Pakistan Weather Update & Monsoon alert (August 19 – August 26)

  • Monsoon activity in Sindh!

  • Weekend and Monsoon!

  • UAC moving westwards!

Temperature and precipitation

Sindh province has experienced its second floods in a row though they were of different nature but the people faced same problems. Record-breaking monsoon showers created a flood-like situation in south-eastern Sindh that affected some 2 Lakh people. In the north few isolated flooding events have been reported as 5th monsoon spell is coming to an end in those areas. Temperatures are likely to remain high in some areas till 48 hours especially in Sindh while humidity will remain high in the monsoon belt of the country. What lies ahead for Pakistan? Well its week-long monsoon rains for some parts.

Monsoon is now on peak intensity and is likely to start to withdraw from last week of August or first week of September in Pakistan. Overall monsoon has been below normal in many southern parts of Pakistan.

Pakistan Weather Portal (PWP)’s forecast

“Notice: This is the forecast from Pakistan Weather Portal (PWP), we are 65% confident with this prediction. There will be slight variations in our forecast as certain meteorological factors develop and fade as time passes by and these factors are too isolated to be noticed on numerical charts or models, so if any change arises then PWP will update you.”

Pakistan Weather Portal (PWP) had successfully predicted the onset of Monsoon over coastal and south-eastern Sindh on July 28 till July 30 that PWP forecasted on July 15. PWP was right on track to predict that second monsoon spell over those same areas on August 10 till August 15, PWP forecasted the second monsoon rainfall on July 29. Now all eyes on the third monsoon spell.

Pakistan Weather: August 21 - August 22 mid-day

Pakistan Weather Portal (PWP) on August 4 predicted the third monsoon rainfall. As of August 19, earlier PWP forecasted and said;

” ‘Moderate’ chances of monsoon hitting Karachi during the weekend of August.”

PWP maintains its third monsoon forecast to “moderate” and we hope that monsoon showers would start from August 21 till August 23 morning in Sindh.

The 5th monsoon spell is likely to come to end in upper Pakistan in 24 to 48 hours after that chances of light showers will continue till 2 to 3 days, during that period some temperatures could rise while humidity will rise. After those days the 6th monsoon spell will start in those areas. As for Sindh, third monsoon spell would start from August 21 and continue till 1 to 2 days. Overall it will be a short spell and after that a gap is likely.

As of 7:00 pm PST August 19, Various models, numerical charts and other meteorological parameters observed by PWP indicate that the upper air cyclonic circulations over Chhattisgarh will move to central Madya Pradesh from here it will start its journey to south-eastern Sindh, while moving it may lose its intensity and it may tore into different thunderstorm. The UAC will approach south-eastern Sindh by August 21 mid-day/evening. Eventually it will dissipate after 48 hours over south-eastern Sindh.

Islamabad

The 5th spell of monsoon will continue in the capital for 48 hours. Showers will be mostly steady with some lightening expected on August 19 night. A fresh monsoonal activity likely after 2 to 3 days.

Mercury is expected in Islamabad;

  • 33°C to 35 °C in Islamabad.

Punjab

In Northern Punjab: Lahore, Faisalabad, Murree, Rawalpindi, Sargodha, Sialkot and other adjoining cities. The 5th spell of monsoon will continue till August 20 mid-day and after that chances of light showers. A fresh monsoonal activity likely after 2 to 3 days.

In Northern Punjab, due to enhance monsoon activity, the temperatures found it difficult to rise and this condition is likely to continue. Following is the temperature forecast for Northern Punjab;

  • 33 °C to 36 °C in Lahore.
  • 38°C to 40 °C in Faisalabad.
  • 28°C to 33°C in Murree.

In Southern Punjab: Bahawalpur, Multan, Rahim Yar Khan, D. G. Khan and other adjoining cities. The 5th spell of monsoon is over however chances of light showers persist till 24 hours. Some more showers could occur on August 21 and August 22.

In Southern Punjab, temperatures will be higher than Northern Punjab;

  • 37 °C to 40 °C in Multan.
  • 39 °C to 41 °C in  Bahawalpur.

