Widespread rainfall alert for Pakistan – Special Coverage!

The special coverage of “widespread rainfall alert” by the Pakistan Weather Portal (PWP) is over!

  • Flash/Urban flooding

  • Two strong eastern systems

  • One strong western trough

After experiencing a dull start to the monsoon of 2011, Pakistan is all set to get proper monsoon rainfalls that it used to get every year. Some parts of Pakistan had received above average rainfall while many parts faced below average rainfall. Early this year the United Nations (U.N) had published a report that suggested that probability of floods this year are high due to lack of construction in last year’s flood-hit regions, later a report from Oxfam international also reported the same things. But this year the monsoon rainfall were not active like last year mainly due to the lack of weather systems from the Bay of Bengal. Upper Pakistan has got showers due to the interaction between western troughs and monsoon moisture where as last year it was the interaction between strong western disturbance and a strong low pressure from the Bay of Bengal that created havoc in the country and later devastating floods sank 20% land of Pakistan. Now these same conditions are erupting as a strong low pressure is in making and a strong trough of western disturbance is over Afghanistan. Will history repeat itself? 

PWP upgraded its second monsoon forecast from ” very high” to “extremely high” in Sindh, PWP on July 29 forecasted monsoonal activity in Sindh in August. PWP upgrades third monsoon spell for Sindh from “moderate” to “high”, PWP forecasted the third spell on August 4.  Pakistan Weather Portal (PWP) is 75% confident with this forecast after observing different meteorological factors. But we may revise our third monsoon rainfall for Sindh.

Updates regarding Severe weather

PWP's map showing the track of two expected weather system

All the new updates will be issued below;

Update issued on August 10 at 7:00 pm PST – LAST UPDATE

Yesterday’s low pressure area is over South Rajasthan and adjoining North-western Gujarat, it will enter Sindh on August 10 late or August 11 morning, the low pressure may intensify further into a well-marked low pressure area in 48 hours.

Under the influence of this strong weather system, widespread heavy rainfall to very heavy rainfall likely across Sindh especially south-eastern Sindh (Mirpur Khas, Badin and adjoining cities), while heavy rainfall likely in coastal Sindh  too (Karachi, Thatta and Keti Bandar), overall the winds will be strong (56 to 60 km/h).

Update issued on August 10 at 2: 30 pm PST 

Heavy downpour expected in 48 hours across Sindh

Yesterday’s low pressure area is over south Rajasthan now, it is likely to move into Sindh on August 10 late or August 11 mid-day/ (change has again occurred in its arrival date), the low pressure may intensify into a well-marked low pressure in next 48 hours.It will move to and fro over Sindh again as forecasted eariler.

Under the influence of this strong weather system, widespread heavy rainfall to very heavy rainfall likely across Sindh especially south-eastern Sindh (Mirpur Khas, Badin and adjoining cities), while heavy rainfall likely in coastal Sindh  too (Karachi, Thatta and Keti Bandar), overall the winds will be strong (60 km/h), due to severe rainfall in Sindh, chances of flooding is likely. Rains as of latest forecast will start from today (have started in most parts)and last till August 14. While chances of rainfall in Karachi from evening (August 10).

Update issued on August 9 at 7:00 pm PST

“Chances of flooding in Sindh during the weekend”

Yesterday’s low pressure area is now over Madya Pradesh and adjoining Rajasthan, it has absorbed the upper air cyclonic circulations over Rajasthan and adjoining Punjab. The weather system will further intensify into a well-marked low pressure in next 48 hours, after that it might further intensify into a depression due to change in track the rains have been delayed in Sindh but not vanished.

The system will move from south-eastern to central to coastal Sindh and eventually head to Makran coast as it will be in dissipating stages on August 16. The system might enter Sindh on August 12 now instead of previous dates. Under the influence of this weather system very heavy rainfall likely in Mirpur Khas, Badin, Umerkot and other towns and cities of south-eastern Sindh with very strong gusty winds (60 km/h). While heavy rainfall with strong gusty winds likely coastal cities of Sindh that is Karachi, Thatta and other adjoining cities. Hyderabad will also get rain during this period. The rains will now start from August 12 morning till August 15 mid-day. The system could drop heavy sheets of rainfall in Sindh, thus chances of flooding in Sindh during the weekend. Light to moderate showers might occur on August 10 in different parts of Sindh mostly south-eastern Sindh.

