Karachi to see 36°C – 38 °C all this week. 
  • Lahore to sizzle at 47 °C on June 8.
  • Islamabad to witness 42 °C on June 10.
  • Peshawar to see 41 °C on June 9.
  • Multan to sizzle at 48 °C on June 7.
  • Nawabshah to sizzle at 49 °C on June 6.
  • Larkana could see 50 °C on June 7.

Tropical depression ARB 01 – Gaining strength now!

The latest expected track of depression ARB 01 or Cyclone keila

A week ago, the Upper Air Cyclonic circulations were forecasted to form intensify into a cyclone or a tropical depression on June 2 and move towards Gujarat and adjoining Sindh coast but that was delayed. The new forecast is that a low pressure will form on June 4 or June 5.

A low pressure is forecasted to either form on June 4 (tonight) or June 5 (morning), if that does not happen then chances will further reduce of a tropical depression formation, but latest forecast look good.

If a low pressure form and intensify into a well-marked low pressure and then a depression (depression could also intensify into a cyclone too during the period) then these tracks it might follow;

  1. According to BBC, the expected storm moves North west then west but later moves back to make landfall between Mumbai and Goa in India. It is worth mentioning that BBC is not changing this forecast since May 26. track similar to cyclone Phyan 2009.
  2. According to the GFS, the expected storm will move a towards the Maharashtra-Gujarat- coastal areas and from there it will start moving towards Oman.
  3. Other forecast is that, the storm will move towards Sindh-Gujarat coastline and then enter Rajasthan, a track followed by 1999 cyclone and 1998 cyclone and 1992 cyclone.
  4. Another is that, it will move from Sindh-Gujarat coast to Oman.
  5. Another, considering the sub-continent only is that the storm will hit Oman and then recurve to Balochistan but it will move towards south Punjab instead coastal Sindh as a remnant, somewhat similar path to cyclone Phet 2010.
  6. Possibility of Gonu-like track also persist.

These tracks and intensity will keep on changing day by day even if a cyclone forms, as cyclones are hard to predict. But if it forms then the changes will be small.

Oman – First Gonu, then Phet, now Keila??

Very heavy rainfall to extremely heavy rainfall likely in Oman especially the capital Muscat where more than 100 mm rainfall is likely with strong wind storms of 50 mph from June 9.

Gwadar- memories of Phet or Gonu??

Heavy rainfall likely in the sea port city of Balochistan, Pakistan. Rain could reach above 70 mm with winds up to 45 mph or greater from June 9.

Karachi dumped again!

The area of thunderstorm is gaining strength as of June 4

No major rainfall likely in Karachi as storm will be far away from Sindh. But moderate showers with fast to strong winds could occur due to the developement of some thunderstorms near Sindh due to the tropical depression from June 7.

These all are forecast as of June 4, could change in the days to come.

If the storm threatens Pakistanis coastline especially Sindh then Pakistan Weather Portal (PWP) will give updates, breaking news and news alert.

Monsoon update 2011

  • Monsoon reaching Western India in 24 hours

  • Mumbai all set for Monsoon

  • No monsoon rainfall in Pakistan yet

India

Monsoon has further advanced into many parts of India. Under its influence some very heavy isolated heavy rainfalls are lashing India including Kerala.

Monsoon to reach Mumbai quickly

Bombay is all set for monsoon as pre-monsoon showers has been lashing the city since the last few days. During the next 2 to 3 days, monsoon will force its entering into Mumbai and the monsoon rains will begin, indicating an early arrival this year. The cities of Pune and Mumbai are expected to be covered by the monsoon in the next 48 to 72 hours.

Some southern parts of Gujarat are also expected to be got monsoon rainfall from June 6. Gujarat did see pre-monsoon rainfall on June 3, when the capital Ahmedabad was lashed by scattered showers of 14 mm that flooded some areas of the city, Jamnagar, coastal city of Gujarat also saw its first pre-monsoon showers on that day.

Pakistan

No pre-monsoon rainfall activity likely in any part of Pakistan during many days of June. But one or two showers could occur in parts of south-eastern Sindh inlcluding Badin, Mirpur Khas, Umerkot, Thatta and Karachi if the expected low pressure moves to a little towards southern Gujarat. Heavy rainfall is likely in western coastal Balochistan but it is not a monsoon region.

What is your forecast??

Pakistan Weather Portal (PWP) wants to know what do you think now.

 

(UPDATE 9:50 AM PST JUNE 6)

Formation of a tropical depression in the Arabian sea during the next 24 hours is fair. The system has started moving north west wards, sea temperatures are high and wind shear is very low. As of now a strong weather system is near Mumbai. The Indian Meteorological Department has updated the system to a low pressure. During the next 24 hours the low pressure could intensify into a well marked low pressure then a depression.

