Time for waiting is over now!
Waiting game is over for Karachi!
Heat wave takes 4 lives in Sindh – death toll rises to 40
Background
This week had been a little quiet in terms of ย monsoon showers as no weather system has approached any part of the country, most weather system are dieing before entering Pakistan except for monsoon moisture which has been interacting with western troughs to enhance monsoon activity. Temperatures had increased in the country as forecasted by PWP. High humidity has also rised. Overall these are some things that have been observed during this week. Whats ahead?
Temperature – outlook
Overall the temperatures will be high in almost all parts of the country except Karachi and coastal Sindh due to fast winds. In parts of Upper Sindh and southern Punjab temperatures will hover around 45ยฐCย till next 2 to 3 days, then a decrease is expected. In Punjab and Khyber too, temperatures will decrease in next 2 to 3 days. Following is the expected temperature forecast (Forecast valid till 3 days), after that a decrease is very likely;
- 43 ยฐC to 45 ยฐC in Sukkur.
- 39 ยฐC to 44 ยฐC also in Larkana.
- 43 ยฐC to 44 ยฐC in Nawabshah.
- 38 ยฐC to 40 ยฐC in Hyderabad.
- 31 ยฐC to 35 ยฐC in Karachi. (Not likely to change)
- 42 ยฐC to 45 ยฐC in Lahore.
- 38 ยฐC to 40 ยฐC in Islamabad.
- 40 ยฐC to 44ยฐC in Multan.
- 40 ยฐC to 44ยฐC in Faisalabad.
- 38 ยฐC to 40 ยฐC in Peshawar.
People of upper Sindh and southern Punjab should take precautions till 2 to 3 days and avoid unnecessary outdoor activities, as on July 20, at least 4 people were killed in Jamshoro, Sindh due to intense heat waves. The death toll has now reached 40 in Pakistan, all these deaths were weather-related from heat wave to rainstorms to floods since June 25.
Monsoon update 2011
Much awaited rains are here!!
Low pressure over Madya Pradesh
Pakistan to be covered with monsoon!
India
The soul of monsoon is unusually very quiet that is Bay of Bengal. The Bay usually produces low pressures or depressions that enhance monsoon activity but so far it is failed to do so. While the Arabian sea is doing all it could to keep monsoon alive, strongย cross-equatorial flows over Arabian sea that along with trough from Maharashtra coast to Kerala coast, is bring heavy to very heavy rainfall to this part of India. But others are not so lucky.
Pakistan
Monsoon had covered Punjab, Khyber, Kashmir, North-eastern Balochistan and upper Sindh except for south-eastern and coastal Sindh, which are desperately waiting and are thirsty for first drop of rain. But as they thatย Patience is bitter, but its fruit is sweet, maybe that is true!
So Karachiites, it seems as if your waiting game is finally over as monsoon rainfall is expected.
Pakistan Weather Portal (PWP)’s forecast
Note:ย This is the forecast of Pakistan Weather Portal (PWP), we are 75% confident with this prediction.ย There will be slight variations in our forecast as certain meteorological factors develop and fade as time passes by and these factors are too isolated to be noticed on models, so if any change arises then PWPย will update you.
Pakistan Weather Portal (PWP) had earlier forecasted that monsoon may hit Karachi on July 15 but PWP later revised their forecast and said;
“High chances of monsoon hitting Karachi late this month.”
Now PWP upgrades that forecast to “very high”, at least 48 hours have passed but that forecast has not changed and we are confident that monsoon will cover while monsoon regions of Pakistan on July 24 mid-day. On July 23, PWP upgraded its monsoon forecast for Karachi from “very high” to “extremely high”, we are confident that monsoon will hit south-eastern Sindh and Karachi in 36 to 48 hours.
Fresh monsoon rainfalls are likely in almost all parts of monsoon belt of Pakistan during late this month that is from July 23 night. The monsoon belt of Pakistan include Islamabad, Punjab, eastern Khyber, north-eastern Balochistan, Kashmir and Sindh including Karachi other regions that is rest of Balochistan, FATA, rest of Khyber and Giglit are non-monsoon regions.
As of 5:30 pm PST July 21, various models are indicating that the upper air cyclonic circulations over the Bay of Bengal that ย would cross West Bengal province and gain intensity into a low pressure area (happened as of July 21). The system would approach Madya Pradesh where it may lose intensity and become a UAC from here it will start its journey to south-eastern Sindh, while moving it will lose its intensity but it will send strong monsoon moisture to upper parts of Pakistan with strong currents from Arabian sea. The UAC will approach Sindh by July 24/25 by that time the system will be highly sheared and it will tear into different parts of thunderstorms and eventually dissipating over the Arabian sea. Few of its thunderstorms will also reach as far as Oman.
