Pakistan Weather Update & Monsoon alert (June 21 – June 30)

  • Winds likely to increase their intensity in Karachi

  • Heat wave to return to Lower Pakistan

  • Longest day of the year

  • Monsoon to hit South Punjab in few days

Heat wave: Punjab cool downs – Sindh and Balochistan sweats

Sibbi remains the hottest city in the country for quite some time as temperatures remained 47 °C in the city. Overall the temperatures will decrease in all the rainy areas of the country. While a heat wave is likely to enter the southern parts of Pakistan that will remain till the end of June. 

Longest day of the year –  No affect on weather!

The longest day of the year - June 21

The longest day of the year, known as summer solstice in technical parlance, falls on June 21 each year.

It has no change on weather patterns as weather continues to behave normally.While some consider the summer solstice as the beginning of summer, many actually regard it as midsummer, though the definition varies between different regions and cultures

So when will it start in Karachi?  As the day begins at 5.42 am PST and ends at 7.25 pm PST. The longest day will last for 13 hrs and 43 min in Karachi. Following is the longest day of other cities;

  • 14 hrs & 29 min in Islamabad, also the longest in Pakistan.
  • 14 hrs & 17 min in Lahore. 
  • 14 hrs & 31 min in Peshawar.
  • 14 hrs & 16 min in Quetta.

Other cities will also have same timing with little variations.

More monsoon rains – Yes or No??

The answer is yes, more pre-monsoon showers likely but will be light in intensity. Same areas and provinces are expected to get rainfall with the addition of South Punjab and next will be upper Sindh, but upper Sindh will get first pre-monsoon rainfall on June 29 or June 30. Dusty winds will prevail in Karachi and coastal Sindh, chances of drizzle will increase  from June 24 till June 26 due to presence of the remnants of deep depression BOB 02 over Northern Gujarat.

While coastal Sindh, which last year and in 2009 got an early onset on monsoon rainfall than any other part of the country, will remian cloudy and dry. But strong winds likely in this part of Pakistan, these winds might be dusty.

The year 2004, there was no monsoon rainfall in Karachi, only in the month of October due to cyclone Onil that too was 35.5 mm. While in 2005, same conditions persisted in Karachi, rains only occurred in August and September. In the year 2008, monsoon hit Karachi on July 28 and after that there was only one light rainfall in August otherwise the monsoon of 2008 remained cloudy and dry. Will 2011 have same fate for Karachi? tell Pakistan Weather Portal (PWP) now; 

Monsoon update 2011 

India

  • Depression over India persists!

  • Rains reaching Rajasthan!

  • Monsoon reaching Delhi in few days!

The Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) has issued their second long-range forecast for India which also states about the onset of monsoon over India.

“This year, setting in of southwest monsoon over Andaman Sea was delayed by about 10 days. However, it set over Kerala 3 days before its normal date of 1st June. Monsoon set in over most parts of South Arabian Sea, Kerala, some parts of Tamil Nadu, south Bay of Bengal and South Andaman Sea on 29th May 2011. Due to strengthening of cross-equatorial flow over Arabian Sea and the northward movement of a vortex in the form of an upper air cyclonic circulation along the trough off the west coast, monsoon further advanced rapidly and covered entire Kerala, Tamil Nadu and Goa, most parts of Karnataka and some parts of south Andhra Pradesh by 5th June. However, during 6th – 10th June, there was a short hiatus in the further advance of monsoon along the west coast. On the other hand, the eastern branch of monsoon advanced over some more parts of Bay of Bengal and northeastern states, with a delay of nearly 5 days. By 13th June, associated with the formation of a Depression over north Bay of Bengal, the monsoon advanced into some more parts of Arabian Sea, parts of Saurashtra and most parts of the Bay of Bengal and parts of coastal Andhra Pradesh and coastal Orissa. On 15th June, monsoon further advanced over some more parts of Maharashtra, most parts of Telangana and Orissa, remaining parts of coastal Andhra Pradesh, Bay of Bengal, West Bengal and some parts of Chhattisgarh, Jharkhand and Bihar.”

 Overall the monsoon rains have covered many parts of India due to the deep depression BOB 02 that formed on June 16. Under its influence heavy to very heavy rainfall likely over Madya Pradesh and adjoining provinces of India. While the final resting places of BOB 02 will be North-eastern Gujarat and adjoining Rajasthan, where light to moderate rainfall with isolated heavy rainfall is likely from June 22 till June 24.

Pakistan and Pre-monsoon madness

“It’s a very Punjab-friendly monsoon this year.”

First pre-monsoon: Sargodha is the wettest!

