Pakistan Weather Update & Monsoon alert (July 21 – July 28)

Time for waiting is over now!

Waiting game is over for Karachi!

Heat wave takes 4 lives in Sindh – death toll rises to 40

Background

This week had been a little quiet in terms of  monsoon showers as no weather system has approached any part of the country, most weather system are dieing before entering Pakistan except for monsoon moisture which has been interacting with western troughs to enhance monsoon activity. Temperatures had increased in the country as forecasted by PWP. High humidity has also rised. Overall these are some things that have been observed during this week. Whats ahead?

Temperature – outlook

Temperature: July 21 till July 28

Overall the temperatures will be high in almost all parts of the country except Karachi and coastal Sindh due to fast winds. In parts of Upper Sindh and southern Punjab temperatures will hover around 45°C till next 2 to 3 days, then a decrease is expected. In Punjab and Khyber too, temperatures will decrease in next 2 to 3 days. Following is the expected temperature forecast (Forecast valid till 3 days), after that a decrease is very likely;

  • 43 °C to 45 °C in Sukkur.
  • 39 °C to 44 °C also in Larkana.
  • 43 °C to 44 °C in Nawabshah.
  • 38 °C to 40 °C in Hyderabad.
  • 31 °C to 35 °C in Karachi. (Not likely to change)
  • 42 °C to 45 °C in Lahore.
  • 38 °C to 40 °C in Islamabad.
  • 40 °C to 44°C in Multan.
  • 40 °C to 44°C in Faisalabad.
  • 38 °C to 40 °C in Peshawar.

People of upper Sindh and southern Punjab should take precautions till 2 to 3 days and avoid unnecessary outdoor activities, as on July 20, at least 4 people were killed in Jamshoro, Sindh due to intense heat waves. The death toll has now reached 40 in Pakistan, all these deaths were weather-related from heat wave to rainstorms to floods since June 25.

Monsoon update 2011

Much awaited rains are here!!

Low pressure over Madya Pradesh

Pakistan to be covered with monsoon!

India

The soul of monsoon is unusually very quiet that is Bay of Bengal. The Bay usually produces low pressures or depressions that enhance monsoon activity but so far it is failed to do so. While the Arabian sea is doing all it could to keep monsoon alive, strong cross-equatorial flows over Arabian sea that along with trough from Maharashtra coast to Kerala coast, is bring heavy to very heavy rainfall to this part of India. But others are not so lucky.

Pakistan

Monsoon had covered Punjab, Khyber, Kashmir, North-eastern Balochistan and upper Sindh except for south-eastern and coastal Sindh, which are desperately waiting and are thirsty for first drop of rain. But as they that Patience is bitter, but its fruit is sweet, maybe that is true!

So Karachiites, it seems as if your waiting game is finally over as monsoon rainfall is expected.

Pakistan Weather Portal (PWP)’s forecast

Note: This is the forecast of Pakistan Weather Portal (PWP), we are 75% confident with this prediction. There will be slight variations in our forecast as certain meteorological factors develop and fade as time passes by and these factors are too isolated to be noticed on models, so if any change arises then PWP will update you.

PWP's weather forecast for July 24 night till July 25 night

Pakistan Weather Portal (PWP) had earlier forecasted that monsoon may hit Karachi on July 15 but PWP later revised their forecast and said;

“High chances of monsoon hitting Karachi late this month.”

Now PWP upgrades that forecast to “very high”, at least 48 hours have passed but that forecast has not changed and we are confident that monsoon will cover while monsoon regions of Pakistan on July 24 mid-day. On July 23, PWP upgraded its monsoon forecast for Karachi from “very high” to “extremely high”, we are confident that monsoon will hit south-eastern Sindh and Karachi in 36 to 48 hours.

Fresh monsoon rainfalls are likely in almost all parts of monsoon belt of Pakistan during late this month that is from July 23 night. The monsoon belt of Pakistan include Islamabad, Punjab, eastern Khyber, north-eastern Balochistan, Kashmir and Sindh including Karachi other regions that is rest of Balochistan, FATA, rest of Khyber and Giglit are non-monsoon regions.

Low pressure can be seen as of July 21

As of 5:30 pm PST July 21, various models are indicating that the upper air cyclonic circulations over the Bay of Bengal that  would cross West Bengal province and gain intensity into a low pressure area (happened as of July 21). The system would approach Madya Pradesh where it may lose intensity and become a UAC from here it will start its journey to south-eastern Sindh, while moving it will lose its intensity but it will send strong monsoon moisture to upper parts of Pakistan with strong currents from Arabian sea. The UAC will approach Sindh by July 24/25 by that time the system will be highly sheared and it will tear into different parts of thunderstorms and eventually dissipating over the Arabian sea. Few of its thunderstorms will also reach as far as Oman.