Sindh

In Upper Sindh: Sukkur, Larkana, Jacobabad, Kashmore, Nawabshah and other adjoining  cities. The 5th spell will begin from August 21 and continue till 48 hours. Rain will be accompanied by winds and thunder, it will be moderate in intensity.

Temperatures remained stationary in many parts of upper Sindh while few highs were recorded in few cities.

  • 36 °C to 38 °C in Sukkur.
  • 37 °C to 39 °C also in Larkana.
  • 36 °C to 39 °C in Nawabshah.

In South-eastern Sindh: Mirpur khas, Umerkot, Tharparkar, Badin and Hyderabad. The 3rd monsoon spell will begin from August 20 late night and continue till 1 to 2 days. Rain will be accompanied by fast winds and thunder, it will be mostly moderate in intensity with chances of isolated heavy falls in some extreme eastern parts, bordering Gujarat.

Temperatures will also calm in south-eastern Sindh due to long spell of very heavy rainfall during last few days.

  • 36 °C to 38 °C in Hyderabad.

In coastal Sindh: Karachi, Thatta, Keti, Shah Bandar and other coastal localities. The 3rd monsoon spell will begin from August 21 night and continue 1 to 2 days, Rain will be accompanied by fast winds and thunder, it will be moderate in intensity with chances of heavy falls in Keti Bandar and Thatta.

Due to frequent cloud over and fast winds the mercury in Karachi and other coastal cities has remained unchanged since July 1;

  • 31 °C to 34°C in Karachi.
Overall the temperatures are very likely to remain in a comfort zone due to fresh monsoon activity in Sindh, while temperatures could slightly rise in the country after August 22 night .

What lies ahead?-A long-range forecast from Pakistan Weather Portal (PWP)

  • Widespread episode again?

“Notice: This is a long-range forecast of PWP, it will definitely change in coming days. But PWP wants to share this long-range forecast with its readers.”

More monsoon showers likely after 3 to 5 days in almost all the monsoon regions of the country with heavy rainfall expected at many places of Pakistan. It will be the 6th monsoon spell in Upper Pakistan while 4th monsoon spell in Lower Pakistan.

Death toll rises significantly since last week!!

  • Death toll rises to 118 since August 17

Due to recent wave of heavy rainfall across Pakistan and flooding in Sindh the death toll has raised to 118 till August 17. PWP Media will keep you update on every weather incident in Pakistan.

Poll of the week

Pakistan Weather Portal (PWP) wants to ask its readers that;

240 replies to “Pakistan Weather Update & Monsoon alert (August 19 – August 26)”

    1. I have said that so far its a bad monsoon…but who knows that in the end we might get widespread rainfall like in 2005’s sept…a total of 80 mm rainfall occurred in mid Sept in 2005

  2. I hope so yaar bt speakin of nw i want to know that are the conditions favourable for formation for local thunderstorm in khi????
    my location Saddar????

  3. Karachi metro, sir.., i saw on geo news that heavy rains(musladhar) expected in karachi on thursday/friday…, do agree that musladhar barish karachi me hogi????

  7. @ K.M, Will it ever stops daily downpours over & near punjab,nwfp,kashmir specially lahore to islamabad? Will it ever starts downpours over karachi?

  11. @KM :

    Bro plzz tell me that is the UAC over East Punjab expected to bring 4th spell to Karachi or what ?

  12. @KM :

    Most weather sites sh0wing isolated thunderstorms f0rming over Karachi from tomorr0w, bec0ming m0re widespread overnight, is it true ?

    1. @Tarim and Saad
      UAC over Punjab will cause moisture incursion in Sindh…. the level of moisture will rise after Thursday mid-day, and chances of rainfall will erupt from evening, these chances of rainfall will stay till Saturday morning as of latest forecast…

  13. K.M every site showing rain/thundershowers in khi from tomorrow please upadate us about this post please nw.I wana know whats your lastest forecast for karachi for tomorrow can you post the forecast for Karachi like how you post about monsoon updates for Pakistan please i am waiting…………!!!!!!!!! THANK YOU

  14. Karachi metro,sir..,, i want to know from you that from which day,date rains start in karachi and how the intensity of these rains of latest forecast????

