Pakistan Weather Update & Monsoon alert (July 21 – July 28)

Time for waiting is over now!

Waiting game is over for Karachi!

Heat wave takes 4 lives in Sindh – death toll rises to 40

Background

This week had been a little quiet in terms of  monsoon showers as no weather system has approached any part of the country, most weather system are dieing before entering Pakistan except for monsoon moisture which has been interacting with western troughs to enhance monsoon activity. Temperatures had increased in the country as forecasted by PWP. High humidity has also rised. Overall these are some things that have been observed during this week. Whats ahead?

Temperature – outlook

Temperature: July 21 till July 28

Overall the temperatures will be high in almost all parts of the country except Karachi and coastal Sindh due to fast winds. In parts of Upper Sindh and southern Punjab temperatures will hover around 45°C till next 2 to 3 days, then a decrease is expected. In Punjab and Khyber too, temperatures will decrease in next 2 to 3 days. Following is the expected temperature forecast (Forecast valid till 3 days), after that a decrease is very likely;

  • 43 °C to 45 °C in Sukkur.
  • 39 °C to 44 °C also in Larkana.
  • 43 °C to 44 °C in Nawabshah.
  • 38 °C to 40 °C in Hyderabad.
  • 31 °C to 35 °C in Karachi. (Not likely to change)
  • 42 °C to 45 °C in Lahore.
  • 38 °C to 40 °C in Islamabad.
  • 40 °C to 44°C in Multan.
  • 40 °C to 44°C in Faisalabad.
  • 38 °C to 40 °C in Peshawar.

People of upper Sindh and southern Punjab should take precautions till 2 to 3 days and avoid unnecessary outdoor activities, as on July 20, at least 4 people were killed in Jamshoro, Sindh due to intense heat waves. The death toll has now reached 40 in Pakistan, all these deaths were weather-related from heat wave to rainstorms to floods since June 25.

Monsoon update 2011

Much awaited rains are here!!

Low pressure over Madya Pradesh

Pakistan to be covered with monsoon!

India

The soul of monsoon is unusually very quiet that is Bay of Bengal. The Bay usually produces low pressures or depressions that enhance monsoon activity but so far it is failed to do so. While the Arabian sea is doing all it could to keep monsoon alive, strong cross-equatorial flows over Arabian sea that along with trough from Maharashtra coast to Kerala coast, is bring heavy to very heavy rainfall to this part of India. But others are not so lucky.

Pakistan

Monsoon had covered Punjab, Khyber, Kashmir, North-eastern Balochistan and upper Sindh except for south-eastern and coastal Sindh, which are desperately waiting and are thirsty for first drop of rain. But as they that Patience is bitter, but its fruit is sweet, maybe that is true!

So Karachiites, it seems as if your waiting game is finally over as monsoon rainfall is expected.

Pakistan Weather Portal (PWP)’s forecast

Note: This is the forecast of Pakistan Weather Portal (PWP), we are 75% confident with this prediction. There will be slight variations in our forecast as certain meteorological factors develop and fade as time passes by and these factors are too isolated to be noticed on models, so if any change arises then PWP will update you.

PWP's weather forecast for July 24 night till July 25 night

Pakistan Weather Portal (PWP) had earlier forecasted that monsoon may hit Karachi on July 15 but PWP later revised their forecast and said;

“High chances of monsoon hitting Karachi late this month.”

Now PWP upgrades that forecast to “very high”, at least 48 hours have passed but that forecast has not changed and we are confident that monsoon will cover while monsoon regions of Pakistan on July 24 mid-day. On July 23, PWP upgraded its monsoon forecast for Karachi from “very high” to “extremely high”, we are confident that monsoon will hit south-eastern Sindh and Karachi in 36 to 48 hours.

Fresh monsoon rainfalls are likely in almost all parts of monsoon belt of Pakistan during late this month that is from July 23 night. The monsoon belt of Pakistan include Islamabad, Punjab, eastern Khyber, north-eastern Balochistan, Kashmir and Sindh including Karachi other regions that is rest of Balochistan, FATA, rest of Khyber and Giglit are non-monsoon regions.

Low pressure can be seen as of July 21

As of 5:30 pm PST July 21, various models are indicating that the upper air cyclonic circulations over the Bay of Bengal that  would cross West Bengal province and gain intensity into a low pressure area (happened as of July 21). The system would approach Madya Pradesh where it may lose intensity and become a UAC from here it will start its journey to south-eastern Sindh, while moving it will lose its intensity but it will send strong monsoon moisture to upper parts of Pakistan with strong currents from Arabian sea. The UAC will approach Sindh by July 24/25 by that time the system will be highly sheared and it will tear into different parts of thunderstorms and eventually dissipating over the Arabian sea. Few of its thunderstorms will also reach as far as Oman.

