Sindh’s wait is over or not?
Another rain spell in northern areas!
Western winds – A good neighbour?
Pakistan Weather Portal (PWP) had successfully predicted the onset of monsoon (1st spell) over the northern areas during the late first week of July. PWP on June 25 forecasted these rains and on July 3 gave their arrival time on July 6/July 7. Monsoon brought scattered moderate downpours to many parts of northern areas as it advanced into Islamabad and Lahore. Monsoon would now shift its focus to central and southern parts in coming few days. Sharp pre-monsoon drizzle occurred in Karachi during the early hours of July 8, this activity started from July 5.
The first monsoon spell started from July 7 and would last till July 10, although its intensity has decreased significantly since the last 24 hours due to weakening of monsoon in the north-western parts of India and disturbance in the activity in the western winds. The second spell would start from July 11 and last till four days with variations in different parts of the country.
Whats going to happen now?
Rainfall started from the early hours of July 7 and they gained peak intensity during the morning of July 8. On July 8, the northern and the central parts of the country experienced scattered moderate showers while some areas got isolated heavy rainfall. Western disturbance ’12’ entered the northern areas of Pakistan on July 6, it brought moisture in the northern as well as the central areas. WD 12 helped the monsoon to advance into the upper parts of the country.
Following is the rainfall that occurred in some cities of Pakistan till July 9;
- Sargodha got 75 mm.
- Risalpur got 57 mm.
- Jhang got 53 mm.
- Faisalabad got 51 mm.
- Saidu Sharif got 51 mm.
- Murree got 49 mm.
- Jhelum got 48 mm.
- Rawalpindi got 48 mm.
- Islamabad got 45 mm.
- Multan got 15 mm.
- Lahore got 0.5 mm.
Monsoon failing to grip entire India
Will rainfall occur in Karachi?
Much awaited Low pressure is here!
Monsoon disappoints Indians
The aging monsoon finally advanced into the capital of India on July 6, New Delhi after a week delay. The monsoon winds have gripped almost every part of north-western India however some extreme western parts are yet to experience rains.
Monsoon is yet to grip entire India, it is likely that it would do so around July 15 as fresh another cyclonic circulations would boost rains over the central parts while widespread heavy downpours are also expected along the eastern coast of India before July 15. However rainfall have been 30% below normal in the entire country till now.
Pakistan Weather Portal (PWP)’s forecast
“Notice: This is the forecast from Pakistan Weather Portal (PWP), we are 75% confident with this prediction. There will be slight variations in our forecast as certain meteorological factors develop and fade as time passes by and these factors are too isolated to be noticed on numerical charts or models. According to various meteorological parameters this forecast has been made.”
Forecast would be revised on July 10, if any new developments happens
Pakistan Conditions: Outlook for possible return of rains.
Latest satellite image as of July 9 indicates that low pressure over Madya Pradesh is moving in a WSW direction, if it keeps moving in such a direction then it would move towards Sindh. High level clouds have already started affecting south-eastern Sindh. Under the influence of this low pressure, a well developed thunderstorm has also formed over central Balochistan that is moving into Iran. Another has formed over central parts of Pakistan, however this thundercloud has minimum strength. Keeping certain meteorological parameters in mind as of July 9, PWP forecasts;
‘Moderate’ chances of monsoon hitting Sindh late this week.”
As of 8:00 pm PKT July 9, Various models, numerical charts and other meteorological parameters observed by PWP indicate that;
*The upper air cyclonic circulations that formed over Jharkhand on July 7 moved into Madya Pradesh on July 8. On the mid-day of July 9, it intensified into a low pressure over the same area as it remained stationary. This low pressure is expected to start to move in a west-south-west direction from July 9 night/July 10 morning. By the mid-day/night of July 10, it should be over north-eastern Gujarat state and adjoining Rajasthan. On July 11, it would be dissipation stages over south-eastern Sindh and adjoining Gujarat and would disperse the on July 11 night/July 12, however moisture incursion would take place in the country from this weather system. This weather system is moving in a fast speed and it is not likely to dump any extreme rainfall unlike last year.”
*Monsoon winds would shift towards lower parts of the country; rains could re-organize in upper areas. Well-developed thunderstorms could affect the northern areas during the late this week and middle of July.
Following is the weather forecast that is expected;
Although the current spell of rains is weakening, a second monsoon spell would start from July 10 night/July 11 night. Rainfall with moderate with chances of isolated heavy falls. Rain will be accompanied by thunder and fast winds.
Mercury is expected in Islamabad;
- 35°C to 39 °C in Islamabad.
In Northern Punjab: Lahore, Faisalabad, Murree, Rawalpindi, Sargodha, Sialkot and other adjoining cities. The second spell of monsoon would start from July 11/July 12. The effect of 1st spell is weakening in the northern areas and would further weaken by July 10 morning. Rainfall with moderate falls is expected. Rain will be accompanied by thunder and fast winds.
Following is the temperature forecast for Northern Punjab;
- 34 °C to 37 °C in Lahore.
- 42°C to 46 °C in Faisalabad.
- 28°C to 33°C in Murree.
In Southern Punjab: Bahawalpur, Multan, Rahim Yar Khan, D. G. Khan and other adjoining cities. Pre-monsoon showers are expected till 48 hours while there are chances that the actual monsoon could advance into this part from July 13 till July 16. Rainfall with moderate showers. Rain will be accompanied by thunder.
In Southern Punjab, temperatures will be higher than Northern Punjab;
- 36 °C to 45 °C in Multan.
- 37 °C to 44 °C in Bahawalpur.
In Upper Sindh: Sukkur, Larkana, Jacobabad, Kashmore, Nawabshah and other adjoining cities. The 1st monsoon spell could begin from July 11/July12. The rains would be short-lived, they will be accompanied by winds and thunder, it will be light in intensity with slim chances of moderate falls.
Temperatures remained stationary in many parts of upper Sindh while few highs were recorded in few cities.
- 40 °C to 43 °C in Sukkur.
- 41 °C to 43 °C also in Larkana.
- 35 °C to 42 °C in Nawabshah.
In South-eastern Sindh: Mirpur khas, Umerkot, Tharparkar, Badin and Hyderabad. The 1st monsoon spell could begin from July 10 late/July 11. Rain will be accompanied by fast winds and thunder, it will be mostly moderate in intensity with slim chances (5%) of isolated heavy falls in some extreme eastern parts, bordering Gujarat especially Tharparkar district.
Temperatures will also remain calm in south-eastern Sindh.
- 34 °C to 39 °C in Hyderabad.
In coastal Sindh: Karachi, Thatta, Keti, Shah Bandar and other coastal localities. The 1st monsoon spell could begin from July 11/July 12 and continue till 48 hours, it will be mostly light in intensity with moderate falls.
Due to frequent cloud over and fast winds the mercury in Karachi and other coastal cities has remained unchanged since July 1;
- 33 °C to 36°C in Karachi.
Poll of the week
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