Pakistan Weather Update & Monsoon and cyclone alert (June 4 – June 10)

This is a “live cyclone coverage” that started from May 24 and will end on June 13. From June 13, normal articles of Pakistan Weather Portal (PWP) will resume.

  • Hot and dry weather in Pakistan

  • Karachi sizzles at 40°C

  •  UAC gaining strength

Background

*Continental air prevails all over the country and is likely to prevail during the next few days.

*No western disturbance approaching Northern Pakistan during the next few days.

*Heat wave to grip almost all Pakistan during this week.

*Expected storm in the Arabian sea not likely to threaten Pakistan.

The heat wave – More load shedding!

The heat wave will grip many parts of the country. Heat wave will persist for some days in the country. Following are the expected temperatures in the some cities of Pakistan;

  • Karachi to see 36°C – 38 °C all this week. 
  • Lahore to sizzle at 47 °C on June 8.
  • Islamabad to witness 42 °C on June 10.
  • Peshawar to see 41 °C on June 9.
  • Multan to sizzle at 48 °C on June 7.
  • Nawabshah to sizzle at 49 °C on June 6.
  • Larkana could see 50 °C on June 7.

Tropical depression ARB 01 – Gaining strength now!

The latest expected track of depression ARB 01 or Cyclone keila

A week ago, the Upper Air Cyclonic circulations were forecasted to form intensify into a cyclone or a tropical depression on June 2 and move towards Gujarat and adjoining Sindh coast but that was delayed. The new forecast is that a low pressure will form on June 4 or June 5.

A low pressure is forecasted to either form on June 4 (tonight) or June 5 (morning), if that does not happen then chances will further reduce of a tropical depression formation, but latest forecast look good.

If a low pressure form and intensify into a well-marked low pressure and then a depression (depression could also intensify into a cyclone too during the period) then these tracks it might follow;

  1. According to BBC, the expected storm moves North west then west but later moves back to make landfall between Mumbai and Goa in India. It is worth mentioning that BBC is not changing this forecast since May 26. track similar to cyclone Phyan 2009.
  2. According to the GFS, the expected storm will move a towards the Maharashtra-Gujarat- coastal areas and from there it will start moving towards Oman.
  3. Other forecast is that, the storm will move towards Sindh-Gujarat coastline and then enter Rajasthan, a track followed by 1999 cyclone and 1998 cyclone and 1992 cyclone.
  4. Another is that, it will move from Sindh-Gujarat coast to Oman.
  5. Another, considering the sub-continent only is that the storm will hit Oman and then recurve to Balochistan but it will move towards south Punjab instead coastal Sindh as a remnant, somewhat similar path to cyclone Phet 2010.
  6. Possibility of Gonu-like track also persist.

These tracks and intensity will keep on changing day by day even if a cyclone forms, as cyclones are hard to predict. But if it forms then the changes will be small.

Oman – First Gonu, then Phet, now Keila??

Very heavy rainfall to extremely heavy rainfall likely in Oman especially the capital Muscat where more than 100 mm rainfall is likely with strong wind storms of 50 mph from June 9.

Gwadar- memories of Phet or Gonu??

Heavy rainfall likely in the sea port city of Balochistan, Pakistan. Rain could reach above 70 mm with winds up to 45 mph or greater from June 9.

Karachi dumped again!

The area of thunderstorm is gaining strength as of June 4

No major rainfall likely in Karachi as storm will be far away from Sindh. But moderate showers with fast to strong winds could occur due to the developement of some thunderstorms near Sindh due to the tropical depression from June 7.

These all are forecast as of June 4, could change in the days to come.

If the storm threatens Pakistanis coastline especially Sindh then Pakistan Weather Portal (PWP) will give updates, breaking news and news alert.

Monsoon update 2011

  • Monsoon reaching Western India in 24 hours

  • Mumbai all set for Monsoon

  • No monsoon rainfall in Pakistan yet

India

Monsoon has further advanced into many parts of India. Under its influence some very heavy isolated heavy rainfalls are lashing India including Kerala.

Monsoon to reach Mumbai quickly

Bombay is all set for monsoon as pre-monsoon showers has been lashing the city since the last few days. During the next 2 to 3 days, monsoon will force its entering into Mumbai and the monsoon rains will begin, indicating an early arrival this year. The cities of Pune and Mumbai are expected to be covered by the monsoon in the next 48 to 72 hours.

Some southern parts of Gujarat are also expected to be got monsoon rainfall from June 6. Gujarat did see pre-monsoon rainfall on June 3, when the capital Ahmedabad was lashed by scattered showers of 14 mm that flooded some areas of the city, Jamnagar, coastal city of Gujarat also saw its first pre-monsoon showers on that day.

Pakistan

No pre-monsoon rainfall activity likely in any part of Pakistan during many days of June. But one or two showers could occur in parts of south-eastern Sindh inlcluding Badin, Mirpur Khas, Umerkot, Thatta and Karachi if the expected low pressure moves to a little towards southern Gujarat. Heavy rainfall is likely in western coastal Balochistan but it is not a monsoon region.

