The special coverage of “widespread rainfall alert” by the Pakistan Weather Portal (PWP) is over!
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Flash/Urban flooding
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Two strong eastern systems
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One strong western trough
After experiencing a dull start to the monsoon of 2011, Pakistan is all set to get proper monsoon rainfalls that it used to get every year. Some parts of Pakistan had received above average rainfall while many parts faced below average rainfall. Early this year the United Nations (U.N) had published a report that suggested that probability of floods this year are high due to lack of construction in last year’s flood-hit regions, later a report from Oxfam international also reported the same things. But this year the monsoon rainfall were not active like last year mainly due to the lack of weather systems from the Bay of Bengal. Upper Pakistan has got showers due to the interaction between western troughs and monsoon moisture where as last year it was the interaction between strong western disturbance and a strong low pressure from the Bay of Bengal that created havoc in the country and later devastating floods sank 20% land of Pakistan. Now these same conditions are erupting as a strong low pressure is in making and a strong trough of western disturbance is over Afghanistan. Will history repeat itself?
PWP upgraded its second monsoon forecast from ” very high” to “extremely high” in Sindh, PWP on July 29 forecasted monsoonal activity in Sindh in August. PWP upgrades third monsoon spell for Sindh from “moderate” to “high”, PWP forecasted the third spell on August 4. Pakistan Weather Portal (PWP) is 75% confident with this forecast after observing different meteorological factors. But we may revise our third monsoon rainfall for Sindh.
Updates regarding Severe weather
All the new updates will be issued below;
Update issued on August 10 at 7:00 pm PST – LAST UPDATE
Yesterday’s low pressure area is over South Rajasthan and adjoining North-western Gujarat, it will enter Sindh on August 10 late or August 11 morning, the low pressure may intensify further into a well-marked low pressure area in 48 hours.
Under the influence of this strong weather system, widespread heavy rainfall to very heavy rainfall likely across Sindh especially south-eastern Sindh (Mirpur Khas, Badin and adjoining cities), while heavy rainfall likely in coastal Sindh too (Karachi, Thatta and Keti Bandar), overall the winds will be strong (56 to 60 km/h).
Update issued on August 10 at 2: 30 pm PST
Heavy downpour expected in 48 hours across Sindh
Yesterday’s low pressure area is over south Rajasthan now, it is likely to move into Sindh on August 10 late or August 11 mid-day/ (change has again occurred in its arrival date), the low pressure may intensify into a well-marked low pressure in next 48 hours.It will move to and fro over Sindh again as forecasted eariler.
Under the influence of this strong weather system, widespread heavy rainfall to very heavy rainfall likely across Sindh especially south-eastern Sindh (Mirpur Khas, Badin and adjoining cities), while heavy rainfall likely in coastal Sindh too (Karachi, Thatta and Keti Bandar), overall the winds will be strong (60 km/h), due to severe rainfall in Sindh, chances of flooding is likely. Rains as of latest forecast will start from today (have started in most parts)and last till August 14. While chances of rainfall in Karachi from evening (August 10).
Update issued on August 9 at 7:00 pm PST
“Chances of flooding in Sindh during the weekend”
Yesterday’s low pressure area is now over Madya Pradesh and adjoining Rajasthan, it has absorbed the upper air cyclonic circulations over Rajasthan and adjoining Punjab. The weather system will further intensify into a well-marked low pressure in next 48 hours, after that it might further intensify into a depression due to change in track the rains have been delayed in Sindh but not vanished.
The system will move from south-eastern to central to coastal Sindh and eventually head to Makran coast as it will be in dissipating stages on August 16. The system might enter Sindh on August 12 now instead of previous dates. Under the influence of this weather system very heavy rainfall likely in Mirpur Khas, Badin, Umerkot and other towns and cities of south-eastern Sindh with very strong gusty winds (60 km/h). While heavy rainfall with strong gusty winds likely coastal cities of Sindh that is Karachi, Thatta and other adjoining cities. Hyderabad will also get rain during this period. The rains will now start from August 12 morning till August 15 mid-day. The system could drop heavy sheets of rainfall in Sindh, thus chances of flooding in Sindh during the weekend. Light to moderate showers might occur on August 10 in different parts of Sindh mostly south-eastern Sindh.
