Pakistan Weather Update & Monsoon alert (August 19 – August 26)

  • Monsoon activity in Sindh!

  • Weekend and Monsoon!

  • UAC moving westwards!

Temperature and precipitation

Sindh province has experienced its second floods in a row though they were of different nature but the people faced same problems. Record-breaking monsoon showers created a flood-like situation in south-eastern Sindh that affected some 2 Lakh people. In the north few isolated flooding events have been reported as 5th monsoon spell is coming to an end in those areas. Temperatures are likely to remain high in some areas till 48 hours especially in Sindh while humidity will remain high in the monsoon belt of the country. What lies ahead for Pakistan? Well its week-long monsoon rains for some parts.

Monsoon is now on peak intensity and is likely to start to withdraw from last week of August or first week of September in Pakistan. Overall monsoon has been below normal in many southern parts of Pakistan.

Pakistan Weather Portal (PWP)’s forecast

“Notice: This is the forecast from Pakistan Weather Portal (PWP), we are 65% confident with this prediction. There will be slight variations in our forecast as certain meteorological factors develop and fade as time passes by and these factors are too isolated to be noticed on numerical charts or models, so if any change arises then PWP will update you.”

Pakistan Weather Portal (PWP) had successfully predicted the onset of Monsoon over coastal and south-eastern Sindh on July 28 till July 30 that PWP forecasted on July 15. PWP was right on track to predict that second monsoon spell over those same areas on August 10 till August 15, PWP forecasted the second monsoon rainfall on July 29. Now all eyes on the third monsoon spell.

Pakistan Weather: August 21 - August 22 mid-day

Pakistan Weather Portal (PWP) on August 4 predicted the third monsoon rainfall. As of August 19, earlier PWP forecasted and said;

” ‘Moderate’ chances of monsoon hitting Karachi during the weekend of August.”

PWP maintains its third monsoon forecast to “moderate” and we hope that monsoon showers would start from August 21 till August 23 morning in Sindh.

The 5th monsoon spell is likely to come to end in upper Pakistan in 24 to 48 hours after that chances of light showers will continue till 2 to 3 days, during that period some temperatures could rise while humidity will rise. After those days the 6th monsoon spell will start in those areas. As for Sindh, third monsoon spell would start from August 21 and continue till 1 to 2 days. Overall it will be a short spell and after that a gap is likely.

As of 7:00 pm PST August 19, Various models, numerical charts and other meteorological parameters observed by PWP indicate that the upper air cyclonic circulations over Chhattisgarh will move to central Madya Pradesh from here it will start its journey to south-eastern Sindh, while moving it may lose its intensity and it may tore into different thunderstorm. The UAC will approach south-eastern Sindh by August 21 mid-day/evening. Eventually it will dissipate after 48 hours over south-eastern Sindh.

Islamabad

The 5th spell of monsoon will continue in the capital for 48 hours. Showers will be mostly steady with some lightening expected on August 19 night. A fresh monsoonal activity likely after 2 to 3 days.

Mercury is expected in Islamabad;

  • 33°C to 35 °C in Islamabad.

Punjab

In Northern Punjab: Lahore, Faisalabad, Murree, Rawalpindi, Sargodha, Sialkot and other adjoining cities. The 5th spell of monsoon will continue till August 20 mid-day and after that chances of light showers. A fresh monsoonal activity likely after 2 to 3 days.

In Northern Punjab, due to enhance monsoon activity, the temperatures found it difficult to rise and this condition is likely to continue. Following is the temperature forecast for Northern Punjab;

  • 33 °C to 36 °C in Lahore.
  • 38°C to 40 °C in Faisalabad.
  • 28°C to 33°C in Murree.

In Southern Punjab: Bahawalpur, Multan, Rahim Yar Khan, D. G. Khan and other adjoining cities. The 5th spell of monsoon is over however chances of light showers persist till 24 hours. Some more showers could occur on August 21 and August 22.

In Southern Punjab, temperatures will be higher than Northern Punjab;

  • 37 °C to 40 °C in Multan.
  • 39 °C to 41 °C in  Bahawalpur.

Sindh

In Upper Sindh: Sukkur, Larkana, Jacobabad, Kashmore, Nawabshah and other adjoining  cities. The 5th spell will begin from August 21 and continue till 48 hours. Rain will be accompanied by winds and thunder, it will be moderate in intensity.

Temperatures remained stationary in many parts of upper Sindh while few highs were recorded in few cities.

  • 36 °C to 38 °C in Sukkur.
  • 37 °C to 39 °C also in Larkana.
  • 36 °C to 39 °C in Nawabshah.

In South-eastern Sindh: Mirpur khas, Umerkot, Tharparkar, Badin and Hyderabad. The 3rd monsoon spell will begin from August 20 late night and continue till 1 to 2 days. Rain will be accompanied by fast winds and thunder, it will be mostly moderate in intensity with chances of isolated heavy falls in some extreme eastern parts, bordering Gujarat.

Temperatures will also calm in south-eastern Sindh due to long spell of very heavy rainfall during last few days.

  • 36 °C to 38 °C in Hyderabad.

