Time for waiting is over now!
Waiting game is over for Karachi!
Heat wave takes 4 lives in Sindh – death toll rises to 40
Background
This week had been a little quiet in terms of monsoon showers as no weather system has approached any part of the country, most weather system are dieing before entering Pakistan except for monsoon moisture which has been interacting with western troughs to enhance monsoon activity. Temperatures had increased in the country as forecasted by PWP. High humidity has also rised. Overall these are some things that have been observed during this week. Whats ahead?
Temperature – outlook
Overall the temperatures will be high in almost all parts of the country except Karachi and coastal Sindh due to fast winds. In parts of Upper Sindh and southern Punjab temperatures will hover around 45°C till next 2 to 3 days, then a decrease is expected. In Punjab and Khyber too, temperatures will decrease in next 2 to 3 days. Following is the expected temperature forecast (Forecast valid till 3 days), after that a decrease is very likely;
- 43 °C to 45 °C in Sukkur.
- 39 °C to 44 °C also in Larkana.
- 43 °C to 44 °C in Nawabshah.
- 38 °C to 40 °C in Hyderabad.
- 31 °C to 35 °C in Karachi. (Not likely to change)
- 42 °C to 45 °C in Lahore.
- 38 °C to 40 °C in Islamabad.
- 40 °C to 44°C in Multan.
- 40 °C to 44°C in Faisalabad.
- 38 °C to 40 °C in Peshawar.
People of upper Sindh and southern Punjab should take precautions till 2 to 3 days and avoid unnecessary outdoor activities, as on July 20, at least 4 people were killed in Jamshoro, Sindh due to intense heat waves. The death toll has now reached 40 in Pakistan, all these deaths were weather-related from heat wave to rainstorms to floods since June 25.
Monsoon update 2011
Much awaited rains are here!!
Low pressure over Madya Pradesh
Pakistan to be covered with monsoon!
India
The soul of monsoon is unusually very quiet that is Bay of Bengal. The Bay usually produces low pressures or depressions that enhance monsoon activity but so far it is failed to do so. While the Arabian sea is doing all it could to keep monsoon alive, strong cross-equatorial flows over Arabian sea that along with trough from Maharashtra coast to Kerala coast, is bring heavy to very heavy rainfall to this part of India. But others are not so lucky.
Pakistan
Monsoon had covered Punjab, Khyber, Kashmir, North-eastern Balochistan and upper Sindh except for south-eastern and coastal Sindh, which are desperately waiting and are thirsty for first drop of rain. But as they that Patience is bitter, but its fruit is sweet, maybe that is true!
So Karachiites, it seems as if your waiting game is finally over as monsoon rainfall is expected.
Pakistan Weather Portal (PWP)’s forecast
Note: This is the forecast of Pakistan Weather Portal (PWP), we are 75% confident with this prediction. There will be slight variations in our forecast as certain meteorological factors develop and fade as time passes by and these factors are too isolated to be noticed on models, so if any change arises then PWP will update you.
Pakistan Weather Portal (PWP) had earlier forecasted that monsoon may hit Karachi on July 15 but PWP later revised their forecast and said;
“High chances of monsoon hitting Karachi late this month.”
Now PWP upgrades that forecast to “very high”, at least 48 hours have passed but that forecast has not changed and we are confident that monsoon will cover while monsoon regions of Pakistan on July 24 mid-day. On July 23, PWP upgraded its monsoon forecast for Karachi from “very high” to “extremely high”, we are confident that monsoon will hit south-eastern Sindh and Karachi in 36 to 48 hours.
Fresh monsoon rainfalls are likely in almost all parts of monsoon belt of Pakistan during late this month that is from July 23 night. The monsoon belt of Pakistan include Islamabad, Punjab, eastern Khyber, north-eastern Balochistan, Kashmir and Sindh including Karachi other regions that is rest of Balochistan, FATA, rest of Khyber and Giglit are non-monsoon regions.
