Pakistan Weather Update & Monsoon alert (July 21 – July 28)

Time for waiting is over now!

Waiting game is over for Karachi!

Heat wave takes 4 lives in Sindh – death toll rises to 40

Background

This week had been a little quiet in terms of  monsoon showers as no weather system has approached any part of the country, most weather system are dieing before entering Pakistan except for monsoon moisture which has been interacting with western troughs to enhance monsoon activity. Temperatures had increased in the country as forecasted by PWP. High humidity has also rised. Overall these are some things that have been observed during this week. Whats ahead?

Temperature – outlook

Temperature: July 21 till July 28

Overall the temperatures will be high in almost all parts of the country except Karachi and coastal Sindh due to fast winds. In parts of Upper Sindh and southern Punjab temperatures will hover around 45°C till next 2 to 3 days, then a decrease is expected. In Punjab and Khyber too, temperatures will decrease in next 2 to 3 days. Following is the expected temperature forecast (Forecast valid till 3 days), after that a decrease is very likely;

  • 43 °C to 45 °C in Sukkur.
  • 39 °C to 44 °C also in Larkana.
  • 43 °C to 44 °C in Nawabshah.
  • 38 °C to 40 °C in Hyderabad.
  • 31 °C to 35 °C in Karachi. (Not likely to change)
  • 42 °C to 45 °C in Lahore.
  • 38 °C to 40 °C in Islamabad.
  • 40 °C to 44°C in Multan.
  • 40 °C to 44°C in Faisalabad.
  • 38 °C to 40 °C in Peshawar.

People of upper Sindh and southern Punjab should take precautions till 2 to 3 days and avoid unnecessary outdoor activities, as on July 20, at least 4 people were killed in Jamshoro, Sindh due to intense heat waves. The death toll has now reached 40 in Pakistan, all these deaths were weather-related from heat wave to rainstorms to floods since June 25.

Monsoon update 2011

Much awaited rains are here!!

Low pressure over Madya Pradesh

Pakistan to be covered with monsoon!

India

The soul of monsoon is unusually very quiet that is Bay of Bengal. The Bay usually produces low pressures or depressions that enhance monsoon activity but so far it is failed to do so. While the Arabian sea is doing all it could to keep monsoon alive, strong cross-equatorial flows over Arabian sea that along with trough from Maharashtra coast to Kerala coast, is bring heavy to very heavy rainfall to this part of India. But others are not so lucky.

Pakistan

Monsoon had covered Punjab, Khyber, Kashmir, North-eastern Balochistan and upper Sindh except for south-eastern and coastal Sindh, which are desperately waiting and are thirsty for first drop of rain. But as they that Patience is bitter, but its fruit is sweet, maybe that is true!

So Karachiites, it seems as if your waiting game is finally over as monsoon rainfall is expected.

Pakistan Weather Portal (PWP)’s forecast

Note: This is the forecast of Pakistan Weather Portal (PWP), we are 75% confident with this prediction. There will be slight variations in our forecast as certain meteorological factors develop and fade as time passes by and these factors are too isolated to be noticed on models, so if any change arises then PWP will update you.

PWP's weather forecast for July 24 night till July 25 night

Pakistan Weather Portal (PWP) had earlier forecasted that monsoon may hit Karachi on July 15 but PWP later revised their forecast and said;

“High chances of monsoon hitting Karachi late this month.”

Now PWP upgrades that forecast to “very high”, at least 48 hours have passed but that forecast has not changed and we are confident that monsoon will cover while monsoon regions of Pakistan on July 24 mid-day. On July 23, PWP upgraded its monsoon forecast for Karachi from “very high” to “extremely high”, we are confident that monsoon will hit south-eastern Sindh and Karachi in 36 to 48 hours.