As of 6:00 pm PST July 23, the western trough, Arabian sea’s moisture and low’s moisture is likely to interact over Upper Pakistan. The low rapidly intensified into a depression on July 22 over Jharkhand and moved from Jharkhand to Utter Pradesh to Madya Pradesh (The track as forecasted by PWP on July 21). On July 23, the depression weakened into a well-marked low over North Madya Pradesh. According to latest forecast, the system has moved towards western Madya Pradesh and adjoining Rajasthan and Gujarat. The system will weaken rapidly before coming to Sindh (maybe a UAC or remnant low, as forecasted earlier by PWP), the system will reach Sindh by between July 24 and July 25, it will be in dissipating stages at that time. Few of its moisture could reach Oman as well. Following is the forecast in detail for Islamabad, Punjab and Sindh;

Islamabad

The 4th spell of monsoon will begin from July 23 night and continue till 3 to 4 days, till July 27 mid-day. Rain will be accompanied by fast to strong winds and thunder, it will be moderate in intensity with isolated heavy falls to isolated very heavy falls.

Punjab

In Northern Punjab: Lahore, Faisalabad, Murree, Rawalpindi, Sargodha, Sialkot and other adjoining cities. The 4th spell will begin from July 23 night and will continue till July 27 mid-day, and decrease thereafter . Rain will be accompanied by fast to strong winds and thunder, it will be moderate in intensity with isolated heavy falls to isolated very heavy falls.

In Southern Punjab: Bahawalpur, Multan, Rahim Yar Khan, D. G. Khan and other adjoining cities. The 4th spell will start from July 24 night and continue till July 25 night, and decrease thereafter.  Rain will be accompanied by winds and thunder, it will be moderate in intensity with moderate falls likely.

Sindh

Rain forecast: July 21 till July 28

In Upper Sindh: Sukkur, Larkana, Jacobabad, Kashmore and other adjoining  cities. The 3rd spell will begin from July 24 mid-day an continue till July 25 night, and decrease thereafter. Rain will be accompanied by fast winds and thunder, it will be moderate in intensity with few isolated heavy falls, but mostly scattered moderate falls likely here too.

In South-eastern Sindh: Mirpur khas, Umerkot, Tharparkar, Badin and Hyderabad. The 1st monsoon spell will begin from July 24 mid-day and continue till July 25 late night, and decrease thereafter. Rain will be accompanied by gusty winds and thunder, it will be moderate in intensity with isolated heavy falls.

In coastal Sindh: Karachi, Thatta, Keti, Shah Bandar and other coastal localities. The 1st monsoon spell will begin from July 24 mid-day and continue till July 25 late night, and decrease thereafter. Rain will be accompanied by fast winds and thunder, it will be moderate in intensity with isolated heavy falls, but mostly scattered moderate falls likely here as well.

Overall monsoon will cover all the monsoon regions of Pakistan and it is very likely that monsoon regions of Pakistan will be covered completely by monsoon on July 24 mid-day.

Poll of the week

Pakistan Weather Portal (PWP) wants to know how confident are it’s readers from Karachi, it would be better if Karachiites also comment about what they have voted for us to see the majority and different moods of Karachi;

801 replies to “Pakistan Weather Update & Monsoon alert (July 21 – July 28)”

  7. according to accuweather its eainung in khi with lightning…khi main kahan ho rahi hai barish…..?

  10. wth is this , where the hell its raining ? :S

    Karachi, PK (Airport)
    Updated: 18 min 1 sec ago
    Thunderstorm
    30 °C
    Thunderstorm

    must be @ airport i guess :/

  12. no their must be rains @ airport , i’ve seen it many times rains must come in a while i guess …

  15. yaaar ab sky pe clouds hain? mujhe pata nhin chal raha koi mujhe batlde yaar

  16. their is huge white blotch on IR image , but its simply not raining … can’t believe its actually happening :/

  17. only white and some grey cloud…but no rain….!
    many weather site shows raining but no rain…..!

  23. yaahan to clouds bhi hain or abhi bhi aisa lag raha hai k barish dubara ho gi,humidity buhut hai or wind is also not blowing

  27. Intellicast sh0wing 90% chance of rain t0day…..f0recast f0r Karachi is being shifted 1day ahead, it means that thunderstorms are just n0t finding suitable c0nditions to develope just like Babar bhai said. When they do, there willl be rain.