As of 5:30 pm PST July 21, various models are indicating that the upper air cyclonic circulations over the Bay of Bengal that would cross West Bengal province and gain intensity into a low pressure area (happened as of July 21). The system would approach Madya Pradesh where it may lose intensity and become a UAC from here it will start its journey to south-eastern Sindh, while moving it will lose its intensity but it will send strong monsoon moisture to upper parts of Pakistan with strong currents from Arabian sea. The UAC will approach Sindh by July 24/25 by that time the system will be highly sheared and it will tear into different parts of thunderstorms and eventually dissipating over the Arabian sea. Few of its thunderstorms will also reach as far as Oman.
As of 6:00 pm PST July 23, the western trough, Arabian sea’s moisture and low’s moisture is likely to interact over Upper Pakistan. The low rapidly intensified into a depression on July 22 over Jharkhand and moved from Jharkhand to Utter Pradesh to Madya Pradesh (The track as forecasted by PWP on July 21). On July 23, the depression weakened into a well-marked low over North Madya Pradesh. According to latest forecast, the system has moved towards western Madya Pradesh and adjoining Rajasthan and Gujarat. The system will weaken rapidly before coming to Sindh (maybe a UAC or remnant low, as forecasted earlier by PWP), the system will reach Sindh by between July 24 and July 25, it will be in dissipating stages at that time. Few of its moisture could reach Oman as well. Following is the forecast in detail for Islamabad, Punjab and Sindh;
Islamabad
The 4th spell of monsoon will begin from July 23 night and continue till 3 to 4 days, till July 27 mid-day. Rain will be accompanied by fast to strong winds and thunder, it will be moderate in intensity with isolated heavy falls to isolated very heavy falls.
Punjab
In Northern Punjab: Lahore, Faisalabad, Murree, Rawalpindi, Sargodha, Sialkot and other adjoining cities. The 4th spell will begin from July 23 night and will continue till July 27 mid-day, and decrease thereafter . Rain will be accompanied by fast to strong winds and thunder, it will be moderate in intensity with isolated heavy falls to isolated very heavy falls.
In Southern Punjab: Bahawalpur, Multan, Rahim Yar Khan, D. G. Khan and other adjoining cities. The 4th spell will start from July 24 night and continue till July 25 night, and decrease thereafter. Rain will be accompanied by winds and thunder, it will be moderate in intensity with moderate falls likely.
Sindh
In Upper Sindh: Sukkur, Larkana, Jacobabad, Kashmore and other adjoining cities. The 3rd spell will begin from July 24 mid-day an continue till July 25 night, and decrease thereafter. Rain will be accompanied by fast winds and thunder, it will be moderate in intensity with few isolated heavy falls, but mostly scattered moderate falls likely here too.
In South-eastern Sindh: Mirpur khas, Umerkot, Tharparkar, Badin and Hyderabad. The 1st monsoon spell will begin from July 24 mid-day and continue till July 25 late night, and decrease thereafter. Rain will be accompanied by gusty winds and thunder, it will be moderate in intensity with isolated heavy falls.
In coastal Sindh: Karachi, Thatta, Keti, Shah Bandar and other coastal localities. The 1st monsoon spell will begin from July 24 mid-day and continue till July 25 late night, and decrease thereafter. Rain will be accompanied by fast winds and thunder, it will be moderate in intensity with isolated heavy falls, but mostly scattered moderate falls likely here as well.
Overall monsoon will cover all the monsoon regions of Pakistan and it is very likely that monsoon regions of Pakistan will be covered completely by monsoon on July 24 mid-day.
Poll of the week
Pakistan Weather Portal (PWP) wants to know how confident are it’s readers from Karachi, it would be better if Karachiites also comment about what they have voted for us to see the majority and different moods of Karachi;
Pakistan Weather PortaL 
801 responses to “Pakistan Weather Update & Monsoon alert (July 21 – July 28)”
7 drizzles have occurred in Karachi till July 23 since June 1
1 june
14 june
22 jne
3 july
13 july
July 20
July 23
All of them were traces..
