Pakistan Weather Update & Monsoon alert (July 8 – July 15)

Karachi awaits monsoon 

Heat wave relaxes again!

36 people dead – Deaths occurred till July 6! 

Background

Upper parts of Pakistan, mostly Punjab and eastern Khyber are being continue to witness enhanced monsoon rainfall due to the interaction between western trough and monsoon current. Heavy rainfalls have occurred in Lahore, Islamabad, Faisalabad and other Upper parts of Pakistan since June 25, after a brief dry and hot period, second spell has once again started in those same areas. The heat conditions have relaxed down due to monsoon winds and cloudy cover.

Temperatures till July 15 – Outlook!

Temperature forecast: July 8 - July 15

Heat wave has decreased in many parts of Pakistan especially the hot spots like upper Sindh due to the monsoon activity in Punjab, Kashmir and Khyber. Temperatures will remain comfortable for the people of upper Sindh as they have experienced temperatures till 50°C. Following is the expected temperature in Sindh;

  • 41 °C to 43 °C in Sukkur.
  • 41 °C to 43 °C also in Larkana.
  • 40 °C to 42 °C in Nawabshah.
  • 37 °C to 40 °C in Hyderabad.
  • 32 °C to 34 °C in Karachi.
Temperatures did rise in Sindh due to the break of monsoon by 1°C to 2°C but due to the second spell of monsoon in Punjab and Khyber the temperatures have once again decreased in these cities of Sindh. Partly/mostly cloudy with windy conditions is also decreasing the temperatures.
Due to the rainy activity in Punjab and Khyber, all the cities of these provinces will remain cool. Following is the temperature of some cities of Punjab and Khyber;
  • 34 °C to 39 °C in Lahore.
  • 33 °C to 38 °C in Islamabad.
  • 38 °C to 41°C in Multan.
  • 41 °C to 45°C in Faisalabad.
  • 37 °C to 41 °C in Peshawar.
Temperatures will rise in Punjab and Khyber as second monsoon spell will end in 2 to 3 days.

Weather-related incident!

36 people have died since June 25 in Pakistan till July 6 due to weather related incidents. The deaths occurred due to heat waves, monsoon rainfall and river floodings. The death toll may rise as mature monsoon stage is yet to come to Pakistan. Pakistanis should take precautions during any severe weather event.

Monsoon update 2011 for Pakistan

Rain, rain and rain in Upper Pakistan!

Third spell in Pakistan?

Low might form in Bay!

At least 4 monsoon weather system formed;

  1. A depression ARB 01 formed during early June, that caused no rainfall in Pakistani territory.
  2. A deep depression BOB 02 formed in the Bay of Bengal during mid-June that brought monsoon currents to Punjab. It created the first monsoon spell of 2011.
  3. A low pressure formed over Madya Pradesh that caused an isolated thunderstorms to form over North-eastern Punjab.
  4. A low pressure formed over Bay of Bengal, that brought second spell of monsoon to Punjab.

Second spell of monsoon in Punjab

Precipitation forecast: July 8 - July 15

Scattered light to moderate rainfall with isolated heavy rainfall likely in Islamabad and Punjab including Lahore, Faisalabad. While scattered light rainfall with isolated moderate rainfall in eastern Khyber including Peshawar. South Punjab, that is Multan city will also get rainfall. Western trough has also enhanced this activity over these areas. This spell will continue till 2 to 3 days, after that a break will follow and once again another third spell will occur in these same areas.

In Karachi, partly cloudy to mostly cloudy skies likely till 2 to 3 days, drizzle may also occur during this period. Winds will be between 32 kph to 40 kph in Karachi. According to some models and numerical forecast, isolated monsoon rainfall may occur in Upper Sindh including Sukkur during 2 to 3 days, according to these models, monsoon may advance into upper parts of Sindh, after some break of monsoon it is expected that monsoon will eye Karachi and coastal Sindh, but that is just being expected as of now. However, it is yet to advance into south-eastern and coastal Sindh. Pakistan Weather Portal (PWP) has forecasted in May that monsoon will hit Karachi around July 15 , decrease or increase in days can not be ruled out!

Whats next! – probably third spell?

People of Indian-subcontinent, that follow weather, have eye over Bay of Bengal once again. Another low pressure might form in the Bay of Bengal that would enhance the monsoon activity over Indian-sub continent. The low might form in 4 to 5 days, it might bring third monsoon spell to Upper parts of Pakistan. So keep your umberalla ready Punjab and Khyber!