What is your forecast??

Pakistan Weather Portal (PWP) wants to know what do you think now.

 

(UPDATE 9:50 AM PST JUNE 6)

Formation of a tropical depression in the Arabian sea during the next 24 hours is fair. The system has started moving north west wards, sea temperatures are high and wind shear is very low. As of now a strong weather system is near Mumbai. The Indian Meteorological Department has updated the system to a low pressure. During the next 24 hours the low pressure could intensify into a well marked low pressure then a depression.

(UPDATE 6:30 PM PST JUNE 6)

The low pressure that formed today ( June 6) has intensified into a well-marked low pressure and likely to intensify further into a depression during the next 24 hours. The well-marked low is still present near Western Indian coast and is likely to move in a NW direction. Stay tune

(UPDATE 4:00 PM PST JUNE 7)

The low pressure that was gaining strength in the Arabian sea on June 6 has now weakened on June 7, its sea level pressure has increased from 1003 MB to 1006 MB. Though sea temperatures (29°C to 30°C) are highly favourable for a developement of a depression. But during the next 24 hours, either the low pressure will dissipate or it will gain strength again to become more well-marked and then further intensification will take place. The storm has also moved WNW than yesterday’s NW direction.

(Update 5:00 PM PST JUNE 7) – follow the new article!

In the continuation of Update 4 pm, the low pressure has intensified into a well-marked low pressure again. In next 24 hours to 48 hours, it may reach depression status. The low pressure could also reach deep depression to cyclonic storm “Keila” status on June 9 to June 10. Government advises all the fishermen of Balochistan and Sindh especially of Sindh to return to land before June 10.

As per latest forecast, the GFS and BBC predict a depression in the Arabian sea. GFS shows a strong cyclone will pass through Pakistan coastal areas to Iran as a weak depression. Under this influence, heavy to very heavy rainfall with stormy winds likely all over the coast especially Sindh coast from June 10 to June 13. These all are forecast could change in matter of minutes.

PWP will start the Special coverage of cyclone Keila, if a depression forms on any day.

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182 thoughts on “Pakistan Weather Update & Monsoon and cyclone alert (June 4 – June 10)

  1. i request all the active readers of this blog to pray pray and jxt pray for heavy downpours in karachi

  2. @karachi metro , we cant say anything , weather is changing again and again , it can hit karachi also , who knew that cyclone phet would hit oman , no one , everyone said that it will hit karachi , so keep a hold on your forecast , the storm cant be trusted it can change it’s direction also !!

  3. Majority Of cyclones truned to Oman or Gujrat If cyclone goes to oman then balochistan will effect by the storm first turn in to Depression or deep depression

  4. just wait and watch , the storm haven’t took birth in real so tracks are just assumptions … who ever predict weather for karachi cant be totally trusted atm …

    • Its a rare event I would say…that needs some study…mostly cyclones in the arabian sea hit India or Pakistan but since last few years..Oman is getting more tropical disturbance than Pakistan and Western India…It is also worth mentioning that Bay of Bengal which is very active than Arabian sea…is getting weaker year by year and arabian sea is getting more active…as per latest forecast a depression will hit Oman..

  5. CNN predicting a thunder shower on 14th of june hope it happens well for today i will for sure say that it is a very very very hot day:( in karachi even though the temperature is not in forties mark but the rel feel is like above 45C hopefully storm will come to karachi just pray pray and pray

    • During May and June, the region receives tropical storms and this is the first season of the storms. Once they form, that doesn’t mean that it could affect Oman; on the other hand, it could go to any neighbouring countries.

  6. accuweather and cnn predicting thuder showers on 13 and 14 respectively lets cee what happens

  7. @Demon
    the system is continously moving northwards since the few hours..
    @Arbab
    do not trust accuweather, not a good website…there are chances of few spotty drizzle from week end
    @HARIS
    yes they are…
    @EVERY BODY
    heavy rainfall likely in all western coastal areas…as per latest forecast…the eastern coast to get drizzle..

  8. chances of rains are likely to fadeway soon , RAII pilot project showing less then 2mm of rains in karachi that is keep on changing in declining trend … 😛

  9. A good news after a pretty long time now the GFS is showing the system to move towards karachi instead of oman and inshALLAH it will move towards karachi GFS is showing very heavy rain in and around karachi not only that but its also showing rainy days at times pretty heavy till june 20th …at present the low pressure which is present near mumbai coast has moved north north-east against expected track of northwest and its showing signs of gaining some power chances are getting pretty much high for a good round of rains in karachi 😀 lets hope and please pray hard that karachi gets much needed heavy showers … this heat and humidity is becoming unbearable 😦

    • But somethings are Unfavorable for karachi:

      1) Nobody is showing rainy forecast for karachi like Punjab,nwfp and kashmir for next week.
      2) 99% People and forecasters believes that it will hit Like always Mumbai to Jamnagar and then Oman to Gwadar.Nobody is saying that it can hit karachi even by mistake.

