Pakistan Weather Update & Monsoon alert (July 21 – July 28)

Time for waiting is over now!

Waiting game is over for Karachi!

Heat wave takes 4 lives in Sindh – death toll rises to 40

Background

This week had been a little quiet in terms of  monsoon showers as no weather system has approached any part of the country, most weather system are dieing before entering Pakistan except for monsoon moisture which has been interacting with western troughs to enhance monsoon activity. Temperatures had increased in the country as forecasted by PWP. High humidity has also rised. Overall these are some things that have been observed during this week. Whats ahead?

Temperature – outlook

Temperature: July 21 till July 28

Overall the temperatures will be high in almost all parts of the country except Karachi and coastal Sindh due to fast winds. In parts of Upper Sindh and southern Punjab temperatures will hover around 45°C till next 2 to 3 days, then a decrease is expected. In Punjab and Khyber too, temperatures will decrease in next 2 to 3 days. Following is the expected temperature forecast (Forecast valid till 3 days), after that a decrease is very likely;

  • 43 °C to 45 °C in Sukkur.
  • 39 °C to 44 °C also in Larkana.
  • 43 °C to 44 °C in Nawabshah.
  • 38 °C to 40 °C in Hyderabad.
  • 31 °C to 35 °C in Karachi. (Not likely to change)
  • 42 °C to 45 °C in Lahore.
  • 38 °C to 40 °C in Islamabad.
  • 40 °C to 44°C in Multan.
  • 40 °C to 44°C in Faisalabad.
  • 38 °C to 40 °C in Peshawar.

People of upper Sindh and southern Punjab should take precautions till 2 to 3 days and avoid unnecessary outdoor activities, as on July 20, at least 4 people were killed in Jamshoro, Sindh due to intense heat waves. The death toll has now reached 40 in Pakistan, all these deaths were weather-related from heat wave to rainstorms to floods since June 25.

Monsoon update 2011

Much awaited rains are here!!

Low pressure over Madya Pradesh

Pakistan to be covered with monsoon!

India

The soul of monsoon is unusually very quiet that is Bay of Bengal. The Bay usually produces low pressures or depressions that enhance monsoon activity but so far it is failed to do so. While the Arabian sea is doing all it could to keep monsoon alive, strong cross-equatorial flows over Arabian sea that along with trough from Maharashtra coast to Kerala coast, is bring heavy to very heavy rainfall to this part of India. But others are not so lucky.

Pakistan

Monsoon had covered Punjab, Khyber, Kashmir, North-eastern Balochistan and upper Sindh except for south-eastern and coastal Sindh, which are desperately waiting and are thirsty for first drop of rain. But as they that Patience is bitter, but its fruit is sweet, maybe that is true!

So Karachiites, it seems as if your waiting game is finally over as monsoon rainfall is expected.

Pakistan Weather Portal (PWP)’s forecast

Note: This is the forecast of Pakistan Weather Portal (PWP), we are 75% confident with this prediction. There will be slight variations in our forecast as certain meteorological factors develop and fade as time passes by and these factors are too isolated to be noticed on models, so if any change arises then PWP will update you.

PWP's weather forecast for July 24 night till July 25 night

Pakistan Weather Portal (PWP) had earlier forecasted that monsoon may hit Karachi on July 15 but PWP later revised their forecast and said;

“High chances of monsoon hitting Karachi late this month.”

Now PWP upgrades that forecast to “very high”, at least 48 hours have passed but that forecast has not changed and we are confident that monsoon will cover while monsoon regions of Pakistan on July 24 mid-day. On July 23, PWP upgraded its monsoon forecast for Karachi from “very high” to “extremely high”, we are confident that monsoon will hit south-eastern Sindh and Karachi in 36 to 48 hours.

Fresh monsoon rainfalls are likely in almost all parts of monsoon belt of Pakistan during late this month that is from July 23 night. The monsoon belt of Pakistan include Islamabad, Punjab, eastern Khyber, north-eastern Balochistan, Kashmir and Sindh including Karachi other regions that is rest of Balochistan, FATA, rest of Khyber and Giglit are non-monsoon regions.