Intellicast and weather.com showing that sct T-storms will start in Karachi from 9-pm.
Well…the winds have not changed yet.. its still WSW or SW….
also low level clouds are coming from SW…
There are no clouds coming from SW.
Clouds are coming from NE (Cirrus Clouds).
It was humid weather in the morning and early afternoon, n0w it’s a little windy.
Current condition says there would be no rain.
chances of rain still presist? when and how much?
rain bossile next 24 hrs.INSHAALLAH
desperately waiting for Heavy Rain in Khi………… :(
More mass of clouds coming from NE direction.
you are right but wind is opposite direction….. what this means???
there will some rain but 2maro…… :)
@km
when will it rain in khi…………
and how much????
there will be some rain but 2maro…… :)
Karachi metro,,, when rain will start in karachi today,tonight????
reply….i’m waiting!
i don’t see clouds coming from the NE all i see is clouds coming from the arabian sea :/
KARACHI METRO when will you update the monsoon of pakistan page??
Lol sam those are not arabian sea clouds thos are cirrus and alto cumulus clouds (high level clouds) give them a look, you can bearly see them moving.
Yes, intellicast and weather.com showing T-storms (80% precipitation) for both 25th and 26th of july.
@Sam
updated..
@Sheraz
likely after mid-night…
@Wasi
check monsoon of pakistan page…
HOW MUCH PERCENT YOU CAN PREDICT ABOUT RAIN THIS NIGHT?
km?????
No rain tonight till 2:00 am…just drizzle/light showers could occur (5%-15%)
Hmmm yesterday I was the only one informing about weakening of low pressure and mass of people giving me thumbs down :)
KM’s recent post showing now which I was talking about yesterday.
UPDATE: Few chances of drizzle in Karachi on Monday and no heavy rain till mid August.
aisa nai bolo yr dil dukhta ha
OHOOO km i asking about how much percent chances of rain after 2 am?
35%-40% and then increase…
danish bhai apna blog bana looo… update dene k lye KM bhai kaafi hain :P:P:P
lol :P
Forget Rains Now…..
since 2nd June we Karachites were waiting for rains…..
luck blessed us with a single system of Rains, and unfortunately that system died before reaching Karachi :( who can argue with the nature :(
Waiting Game is Finally over :'(
True, but dishearted na ho,hopefully tomorrow after 4pm ho.
km will u tell me about rainy clouds? which clouds are rainy… u mention autocumulus and cumulus and other categories
The cool wind is now blowing in from east it means the rain is not far away …
Its still SW…
CUMULONIMBUS clouds are the KING of all clouds !
Yeah i also felt that the widn blew from East :o
Wind*
yaar :( this low is going towards the arabian sea :(
http://www.weather.com/weather/map/interactive/PKXX0008
and look how lucky upper pakistan is!
iTs OkAy sAm
the wind has suddenly stopped…
http://www.yr.no/place/Pakistan/Sindh/Karachi/
it will rain tomorrow
Its raining bullets in Karachi :@
Cumulus humilis clouds that were coming from SW are n0w gone and there are only Altocumulus Castellanus clouds covering the whole sky (NE direction clouds), the wind has also sudenly st0pped bl0wing, i think something is on it’s wAy to Karachi :D
http://foreca.com/Pakistan/Karachi?map=sat
how can u differentiate the clouds in in night ?
lol………….
the whole sky is clear over here :( i can see the stars
Karachi metro sir i want to know information aboit larkana city kunke sunday ko yahan batish honi thi apnei kaha tha lekin abi tak khali clouds aarahein hei barish nai so can you plz help me oit when will rain occur here in larkana aur heavy rainfall.hoga yeh esy lite rain jst
“The appearance of Altocumulus Castellanus early in a sunny day may indicate a high probability the formation of thunderstorms in the afternoon, as they may develop into cumulonimbus storm clouds.”