As of 6:00 pm PST July 23, the western trough, Arabian sea’s moisture and low’s moisture is likely to interact over Upper Pakistan. The low rapidly intensified into a depression on July 22 over Jharkhand and moved from Jharkhand to Utter Pradesh to Madya Pradesh (The track as forecasted by PWP on July 21). On July 23, the depression weakened into a well-marked low over North Madya Pradesh. According to latest forecast, the system has moved towards western Madya Pradesh and adjoining Rajasthan and Gujarat. The system will weaken rapidly before coming to Sindh (maybe a UAC or remnant low, as forecasted earlier by PWP), the system will reach Sindh by between July 24 and July 25, it will be in dissipating stages at that time. Few of its moisture could reach Oman as well. Following is the forecast in detail for Islamabad, Punjab and Sindh;

Islamabad

The 4th spell of monsoon will begin from July 23 night and continue till 3 to 4 days, till July 27 mid-day. Rain will be accompanied by fast to strong winds and thunder, it will be moderate in intensity with isolated heavy falls to isolated very heavy falls.

Punjab

In Northern Punjab: Lahore, Faisalabad, Murree, Rawalpindi, Sargodha, Sialkot and other adjoining cities. The 4th spell will begin from July 23 night and will continue till July 27 mid-day, and decrease thereafter . Rain will be accompanied by fast to strong winds and thunder, it will be moderate in intensity with isolated heavy falls to isolated very heavy falls.

In Southern Punjab: Bahawalpur, Multan, Rahim Yar Khan, D. G. Khan and other adjoining cities. The 4th spell will start from July 24 night and continue till July 25 night, and decrease thereafter.  Rain will be accompanied by winds and thunder, it will be moderate in intensity with moderate falls likely.

Sindh

Rain forecast: July 21 till July 28

In Upper Sindh: Sukkur, Larkana, Jacobabad, Kashmore and other adjoining  cities. The 3rd spell will begin from July 24 mid-day an continue till July 25 night, and decrease thereafter. Rain will be accompanied by fast winds and thunder, it will be moderate in intensity with few isolated heavy falls, but mostly scattered moderate falls likely here too.

In South-eastern Sindh: Mirpur khas, Umerkot, Tharparkar, Badin and Hyderabad. The 1st monsoon spell will begin from July 24 mid-day and continue till July 25 late night, and decrease thereafter. Rain will be accompanied by gusty winds and thunder, it will be moderate in intensity with isolated heavy falls.

In coastal Sindh: Karachi, Thatta, Keti, Shah Bandar and other coastal localities. The 1st monsoon spell will begin from July 24 mid-day and continue till July 25 late night, and decrease thereafter. Rain will be accompanied by fast winds and thunder, it will be moderate in intensity with isolated heavy falls, but mostly scattered moderate falls likely here as well.

Overall monsoon will cover all the monsoon regions of Pakistan and it is very likely that monsoon regions of Pakistan will be covered completely by monsoon on July 24 mid-day.

Poll of the week

Pakistan Weather Portal (PWP) wants to know how confident are it’s readers from Karachi, it would be better if Karachiites also comment about what they have voted for us to see the majority and different moods of Karachi;

801 replies to “Pakistan Weather Update & Monsoon alert (July 21 – July 28)”

  1. Are the courses offered by the Pakistan Meteorological Department(Institute of Meteorology & Geophysics) at Karachi University any good?

  2. @EVERY BODY
    request the readers to ask or express their views related to the articles…if they want to ask something off the topic… they should email me…

  5. Rain/Dust-Thundershower with isolated heavy falls is also expected at scattered places in Sindh on Sunday/Monday. (PMD)

  9. its still not THAT confirm , but inshahALLAH we’ll see some rains this time =p
    kal friday hia everyone pray for rains with peace…

  12. Will it rains heavily over karachi or just light rain? If it rains light or dirzzle then, Waiting game is not over. By the way, Now, Neither BBC showing any meaningful rains over karachi nor usa forecasters.

  13. fellow Karachian lets enjoy rain with Pakora and suji Halwa….. i am waiting since 23 May …….:)

  20. RED ALERT: Low pressure becomes a depression over Jharkhand
    it means if it reaches Karachi heavy fall expected/……….?

  21. @KM
    The low which is about to hit us has turned into a depression?…is this a bad thing? :/

  23. why don’t u update monsoon of pakistan page when u update monsoon 2011 update :s

  28. will it rain or not….. i am waiting since 2 june………..
    i just want rain even if a xtreme cyclone or a tsunami hits karachi…….

  29. @Haris & Aqib
    the amount is varying from model to model…
    @Sam
    depression is a much stronger form of low… its track will determine its future..
    @Tarim
    Updated now..
    @Shahjee
    slim chances of rainfall tomorrow night…
    @U.K
    tsunami is not meteorology..but it will rain..
    @Shakeel
    Yes it will rain… signs may start from tomorrow mid-night or July 24 morning…

  31. bbc map is not showing that rainy clouds reaching to karachi….what do think K.M….?

  32. lol i wonder who that one person is who voted “NO, NOW POWER WILL BE OUT” for the poll of the week :P

  33. very thick and Grey clouds are coming…does any chance of drizzle or light rain….?