Low pressure can be seen as of July 21

As of 5:30 pm PST July 21, various models are indicating that the upper air cyclonic circulations over the Bay of Bengal that  would cross West Bengal province and gain intensity into a low pressure area (happened as of July 21). The system would approach Madya Pradesh where it may lose intensity and become a UAC from here it will start its journey to south-eastern Sindh, while moving it will lose its intensity but it will send strong monsoon moisture to upper parts of Pakistan with strong currents from Arabian sea. The UAC will approach Sindh by July 24/25 by that time the system will be highly sheared and it will tear into different parts of thunderstorms and eventually dissipating over the Arabian sea. Few of its thunderstorms will also reach as far as Oman.

As of 6:00 pm PST July 23, the western trough, Arabian sea’s moisture and low’s moisture is likely to interact over Upper Pakistan. The low rapidly intensified into a depression on July 22 over Jharkhand and moved from Jharkhand to Utter Pradesh to Madya Pradesh (The track as forecasted by PWP on July 21). On July 23, the depression weakened into a well-marked low over North Madya Pradesh. According to latest forecast, the system has moved towards western Madya Pradesh and adjoining Rajasthan and Gujarat. The system will weaken rapidly before coming to Sindh (maybe a UAC or remnant low, as forecasted earlier by PWP), the system will reach Sindh by between July 24 and July 25, it will be in dissipating stages at that time. Few of its moisture could reach Oman as well. Following is the forecast in detail for Islamabad, Punjab and Sindh;

Islamabad

The 4th spell of monsoon will begin from July 23 night and continue till 3 to 4 days, till July 27 mid-day. Rain will be accompanied by fast to strong winds and thunder, it will be moderate in intensity with isolated heavy falls to isolated very heavy falls.

Punjab

In Northern Punjab: Lahore, Faisalabad, Murree, Rawalpindi, Sargodha, Sialkot and other adjoining cities. The 4th spell will begin from July 23 night and will continue till July 27 mid-day, and decrease thereafter . Rain will be accompanied by fast to strong winds and thunder, it will be moderate in intensity with isolated heavy falls to isolated very heavy falls.

In Southern Punjab: Bahawalpur, Multan, Rahim Yar Khan, D. G. Khan and other adjoining cities. The 4th spell will start from July 24 night and continue till July 25 night, and decrease thereafter.  Rain will be accompanied by winds and thunder, it will be moderate in intensity with moderate falls likely.

Sindh

Rain forecast: July 21 till July 28

In Upper Sindh: Sukkur, Larkana, Jacobabad, Kashmore and other adjoining  cities. The 3rd spell will begin from July 24 mid-day an continue till July 25 night, and decrease thereafter. Rain will be accompanied by fast winds and thunder, it will be moderate in intensity with few isolated heavy falls, but mostly scattered moderate falls likely here too.

In South-eastern Sindh: Mirpur khas, Umerkot, Tharparkar, Badin and Hyderabad. The 1st monsoon spell will begin from July 24 mid-day and continue till July 25 late night, and decrease thereafter. Rain will be accompanied by gusty winds and thunder, it will be moderate in intensity with isolated heavy falls.

In coastal Sindh: Karachi, Thatta, Keti, Shah Bandar and other coastal localities. The 1st monsoon spell will begin from July 24 mid-day and continue till July 25 late night, and decrease thereafter. Rain will be accompanied by fast winds and thunder, it will be moderate in intensity with isolated heavy falls, but mostly scattered moderate falls likely here as well.

Overall monsoon will cover all the monsoon regions of Pakistan and it is very likely that monsoon regions of Pakistan will be covered completely by monsoon on July 24 mid-day.

Poll of the week

Pakistan Weather Portal (PWP) wants to know how confident are it’s readers from Karachi, it would be better if Karachiites also comment about what they have voted for us to see the majority and different moods of Karachi;

801 replies to “Pakistan Weather Update & Monsoon alert (July 21 – July 28)”

  1. 7 drizzles have occurred in Karachi till July 23 since June 1
    1 june
    14 june
    22 jne
    3 july
    13 july
    July 20
    July 23
    All of them were traces..