The map of monsoon 2011

The first pre-monsoon rainfall of Pakistan occurred on June 18, much early than expected, that caused the overall high temperatures  in North-eastern Punjab, parts of Khyber, Azad Kashimr, FATA and Giglit to decrease. A weak western dusturbance interacted with the Arabian sea’s moisture that caused the first pre-monsoon showers in those areas. Parts of Khyber, Balochistan, Gilgit and FATA are not a monsoon region, they also got good rainfall due to the presence of western disturbance. Following are the quantity of rainfall recorded during the first pre-monsoon activity;

  • Sargodha got 142 mm from June 18 till June 21. (highest in Pakistan)
  • Lahore got 106 mm from June 17 till June 19.
  • Islamabad got 100 mm from June 18 till June 20.

Other parts of Punjab had below 50 mm rainfall, while the quantity was much less in Khyber and Azad Kashmir. This spell of pre-monsoon is over now. But the intensity will be weak as the Arabian sea moisture will not get any support from western disturbance. Sindh remained under the grip of heat wave while lower Sindh remained under clouds especially coastal parts.

Second pre monsoon

The second spell is likely from tonight, it will be weak in intensity due to lack of intense moisture from Arabian sea and western disturbance. Drizzle to light rain expected in the same provinces and regions.

While in Sindh, the remnants of deep depression BOB 02 that will be over North-eastern Gujarat on June 22 might cause cloudy weather with light drizzle from June 23. This forecast is also for Karachi.

Third and last pre-monsoon

The storm has weakened but has not dissipated

The last pre-monsoon rainfall is likely from June 28 till June 30, heavy rainfall with strong winds likely in Punjab, parts of Khyber and Azad Kashmir. Monsoon is likely to hit Southern Punjab as well during this period. For Sindh?  

Well, as southern Punjab is expected to get moderate to heavy rainfall from June 28 so some thunderstorms might pop up over upper Sindh including Sukkur. But these thunderstorms will be weak and stray, might cause light rainfall.

As for lower Sindh including Karachi, no rainfall expected as per latest forecast but the intensity of winds is likely to increase from fast (32km/h) to strong (44km/h) to very strong (56 km/h).

After that, the monsoon will begin. Monsoon may hit Karachi after July 15, while Punjab, parts of Khyber and Azad Kashmir may get monsoon rainfalls from first week of July.

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215 thoughts on “Pakistan Weather Update & Monsoon alert (June 21 – June 30)

  1. The Australian Bureau of Meteorology (BoM) has said in its forecast outlook that the Indian monsoon would launch itself on a second spell during the next seven days after a successful run in June.

    This would come about as a wet phase of the weather-setting Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) wave gets generated in the western Indian Ocean.

    DRY PHASE

    The periodic MJO wave, one of whose alternating dry phases is on view as of now, transits from west to the east over Indian Ocean with profound influence over ground-level weather especially during monsoon onsets and fresh intra-seasonal spells.

    The BoM review said that over the past week or two, the MJO wave has remained mostly weak in the western Pacific, although some notable events have eventuated. In the wake of the current MJO, the northwest Pacific has observed the formation of three tropical cyclones (Sarika, Haima and Meari) within the past fortnight. Concurrent to that, the Indian monsoon underwent a ‘break’ period, especially in central and southern India, where thunderstorm activity was well below normal.

    Over the next week, climate models surveyed suggest that an MJO event is likely to develop in the western Indian Ocean.

    FRESH SPELL

    “With this development, we would likely see a reinvigoration of the Indian monsoon and a decrease in tropical cyclone activity in the Philippines Sea,” the BoM said.

    Meanwhile, central and adjoining peninsular India continued to witness largely uneventful days even as widespread to fairly widespread rains lashed parts of the west coast and northwest and northeast India, an India Meteorological Department (IMD) update said on Tuesday.

    Satellite imagery showed convective clouds rising over parts of Punjab, Uttar Pradesh, Madhya Pradesh, Vidarbha, north and southeast Bay of Bengal and north Andaman Sea.

    Productive interaction between monsoon easterlies rushing along the land-based trough across northwest to southeast India and opposing winds from a western disturbance brought more rains over the region.

    WEATHER WARNING

    A warning valid for the next two days said that isolated heavy rainfall would occur over Uttar Pradesh, Madhya Pradesh, Bihar, Jharkhand, sub-Himalayan West Bengal, Sikkim, Assam and Meghalaya.

    Satellite cloud imagery showed the presence of rain-bearing clouds over parts of Punjab, Uttar Pradesh, Madhya Pradesh, Vidarbha, north and southeast Bay of Bengal and north Andaman Sea.

    The northern limit of monsoon had not progressed overnight from the Porbandar, Ahmedabad, Udaipur, Ajmer, Pilani and Ganganagar alignment.

    The IMD assessed conditions as favourable for further advance of monsoon over some more parts of Rajasthan and Gujarat during next three days.

      • its means that weather might be unsettled during the end of second week of July…. In the past too, many websites show thunderstorms in the end of their forecast for karachi but they never come true/ some times they come true… but we Karachiites should atleast till July 6… however many long-range weather forecast websites are not showing rainfall for karachi even after mid-July…

  2. bbc is showing light rain shower on thursday and saturday.how can u say this so confidentally that there will be no rain in karachi this monsoon season?do u have any proof?