Fresh monsoon rainfalls are likely in almost all parts of monsoon belt of Pakistan during late this month that is from July 23 night. The monsoon belt of Pakistan include Islamabad, Punjab, eastern Khyber, north-eastern Balochistan, Kashmir and Sindh including Karachi other regions that is rest of Balochistan, FATA, rest of Khyber and Giglit are non-monsoon regions.

Low pressure can be seen as of July 21

As of 5:30 pm PST July 21, various models are indicating that the upper air cyclonic circulations over the Bay of Bengal that  would cross West Bengal province and gain intensity into a low pressure area (happened as of July 21). The system would approach Madya Pradesh where it may lose intensity and become a UAC from here it will start its journey to south-eastern Sindh, while moving it will lose its intensity but it will send strong monsoon moisture to upper parts of Pakistan with strong currents from Arabian sea. The UAC will approach Sindh by July 24/25 by that time the system will be highly sheared and it will tear into different parts of thunderstorms and eventually dissipating over the Arabian sea. Few of its thunderstorms will also reach as far as Oman.

As of 6:00 pm PST July 23, the western trough, Arabian sea’s moisture and low’s moisture is likely to interact over Upper Pakistan. The low rapidly intensified into a depression on July 22 over Jharkhand and moved from Jharkhand to Utter Pradesh to Madya Pradesh (The track as forecasted by PWP on July 21). On July 23, the depression weakened into a well-marked low over North Madya Pradesh. According to latest forecast, the system has moved towards western Madya Pradesh and adjoining Rajasthan and Gujarat. The system will weaken rapidly before coming to Sindh (maybe a UAC or remnant low, as forecasted earlier by PWP), the system will reach Sindh by between July 24 and July 25, it will be in dissipating stages at that time. Few of its moisture could reach Oman as well. Following is the forecast in detail for Islamabad, Punjab and Sindh;

Islamabad

The 4th spell of monsoon will begin from July 23 night and continue till 3 to 4 days, till July 27 mid-day. Rain will be accompanied by fast to strong winds and thunder, it will be moderate in intensity with isolated heavy falls to isolated very heavy falls.

Punjab

In Northern Punjab: Lahore, Faisalabad, Murree, Rawalpindi, Sargodha, Sialkot and other adjoining cities. The 4th spell will begin from July 23 night and will continue till July 27 mid-day, and decrease thereafter . Rain will be accompanied by fast to strong winds and thunder, it will be moderate in intensity with isolated heavy falls to isolated very heavy falls.

In Southern Punjab: Bahawalpur, Multan, Rahim Yar Khan, D. G. Khan and other adjoining cities. The 4th spell will start from July 24 night and continue till July 25 night, and decrease thereafter.  Rain will be accompanied by winds and thunder, it will be moderate in intensity with moderate falls likely.

Sindh

Rain forecast: July 21 till July 28

In Upper Sindh: Sukkur, Larkana, Jacobabad, Kashmore and other adjoining  cities. The 3rd spell will begin from July 24 mid-day an continue till July 25 night, and decrease thereafter. Rain will be accompanied by fast winds and thunder, it will be moderate in intensity with few isolated heavy falls, but mostly scattered moderate falls likely here too.

In South-eastern Sindh: Mirpur khas, Umerkot, Tharparkar, Badin and Hyderabad. The 1st monsoon spell will begin from July 24 mid-day and continue till July 25 late night, and decrease thereafter. Rain will be accompanied by gusty winds and thunder, it will be moderate in intensity with isolated heavy falls.

In coastal Sindh: Karachi, Thatta, Keti, Shah Bandar and other coastal localities. The 1st monsoon spell will begin from July 24 mid-day and continue till July 25 late night, and decrease thereafter. Rain will be accompanied by fast winds and thunder, it will be moderate in intensity with isolated heavy falls, but mostly scattered moderate falls likely here as well.

Overall monsoon will cover all the monsoon regions of Pakistan and it is very likely that monsoon regions of Pakistan will be covered completely by monsoon on July 24 mid-day.