  2. Intellicast and weather.com showing that sct T-storms will start in Karachi from 9-pm.

  3. There are no clouds coming from SW.
    Clouds are coming from NE (Cirrus Clouds).
    It was humid weather in the morning and early afternoon, n0w it’s a little windy.

  12. Karachi metro,,, when rain will start in karachi today,tonight????
    reply….i’m waiting!

  13. i don’t see clouds coming from the NE all i see is clouds coming from the arabian sea :/

  15. Lol sam those are not arabian sea clouds thos are cirrus and alto cumulus clouds (high level clouds) give them a look, you can bearly see them moving.

  16. Yes, intellicast and weather.com showing T-storms (80% precipitation) for both 25th and 26th of july.

  19. Hmmm yesterday I was the only one informing about weakening of low pressure and mass of people giving me thumbs down :)

    KM’s recent post showing now which I was talking about yesterday.

    UPDATE: Few chances of drizzle in Karachi on Monday and no heavy rain till mid August.

  21. danish bhai apna blog bana looo… update dene k lye KM bhai kaafi hain :P:P:P

  22. Forget Rains Now…..
    since 2nd June we Karachites were waiting for rains…..
    luck blessed us with a single system of Rains, and unfortunately that system died before reaching Karachi :( who can argue with the nature :(
    Waiting Game is Finally over :'(

  23. km will u tell me about rainy clouds? which clouds are rainy… u mention autocumulus and cumulus and other categories

  33. Cumulus humilis clouds that were coming from SW are n0w gone and there are only Altocumulus Castellanus clouds covering the whole sky (NE direction clouds), the wind has also sudenly st0pped bl0wing, i think something is on it’s wAy to Karachi :D

  37. Karachi metro sir i want to know information aboit larkana city kunke sunday ko yahan batish honi thi apnei kaha tha lekin abi tak khali clouds aarahein hei barish nai so can you plz help me oit when will rain occur here in larkana aur heavy rainfall.hoga yeh esy lite rain jst

  38. “The appearance of Altocumulus Castellanus early in a sunny day may indicate a high probability the formation of thunderstorms in the afternoon, as they may develop into cumulonimbus storm clouds.”

    Hmmm……okay maybe there is some hope

  40. I have been seeing clouds since i was 4 years old.
    thats h0w i can differentiate and The SW clouds are l0w laying and they move pretty fast.

  41. actocumulus,cumulus,nimbus,cirrus,cirrocumulus,cirrostratus,stratus,nimbostratus etc are all types of CUMULONIMBUS clouds and they can turn into cumulonimbus clouds.

  42. Enough for to day no rain to day get sleep tight and ready for fun for 2marow. Hope no rain 2marow also.

    BBC…… say whatever cloud it is not going to rain..:)

  43. @km
    can u tell that when will rain start today and when will 2nd monsoon rainfall begin in karachi >??????

  44. :(:( any update km…. eid k chand ki tarhan ate hain km bhai or chale jate hain… kamazkam aaj k din to full update kerte raho bhai

  46. HUH! ?? are u guys nuts ? :S who said its not going to rain this time ? :/ … IR image clearly showing thunder cells moving in as i posted earlier it was near indo-pak border in morning =p

      1. its still their , open u eyes and see it … if it not in blue mirror doesn’t meant its dead or gone / moisture is still present their and moving in @ a slow pace

      2. i wonder why u cant see it , cuz u can differentiate btw clouds and rain cloud when u were only 4 years old … TSK TSK TSK !!!! savage skies ki documentary wapas dekhlo … u have skipped many things …

    1. U stupid, when did i said that it’s gone ?? Idoit.
      I just wanted a link bc0z pakmet isn’t updating their satellite image.
      negative mtlab nai nikala kro ksi ki baat ka n00b :/

  48. yaar pakmet ka image kyun update nahin horaha 5:32 k baad abi tak update nahin hoa :@ :@ :@ :x:x:X

    1. sat update ka budget khatam hogaya hay… pak met ka…. and Jackie uncle is actualy KM with different name…. this the blog tactic ..