Update issued on August 9 at 2:00 pm PST
Yesterday’s low pressure over north-west Mayda Pradesh it will further intensify into a well-marked low pressure in few days. Its track has changed since yesterday. It is likely to approach south-eastern Sindh on August 10/August 11, where it may further intensify. The system might will move to and fro over Sindh from August 10 till August 14 night, with strong intensity, during the period it will move towards upper Sindh then again to south-eastern Sindh and eventually from coastal Sindh to Makran coast on August 15.
Under the influence of this weather system, widespread rainfall with isolated very heavy rainfall with strong gusty winds (50 km/h to 60 km/h) likely in Sindh especially Mirpur Khas and Badin. Heavy rainfall also likely in coastal Sindh including Karachi from August 10 till August 14 night with few gaps. The system will head towards Makran coast on August 15.
Update issued on August 8 at 10:00 pm PST
Low pressure over north-west Madya Pradesh persists, it may further intensify into a well-marked low pressure in next few days. It will follow a NW track towards upper Sindh and adjoining south Punjab instead of SW track. However change in track may occur in 24 hours after that no change likely.
Under the influence of this weather system, heavy to very heavy rainfall likely in upper and some parts of south-eastern Sindh including Sukkur. While the intensity of the rain will be heavy in coastal Sindh including Karachi. Winds are likely to be strong especially in upper and south-eastern Sindh where some wind storms may occur. Rains will start from August 10 and continue till August 14.
Update issued on August 8 at 3:00 pm PST
Yesterday’s UAC over Utter Pradesh has intensified into a low pressure area at present it is over north-west Madya Pradesh and adjoining areas of Utter Pradesh. The low pressure will further intensify into a well-marked low pressure area (strong weather system) before reaching Pakistan, it will maintain its intensity for few days. The system is now likely to move in a west direction according to GFS (towards south-eastern and Upper Sindh), instead of south-eastern Sindh and coastal Sindh to Makran coast.
Under the influence of this weather system, heavy to very heavy rainfall with very strong gusty winds likely across Sindh from August 10 to August 12 night/August 13 mid-day.
Update issued on August 7 at 9:00 pm PST
The upper air cyclonic circulations (UAC) over Utter Pradesh is likely to intensify into a low pressure in next 2 days (August 8 or August 9) now, it will acquire a south-west track before reaching Sindh on August 10/August 11. Certain models suggest it to intensify into depression, but it is more likely to become a low pressure or well-marked low.
Under the influence of this weather system, heavy to very heavy rainfall with strong gusty winds likely in Sindh from August 10 to August 12 night/August 13 mid-day.
Features of the weather systems
Below is the features of these weather systems (they may change as time passes by);
First low pressure
An upper air cyclonic circulations formed in the central Bay of Bengal on July 28 that moved to north-west Bay of Bengal the same day, the UAC persisted over the north-west region of the Bay for many days. On August 2, the UAC moved to northern part of Bay of Bengal but the other day it once again headed to north-west Bay. After many days of stationary movement, the UAC on August 4 crossed the Orissa coast and late that day it entered Chhattisgarh. On August 5, the UAC moved to Utter Pradesh and the other day it moved to south-east Utter Pradesh. The UAC is currently moving in south-west direction after moving in a westwards direction. The Upper air cyclonic circulations are forecasted to intensify further, it will move from Utter Pradesh to Gujarat via Rajasthan and enter Sindh by August 11 morning/evening, it will completely enter Sindh on August 12 evening. It is very likely that this UAC will start to gain intensity to become a low pressure/well-marked low pressure on its way to Sindh. Very few models had went so far in suggesting that it would become a depression over land, that is something that is extremely rare. Overall the intensity of this system will be very strong.