Poll of the week

Pakistan Weather Portal (PWP) wants to know how confident are it’s readers from Karachi, it would be better if Karachiites also comment about what they have voted for us to see the majority and different moods of Karachi;

801 replies to “Pakistan Weather Update & Monsoon alert (July 21 – July 28)”

  1. As par current the weather conditions , chances of rain is 0% in karachi.
    Weather prediction by BBC is 100% accurate.
    Gusty winds are now blowing from west, which is a clear indication of NO rain.

  2. Karachi mein chahay forecast ho ya na ho magar barish kabhe nahi hoti. Sirf karachi kay saath hai aisa kyon hota hai? Punjab mein chahay forecast ho ya na ho magar heavy rains hamesha hoti hai. Yeh baat samjah say balatar hai.Kya wajah hai?

  3. i think there is a chance of rain, CUMULONIMBUS cloud is visible in the Eastern direction. Go and check

  4. @Tarim
    Sir can you elaborate the term “system”, which is going towards Oman.

  5. @ All their will be no rain till August . System is near Oman now and weather is all clear except few clouds.

  6. @Tarim, those are no rainy clouds beside gusty winds from WSW have started blowing again which were stopped in the morning.so chances are very very limited to 0%.

  9. A suddun change in RH% and Dew point see below data or go to below link

    Time (PKT) 2:00 PM 2:30 PM
    Temp. 35.0 °C 35.0 °C
    Heat Index 43.2 °C –
    Dew Point 25.0 °C 2.0 °C
    Humidity 56% 12%
    Pressure 1000 hPa 1006 hPa
    Visibility 7.0 km 7.0 km
    Wind Dir WSW West
    Wind Speed 18.5 km/h / 5.1 m/s 14.8 km/h / 4.1 m/s
    Gust Speed – –
    Precip N/A N/A
    Events
    Conditions Scattered Clouds Scattered Clouds

    http://www.wunderground.com/history/airport/OPKC/2011/7/25/DailyHistory.html?req_city=NA&req_state=NA&req_statename=NA

  11. CUMULONIMBUS clouds are coming from NE inshallah it will be rain…very light wind is blowing from west and NE….

  12. Bhai kisne bola wind west se chalrhi hai east se gust aarhe hain and subha altocucmulus clouds were somewhat still but now they are approaching with fast speed from east

  18. @tarim and owais hyder
    are cumulonimbus clouds dark in colour ?? ???
    cuz there are no clouds in our area :(
    just clear sky :s

  22. g0ne g0ne g0ne g0ne g0ne g0ne g0ne Clouds are g0ne :@:@:@:@:@:@:@:@:@:@:@
    n0 m0re rain and n0w :@:@:@:@:@:@:@:@:@:@:@:@
    stupid Karachi :@:@:@:@:@
    KM i think u should change monsoon status f0r Karachi fr0m extremely high to extremely slim.

  25. If you wait or think for so long some time illusion come in mind and it called physiological break down or Chemical Locha like Munna bahi…. . 
    Our beloved friends are passing such critical stage I urge pray for their health.

  26. cumulonimbus clouds came and i thought that n0w it’s time f0r rain but after s0me time i checked the sky n0thing was there :@:@:@:@:@

  30. I came to know now that some afghani kachra chunne wale kids were burning trash these black cumolonimbus clouds were from that trash smoke :P

  31. jab experts yahan behte howe 0% chance of rain bata rahe hain to phir weather.com walon ne kin bhagoron ko employee rakha hoa hai k saale 80% chance of rain dekha rahe hain…………. bhai experts do apply on weather.com

  32. :S:S:S we’re educated enough to differentiate between cumulonimbus clouds and trash sm0ke :S cumulonimbus are very high level clouds and you can bearly see them m0ving. This conditi0n doesn’t apply to trash sm0ke i think :p

  34. so interesting discussion, mayri tu hansi he nai ruk rak rahee @ trash smoke and afghanis kids