Poll of the week

Pakistan Weather Portal (PWP) wants to know your thoughts;

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113 thoughts on “Pakistan Weather Update & Monsoon alert (July 8 – July 15)

  1. pakmet updated prepcast 6.1mm now in following days … dont expect proper rains before the actual season kick in …

  2. Karachi metro .. i want to ask that larkana mei rain fall expected hah kunke aj thunderstorm and lighting bi horai hah abi is waqt rat ko larkana so tell ne further rains in larkana

  3. ^ its not the rite time , see monsoon start in upper sindh early then coastal areas and this is wat happening , normal monsoon is going on … KM u agree dont you? … we shall see good rain by 3rf week of july …

  4. INSHALLAH… but we can pray for early rain… and yup its raining CATS AND DOGS :P:P:P….. i saw on aaaj news …. sakkar main mohsladaar barish

  5. aaahhhh karachi ka itna acha mousam ho raha hai…..no sun just clouds 🙂 where did these clouds come from anyways????

  6. This year karachi is not going to see any good rainfall Even there is no guarantee that next year karachi will get rains. Punjab,nwfp and kashmir are getting downpours almost daily

  7. BBC map does not show any rain in karachi, BBC forecasts are not trustworthy but their maps are.. But south-eastern and upper sindh is experiencing cloudy activity during nights for couple of days, so rain chances are very slim but can not be ruledout completly.

  8. @KM
    Plz let us know that as the satellite image of PMD showing that the clouds are covering sindh, do you think it might be some moderate showers in karachi tonight or tomorrow ? its seems like i think …..

  9. @Jackie
    Yes I agree with you…
    @Shoaib
    You are asking the same thing over and over again..I have told you though…
    @Qwais
    Thunder showers can not occur in Karachi tonight…drizzle may occur
    @Shahjee
    those are weak clouds…that have already lost their mositure…
    @Danish
    drizzle/light rainfall “could” occur till 48 hours…
    @Zulfi
    I think its clear..that BBC forecasts are wrong..their map is good…but there forecast is not accurate..
    @Wasi
    when there is a strong weather system over Gujarat-Sindh border..
    @Sam
    drizzle could occur…

  10. One thing is sure that because of western disturbance karachi weather is hot and dry whole year. Western disturbance during whole winter gives rains to whole pakistan except karachi and sindh and during monsoon its interaction with easterly also give daily flooding downpours to punjab,nwfp and kashmir specailly lahore to islamabad. Karachi does not get any good rainfall in winter and thats why it will never get daily heavy downpours during monsoon like punjab,nwfp and kashmir? Even there is no name of rains over karachi this monsoon. During winter to monsoon and whole year karachi has only sunshine and hot weather and responsible is western disturbance.

  11. i wonder why you guys conclude things before they even start ? ;/ … tell me is their any expert here who can really understand the met data ?

  12. @shoaib
    Western disturbance only effects western provinces n sindh is an eastern provinces……i don’t know tht’s what i think n y r u saying tht karachi won’t get any good rainfall? Monsoon will start in khi after 15 july so wait until thn n we still have august n september…. Wait for a while ppl

  13. Yaar Allah Say Dua kero Karachi maen Bhe barish ho jaye gee….

    [audio src="http://emobilez.com/islam/Masnoon-Duain/barish-ke-liye.mp3" /]

    No BBC and no other forecast is correct only Allah knows the best when will it rain in Karachi. InsAllah Soon.

    Fahad

    • Dear Zohair,

      It will be better if you give us any link or when it is coming here ?? i think it is not identified by any met dept so how you say it is coming ??

  14. BBC map is showing that monsoon currents increasing their intensity over western indian coast and in BOB from thursday.

  15. Yaar Tell me one thing !! Ke SINDH province Bay Of Bengal ke Raining System pe kyun apni predictions depend karta hah ? I still did not understand that ? and what will happen if strng Low pressure formed in Bob ! SINDH ke near to nai na Bob itni door hah yahan se to yahan koi farak nai parega LOw presure se ! NO RAIN IN KARACHI NO RAIN IN SINDH! If we depends on Bob !

    • Same question here, Karachi should get rains directly from Arabian sea like Mumbai and from western disturbance and like Lahore. BOB is too far and it usually die out while or before reaching karachi.