In coastal Sindh: Karachi, Thatta, Keti, Shah Bandar and other coastal localities. The 3rd monsoon spell will begin from August 21 night and continue 1 to 2 days, Rain will be accompanied by fast winds and thunder, it will be moderate in intensity with chances of heavy falls in Keti Bandar and Thatta.

Due to frequent cloud over and fast winds the mercury in Karachi and other coastal cities has remained unchanged since July 1;

  • 31 °C to 34°C in Karachi.
Overall the temperatures are very likely to remain in a comfort zone due to fresh monsoon activity in Sindh, while temperatures could slightly rise in the country after August 22 night .

What lies ahead?-A long-range forecast from Pakistan Weather Portal (PWP)

  • Widespread episode again?

“Notice: This is a long-range forecast of PWP, it will definitely change in coming days. But PWP wants to share this long-range forecast with its readers.”

More monsoon showers likely after 3 to 5 days in almost all the monsoon regions of the country with heavy rainfall expected at many places of Pakistan. It will be the 6th monsoon spell in Upper Pakistan while 4th monsoon spell in Lower Pakistan.

Death toll rises significantly since last week!!

  • Death toll rises to 118 since August 17

Due to recent wave of heavy rainfall across Pakistan and flooding in Sindh the death toll has raised to 118 till August 17. PWP Media will keep you update on every weather incident in Pakistan.

Poll of the week

Pakistan Weather Portal (PWP) wants to ask its readers that;

240 replies to “Pakistan Weather Update & Monsoon alert (August 19 – August 26)”

  1. I just h0pe this forecast c0mes true.

    @KM :

    Are there chances of isolated heavy falls over Karachi

    1. As of now..no…but if we look at a bigger picture then few but short isolated heavy falls could occur in the areas that are near to Thatta… But there are no chances as of now…

  2. Why Multan is too unfortunate as compared to Lahore in case of rains? Why we Multanis get too low rains? Why the weather of Multan is usually hot? Please Babar bro answer these ques. As I remember we got only one موسلا دھار rain in current monsoon season whereas Lahore got thousands of them.

    1. Multan is situated in the hot belt of Pakistan, it is too south than Lahore which is in North… The climate of Lahore is more wet than Multan, also the path of westerlies is usually from Lahore to north-west India…also there is a dry and continental air that remains dominated in lower Pakistan ie Multan too..

  8. :)

    Tomorrow night: Thunderstorms. Low 78F. Winds WSW at 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 80%.

    Monday: Thunderstorms. High 87F. Winds WSW at 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 80%.

  14. @KM :

    Nimbus clouds c0ming fr0m the East and they’re intensifying into CUMULONIMBUS clouds.
    I think thunderst0rms are devel0ping near Karachi.

  17. It’s g0nna rain in ab0ut 30 minutes INSHA’ALLAH.

    @EVERYONE :

    Look at the CLOUDS at East.

  18. @KM :

    They’ve f0rmed i think Mr.KM :s

    The sky is pitch black in the East near my area .

      1. Power breakdown likely to happen here, sorry for this problem. But chances of rainfall likely in Karachi till 36 hours.. I hope power breakdown does not happen..

  32. how mani hrs will it rai or its predictd to rain and how long will this system will on karachi K.M??

  34. Babar bhai abhi Mirpurkhas city m light rain ho rahi hai kya koi heavy rain ho sakti hai is speel m ya next speel jo k thursday se start hony k chances hein???

  39. Karachi :
    Temperature : 29C
    Pressure : 1004mb
    Condition : Strong Thunderstorms.
    Wind : 22km/h Northeast.

  40. @KM :

    Is there a 4th spell f0r Karachi ????
    If yes, then when is it g0nna start ?
    I think fr0m friday.

  43. I wana know keh is this system dissapating ??? cuz while its coming the strong dark clouds are vanishing as they pass over khi???

  44. Karachi :

    “LAST UPDATED SUNDAY 16:00 PST”
    Temperature : 26c.
    Condition : Strong Thunderstorms.
    Wind : 9km/h South-southeast.
    Pressure : 1003mb.
    Visibility : 3km.

    …..

  49. moderate rain started in my area again….!!!! is heavy rain expected Karachi metro…..!!! sky is completely dark……….

  51. And can you post a radar pic of the tthunderstorm which is over Khi as im eager to know the size and the track of it please !!!!!

  52. can you post a radar picture of the thunderstorm which is over KHI as im eager to know please !!!!!!

  53. so kaun kaun keh raha tha k 21st ko barish nahi honi , KM , fragmantic ? u guys happy now ? :P

  57. @KM :

    Is the fresh l0w pressure that might f0rm near Orissa c0ast in the next few days expected to bring 4th spell to Karachi ?

  59. yr babar bai ye galt ha k hr koi khta ha k yah rain ha yah nai ab hme kia pata kaha rain ha kaha nai hr dost apna area b type krlia kre plzzzzzzzzzzz comment dayte waqt.DOSTO M I RITE

  63. @EVERYONE :

    OMG yar just look at the heavy and beautiful CUMULONIMBUS clouds c0ming fr0m the EAST.
    My l0cation is safurah.

