January, the most coldest month in the country is about to end with good level of precipitation recorded in Pakistan. Though the intensity was weak to moderate but the number of rainy days were greater than compared to December. In Sindh including the city of lights (Karachi), due to the atmospheric conditions prevailing in the region the rainfall as been below normal.
Other than the cold waves and dry continental air, western systems is expected to influence the weather over the country in coming days, a large western disturbance 16 would affect many parts of the country on January 21, PWP forecasted WD 16 on January 13. This western system would affect Balochistan, Sindh, Khyber, Punjab, Gilgit and Kashmir. There were five western systems in October (highest) while four in November and December.
The readers of PWP always share their views and forecasts with us thus we shall show you some of them here;
Shoaib Iqbal: Another upcoming western disturbance ready to badly affect Balochistan, NWFP, Kashmir to Punjab etc. No precipitation for Karachi is observed.
Talha Mahmood: Uptill now five sources indicate that Second Winter rain-showers would occur in Karachi on coming Saturday late night and Sunday.
Nadir Khaskheli: If rainfall increases then cold wave also effect Pakistan.
Waseem Ahmed: Clouds in Gulf region moving fast eastwards; these clouds may reach Makran, Baluchistan overnight, chance of rain there from early tomorrow.
Western Disturbance in January
- Western disturbance 14, the first rainy wave of January reached the country on January 3 till January 8, showers with varying intensity occurred across the country. Drizzle occurred in Karachi on January 5 while isolated shower occurred in Lahore on January 6. WD 14 caused rare snowfall at Margalla hills after six years.
- Western disturbance 15 affected the country on January 13 till January 17, moderate showers occurred in Islamabad and Peshawar.
Western Disturbance 16: What does it hold for Pakistan?
Pakistan Weather Portal (PWP) forecasts that WD 16 would enter the western parts that is Balochistan covering the whole western part of the province extending till the Makran coast as it continues to move eastwards the dry air prevailing over the Sindh would tear the system into the two parts. The parent area that would be the main centre of the weather system would start to move towards the northern areas of the country from January 21/22 while the stray part would move along the Makran coast and adjoining Arabian sea towards the Sindh coast.
WD 16: A ray of hope in Sindh!
The dry air would be replaced by the moisture laden-winds in Sindh from January 21 night till January 22 night, during that period isolated shower may occurr in Karachi, Hyderabad, Jamshoro and few upper parts of the province that is Sukkur and Nawabshah.
The humid and coastal winds would dominate for Karachi thus the temperatures would rise again during that period. So Karachiites get ready for humid winds!
WD 16: To cool down the hot political temperature in the capital!
Islamabadis have raised the temperature of the city during the past few weeks but nature would bring down the temperature with cool winds and rainfall. Rainfall is expected in Islamabad from January 21 night till January 23 while snowfall is expected in Murree.
WD 16: To show strength in Balochistan!
If we look that what western disturbance 16 has the potential to do in Balochistan then it would be quiet amazing as WD 16 at the time of entering Balochistan could drop heavy level of precipitation with strong winds (45 km/h – 56 km/h). Heavy snowfall is also expected in the province that could cause some damage in the province. WD 16 would start to affect Balochistan from January 20 night/January 21 morning/
Balochistan which suffers even due to light rainfall as seen last year, could suffer again due to the upcoming weather in the province. PWP advises the people in Balochistan to take precaution during the time of rainfall and snowfall.
WD 16: Brief News!
The other cities where there are chances of showers include Lahore, Multan, Peshawar and Rawalpindi.
Western Disturbance 17 eyeing Pakistan?
Pakistan Weather Portal (PWP) wants to share some more future weather events in Pakistan. WD 17 might affect the country during last week of the month. So will there be four western waves in January?
Yes, fresh activity is coming to Pakistan! – Issued on January 22
The answer of the above question is Yes, western disturbance 17 would affect the country this week. WD 17 appears to be following a similar path to WD 16 and it is likely to affect same areas which WD 16 did.
Track of Western Disturbance 17
The fresh WD would enter Pakistan from Iran, western wave is expected to enter western Pakistan mainly Balochistan on January 23 night/January 24 morning extending till Makran coast however showers/drizzle in some parts of Balochistan province may continue with occasional gap due to the moisture left by WD 16.
As shown in the PWP map, WD 17 would track North-easterly into India from January 26 and its final destination would be Nepal, it would reach Nepal by January 27 mid-day.
Where rainfall is expected now?
Western Disturbance 17 will cause showers with snowfall in many parts of Balochistan from January 24. Rainfall with snow is also expected in Quetta till January 25. After that WD would be extending till upper parts of the country and there would be chances of more snowfall in Murree and Gilgit from January 25/26 during that period rainfall could occur in Islamabad, Rawalpindi while there would also be chances of drizzle/isolated shower in Lahore and Multan.
Where is Karachi in all of this?
As the western disturbance 17 would be entering Balochistan its trough would extend till Makran coast that would start to tear away from the main centre on January 24 as it will move towards Sindh, Karachi, Hyderabad, Jamshoro and Nawabshah may get isolated shower/drizzle on January 24 to January 25 morning. Rainfall is also expected in upper parts of Sindh that include Sukkur, Jacobabad and Larkana during that period.
However south-eastern Sindh that includes Mirpur Khas district would mainly remain dry with passing clouds as WD 17 is not being expected to have direct influence over that part of the province.
Western Disturbance 18 in formation?
WD 17 is like a twin brother of WD 16 that might cause a repeat of everything that happened few days ago. Will WD 18 do the same? Is WD 18 coming too? There are some indications that WD 18 might be coming around February 1.