As of 6:00 pm PST July 23, the western trough, Arabian sea’s moisture and low’s moisture is likely to interact over Upper Pakistan. The low rapidly intensified into a depression on July 22 over Jharkhand and moved from Jharkhand to Utter Pradesh to Madya Pradesh (The trackย as forecasted by PWP on July 21). On July 23, the depression weakened into a well-marked low over North Madya Pradesh. According to latest forecast, the system has moved towards western Madya Pradesh and adjoining Rajasthan and Gujarat. The system will weaken rapidly before coming to Sindh (maybe a UAC or remnant low, as forecasted earlier by PWP), the system will reach Sindh by between July 24 and July 25, it will be in dissipating stages at that time. Few of its moisture could reach Oman as well. Following is the forecast in detail for Islamabad, Punjab and Sindh;
Islamabad
The 4th spell of monsoon will begin from July 23 night and continue till 3 to 4 days, till July 27 mid-day. Rain will be accompanied by fast to strong winds and thunder, it will be moderate in intensity with isolated heavy falls to isolated very heavy falls.
Punjab
In Northern Punjab: Lahore, Faisalabad, Murree, Rawalpindi, Sargodha, Sialkot and other adjoining cities. The 4th spell will begin from July 23 night and will continue till July 27 mid-day, and decrease thereafterย .ย Rain will be accompanied by fast to strong winds and thunder, it will be moderate in intensity with isolated heavy falls to isolated very heavy falls.
In Southern Punjab:ย Bahawalpur,ย Multan,ย Rahim Yar Khan, D. G. Khan and other adjoining cities. The 4th spell will start from July 24 night and continue till July 25 night, and decrease thereafter.ย ย Rain will be accompanied by winds and thunder, it will be moderate in intensity with moderate falls likely.
Sindh
In Upper Sindh: Sukkur, Larkana, Jacobabad, Kashmore and other adjoining ย cities. The 3rd spell will begin from July 24 mid-day an continue till July 25 night, and decrease thereafter.ย Rain will be accompanied by fast winds and thunder, it will be moderate in intensity with few isolated heavy falls, but mostly scattered moderate falls likely here too.
In South-eastern Sindh: Mirpur khas, Umerkot, Tharparkar, Badin and Hyderabad. The 1st monsoon spell will begin from July 24 mid-day and continue till July 25 late night, and decrease thereafter.ย Rain will be accompanied by gusty winds and thunder, it will be moderate in intensity with isolated heavy falls.
In coastal Sindh: Karachi, Thatta, Keti, Shah Bandar and other coastal localities. The 1st monsoon spell will begin from July 24 mid-day and continue till July 25 late night, and decrease thereafter.ย Rain will be accompanied by fast winds and thunder, it will be moderate in intensity with isolated heavy falls, but mostly scattered moderate falls likely here as well.
Overall monsoon will cover all the monsoon regions of Pakistan and it is very likely that monsoon regions of Pakistan will be covered completely by monsoon on July 24 mid-day.
Poll of the week
Pakistan Weather Portal (PWP) wants to know how confident are it’s readers from Karachi, it would be better if Karachiites also comment about what they have voted for us to see the majority and different moods of Karachi;
Pakistan Weather PortaL 
801 responses to “Pakistan Weather Update & Monsoon alert (July 21 – July 28)”
As par current the weather conditions , chances of rain is 0% in karachi.
Weather prediction by BBC is 100% accurate.
Gusty winds are now blowing from west, which is a clear indication of NO rain.
Karachi mein chahay forecast ho ya na ho magar barish kabhe nahi hoti. Sirf karachi kay saath hai aisa kyon hota hai? Punjab mein chahay forecast ho ya na ho magar heavy rains hamesha hoti hai. Yeh baat samjah say balatar hai.Kya wajah hai?
i think there is a chance of rain, CUMULONIMBUS cloud is visible in the Eastern direction. Go and check
@Tarim
Sir can you elaborate the term “system”, which is going towards Oman.
@ All their will be no rain till August . System is near Oman now and weather is all clear except few clouds.
@Tarim, those are no rainy clouds beside gusty winds from WSW have started blowing again which were stopped in the morning.so chances are very very limited to 0%.
ok people then forget rains f0r n0w. stop argueing.
@KM :
Where r u s1r ? :p
Update ???????
A suddun change in RH% and Dew point see below data or go to below link
Time (PKT) 2:00 PM 2:30 PM
Temp. 35.0ย ยฐC 35.0ย ยฐC
Heat Index 43.2ย ยฐC –
Dew Point 25.0ย ยฐC 2.0ย ยฐC
Humidity 56% 12%
Pressure 1000ย hPa 1006ย hPa
Visibility 7.0ย km 7.0ย km
Wind Dir WSW West
Wind Speed 18.5ย km/h / 5.1ย m/s 14.8ย km/h / 4.1ย m/s
Gust Speed – –
Precip N/A N/A
Events
Conditions Scattered Clouds Scattered Clouds
http://www.wunderground.com/history/airport/OPKC/2011/7/25/DailyHistory.html?req_city=NA&req_state=NA&req_statename=NA
KARACHI METRO no more rain??????