Hmmm……okay maybe there is some hope
these high clouds are sign that rainly clouds are far away.
I have been seeing clouds since i was 4 years old.
thats h0w i can differentiate and The SW clouds are l0w laying and they move pretty fast.
hehehe,toba hy,@ 4 yrs….
actocumulus,cumulus,nimbus,cirrus,cirrocumulus,cirrostratus,stratus,nimbostratus etc are all types of CUMULONIMBUS clouds and they can turn into cumulonimbus clouds.
Enough for to day no rain to day get sleep tight and ready for fun for 2marow. Hope no rain 2marow also.
BBC…… say whatever cloud it is not going to rain..:)
@km
can u tell that when will rain start today and when will 2nd monsoon rainfall begin in karachi >??????
:(:( any update km…. eid k chand ki tarhan ate hain km bhai or chale jate hain… kamazkam aaj k din to full update kerte raho bhai
ahahahahha
HUH! ?? are u guys nuts ? :S who said its not going to rain this time ? :/ … IR image clearly showing thunder cells moving in as i posted earlier it was near indo-pak border in morning =p
It was near pak-indo border at that time….where has it gone n0w ??:p
its still their , open u eyes and see it … if it not in blue mirror doesn’t meant its dead or gone / moisture is still present their and moving in @ a slow pace
i wonder why u cant see it , cuz u can differentiate btw clouds and rain cloud when u were only 4 years old … TSK TSK TSK !!!! savage skies ki documentary wapas dekhlo … u have skipped many things …
just wait … rains shall come tomo InshahALLAH
U stupid, when did i said that it’s gone ?? Idoit.
I just wanted a link bc0z pakmet isn’t updating their satellite image.
negative mtlab nai nikala kro ksi ki baat ka n00b :/
yaar pakmet ka image kyun update nahin horaha 5:32 k baad abi tak update nahin hoa :@ :@ :@ :x:x:X
sogye hain w0h.
sat update ka budget khatam hogaya hay… pak met ka…. and Jackie uncle is actualy KM with different name…. this the blog tactic ..
koi mujhe satellite image ka link batayen
1
the winds have suddenly stopped n clouds have finaally covered the sky :D
waqai yaar ? hamare area main to nahin hai
bhai koi link batao map ka ya satellite ka
http://www.imd.gov.in/section/satmet/dynamic/insat.htm
wind has again started blowing
in larkana right now wind is stopped. too hot right now. i think its sign of rain.! what abt karachi?
yar whats happening satelite image kha se mile gi
thunder strom knoking karachi door…!
is it raining in karachi?
i can see rainfalls on 26th as well … as predicted earlier just got new intel from windfams things are stable for prepcast ..
guyz its raining in mirpurkhaas wowwwww….. monsoon hits mid sindh that is mirpurkhas…. i have just seen in news aaaj breaking news
bahi soojaaa….. hum karachi walay to KESC kay maray hain…
when it started rains in whole sindh?!!!!!!!1
waisai ALLAH ka shukar hai hamara area abhi tak load shedding sai bacha hua hai
Zulfi bahi which area do you live i want to rent a flat or house …. Thanks
steel town
Any updates KM ???????????? :S:S
Karachi metro sir i want to know information about larkana city kunke sunday ko yahan barish honi thi apnei kaha tha lekin abi tak khali clouds aarahein hei barish nai so can you plz help me oit when will rain occur here in larkana aur heavy rainfall.hoga yeh esy lite rain jst
Daily downpours in punjab and Karachi long awaits for heavy monsoon rains is continue still
Mr.KM ??????????????????????????????
25th of july and still no sign of rain.
any time of the day..rains will start now..especially later in the day..
good morning my fellow karachiities…..WHERE THE HELL IS THE RAIN?? :(
LoL no rain :p
KM Bhai sath rho ap abhi plz bht kuch puchna ha :S PMD bhi apni sat. image update nai kr rhi n00b :@:@:@
yAr i’m seeing on every weather website, they’re sh0wing no change in wind direction as winds are expected to blew from SW and in monsoon of 2010, wind was bl0wing from SW mostly and its n0t neccessory for the wind to bl0w from NE or E f0r rains is it ?
well….no winds do change their direction…they also did this in 2010 too….