Update issued on August 9 at 2:00 pm PST

Yesterday’s low pressure over north-west Mayda Pradesh it will further intensify into a well-marked low pressure in few days. Its track has changed since yesterday. It is likely to approach south-eastern Sindh on August 10/August 11, where it may further intensify. The system might will move to and fro over Sindh from August 10 till August 14 night, with strong intensity, during the period it will move towards upper Sindh then again to south-eastern Sindh and eventually from coastal Sindh to Makran coast on August 15.

Under the influence of this weather system, widespread rainfall with isolated very heavy rainfall with strong gusty winds (50 km/h to 60 km/h) likely in Sindh especially Mirpur Khas and Badin. Heavy rainfall also likely in coastal Sindh including Karachi from August 10 till August 14 night with few gaps. The system will head towards Makran coast on August 15.

Update issued on August 8 at 10:00 pm PST

Low pressure over north-west Madya Pradesh persists, it may further intensify into a well-marked low pressure in next few days. It will follow a NW track towards upper Sindh and adjoining south Punjab instead of SW track. However change in track may occur in 24 hours after that no change likely.

Under the influence of this weather system, heavy to very heavy rainfall likely in upper and some parts of south-eastern Sindh including Sukkur. While the intensity of the rain will be heavy in coastal Sindh including Karachi. Winds are likely to be strong especially in upper and south-eastern Sindh where some wind storms may occur. Rains will start from August 10 and continue till August 14.

Update issued on August 8 at 3:00 pm PST

Yesterday’s UAC over Utter Pradesh has intensified into a low pressure area at present it is over north-west Madya Pradesh and adjoining areas of Utter Pradesh. The low pressure will further intensify into a well-marked low pressure area (strong weather system) before reaching Pakistan, it will maintain its intensity for few days. The system is now likely to move in a west direction according to GFS (towards south-eastern and Upper Sindh), instead of south-eastern Sindh and coastal Sindh to Makran coast.

Under the influence of this weather system, heavy to very heavy rainfall with very strong gusty winds likely across Sindh from August 10 to August 12 night/August 13 mid-day.

Update issued on August 7 at 9:00 pm PST

The upper air cyclonic circulations (UAC) over Utter Pradesh is likely to intensify into a low pressure in next 2 days (August 8 or August 9) now, it will acquire a south-west track before reaching Sindh on August 10/August 11. Certain models suggest it to intensify into depression, but it is more likely to become a low pressure or well-marked low.

Under the influence of this weather system, heavy to very heavy rainfall with strong gusty winds likely in Sindh from August 10 to August 12 night/August 13 mid-day.

Features of the weather systems

Below is the features of these weather systems (they may change as time passes by);

First low pressure

Most maps showing 200 mm rainfall in south-eastern Sindh.

An upper air cyclonic circulations formed in the central Bay of Bengal on July 28 that moved to north-west Bay of Bengal the same day, the UAC persisted over the north-west region of the Bay for many days. On August 2, the UAC moved to northern part of Bay of Bengal but the other day it once again headed to north-west Bay. After many days of stationary movement, the UAC on August 4 crossed the Orissa coast and late that day it entered Chhattisgarh. On August 5, the UAC moved to Utter Pradesh and the other day it moved to south-east Utter Pradesh. The UAC is currently moving in south-west direction after moving in a westwards direction. The Upper air cyclonic circulations are forecasted to intensify further, it will move from Utter Pradesh to Gujarat via Rajasthan and enter Sindh by August 11 morning/evening, it will completely enter Sindh on August 12 evening. It is very likely that this UAC will start to gain intensity to become a low pressure/well-marked low pressure on its way to Sindh. Very few models had went so far in suggesting that it would become a depression over land, that is something that is extremely rare. Overall the intensity of this system will be very strong.

Trough of western disturbance

On August 4, a western trough over the Afghanistan started moving towards Pakistan slowly, on August 5 it gained intensity and moved to north-east Afghanistan. It is currently moving in westwards towards Upper Pakistan. Interaction between western trough and strong monsoon moisture will take place in coming week in Upper Pakistan as forecasted by Pakistan Weather Portal (PWP)

Second low pressure

Although it is too early to go in detail about this weather system but what PWP had observed about this system, PWP will share with its readers;

An upper air cyclonic circulations form over the Bay of Bengal and move inland on August 14 to Madya Pradesh, it will also move westwards. If it behaves as forecasted then it will bring the third spell to Sindh, if it is the opposite that no third monsoon rainfall in Sindh. Few days back, various meteorological parameters observed by the PWP showed that it will become a strong weather system (Low pressure) over Madya Pradesh and head towards South Punjab and upper Sindh. Whenever it forms or what ever track it selects, PWP will give updates.