Trough of western disturbance
On August 4, a western trough over the Afghanistan started moving towards Pakistan slowly, on August 5 it gained intensity and moved to north-east Afghanistan. It is currently moving in westwards towards Upper Pakistan. Interaction between western trough and strong monsoon moisture will take place in coming week in Upper Pakistan as forecasted by Pakistan Weather Portal (PWP)
Second low pressure
Although it is too early to go in detail about this weather system but what PWP had observed about this system, PWP will share with its readers;
An upper air cyclonic circulations form over the Bay of Bengal and move inland on August 14 to Madya Pradesh, it will also move westwards. If it behaves as forecasted then it will bring the third spell to Sindh, if it is the opposite that no third monsoon rainfall in Sindh. Few days back, various meteorological parameters observed by the PWP showed that it will become a strong weather system (Low pressure) over Madya Pradesh and head towards South Punjab and upper Sindh. Whenever it forms or what ever track it selects, PWP will give updates.
Pakistan Weather Portal (PWP) 
638 responses to “Widespread rainfall alert for Pakistan – Special Coverage!”
Extreme amount of precipitation which lasts for few minutes but it causes extremely heavy rain.
yeh tu muje bi pata hai magar cloudburst hota kis wajah sai hai.
i think karachi mai 18 july 2009 ki raat ko hone wali barish bi cloudburst ki wajah sai hoi thi.
Han that was a cloudburst, cloudbursts occur when strong monsoon moisture interacts with strong western disturbance or there is a strong monsoon system.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cloudburst
This will be much more helpful.
weather.com showing system is over gujrat
Yup ! It’s Over Gujrat.
KM I AM STILL WAITING FOR THE ANSWER OF MY QUESTION
There are different altitudes for different clouds, higher clouds move in opposite direction from the lower clouds…
yaar km kia system ka direction change hogaya hai?
ab kia ye karachi se guzrega?
kyun k makran coast to karachi k baad hi aata hai yaaar…..
Plz update about rain in karachi……..
updated..
ya wala system b bhag jay ga,same as last wala,
jb tak west k winds stop nai hoteen,0% chances of rain in Karachi
yaar baarish hogi…..last week of july mai aik dam se West se hawaa chalne shoro hogai thi n dark clouds came out of nowhere jab k lag raha tha k baarish nahi hogi
LoL Beeba these winds won’t change their direction until a system is near us and the system is not near us right n0w so chill.
it gona rain in karachi at arounm 9.30 pm
like nuts
oohhhhhhhhhhh… any source? kese bhai?
http://www.weather.com/weather/videos/news-41/top-stories-169/wow-a-face-in-the-clouds-21520#loc=62/436/21520
look at this excellent face yaar
@EVERY BODY
more updates tomorrow at 3 pm…
babar bhai system is over gujrat becuz maps r showing it :/
LoL n0w delayed just like cyclone Keila, tomorr0w it will change it’s track n0w and there will be no rain.
Baber bhai plzZz tell me why is PMD sh0wing that the system is in Sindh, reply must. Are they wr0ng ???
TELL ME WHY THE HELL IS PMD SHOWING THAT THE SYSTEM IS OVER SINDH :@:@
@Sam and Tarim
The centre is over south-east Rajasthan, centre is followed, not the length, like the eye of the cyclone…
http://www.weather.com/weather/map/AFXX0001?mapregion=afghan_sat_720_usen&showanimation=yes
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see , dark clouds but no rain
@KM :
i knew u would say that but still all i see is that the whole system is over SIndh and no part of it is over rajhastan or pradesh. I also looked at the IR image but they’re sh0wing that the centre of the system is over SINDH :/
OH yes sorry u are right Km :p
heavy clouds over sindh and karachi, some rain could come tonight.