Yeah they did but wind wAs bl0wing fr0m SW or WSW m0stly.
NE wind bl0ws when rain is just about to start, am i right ?
at high level winds were still NE…but low level winds were calm SW…
bl0w*
i’m just seeing altocumulus clouds since july 23rd m0rning till n0w, they’re n0t changing into cumulonimbus rain clouds :( just fair weather altocumulus clouds.
That depends upon God now…there are chances of thunderstorms since yesterday…so if God wants then it will rain….
every web sh0wing rain in Karachi from 12pm.
At 8:30 AM, I saw some pieces of grey nimbus clouds which were a sign of rain and i thought that rain is just around the corner but n0w they’re g0ne and the altocumulus clouds are also going.
Whenever I see sat. image, there is a small piece of cloud over Lah0re and Islamabad that causes heavy rainfall but here even a big system w0n’t give a single dr0p of rain. i think ALLAh is dissapointed fr0m the Karachiites.
@KM :
Plz give me a sat. image i want to see the current conditions :(
PMD isn’t updating their sat. image :@:@:@
PMD has updated it’s sat. image :D
Allah(SWT) must be punishing us becuz of all the bloodshed n violence going on in karachi…..
I think this dAy will pass like 24th of july with no rain.
@KM stop creating confusions, rain clouds passed away from Karachi, I am telling you all this since yesterday. Stop waiting for rain and get back to work.
I will keep updating as long as there are chances of rains…people who dont like it can leave the blog peacefully…
yaar yeh system tou oman ki taraf ja raha hai :( it is going without hitting us :(
@KM Now must say that it will change in course like Phet :P
lol @ danish, heheheheeh
Current conditions say, chances of rain in karachi are only 10% – 20%.
salay weather.com are showing 80% chances of rain today :@
Only GOD knows well, we all can only be able to predict on basis of our past experience and judgement.
No chances of rain n0w, system passed away.
yaar mirpur khas ko baarish milgaye magar hum becharay karachiities ko kuch bhi nahi mil raha :(
no sam Mirpurkhas m sirf kal raat ko light rain means boonda baandi hui hai.our abhi bht bht habs hai our aasman saaf hai our sooraj aag barsa rha hai….
hy wasi, do u live in Mirpur khas?
yes
Assalam o Alaikum,
Dear Km, i feel that bay of bengal is very active now and producing some heavy systems whats ur opinion abt Arb and BOB conditions???
Hey Km where are the rains ? =D
bus kar du, babar bhai ab pagal ho jain gy…………………………………
@Everyone KM is not the weather contractor who can bring rain at your demands, he can just make predication on the basis of his experience and current weather phenomena.
ATM there is no wind blowing in the city which is making weather even more hotter and as far as rain is concerned there are slight chances between 1600-1700 hours today.
@Danish :
Who’s asking KM to bring rains ??? LoL
w0w It’s Raining Heavily in Karachi =D
Babar Bhai is Right…. chances of thundershowers in karachi today anytime…
and weather can’t be predicted 100% accurate. without God’s will not even a single drop of rain can fall over the land.No matter if there are heavy clouds even.
as Babar Bhai said before “people who dont like it can leave the blog peacefully…”
do leave else PWP will leave you :p
PMD has updated it’s prepcast to 16.7mm for Karachi.
Still no sign of rain, the system is going towards Oman.
the foreca weather software on my mobile is saying clouds still haven’t reached karachi :/
chances of rain in karachi :
0.001 %
80% chance of rain after 5 pm
@km
can u tell that when will rain start today and when will 2nd monsoon rainfall begin in karachi >??????
babar bhai it was forecasted to be rainy day but right now its sunny with humid conditionsss :( when will it rain????