CUMULONIMBUS clouds are coming from NE inshallah it will be rain…very light wind is blowing from west and NE….
Bhai kisne bola wind west se chalrhi hai east se gust aarhe hain and subha altocucmulus clouds were somewhat still but now they are approaching with fast speed from east
no more rain people :(
I can clearly see cumulonimbus clouds in ESE direction.
bhai yahan to black clouds aana shuru hogaye hain frm east yahoooooo
kahaan?
czechoslavikia :P
Han yahan bhi :D
Thick black clouds from the East
whr boy….in which part of khi u ppl r living?
pls post ur locations as well TARIM …
@tarim and owais hyder
are cumulonimbus clouds dark in colour ?? ???
cuz there are no clouds in our area :(
just clear sky :s
bahi woo tire jal rhay hain. KESC walao kay liyee tarim pls confirm…
aiwen, kahan aa rahy hain clouds, muj ko tu saaf sky he nazar aa raha hy,
these clouds have not yet covered the whole area of karachi we should wait 1-2 hours more
No dark clouds here in phase 8 :( yaar are you sure it’s not black smoke?
:)
g0ne g0ne g0ne g0ne g0ne g0ne g0ne Clouds are g0ne :@:@:@:@:@:@:@:@:@:@:@
n0 m0re rain and n0w :@:@:@:@:@:@:@:@:@:@:@:@
stupid Karachi :@:@:@:@:@
KM i think u should change monsoon status f0r Karachi fr0m extremely high to extremely slim.
sam, yup, no clouds here in phase 5 too , saadddddddddddddddd
We want updates Mr.KM:S
If you wait or think for so long some time illusion come in mind and it called physiological break down or Chemical Locha like Munna bahiโฆ. . ๏
Our beloved friends are passing such critical stage I urge pray for their health.
my GOD, fucking hilarious but TRUE
cumulonimbus clouds came and i thought that n0w it’s time f0r rain but after s0me time i checked the sky n0thing was there :@:@:@:@:@
karachi metro plzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz update us
Babar Bhai update krdo yaar PLease :(
lol @ tarim…..
I came to know now that some afghani kachra chunne wale kids were burning trash these black cumolonimbus clouds were from that trash smoke :P
jab experts yahan behte howe 0% chance of rain bata rahe hain to phir weather.com walon ne kin bhagoron ko employee rakha hoa hai k saale 80% chance of rain dekha rahe hain…………. bhai experts do apply on weather.com
:S:S:S we’re educated enough to differentiate between cumulonimbus clouds and trash sm0ke :S cumulonimbus are very high level clouds and you can bearly see them m0ving. This conditi0n doesn’t apply to trash sm0ke i think :p
They were low level kachranimbus clouds :P
And Babar Bhai ap Eid ke chaand ki trha hi atey ho aur chaley jatey ho :(
so interesting discussion, mayri tu hansi he nai ruk rak rahee @ trash smoke and afghanis kids
The cumulonimbus clouds are stiil in the sky but they’re going.
we need update…….
These are cumulonimbus clouds.
maybe babar bhai is taking a nap? :p
Ary yar Babar Bhai :S
yaar 2007 ka toofaaan yaad araha hai us main east se kia black clouds aye te phir toofaan phr baarish……… full package ta all in one….. un rains se pehle bhi aisa hi mosam hota taaa garmi or jhis ka
han lekin clouds aise akar bhagey nai the us wqt.
Yaar dont lose hpe wind is still blowing in from east and more clouds are coming these broken clouds are the initial ones before a thunderstorm wait and see
usual wind har started bl0wing and clouds are n0w going.
Happy No-Rainy day Karachiites :)
abhi to clouds waise hi bhaag rahe hain jaise km bhai blog se bhagte hain :P :P :P
BREAKING NEWS :
Islamabad, Lahore aur Rawalpindi me waqfe waqfe se barish, mausam khushgawar. Karachi me waqfe waqfe se firing, mausam khaufzada :)
2007 ka t20 worldcup final yaad agaya jab MISBAH ne bekaar shot khel k hamara dil tora ta jeet k kareeb aa k….. isi tarhan baadal bhi dil tor rahe hain hamarra :( paas aaa aaa k jaa rahe hain :P
jab rulana hi taaa mujhe
to phir hansaya kyun :P
Babar bhai kahan ho yar…janta ko update karo kub barish key asar hongey??
Chalo chalo sab Izlooo xhalooooo, lahore challoooo, train or plane ki booking karwaoooo
Baber bahi Barash laynay gayee hain… :)
Sound like babar bhai TAIL(oil) layny gy hain
KM does not have any idea about Rain..that’s why hje ran away from Metro….search him where he is ??
