Monsoon activity in Sindh!
Weekend and Monsoon!
UAC moving westwards!
Sindh province has experienced its second floods in a row though they were of different nature but the people faced same problems. Record-breaking monsoon showers created a flood-like situation in south-eastern Sindh that affected some 2 Lakh people. In the north few isolated flooding events have been reported as 5th monsoon spell is coming to an end in those areas. Temperatures are likely to remain high in some areas till 48 hours especially in Sindh while humidity will remain high in the monsoon belt of the country. What lies ahead for Pakistan? Well its week-long monsoon rains for some parts.
Monsoon is now on peak intensity and is likely to start to withdraw from last week of August or first week of September in Pakistan. Overall monsoon has been below normal in many southern parts of Pakistan.
Pakistan Weather Portal (PWP)’s forecast
“Notice: This is the forecast from Pakistan Weather Portal (PWP), we are 65% confident with this prediction. There will be slight variations in our forecast as certain meteorological factors develop and fade as time passes by and these factors are too isolated to be noticed on numerical charts or models, so if any change arises then PWP will update you.”
Pakistan Weather Portal (PWP) had successfully predicted the onset of Monsoon over coastal and south-eastern Sindh on July 28 till July 30 that PWP forecasted on July 15. PWP was right on track to predict that second monsoon spell over those same areas on August 10 till August 15, PWP forecasted the second monsoon rainfall on July 29. Now all eyes on the third monsoon spell.
Pakistan Weather Portal (PWP) on August 4 predicted the third monsoon rainfall. As of August 19, earlier PWP forecasted and said;
” ‘Moderate’ chances of monsoon hitting Karachi during the weekend of August.”
PWP maintains its third monsoon forecast to “moderate” and we hope that monsoon showers would start from August 21 till August 23 morning in Sindh.
The 5th monsoon spell is likely to come to end in upper Pakistan in 24 to 48 hours after that chances of light showers will continue till 2 to 3 days, during that period some temperatures could rise while humidity will rise. After those days the 6th monsoon spell will start in those areas. As for Sindh, third monsoon spell would start from August 21 and continue till 1 to 2 days. Overall it will be a short spell and after that a gap is likely.
As of 7:00 pm PST August 19, Various models, numerical charts and other meteorological parameters observed by PWP indicate that the upper air cyclonic circulations over Chhattisgarh will move to central Madya Pradesh from here it will start its journey to south-eastern Sindh, while moving it may lose its intensity and it may tore into different thunderstorm. The UAC will approach south-eastern Sindh by August 21 mid-day/evening. Eventually it will dissipate after 48 hours over south-eastern Sindh.
The 5th spell of monsoon will continue in the capital for 48 hours. Showers will be mostly steady with some lightening expected on August 19 night. A fresh monsoonal activity likely after 2 to 3 days.
Mercury is expected in Islamabad;
- 33°C to 35 °C in Islamabad.
In Northern Punjab: Lahore, Faisalabad, Murree, Rawalpindi, Sargodha, Sialkot and other adjoining cities. The 5th spell of monsoon will continue till August 20 mid-day and after that chances of light showers. A fresh monsoonal activity likely after 2 to 3 days.
In Northern Punjab, due to enhance monsoon activity, the temperatures found it difficult to rise and this condition is likely to continue. Following is the temperature forecast for Northern Punjab;
- 33 °C to 36 °C in Lahore.
- 38°C to 40 °C in Faisalabad.
- 28°C to 33°C in Murree.
In Southern Punjab: Bahawalpur, Multan, Rahim Yar Khan, D. G. Khan and other adjoining cities. The 5th spell of monsoon is over however chances of light showers persist till 24 hours. Some more showers could occur on August 21 and August 22.
In Southern Punjab, temperatures will be higher than Northern Punjab;
- 37 °C to 40 °C in Multan.
- 39 °C to 41 °C in Bahawalpur.
In Upper Sindh: Sukkur, Larkana, Jacobabad, Kashmore, Nawabshah and other adjoining cities. The 5th spell will begin from August 21 and continue till 48 hours. Rain will be accompanied by winds and thunder, it will be moderate in intensity.
Temperatures remained stationary in many parts of upper Sindh while few highs were recorded in few cities.
- 36 °C to 38 °C in Sukkur.
- 37 °C to 39 °C also in Larkana.
- 36 °C to 39 °C in Nawabshah.
In South-eastern Sindh: Mirpur khas, Umerkot, Tharparkar, Badin and Hyderabad. The 3rd monsoon spell will begin from August 20 late night and continue till 1 to 2 days. Rain will be accompanied by fast winds and thunder, it will be mostly moderate in intensity with chances of isolated heavy falls in some extreme eastern parts, bordering Gujarat.
Temperatures will also calm in south-eastern Sindh due to long spell of very heavy rainfall during last few days.
- 36 °C to 38 °C in Hyderabad.
In coastal Sindh: Karachi, Thatta, Keti, Shah Bandar and other coastal localities. The 3rd monsoon spell will begin from August 21 night and continue 1 to 2 days, Rain will be accompanied by fast winds and thunder, it will be moderate in intensity with chances of heavy falls in Keti Bandar and Thatta.
Due to frequent cloud over and fast winds the mercury in Karachi and other coastal cities has remained unchanged since July 1;
- 31 °C to 34°C in Karachi.
What lies ahead?-A long-range forecast from Pakistan Weather Portal (PWP)
- Widespread episode again?
“Notice: This is a long-range forecast of PWP, it will definitely change in coming days. But PWP wants to share this long-range forecast with its readers.”
More monsoon showers likely after 3 to 5 days in almost all the monsoon regions of the country with heavy rainfall expected at many places of Pakistan. It will be the 6th monsoon spell in Upper Pakistan while 4th monsoon spell in Lower Pakistan.
Death toll rises significantly since last week!!
- Death toll rises to 118 since August 17
Due to recent wave of heavy rainfall across Pakistan and flooding in Sindh the death toll has raised to 118 till August 17. PWP Media will keep you update on every weather incident in Pakistan.
Poll of the week
Pakistan Weather Portal (PWP) wants to ask its readers that;