  40. yaar 2007 ka toofaaan yaad araha hai us main east se kia black clouds aye te phir toofaan phr baarish……… full package ta all in one….. un rains se pehle bhi aisa hi mosam hota taaa garmi or jhis ka

    1. Yaar dont lose hpe wind is still blowing in from east and more clouds are coming these broken clouds are the initial ones before a thunderstorm wait and see

  42. usual wind har started bl0wing and clouds are n0w going.
    Happy No-Rainy day Karachiites :)

  43. abhi to clouds waise hi bhaag rahe hain jaise km bhai blog se bhagte hain :P :P :P

  44. BREAKING NEWS :

    Islamabad, Lahore aur Rawalpindi me waqfe waqfe se barish, mausam khushgawar. Karachi me waqfe waqfe se firing, mausam khaufzada :)

  45. 2007 ka t20 worldcup final yaad agaya jab MISBAH ne bekaar shot khel k hamara dil tora ta jeet k kareeb aa k….. isi tarhan baadal bhi dil tor rahe hain hamarra :( paas aaa aaa k jaa rahe hain :P
    jab rulana hi taaa mujhe
    to phir hansaya kyun :P

  47. Chalo chalo sab Izlooo xhalooooo, lahore challoooo, train or plane ki booking karwaoooo

  49. KM does not have any idea about Rain..that’s why hje ran away from Metro….search him where he is ??

  50. Some people don’t know about weather system, where they see clouds they suppose that the weather system is there. First come up with definition and then comment.

  55. According to you system is moving towards oman while it didn’t cross indo-pak border.

  57. Clouds that are covering Karachi are cirrus clouds, the weakest form of cumulonimbus clouds.

  60. breaking news on geo sindh main ainda 24 sai 36 hrs main mosla dhar barishon ka imkan.khi main bhi mosla dhar barishon ka imkan

    1. Babar mian Babar mian kahan gaye ???? …. its raining cats and dogs in our area i caught 2 cats and 1 dog

  63. most of them over here hav non-serious attitude….kio dein gey woh koi comments?

    2. haan over here too kaali ghata aaing rain is around the corner be prepared with your pakoras and samosas

  79. @EVERY BODY
    Various models including GFS running as of 7:40 pm PST show that chances of rainfall in Karachi would last till July 26 evening/night, after that a long dry break expected.

    1. Lucky Badin.. I guess Karachiest gonn enjoy only bathroom showers this year Hhahaha

  85. steel town india kai zayada qareeb hai is liye ho sakta hai yahan jaldi barish ho jai

  87. steel town se India 137 Km k distance pa ha aur karachi se 157 Km dor aur Landhi se 148 Km gulshan-e-iqbal se 155 Km..

    1. As of now the thunderstorms are in developing stage…so once that happens its going to rain… That process is taking time, should have done that this morning..

  92. so Babar as u r sayin winds r from NW and they r in developing stage, r these suitable conditions for thunderstorm now, can we make guess for how long it will take?

    1. @Sam and Mahmud
      Thunderstorms require 3 basic things: conditionally unstable air, heat and moisture. Its heat that is lacking and air is some what stable thats why forecasts are being shifted one day ahead.. Westerlies are also playing its role in causing the ex-low to weaken..Thats why they are in developing stages could transform into a mature thunderstorm when conditions become fair..

  96. KARACHI METRO a storm can gain heat during the day but when can it gain unstable air?

  98. Lightning has stopped n0w and wind has started bl0wing fr0m SW again. LoL
    no rain in Khi.

  99. 1st spell is expected to end after july 26th evening but the good thing is that it hasn’t even started yet. lol

  100. KM please update us about the 2nd spell of moonson rains in karachi.
    When the 2nd spell of rains would going to be start?

    1. 2nd monsoon spell will commence on 31st december……… so be ready with pakoras and samosas for new years eve :P

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