Some people don’t know about weather system, where they see clouds they suppose that the weather system is there. First come up with definition and then comment.
Karachi metro,, ap ho kahan???? kia update hy karachi mein rain ki???
LoL @ Tabish.
Then where do these clouds c0me fr0m ?? YOur h0me ? n00b.
BOB is active again!
@Everyone: You can start count down now.
According to you system is moving towards oman while it didn’t cross indo-pak border.
now clouds are coming again,wat do u think now?
Clouds that are covering Karachi are cirrus clouds, the weakest form of cumulonimbus clouds.
Any sign of………………………………….Babar Bhai ???? =D
babar bhaiiiii where r uuuuuu??????? :p
breaking news on geo sindh main ainda 24 sai 36 hrs main mosla dhar barishon ka imkan.khi main bhi mosla dhar barishon ka imkan
zulfi is rite n v hope rain will start tonight
han han w0h sab thek ha but WHERE THE HELL IS BABAR BHAI ??????? =D
Babar mian Babar mian kahan gaye ???? …. its raining cats and dogs in our area i caught 2 cats and 1 dog
most of them over here hav non-serious attitude….kio dein gey woh koi comments?
aisa lag raha hao kai barish honai wali hai.yahan kafi dark clouds agai hain
whr do u live zulfi?
haan over here too kaali ghata aaing rain is around the corner be prepared with your pakoras and samosas
rain will start in 15 mins
Dark grey CLouds :D:D:D:D:D:D:D:D
Looks like the real system has started.
u guys enjoy ur samosas n pakoras, no dark clouds here :(
Km any chances of rain t0night ?
Tarim where do you live???
black clouds are coming with thunder….!
Rain started in Badin & Nawabshah ….. Keep counting
safurah
sam where do u live ?? :S
YAAR JIN LOGO KO KALAY BADAL NAZAR AH RAHAY HAI PLZ TELL ME WHERE U LIVE!
phase 8 :/
Black clouds coming from East..
Hopefully, some rain tonight.. :D
:(
@EVERY BODY
Various models including GFS running as of 7:40 pm PST show that chances of rainfall in Karachi would last till July 26 evening/night, after that a long dry break expected.
“long dry break” meaning wait till 2012 :/
No no… just 7 to 10 days…these are monsoon breaks…
Heavy rain in Badin now!!!
Lucky Badin.. I guess Karachiest gonn enjoy only bathroom showers this year Hhahaha
steel town maain nazar arahai hain dark gray clouds with some lightning
lol babar bhai jab “Heavy rain in KARACHI now!!!” hoga phir humay batana :P
oooh god…!
http://freemeteo.com/default.asp?mfvar=PRATE&pid=306&la=1&gid=1174872 watch on this…
steel town india kai zayada qareeb hai is liye ho sakta hai yahan jaldi barish ho jai
steel town is NE from where I live yaaay clouds are on their way here!!! :D
steel town se India 137 Km k distance pa ha aur karachi se 157 Km dor aur Landhi se 148 Km gulshan-e-iqbal se 155 Km..
when will it rain in khi…???
karachi metro….at what time and how much!!!!
As of now the thunderstorms are in developing stage…so once that happens its going to rain… That process is taking time, should have done that this morning..
ohk thts kool :D
Winds now NW in Karachi…
so does this mean that storm is on it’s way here?
Storm had its influence on Karachi since yesterday….but thunderstorms are not finding conditions suitable yet to pop up…
so if they don’t find any suitable conditions to pop up what will happen?
They will dissipate…
NOOOOO :(
what are the conditions needed for them to pop up?
so Babar as u r sayin winds r from NW and they r in developing stage, r these suitable conditions for thunderstorm now, can we make guess for how long it will take?
@Sam and Mahmud
Thunderstorms require 3 basic things: conditionally unstable air, heat and moisture. Its heat that is lacking and air is some what stable thats why forecasts are being shifted one day ahead.. Westerlies are also playing its role in causing the ex-low to weaken..Thats why they are in developing stages could transform into a mature thunderstorm when conditions become fair..
TV channels are now saying having rains in karachi expected in next 24 hrs
15 min baad karachi mai bi barish hogi
phone aaya tha?
Lightning from the East :D
KARACHI METRO a storm can gain heat during the day but when can it gain unstable air?
@KM :
Latest updates ?
Lightning has stopped n0w and wind has started bl0wing fr0m SW again. LoL
no rain in Khi.
1st spell is expected to end after july 26th evening but the good thing is that it hasn’t even started yet. lol
KM please update us about the 2nd spell of moonson rains in karachi.
When the 2nd spell of rains would going to be start?
2nd monsoon spell will commence on 31st december……… so be ready with pakoras and samosas for new years eve :P