    1. @Shakeel and Sheraz – there are chances as I said yesterday, of rainfall from Thursday mid-day/evening..intensity is overall moderate…few chances (20-30%)of isolated heavy falls, but most isolated heavy falls will occur in south-eastern Sindh..

  22. BBC also sh0wing that the fresh UAC that f0rmed near Orissa c0ast will move
    t0wards Karachi.

  27. moderate with heavy raining in bufferzone,north karachi…but clouds producing rain is comming from south west? i can’t understand these rain clouds are comming from south west not from east/north east???? any buddy tell me why????

  37. K.M you havent updated the post yet update it please as there is a fear of power outage and i wana see the update

  39. bbc is showing heavy and thundery rain on monday and tuesday hopefully this time it will not change.

  41. According to BBC, the UAC that’s over Chhattisgarh is expected to reach Karachi on m0nday. Thus, bringing heavy rains to Karachi.

  43. KM will you please explain whats happening as i am reali confused the heavy clouds are going from southwest no rain clouds are coming from east i need explaination is your forecast goin wrong whats happening please update karo it was so dark that i thought it would give good rainfall please explain

    1. well, there is some break in these rains, one thunderstorm passes another forms this is how it works, there are chances of rainfall till 24 hours, so thunderstorms could form, although drizzle has started in some areas of the city again..

  45. Thunderstorms???? Reali arae the conditions ok that they form over karachi ani give us rain ????

  47. PMD sat image showing very heavy clouds over India you tell me will the prediction be that karachi could get a wetty monsoon during the current and coming week ?? by the look and the track of UAC which is over India im really hopping that this mite would bring plenty of rain in khi what does your forecast tell you about this ???

  48. @KM :

    BBC sh0wing that the UAC over chhattisgarh will reach Karachi on m0nday, is it true ?

  50. Km siri want to make humble request to u that plz make a chatroom in this web blog so we can also chat live 24 hours and get live updates from.you. Jesy mIRC mei hotein hei rooms wesa hee ek room.ap yahan pe banao plzz km bro . AND Is request ka jawab dena zaroor plzz .. thnkx

  51. K.M please tell us what happend cause the sky is clear. Was it going to be dissappted or its something all of a sudden ????

  56. Karachi Current Conditions :

    Temperature : 32C.
    Condition : Haze.
    Humidity 63%
    Pressure : 1005mb.
    Visibility : 5km.
    Wind : No Wind.

  61. Sir Karachi Jesi CONDITION yahan larkana mei bi hah ! wo Broken Dark Clouds arahein hein buhat Hot hah weather and No wINd ! so yahan larkana mei bi storm expect keeya ja sakhta hah na ?

  65. Thunderstorms f0rm just like SUPERCELLS f0rm.
    Thunderstorms tend to f0rm in the afternoon when there is perfect am0unt of heat f0r a perfect storm to f0rm. So just wait, they will f0rm INSHA’ALLAH.

  66. BBC has updated it’s f0recast and n0w it’s sh0wing THUNDERY SHOWER
    on monday and tuesday and HEAVY RAIN t0day.

  67. They did form Fragnat1c in the morining and they are forming ever since but as they get mature they start loosing there shape and dissappate

  70. Ok toh just update us the sky is totally clear its hot even are there any thunderstorms forming near Karachi right now???

  71. “Scattered rain/thundershower with isolated heavy falls expected in Punjab. KPK, Kashmir, Sindh and Eastern Balochistan during evening/night.” – PMD.

  72. Mature stage clouds dissipated bc0z the c0nditions became unfav0urable.
    Till 1:00PM, there was no wind and at 2:00PM, the wind started bl0wing fr0m SW at 22km/h.

  73. Im very thankfull to you Karachi Metro sir for looking forward to my request. And i also want to know that when will we can see chatroom in this blog….

  74. @KM :

    Is the UAC over Rajhastan m0ving t0wards Karachi ?
    What ab0ut the UAC over Orissa c0ast ?

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