pata nahi kaisa system hai ye rajhistan or gujrat sai nikalna hi nahi cha raha hai…
aj Mirpurkhas m light showers hoi hai.KM kya Mirpurkhas m bhi 12 ko heavy rain hogi??
guys dont expect rains before 13th in karachi …
yahan buht bijli chamak tahi hai or badal garaj rahai hain laikin barish nahi strt hui abhi tak
Dear, Can i know which area?
very chances of rain in karachi today…
@zulfi
bhai pakistan border security forces us se passport mang rahe hein,woh show nahe karwa raha, is liye usay enter nahe honay dia ja raha…. lol
wait bro it will rain INSHAALLAH….
@zulfi
where do u live?
steel town
light rain in Gulshan-e-iqbal very grey clouds are coming…)
weather.com maps r showing that system has entered sindh
hey everybody rain has started in Gulistan-e- Jauhar :)
Light rain not a Drizzle
same here in Gulshan-e-iqbal
km but it didnot rained in rawalpindi when will rawalpindi have rain
waisai abhi to barish ho jani chaye,agar in clouds sai barosh na hui,phir to khi ka lhuda hi hagiz hai,sehri kai waqt bhi aisa lag raha tha k rain bs strt honai hi wali hai lightning or awaz ki wajah sai laikin bs wohi qismat hamari…
rain started on steel town
light rain + lightning
ani chances of rain 2dae?????
yaar kaheen shuru hui barish?????
Heavy to very heavy rains in Mitti, Deplo,chacharoo ,Nangar since 12 mid night.
Has rain started anywhere in KHI? or Is it raining now anywhere in KHI?
it mite bro just hope that it comes fast !!!!!!!!!!
pakmet have issued specially advisory for sindh , heavy falls expected in karachi in next 24 – 48 hours
All weather sites are saying in current conditions, “Thunderstorms” .
Akhir kahan ho rahi hai barishh???
yahan to sukha para hai :(
http://weather.cnn.com/weather/forecast.jsp?locCode=PKXX0008&zipCode=354328257765
K.M pls update karo
rains will show up before iftaar
how can you be so sure ????
where is karachi metro.hamesha important time par gayab hojate han.
KM will update us at 3PM.
yaar khi mein baarish ka koi namo nishan nahi hai !!!!!!
http://www.weather.com/weather/map/AFXX0001?mapregion=afghan_sat_720_usen&showanimation=yes
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as per this map, system in now over Karachi.
26 july waly system ki tarha ya b chala jay ga.
yeh system nhi hai yeh tu uska moisture hai, system ka centre tu rajistan mai hai .so dont lose hope.
@EVERYONE :
Just wait for 3pm, Baber bhai said that he will update us today at 3pm.
PMD downgraded precipitation f0r Karachi fr0m 109 to 35 MM :p
I don’t care what they say, it will rain heavily in Karachi.
yaar it wont rain heavily :-(
light rain here since 8 am aur abhi itni zor se thunder howa tha k meri maths ki teacher dar gai :p
231mm rain recorded in mithi!!!!!
source about mithi
geo news :p
ok.yar tumari taraf tu hogai barish magar yahan tu sirf heavy clouds hi han.
i peed on myself when thunder howa tha
aray umair i live in karachi n im still waiting for rain :p
@Shujaat
meri tu potty came out L0L :(
aur yeh sirf white clouds hai no dark clouds :(
geo news saying tharpar hyderabad thatta mirpur khas mithi mai teez baarish ho rahi hai
PMD director general saying no heavy rain in KHI!!!!! :@
Army with boats have been called in mithi …. very heavy rain going on there
no heavy rain in Karachi.
yesterday ” forcast by pmd for mithi was very right.
Everbody pray for rain in karachi
It will rain heavily in Karachi even m0re heavier than Mithi.