  16. @shahjee

    The source is my observation, i just saw pakmet’s satellite image and i think that a low is forming in BOB.

    • @DeMoN I was expecting this sort of reply.

      @KM do you also thinks that this is due to satellite malfunctioning?

  17. @Danish
    problem with the website of accu…some uploading problems…
    @Aqib
    its immature to go in such a depth right now..considering that it has not even formed yet…
    @Danish Raza
    There is no other source of rain in Sindh…that is why we depend upon BOB…for cyclones we depend on ARB…

  18. @km..
    pakmet said that this weather system will make its way towards upper parts of pakistan under its influence punjab, GB, KPK and few areas of upper sindh get rains.

  19. I don’t think ke is year karachi me monsoon rains hongi,because ye new weather system which is forming in BOB, ye bhi upper parts mein jaega….previous yeal 5th july se monsoon rains start hogai thin, and this year no monsoon rain in karachi, love islamabad,hate karachi!

  20. A strong emerging weather system in the bay of bengal expected to bring heavy rains for northern states of India, strong monsoon currents will likely to penetrate in upper part of pakistan, but very unfortunately a typhoon will develop in pacific ocean which will cause to cut the moisture of that weather system which will present over central india at that time, due to this typhone we will again miss the rains 😦 😦

  21. @jakie…
    Most of the weather models are showing typhone in pacific and strong low in BOB, but the formation of typhone follow by low in BOB. It observed that Whenever typhone forms in pacific the moisture from BOB moves towards it and there is a break in subcontinent.
    http://weathergaines.blogspot.com/p/ecmwf-model-forecasttc-forecast.html
    you can see map given in the above link, but its my observation that there will be no rain from the low in BOB(if typhone forms in paicfic)..
    @KM correct me if i am wrong

    • well….it depends upon the direction of typhoon…and prevailing wind conditions and other meteorological factors…..what you are saying is also right…while some typhoon in W pacific increase monsoon activity (that depends upon direction)…while some enter BOB and become once again cyclone…eg Cyclone Bhola, Cyclone Jal, and many more…

  22. Karachi Metro !!! Tell me that New Fresh Low Pressure which formed in BOB so it can Reach to SINDH and make heavy rain falls in Upper Sindh? SUKKUR AND LARKANA DIVISION

  23. Yaar the scenario is very saddening uptill now for karachi 😦 sadly not a single drop of rain in karachi and i think not any significant rain in near future i hope i am wrong 100%… but we need rain badly here as this pathetic weather has made life real bore …. infact we are not even seeing the usual cloud cover which karachi has during monsoon in place of that sunlight and mugginess for the past 1 week … guys pray for rain

  24. There was no rain forecast for the whole Country during previous 24hrs..But how the Hell (Low Rain occoured in Karachi????
    it was not a drizzle it was and it is a low rain ….
    Babar Bhai any Supporting argument? 🙂

    • thats the beauty of monsoon 😛 … it’ll simply spawn a rain band out of no where and then downpours 😛

    • well…its not surprising..during monsoon season (June till late August in Karachi)…..the level of moisture incursion increases…that is why drizzle to moderate drizzle could occur due to formation of a weak nimbostratus clouds…if a drizzle happens tonight..it will not be surprising…this is called isolated development which are too small to be detected by any model…
      @EVERY BODY
      5 drizzles have occurred since June 1 in Karachi….all of them are traces…
      1.1 june
      2.14 june
      3. 22 june
      4. 3 july
      5. 13 july

  25. rain on Monday on BBC gfs very near.
    where as Gujarat and upper areas received -60% rain of their normal monsoon

  26. babar bhai the 2nd week is almost starting and still no chances of monsoon rains in karachi???????????

  27. clouds came from the arabian sea and it gave rain 10 mins ago enough to make the roads wet and the weather pleasant 😀

  28. i guess this means tht monsoon has finally started in khi….btw did anyone hear tht thunder or was it just my imagination :/

  29. In karachi we ocassionaly see rains but downpour of bullets happens more oftenly :p
    Now i want to see rains(of water drops).

  30. when will karachi get monsoon??? any Chances??? The direction of clouds is not Changing,,which changes due to monsoon…………… ut still cloudy Weather…. i am waiting 4 rain for about tgree weeks…… i want to see some real thunder rain with winds………….

  31. 1st weather system will bring good rain in karachi. which is reaching on 24 july. inshallah this time we will enjoy monsoon rain.

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