This coverage will continue as long as chances of severe weather persist, it may also be canceled if conditions changes.

638 replies to “Widespread rainfall alert for Pakistan – Special Coverage!”

  3. Babar Bhai are there any chances that the coming system will change its track? and not a single rain will occour in karachi? :|

  4. yawrrrr/…………………
    PMD is showing no rain in karachi till thursday
    can anybody gv reason why???
    babar bhai?

  8. @ K.M, Still BBC is not ready to show rains over karachi. Do you expect rains from tomorrow over KHI?

  10. I think the system will be at peak intensity on 13th of august bc0z all weather websites sh0wing heaviest rain in Karachi on 13th august .

  15. news alert low presure area forms over north west madhya pardesh with asociated uper air cyclonic circulation.it is movint in a south west direction towards gujrat and south rajasthan

  17. LoL another gud new :

    PMD has updated it’s precipitation chart f0r Karachi fr0m 106mm to 13mm LoL.

    1. as of latest its not coming to karachi like yesterday, it will now head to south-eastern sindh to upper sindh, thunder/showers still likely with strong winds in Karachi…

  24. karachi will get heavy heavy rain fall cause the system will be very close t karachi aroun 150 mm

  25. u were right sam, we will get f00led again and i th1nk we g0t fooled =p
    It changed it’s direction and PMD also sh0wing 13mm rain, enj0y light rain =p
    Every weather system just g0es against our will.

  29. breaking news:zimbabwai beat bangladesh by 131 runs in test match.or no rain in khi……..

  30. These cl0uds c0me bef0re heavy rain ? lol that’s n0t neccessory, they also came on 25th and 26th of july, was that heavy rain ?

  35. it willand cause intense rain with downpour of 100 mm ,it is gainig strnghth lok at the satelite pic

  36. Yeah i kn0w but gaining strength doesn’t mean it will curve back to Karachi, i also want rain of 200+mm but PMD and GFS aren’t sh0wing heavy rains in Karachi.

  39. yaar KM PLZ PLZ mention karachi on ur updates yaaar…. South eastern sindh main karachi aata hai yaar…. to karachi main baarish ka kyun nhain batarahi PMD……

  42. KM TODAY I SAW ASTRANGE PHENOMEA WHICH I WANT TO SHARE WITH YOU TODAY THERE WAS GOOD RAIN IN ISLAMABAD BUT WHEN CLOUDS STARTED TO REACH RAWALPINDI ALL OF THE SUDDEN CLOUDS CHANGED THERE DIRECTION AT FOLLOWING PACE
    11PM SE
    12PM WWE
    1PM TOTTAL DISPEARED
    PLEASE ANALYZE THIS SITUATION AND TWLL ME WHEN RAWALPINDI WILL GET GOOD RAIN.

  48. yaar 8 baje to update kerdooo…. km bhai
    karachi ka batado kitne percent chances hain yaaar…….
    kab hogi?

  50. The system is g0ing t0wards upper Sindh and only light rain can occur in Karachi thats it.

  54. yar kal 100 to 150 mm tak barish k chances thai khi main aj 70 to 100 mm ho gaya hai,kal 30 to 50 mm hojai ga or wednesday tak system weak ho ker khatam honai wala ho jao ho ga or khi main bas drizzling hoti rahai gi, is saal yehi khi ki qismat hai…

  55. yaar km plz update us yaar k kia scene hai KARACHI main barish kaa….. sindh main to ho gi hiiiii yaaar we want to know about khi
    kab or kitni yaar

  56. @EVERYONE :

    PMD’s IR image sh0wing that the LOW PRESSURE system has entered Rajhastan
    and will start to enter Sindh fr0m tomorr0w.
    We all should depend upon ALLAH rather then depending upon
    the weather sites and INSHA’ALLAH we will get very heavy rainfall.

  60. Yahoooooooooooo…. larkana mei non stop rain chal hah atleast 1.30 hour ! aur abhi tak ahista aur taiz taiz chal raha hah i think 100mm tak hogai hah barish larkana mei ab tak so KM what u have update for larkana and upper sindh ? aur karachi ki kismat phooti hah nai hoga rain wahan jab tak COMMISIONERY nizaam bahaal nai hoga aur MQM se khilaafat nai hogi

  63. @EVERYONE :

    Light to moderate rain expected in Karachi n0w, n0thing m0re then that.