*INSHA’ALLAH*
duain bhi qabool nahi ho rahin
yaar babar bhai agar system rajistan mai hai tou sindh mai itni tez baarish kesay ho rahi hai????
Because of moisture incursion …. shiddat waale clouds low pressure k south west main hain is wakt aur sindh low pressure k southwest main hai isliye itni shadeed baarishen hui hain aur hongi aage abhi to low pressure ki intensity aur barhegi inshALLAH
Karachi me 1 boond to gir jaye lol :p
lite rain started here again yaar y is it so cold? :S
kon si place par ho ap
Yeah it’s too cold here too :D :o
@KM :
Any new updates ? =p
No new update…
WTH yar every web is sh0wing thunderstorm in Karachi but here isn’t even a sign of a single dr0p :S
http://www.timeanddate.com/weather/pakistan/karachi
Behavior of Mr.Babar i.e Page owner is so rude and unethical with the page visitors.He does not timely respond to the participants and also does not individually respond to each query.i think mr babar wants to people visit more and more in search of the reply of their query so the more clicks would increase the income of the page owner.
Its not correct … You are requested to think possitive please !
are you here 24 hours a day???
Yes….the same i said that the remarks of Beeba are absolutely not correct……he should start thinking possitive now….
not 24 hrs but 12 to 14 hrs, beside i observe ur activity in this blog,
dnt mind if i used hard words, but i would request u to be friendly and answer each individual separately.dont ignore anyone or reply in common.
aray beeba babar bhai also has a life and he comes around 2pm and 6pm to respond to us
SW cl0uds return and still no sign of rain, SAD.
hoge in next 3 hours paka it will rain like nuts yar ,the system is intensyfying plus a very dark blotch of cloud is aproaching karachi
Widespread rains/thundershowers heavy at times expected in Sindh including Karachi ,eastern Balochistan & South Punjab from Wednesday to Friday with occasional periods. Isolated heavy falls is expected in Southeastern Sindh (Hyderabad & Mirpurkhas) during the periods.
(PAKISTAN METEOROLOGICAL DEPARTEMENT)
No sign of rain, Just SW cl0uds.
its about too ,people living in north parts oa karachi what is the situation there
mithi mai 309mm baarish record hoi hai
idhar steel town main to kafi dair sai halki barish ho rahi hai….from abt 2 hrs..
it will start to pour in an hour
nothing here in phase 8 :/ only white clouds
rain will come from north north from south ,defence and clifton will be the last areas covered by heavy rain
lol a small dark cloud came from the north :p
nafey where do u live?
drizzling in gulshan area …
yaaar really need some serious update….. yaar barish honi hai to ho nahin honi to naa hoo…….. intezaar to khatam hoga yaaar
what about intensity of system…… and when it will going to enter sindh and when in karachi…..plz update plz
It has been updated…
We will only get to see overcast weather.
WTH ! The system is in Sindh :@
http://www.pakmet.com.pk/Subpage1/S_images/satellite_image.html
KM IT RAINED IN ISLAMABAD BUT RAWALPINDI IT NEIGHBOUR CITY HAD NO WHEN WILL RAWALPINDI HAVE GOOD RAIN
what is the situation in northern parts of karachi
km please update about rawalpindi it rained everywhere else but it did not rained in pindi.
yaaar km bhai jab system enter hogaaa to aap hamen update keroge?
kia system enter hone k baad hi khi main rains shru hongin?
More monsoon showers at times heavy to continue in Islamabad, Punjab, Khyber and Kashmir. Very heavy rainfall in Sindh has started, chances of rainfall in Karachi from evening
isko to thik krdain km bhai…….. evening to kB ki guzar chukiii
http://www.timeanddate.com/weather/pakistan/karachi/ext
This web sh0wing the 3rd monsoon spell to start fr0m 22nd – 25th of august
and it’s sh0wing 146MM rain on 25th august :p
@KM :
Evening is g0ne and still no sign of rain.
Is it raining anywhere in Karachi ?