(UPDATE 6:30 PM PST JUNE 6)

The low pressure that formed today ( June 6) has intensified into a well-marked low pressure and likely to intensify further into a depression during the next 24 hours. The well-marked low is still present near Western Indian coast and is likely to move in a NW direction. Stay tune

(UPDATE 4:00 PM PST JUNE 7)

The low pressure that was gaining strength in the Arabian sea on June 6 has now weakened on June 7, its sea level pressure has increased from 1003 MB to 1006 MB. Though sea temperatures (29°C to 30°C) are highly favourable for a developement of a depression. But during the next 24 hours, either the low pressure will dissipate or it will gain strength again to become more well-marked and then further intensification will take place. The storm has also moved WNW than yesterday’s NW direction.

(Update 5:00 PM PST JUNE 7) – follow the new article!

In the continuation of Update 4 pm, the low pressure has intensified into a well-marked low pressure again. In next 24 hours to 48 hours, it may reach depression status. The low pressure could also reach deep depression to cyclonic storm “Keila” status on June 9 to June 10. Government advises all the fishermen of Balochistan and Sindh especially of Sindh to return to land before June 10.

As per latest forecast, the GFS and BBC predict a depression in the Arabian sea. GFS shows a strong cyclone will pass through Pakistan coastal areas to Iran as a weak depression. Under this influence, heavy to very heavy rainfall with stormy winds likely all over the coast especially Sindh coast from June 10 to June 13. These all are forecast could change in matter of minutes.

PWP will start the Special coverage of cyclone Keila, if a depression forms on any day.

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182 thoughts on “Pakistan Weather Update & Monsoon and cyclone alert (June 4 – June 10)

  1. #karachi metro

    please tell that what i the latest news now?? how many percent chances are there that there will be rain in karachi??

  2. One more thing, are there still any chances that the system will be dissipated before striking any where?

    • read “Update 5 PM” on the article is latest ..and not changing..tonight or tomorrow..more info..as per latest forecast the system will be at its peak intensity near Sindh..and start losing while going to Balochitsan..will reach Iran as low pressure..these forecast could change..

    • as per latest forecast…not likely to attain category 1 or greater…it shall intensify from depression to deep depression to tropical storm Keila (cyclonic storm keila)…as i said eariler this could change…weather is some thing that is very hard to predict 100%…we can only predict 85%… no technology is there is the world that gives 100% correct forecast..

      • karachi guys need very very n very heavy rain,karachi metro is there any chance of that?????

  3. we are planning for a trip to hawks bay on thursday 9th of june.Can the trip be regarded as safe on thursday or shall we postpone the plans for later days to come.

  4. #KarachiMetro

    The system, which has formed in Arabian Sea, can this be intensified into A Category Cyclone? If Yes, can it re-curve to Karachi?

    Your replies are really helpful.

    Thanks!

  5. @ everyone :

    the system will not intensify in to a Hurricane category , reason karachi have long range shallow waters range which is very bad for a hurricane fueling itself we’ve seen this example last year in cyclone PHET , when it descends from CAT-3 to TD within 36hours , rite now the system have developed a former structure and is likely to develop EYE-WALL by thursday hopefully , 20% chance that it just might jump to CAT-1 not more then that IF it continues to the current predicted path

    as for rain climax will be sat-sun , very heavy rainfalls expected and i would like to advise everyone pls be safe . human can never trust the clouds … we all know the dangers very well when rains hit karachi… be safe and have fun =P

  6. i am not seeing any rain in karachi . some clouds come for raining but u will see after long cloudy some drizzle occur in karachi . there is no heavy rain chance in karachi

  7. what’s the latest? is it true that it is targeting Iran right now and not Oman?
    what’s the current classification? low pressure or well marked low pressure?

    • no..it is following the same track as forecasted by GFS….it has moved away from Indian coast…where in 12 to 24 it shall become a depression…then again it will start moving towards gujarat coast then to SIndh where it will reach its peak intensity (cyclone keila)…then it will move to Makran coast..where it will hit Gwadar..then enter iran as a dissipating low pressure…these are latest forecast could change in a mattter of minutes…

  8. Karachi meteo, You are saying that whether it hit gwadar or iran or gujrat but It cannot hit karachi. Secondly, You are not saying surely that karachi will get heavy rains

    • No…it is gaining strength BUT slowly…any one would be a naive ..if he says that these are rumours…its all ready a well-marked low…thats a storm!!..the JTWC is monitoring the storm, IMD, PMD…all pakistani media has eye on this storm..that can be seen through satellite as well…THESE ARE NO RUMOURS!!

  9. CNN, YAHOO and weather city these all websites showing heavy rain forecast for karachi starting from sat onwards till monday 🙂

  10. #KarachiMetro,

    Isn’t the system now dissipating? Please check the satellite imagery from Pakmet’s website, There color image was showing a really strong system in the afternoon at around 12:30, but now, in the latest image, you can see that the system is not as intense as it was before, in the afternoon image…

    So what is this?? Is the system dissipating now?

  11. bbc is now showing that cyclone will hit to gujrat and then its will become a low intensity or convert into low pressure

  12. dont rely on the predictiobs of bbc,yesterday bbc was showing thundery showers in khi,but u had seen the weather today.

  13. I think we must pray for some good showers, Karachi Metro could you please tell us that when rain is expected in Karachi is it expected on Friday or Saturday ???

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