  64. Hahahahahahahah PPP to phr bhi sab kuch saamnei karti hah lekinn MQM to peet pechy karti hah kaairu ki tarah . Khi mei saari blood ki game MQM ki hah . Aur isi wajah se barish nai hogi khi mei aur comisionary nizam bahaal hoga phr mqm ki batakhori bandh hogi phr wo rui gi aur ppp se lareygi phr

  65. @KM :

    Is this system intensifying or weakening bc0z PMD’s IR image sh0wing that it weakened.

  66. ok lets forget it, this is a weather bl0g =p besides, Karachi me koi achi party nai ha.

  68. beta tum abhi bachya ho akal k kachay ho samjhay mqm is fact aur bhar ma gaya commisionay nizam aur tumhara zardari lutera swiis account ka rakahail

  70. yar aap log yahan per to mat laro…comissionar hon ya nazim hon sab apnai liye sochtai hain…awam ko on chakron main daal ker khud mazai ker rahai hen ye sab….in logon ka kiya hai kal agar koi bura waqt aiga to ye sab sai pehlai bhagain gai….bhugatna to hamain parai ga,balqai abhi bi hum log hi bhugat rahai hain in logon kai kAlai kartuton kai result

  71. Monsoon boy.. tum nei shayad hamarey lion ministeer zulifqar mirza ki takreer nai dekhi jismei usmei MQM ki waaat lagaa di thi hahahahahah aur kia bhi ho yeh COMISIONARY nizam bahal hoga samjhey tum bacha abhi kacha hah . Aur saari sindh khush thi comissianary nizam se to tum log kun iske khilaf ho tumari aamdani and bhata khori kam hoti hah kiaa is nizam se na

  72. Aur Monsoon boy jaahil party ke jaahil kaarkun .tumei yad hoga aj se 35 saal pehly MUMTAZ BHUTTO jab C.M sindh tha to kesy MQM walon ko and unke logo ko buriyu mei daal ke samander mei phenk nei jaa raha tha to uswaqt ke P.M ZULIFQAR BHUTTO sahab nei usko rokaa manah kardia tha ALTAF HUSSAIN wahin pe dar ke maarey dhoom dabaa ke london bhag gaya aur tery altaf nei aaj tak wapas aanei ki jurat nai ki hah Kunke harkoi MUHTARMA BENAZIR
    OR MEER MURTAZA AND ZULIFQAR bhuto nai hota

  73. ZULIFQAR MIRZA nei jab MQM ki bhata khoori bandh karwanei mei kamyab hota ja raha tha to tum log uski seat ke peechy parh gai saaley kaair bhata khor saarey hamarey pyarey khi ko khoon mei dabaa ke rakh dia hah MQM jaahilo nei

  74. WTH is going on here ….. this is a weather blog instead of cursing each othr pray for rains in karachi … i agree k karachi main jo khoon kharaba horha hai uski waja se hi ALLAH paak ki rehmat yahan nhi baras rahi hai but hume dua karni chaye baarish ki aur in politics se door rehna chaye leaders awam ko larake hi hukumat karte hain unka motto hai devide and rule to hame unko kamiab nhi hone dena hai

  75. zaka u r rite and i jst want to say that SYASAT MANNA HAI YAHAN…pray for rain in khi…hamesha weather system dar jata hai yahan anai sai…

  81. @Fragnatic
    keep 3 spell aside, first think and pray abt actually 1st spell of moonson or a so called 2nd spell in Karachi.

  82. why keep 3rd spell aside i think about the present but for the future aswell so eyes to 3rd spell.

  83. Fragnatic,
    dont start jumping on the horses, it wont b beneficial.
    Thanks and Pray about 1 spell of moonson in krachi, 2nd or 3rd speel is far away.

  86. congratulation pakmet updated karachi ‘s precipitation from 13mm to 109 mm.hope this could happen.

  94. Is the system over Madya Pradesh ? PMD’s IR image sh0wing it’s over Gurjat :s

  97. I think the moisture from this system has started entering SIndh thats why altocumulus cl0uds are over Karachi.

  98. Guess what :p today there are no SW cl0uds and humidity is high and wind is bearly bl0wing.

  100. karachi metro tell me that what is cloudburst which ocurred in lahore and islamabad yesterday.

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