  36. @EVERY BODY
    This article will be updated tomorrow…nothing much to update till night…as forecast is same for whole pakistan at the moment…

  37. KARACHI METRO will this system hit us as a depression or lose it’s strength before hitting us?

  38. Km can you please inform me for larkana weather and abi buhat thandi and taiz hawa chal.rai hah yahan kal se cool air buhat lagrai hah yahan whats the sign that and heavy rain
    will toucch larkana tonite

  39. Yea! Been looking for this since cyclone keila! I really love this website and wish you best of luck!

  40. No rain expected in Karachi, it will be few drizzle if may happen. No rain in July, wait till mid August.

    1. yaar danish, conditions says there would be no moonson rains in karachi this year.

  45. Is there a gud news or a bad news ? :p
    KM i just saw the satellite image on pakmet and they’re showing that the depression is over Gujrat and its advancing in Sindh.

  47. pakmet sayin ainda 48 ghnto ke doran karachi samet sindh ke beshtar ilako me andhi aur tez hwa chlne ke ilawa garj chamk ke sath bharish ka imkan ha. jbke baz makamat par mosladhar barish ka imkan ha :DD

  50. Aaaaaaaahh.. good news.. all weather channels reporting the same.. means its surely gonna rain this time.. Karachi walon.. get ready to go out for havin fun dana dand.

  55. KARACHI METRO all the satellite images are showing that the system has entered Sindh IS THIS TRUE??

  57. so it will be at dissipating stage when it hits us? Does that mean no heavy rainfall? :(

  62. w0w ! after seeing this weather.com image, it’s confirmed that PMD’s image is wrong :/

  65. ya pakmet’s image is wrong their showing us that the system is already in sindh but if it was then it would have been raining rite now but be patient becuz the system is slowly starting to enter sindh :)

  68. Let me tell you once again that there will be no rain in Karachi this month even don’t except any rain in August as well.

    Rain system has defused which was coming to Karachi and Sindh.

    @KM please update your blog and tell people about exact situation and no rain.

  70. guys if rain be ready with Moombati and hand Pankha as we KESC still not resume its fault rectification operation….. So thets why sing RAIN RAIN GO AWAY……… (KESC msg.)

    1. same forecast persist… I think now all T.V channels are also giving news about Karachi’s “forecasted” rain… more micro update tomorrow…

  73. geo is saying ainda 24 hrs k baad karachi k mukhtalif illaqo mai teaz aandhi k saat baarish k imkaan hai :)

  75. This low needs SHARBAT-E-FAULAD rather than moisture, it is weakening very rapidly, lets see will it pull some moisture from arabian sea.

  76. I think more chances of rain today with strom because clouds r coming frm east indicates modreate rain babar bai m i rite??????

  77. ya i see clouds coming from the east and the wind has stopped. Let’s see what happens! :)

    1. u and danish don’t have even 1% knowledge of metrology , the GFS and wind farms are suggesting rains from sunday late will tuesday … so let it be … that F-tard said drizzle in august … HA HA HA!!!

  79. nooooooo don’t lose hope now when all the weather websites starts to show no more rain then we can lose hope

  80. and clouds are starting to rush in from the NE which is good becuz those clouds are suppose to give us rain so INSHALLAH we will get rains

  82. The wind direction has changed and the clouds are coming for East… Black clouds, No wind blowing at the moment, and only the clouds are roaming…. I think a really good sign for rain.. :)

  83. KM, will thunderstorms develope later in the day ???
    Intellicast showing that thunderstorms will develope in the evening today.

  85. KARACHI METRO any chance for the storm to gain strength becuz of the amount of humidity and arabian sea moisture in our area?

  86. Karachi’s are so unlucky. They are still thirsty for single rain. August is always good for rain for punjab not for Sindh specially for karachi. So wait for the next year.

      1. ofcourse that very system is likely to cause Rainfall here , pakmet updated to 9mm of rains

  92. pray to ALLAH for rains stupids rather than saying no rain no rain :@…. We have seen some rains without any long prediction or something else….that only because of prayers

  97. @Jackie I know you are an expert but DO NOT UNDERESTIMATE others as well.

    @Everyone: There is no chance of rain in Karachi today but few drizzle are expected tomorrow but this forecast can be changed within few minutes.

    No heavy rainfall till Mid August. So just wait and pray.

    1. well i never UNDERESTIMATED u cuz i wasn;t estimating over u in the 1st place , i dont want to prove my experties to anyone im organized enough towards the big met guns of our country … anyways let it be … Period…

  99. mujhy lagta hai yeh system bhi sindh m barish barsay bagair khatam ho jay ga.kiyon k 2 din jo habs tha woh aj khatam ho gya hai our tez thandi hawaien chal rahi hein mirpurkhas city m.habs barish ki nishani hoti hai mgr jb habs k bad hawa chal jay to means barish tal gai…

  100. ‎@EVERY BODY
    There are chances of isolated heavy rainfall in Karachi as per latest forecast of many models (could change though) on July 25, no rain likely till 2:00 am. PWP will keep giving updates regarding any new development across Pakistan.

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