  29. yaar karachi metro plz aap eid ka chand banaa band karde n plz tell us if it will rain or not

  32. winds are from NNE , i wonder wats the scene now … BC PMD is not updating windflags :/ …

  34. Jackie kahan yaar. winds are still blowing from west. BC west winds are the main cause for no thunder…huh

    1. I doubt mate , hope ur predications aren’t based upon local authorities intel … is it ?

  37. WUG updated to winds from South @ 4km … damn i think that white blotch is going to by pass in afternoon or the moisture is going to spawn a new thunder core @ sindh … argh this is annoying …

  38. KM, ur update is wrong, winds are blowing from SW, there is a flag of PPP infornt of my home ,which is showing the wind direction.

  39. it feel like indians are doing some cloud seeding , things are changing so fast everyone is puzzled :@

    @ bebii : ur compass is kharaab , winds are blowsing from South only lol

    1. lolxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx,ture, wo flag b tu Zardari k hy, wrong he batana hy os ny…………….

  50. 1) intense Heat
    2) little bit wind blowing towars SW or sometime to NW
    3) Moisture level is increasing gradually…

    Karachi metro,these were the things u told…..
    but when will it rain and how much…… RPLY PLZ…..

  56. No rian will be for next 10 days. cloud system is over Oman see pak met sat image.

    :)

  61. WTF yesterday karachi was covered in thick slow moving clouds if it were gonna rain it would have rained 100-150mm easily but our cursed city … poor karachi lets migrate frm here karachi is not a place for rain lovers its a place most suitable for gun trotting maniacs bastards … i dnt think it’ll rain now as stupid useless SW clouds have returned humidity is bearable now wind is blowing

  62. just came back from outside, winds are blowing from west as i was saying since morning.
    and as per current condition the chances of rain is 0%.

  63. also high clouds are coming from west.
    Its very strange that the system had hit karachi and moved towards Oman without dropping a single drop on the city.

    1. yaar last here ki to baat hi chordo i’ll never forget that monsoon in my whole life secondly u can see the pressure was 996hpa and currently its 1002hpa way above the conditions needed for thundersotrms to pop up currently the heat index is favourable for thunderstorm development and its rising which is a good sign but moisture has reduced :S

  67. so what about rain….. when will it come…..
    u know more than us,karachi metro…….
    whn will it rain….. guys what is this!!!!!
    its not fair….
    karachi metro,any ideas or chance left….!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

  68. so why hyderabad is getting rain…without even giving single drop 2 karachi…karachi is more near than seaview….. it is not fair…!!!!!
    karachi metro….any chances…………!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

  69. okay……. chalo phir hyderabad chaltein hain… thanku 4 ur quick reply….. hope karachi gets rain today near 7:00….. thunderstorms….. pakmet images showing more clouds coming towards khi…

  73. 26th July and 27th July was a very gooday of rain in Karachi. spacialy 27th.

    hope rain will start here soon. some rain in HYD and wind in blowing there from East.

    current wind in KHI is WSW.

    2:30 PM Temp 34.0 °C, feel like 40.6 °C, dew p 24.0 °C, PH 56%, Atm Pr 1002 hPa, vis 6.0 km, winDr WSW, WinSp 29.6 km/h.

    1. thick black clouds have again started coming from east but they are scattered hopefully they form a shape of thundercloud inshALLAH soon

  75. any updates….. seeing large black clouds 4rm SE………low level clouds coming 4rm south…. wind blowing fast…. heat also lacking and no moisture……………

  76. yahan par bohat thandi hawa chalrhi hai from west plus the sky is covered with very dark clouds from east

    1. karachi metro what abt karachi as of now ????
      will karachi be seeing a thunderstorm today????
      plzzzzzzz repliii

  84. as soon as the clouds came intense firing started in different areas of the metropolis thats why the clouds have started vanishing from the sky gradually

  88. firing has started again :( Allah(SWT) must be disappointed with us for behaving like this :(

  90. OMG BOB is very active again, tons of clouds on our way.

    @KM Is it good sign for Karachi na ?

  93. Killing a single life kills the whole MANKIND but here…OMG
    These murderers are forgetting that one day they will die too.

    1. What is the latest?

      As IMD image 1430 hrs cloud is over HUB area and two cloud masses over HYD and JAM area.

  97. Good News for Everybodyyyyyy :D :D :D
    Dark Black clouds from North East :D
    for sure heavy rain in few hours :D
    i live at the airport side ;D

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