  55. in larkana right now wind is stopped. too hot right now. i think its sign of rain.! what abt karachi?

  59. i can see rainfalls on 26th as well … as predicted earlier just got new intel from windfams things are stable for prepcast ..

  60. guyz its raining in mirpurkhaas wowwwww….. monsoon hits mid sindh that is mirpurkhas…. i have just seen in news aaaj breaking news

    1. Zulfi bahi which area do you live i want to rent a flat or house …. Thanks

  65. Karachi metro sir i want to know information about larkana city kunke sunday ko yahan barish honi thi apnei kaha tha lekin abi tak khali clouds aarahein hei barish nai so can you plz help me oit when will rain occur here in larkana aur heavy rainfall.hoga yeh esy lite rain jst

  66. Daily downpours in punjab and Karachi long awaits for heavy monsoon rains is continue still

  71. KM Bhai sath rho ap abhi plz bht kuch puchna ha :S PMD bhi apni sat. image update nai kr rhi n00b :@:@:@
    yAr i’m seeing on every weather website, they’re sh0wing no change in wind direction as winds are expected to blew from SW and in monsoon of 2010, wind was bl0wing from SW mostly and its n0t neccessory for the wind to bl0w from NE or E f0r rains is it ?

      1. Yeah they did but wind wAs bl0wing fr0m SW or WSW m0stly.
        NE wind bl0ws when rain is just about to start, am i right ?

  73. i’m just seeing altocumulus clouds since july 23rd m0rning till n0w, they’re n0t changing into cumulonimbus rain clouds :( just fair weather altocumulus clouds.

  75. At 8:30 AM, I saw some pieces of grey nimbus clouds which were a sign of rain and i thought that rain is just around the corner but n0w they’re g0ne and the altocumulus clouds are also going.

  76. Whenever I see sat. image, there is a small piece of cloud over Lah0re and Islamabad that causes heavy rainfall but here even a big system w0n’t give a single dr0p of rain. i think ALLAh is dissapointed fr0m the Karachiites.

  77. @KM :

    Plz give me a sat. image i want to see the current conditions :(

    PMD isn’t updating their sat. image :@:@:@

  79. Allah(SWT) must be punishing us becuz of all the bloodshed n violence going on in karachi…..

  81. @KM stop creating confusions, rain clouds passed away from Karachi, I am telling you all this since yesterday. Stop waiting for rain and get back to work.

    1. Only GOD knows well, we all can only be able to predict on basis of our past experience and judgement.

  86. yaar mirpur khas ko baarish milgaye magar hum becharay karachiities ko kuch bhi nahi mil raha :(

    1. no sam Mirpurkhas m sirf kal raat ko light rain means boonda baandi hui hai.our abhi bht bht habs hai our aasman saaf hai our sooraj aag barsa rha hai….

  87. Assalam o Alaikum,
    Dear Km, i feel that bay of bengal is very active now and producing some heavy systems whats ur opinion abt Arb and BOB conditions???

  90. @Everyone KM is not the weather contractor who can bring rain at your demands, he can just make predication on the basis of his experience and current weather phenomena.

    ATM there is no wind blowing in the city which is making weather even more hotter and as far as rain is concerned there are slight chances between 1600-1700 hours today.

  93. Babar Bhai is Right…. chances of thundershowers in karachi today anytime…
    and weather can’t be predicted 100% accurate. without God’s will not even a single drop of rain can fall over the land.No matter if there are heavy clouds even.
    as Babar Bhai said before “people who dont like it can leave the blog peacefully…”

    do leave else PWP will leave you :p

  96. the foreca weather software on my mobile is saying clouds still haven’t reached karachi :/

  99. @km
    can u tell that when will rain start today and when will 2nd monsoon rainfall begin in karachi >??????

  100. babar bhai it was forecasted to be rainy day but right now its sunny with humid conditionsss :( when will it rain????

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