  3. when will monsoon hit karachi can anyone tell exactly the date ? ?? ? ?
    because we have now wait toooo much and now this is unbearable 😦

    • when you will die , can u tell me the exact date ? 😛 … try to get my point ur answer lies in my question! …

    • we cant forecast a powerful weather i.e monsoon living amongst us for century , as for weather forecasting all humans can do is with 70% accuracy and thats it , rest 30% is upto ALLAH and as per ur question of exact date we humans still cant provide exact day for breakout even if we achieve 95% accuracy if it would be scene ppl in US would never die cuz of tornado’s all we can say is hoga , kab hoga ? we cant… dear!

    • Haris he meant that no one can tell the exact date that when will monsoon begin in karachi, you’re asking the exact date, LoL, no one knows the exact date dear.

  4. DEAR ALL MONSOON 2011 IS NOW IN “BREAK MONSOON” CONDITION ITS TROUGH IS RUNNING ALONG THE HIMALYA’S FOOTHILLS . THE WET MJO PHASE IS EXPECTED TO START FROM 4TH OR 5TH JULY SO THE LOW PRESSURE IS ALSO EXPECTED IN BAY AFTER 5TH OF JULY .THEN IT EXPECTED TO TRAVELL WITH SOUTH WESTWARD TRACK AND PULL MONSOON INTO GUJRAT AND GREATER SINDH . IN JULY ATLEAST TWO DEPRESSION IS FORM IN BAY OF BENGAL AND SINDH INCLUDING KARACHI GET 2 TO 3 GOOD SPELL OF RAIN . THE WET MJO PHASE IS EXPECTED TO END BY 25TH OF JULY .

  5. this low pressure is not as much heavy as it should be …….
    aate aate maira naam sa reh gaya
    khi tak phanchte pohanchte kuch nhe bache ga sub khatam hojaega ):

  6. tomorrow very heavy rainfall in karachi. clouds will come from east follow bbc map and my previous comment.

  7. FROM PAST EVENTS;
    On June 30, 2007, heavy rainfall (45mm) with strong winds (60 mph) occurred in Karachi at about 3:30 pm…. the sky was pitch black in the NE and clouds were very low lying and moving extremely fast…. the rainfall was caused due to the remnants of deep depression from BOB….

    • some moisture will reach Sindh after July 8… chances of isolated thunder showers likely from July 9 or July 10…. but long-range forecast changes atleast 3 times in a day….PWP will monitor the low that MAY form in the next 6 days…

    • Aap Islamabad aur punjab walo kay yahan to roz barish hoti hai phir bhe barish ka ask kartay ho? Agar app log karachi mein hotay to app ka kya haal hota jahan na winter mein barish hoti hai aur na monsoon mein? Karachi walay barish kay liyay har saal tarastay hai aur aap logo kay to mazay hai jo pura saal barish hoti hai. Aap punjab walay allah ka shukar ada karo jo pura saal barish hoti hai. Ek saal karachi mein rehkar dekho phir wapis islamabad jakar allah ka shukar ada karogay.

    • hahaha! i can’t stop laughing on this

      tomorrow very heavy rainfall in karachi. clouds will come from east follow bbc map and my previous comment.
      1
      1

      Rate This

      By: muhammad faisal on June 30, 2011
      at 2:34 pm

      wat BBC map bhaie ? ur BBC map isn’t showing shit … u r making a clown out yourself…

    • tomorrow very heavy rainfall in karachi. clouds will come from east follow bbc map and my previous comment.
      1
      1

      Rate This

      By: muhammad faisal on June 30, 2011
      at 2:34 pm

    • dooor dooor tak koie rains nahi hia larkana mai , and no one in this world can give a an exact date for rains , asking these kinda questions is useless…

  8. follow bbc and my past comments. jackie you will see how accurate i am. heavy rain in karachi today.

  9. Dear Muhammed Faisal,
    Your forecast for today was accurate 🙂 very heavy rainfall occoured on you
    Following are the parts which got heavy rain:

    1) Faisal’s head got 100 mm of rain
    2) Faisal’s face got 80 mm of rain
    3) Faisal’s body got 50 mm of rain
    4) Faisal’s Legs got 10 mm of rain

    Wow!:) Faisal U got total of 240 mm of rain…

    Thumbs up Faisal ;D for a heavy to very heavy rainfall on you 😀

  10. hahahahahaha…….
    I think faisal has soaked completely, may be his monitor shows dark color where karachi situated on so called “BBC MAP” and he think thick clouds are coming towards karachi. Faisal all you have to need change your monitor as soon as you can.
    @ JACKIE…
    LOL,, I am afraid of rain caused by the cloud coming from east, the rain still going on and chances of FLUSH FLOODING although COMMODE already been flooded completly 🙂 🙂

    • @KM

      Dear Baber bhai is it a right news as Muhammad Zohair is saying…

      “hey guys a very strong system going to reach sindh ,karachi ready to get wet after 6th july……………….”

      Please reply us fast…

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