  10. i see some proper measured droplets might fall by coming friday , lets hope for the best , all i want is just rains and not the cyclone itself everyone knows karachi is no where near able to defend such force of nature!

  11. This system is still present in indian costs,The Low pressure might converts into cyclone first let him near to pakistan

  12. Todays Models Showing the system will approaching costs of pakistan next day model again will change their prediction means we can get this system easily 🙂

  13. DUE TO THE FAVORABLE
    UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT AND INCREASE IN CENTRAL CONVECTION, THE
    POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
    WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.
    By Joint Typhoon Centre

  14. Joint Typhoon Warning Center is mentioning it as ABIO10 (Indian Ocean). Lets hope for the good rains in Karachi.

  15. THE AREA OF CONVECTION LOCATED NEAR 10.5N 98.5W IS
    APPROXIMATELY 385 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF ACAPULCO, MEXICO is HIGH. THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 17.5N
    72.1E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 18.4N 72.1E, APPROXIMATELY 55 NM
    SOUTHWEST OF MUMBAI, INDIA is MEDIUM

  16. Another very informative and interesting alert from PWP! I have stopped watching the local weather alerts on news since I subscribed to your post!

    My days of working at the Gadani Ship Breaking Yards as Safety and Security consultant I saw many deaths and injuries occur during the Monsoon season.. All due to lack of safety awareness.

    Thanks for another great post!

    N Khan
    Founder | Chief Consultant
    AfterShock-CEM
    Karachi, Pakistan

  17. Metro Team.

    Plz let me know that is there any possibility of some good showers in karachi on coming wdnesday or thursday i.e. 8 & 9 June 2011 respectively or is there any chance that the cyclone hit karachi ?

  18. #KarachiMetro

    Is there still any chance that Cyclone will form? If yes, then can it come to Karachi, and where it will form?

    Thanks!

  19. Cyclone may form withitn next 24 hours and no danger for sindh from this cyclone, rain thunderstorm might possible in sindh costal areas

    By GeoNews

  20. A low pressure area has formed over eastcentral Arabian Sea and neighbourhood and associated upper air cyclonic circulation extends upto mid tropospheric levels. The system is likely to become more marked”
    INDIAN MET DEPARTMENT June 6, 2011

  21. metro team plz tel me when will rain start in karachi????we are praying for rain,n hope the eye of cyclone 2 hit karachi

  22. Now BBC map farecast is showing that the cyclone/depression will come very close to Gujrat on friday night and from saturday it will start moving towards Karachi.

  23. BBC is meh! almost every web including pakmet’s prep charts showing rains in karachi by friday and heavy on sat-sun , BBC is showing SUNNY on sat … WTF?!?!?!

  24. Don’t depend on any sites. It keeps on changing several times a day. We have to wait for a “CYCLONE” to form .

  25. as karachi metro said next 24 or 36 hours r vry impotant for the formation of cyclone.so we have 2 to for that,n keep praying for karachi rain,karachi metro can u tell us that is their any chance of rain on 8 to 11 june???????

  26. @EVERY BODY
    low has weakened now..should gain strength in 24 hours again..if not then it will fizzle out…as per latest forecast strong cyclone will pass through karachi to hit Iran as a depression…Very heavy rainfall with strong windstorms…in karachi to Gwadar but especially the Sindh coast..this forecast can change again…low MUST gain strength in 24 hours now…or else..this morning winds were coming from East and were bit dusty…good sign!!

  27. i was also already told on 6 june that cyclone will hit to iran not oman on 13 june monday…goooood 4 karachian…..inshallah we will enjoy on this weekend….

  28. any update Metro Team plz… regarding cyclone and rain in karachi does it form into a depression now or still a low ?

  29. the system is going away from india and getting strength means possiblity of cyclone in few days and it may hit our coasts

  30. in pakmet advisory it is clearly notified that the depression will trun into cyclone (thursday/friday)when it will reach pakistan, and even rain begains from friday it is very diffcult to identify they categary of cyclone.

    • @Demon
      Phet was a weak tropical depression when it was near Karachi..this system could be like Yemyin in 2007…Yemyin killed 200 people in Karachi when 70 mph winds with heavy rainfall lashed the city..It was a tropical storm…

      • @MYTH
        precautions should be taken….if the government says no visit to the beach then all karachiites should obey that…this could be much stronger when phet came to Pakistan…In short, we people can make it less detructive or we can make it highly destructive…

  31. Breaking news : low pressure is gaining strength and likely to become a cyxlone on thrsday night ….

    From friday to monday strong thunder storms rains predicted in sindh and balochistan . :))))

    • this is the stages;
      low pressure
      wellmarked low
      depression (this was when phet came to pak)
      deep depression
      tropical storm (at this stage they are given name)
      category 1
      category 2
      category 3
      category 4
      category 5 and above

    • latest forecast ist that…the system will be at peak intensity near Pakistan coast and from here it will hit Iran as a depression or low pressure…Oman is now not the target…

  32. thanks Karachi metro for keeping us aware of new developments regarding upcoming weather situations and for instant replies too.. may Allah bless you and your team.

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