  67. I can hear very l0ud THUNDEr.
    I think it’s really g0nna rain today.

    *INSHA’ALLAH*

  81. Karachi metro,sir when will 4rt spell start in karachi and how days it will continue?and intensity?

  84. Heavy rain occured here at safurah, the dr0plets were so thick that they felt like hails :D

  85. Fact
    2006 and 2008 monsoon ended before August 22 in Karachi while 2007 monsoon ended on August 23. Monsoon 2009 ended on August 31. Monsoon 2011 likely to continue till end of August.

    1. rains shall continue till mid september , thats wat windfarms suggestion so far , heavy rains from 26th august …

  86. @KM :

    What would be the intensity of the 4th spell in Karachi.
    light to moderate OR moderate to light ?

  91. ^ mate u crib soo much , this is all we want pls keep that in mind karachi cannot bare heavy falls we simply dont have any defense against it , cant u see the situation in badin and adjoining areas … the upcoming spell shall be massive so far … just pray for peaceful rains karachi is going thru soo much , rains distraction will only make our lives worse …

  92. The upc0ming spell shall be massive ?
    Km is saying s0mething opposite to massive.
    So, are you c0rrect or baber bhai ?

    1. u both were saying opposite to 21st rains , but that went wrong , i prepcast heavy rains on 26th july jab k km said there shall be nothing but drizzle on that day and as per him that system was bound to dissipate on 25th but u saw wat happened it only rained on 26th july and not a single drop fell on 23-25th … yet again this time same thing happened he and u were highly opposite to latest spell which went wrong :P … just tell why would u upgrade ur dash board msg from chances of MODERATE to EXTREMELY HIGH within an hour ??? and that hour where dark clouds and rains were already reported at outskirts of city , im not trying to say / prove that i know everything and im the thing king , no sir im just a noob but a smart one … there weren’t any official update for this spell hence it was well played , all im trying to say is stop looking @ IMD or TMD or meh meh meh try to learn the real thing =p , so far as per my windfarms reading experience coming spell seems good and heavy but as we all know things can change in coming but not within an hour like happened on this very blog 2 days ago , yes it is weather but still u can’t change / modify things this fast if u know wats coming it can be predicted withi high accuracy 48hours before … PEACE no hard feelings :D

  93. I just h0pe that you r c0rrect jackie =p
    I don’t want massive 245mm rain like 2009 neither badin or mithi like rains, i just want m0derate rains to last l0nger, not f0r only 2 minutes :X

    1. I Believe my above post some up preety much of ur queries … just wait and pray for peaceful rains everyone

      @ fragmantic : u pray for those suzuki-alto-columbus clouds showing up :D

    2. im human and not some weather genius , 20% im rite 80% im wrong , like everyone here … i shall update as things become bit mature in coming days… just keep that in mind things can change and will surely change

      1. Jackie I did not say that drizzle would occur or no rain would occur on August 21… I do not remember saying anything like what you have said…I forgot to upgrade the monsoon forecast from moderate to high then beyond, so I corrected it later….In fact according to you, every spell is heavy, All we karachiites see is that 5-30 mm rainfall has occurred which is not heavy at all, they are isolated moderate… I never said that the 1st monsoon spell would be over on July 25, I said that it will reach Sindh around July 24 or July 25 and would be in dissipating stages, and the thunderstorm dissipated on July 26 night. after giving light showers in the evening… I even uploaded a map which showed that chances of rainfall are from August 21 till August 22…so how could you say that I was saying no rainfall on these days, please do not try to change the colour of statements I give and try to show my statements in a wrong way and that by changing their statements, like you did… and you said in the end ” just keep that in mind things can change and will surely change”, that is correct, but if I say these things then you will tell me that my predictions have went wrong??? look Jackie I do not have super computers or a staff of 200 people like PMD or IMD, i do what weather bloggers do around the world so if you think that your better than every body, obviously you are saying that you are not but your statements clearly shows the opposite..then please dont come here because I will do what I used to do before with my London weather blog and now this with PWP…

  95. All Models Of weather are showing Heavy Rain Spell starting from 25th August In All Over Sindh ! Karachi Metro Clear me that ? what will going to be on 25th august in Sindh ?

  96. khair hia KM dont cry … u r doing a good job and i appreciate that =p , coming back to the topic 26th is center stage =p

  99. @KM :

    Is the fresh UAC over Utter Pradesh expected to bring the 4th spell to Karachi ?

    1. It might send monsoon moisture… its intensity as of now is still moderate…. but with chances of isolated heavy falls…
      1.Light spell = drizzle/light showers mostly while few might be moderate… (Monsoon 2011 karachi so far)
      2. Moderate spell = most rainfall will be moderate while few might be heavy but isolated. (July 2010 monsoon Karachi)
      3. Heavy spell = most rainfall will be heavy while few might be very heavy but isolated (monsoon 2009 karachi, July 18 and August 31)
      4. and Beyond…
      Hope this explains the category…

Comments are closed.

close-alt close collapse comment ellipsis expand gallery heart lock menu next pinned previous reply search share star