Heavy rainfall in Punjab to continue!
Drought – Rain ‘must’ lash Karachi now
Monsoon coming to an end?
The month of August is coming to an end and it seems as it the monsoon has finally come to know that its duty is to pour water frequently. Getting a much awaited boost from the new weather system which formed on August 15 in the Bay of Bengal and intensified further the next day, the weather system formed as the remnants of Typhoon Kai-Tak were moving westwards near northern Assam (Indian state). Much of the country has remained under the grip of clouds while rains have occurred in northern parts, the central and southern parts are still awaiting their first proper monsoon rainfall.
Factors: Present conditions
*Low pressure over north-western India as of August 22.
*Trough of weak western disturbance ’18’ is passing over south-western China near Pakistani border.
*Upper air cyclonic circulation is over Gujarat and adjoining area as of August 22.
Condition has improved?
They have not improved but a ‘slight’ positive developments have occurred during the formation of this low pressure and the last one. Central parts of Pakistan that is south Punjab saw its highest rainfall of the current monsoon season that was 69 mm in Bahawalpur on August 16 and August 17 as fifth spell was over the area but still more needs to be done to overcome the dry July factor. Northern parts of the country have received meaningful rainfall during some spells which are mentioned below;
Fourth spell (July 25 – July 28)
Though it was weak in intensity however on July 26 it caused significant rainfall in Sialkot;
- Sialkot got 126 mm.
Sixth spell (August 3 – August 5)
This was probably the first proper monsoon spell of the current year, the spell brought significant rainfall (scattered heavy downpour) to many parts of northern Punjab on August 4;
- Islamabad got 142 mm.
- Gujranwala got 123 mm.
- Lahore got 110 mm.
- Mangla got 103 mm.
- Chakwal got 97 mm.
- Rawalpindi got 75 mm.
However still more rain needs to pour to get rid of drought. Pakistan Weather Portal (PWP) on July 28 told that Pakistan is going into drought.
Pakistan Weather Portal (PWP)’s forecast
“Notice: This is the forecast from Pakistan Weather Portal (PWP), we are 70% confident with this prediction. There will be slight variations in our forecast as certain meteorological factors develop and fade as time passes by and these factors are too isolated to be noticed on numerical charts or models. According to various meteorological parameters this forecast has been made.”
- The Article was slightly updated on August 22, if would be updated if necessary!
Pakistan Weather Portal (PWP) successfully predicted the onset of all monsoon spells in northern parts of the country while central parts received rain around the predicted date. PWP experienced difficulty in predicting the second and the third spell in Sindh which only affected the south-eastern and adjoining upper parts of Sindh with weak intensity however other spells were forecasted successfully.
As of 9:00 pm PKT August 20, Various models, numerical charts and other meteorological parameters observed by PWP for the track of low pressure indicates that;
*The upper air cyclonic circulations over north-west Bay of Bengal that formed on August 15 intensified into a low pressure on August 17 and moved sharply westwards. On August 19, it was over Chatisgarh and adjoining Madya Pradesh while on next day it was over Madya Pradesh. Now the system is expected to weaken by August 21 and continue to move westwards/slight WNW, it could send from thunderstorms to Punjab. The exact date dissipation varies from model to model.
On August 22, the low pressure was over South Utter Pradesh and adjoining Haryana and eastern Rajasthan as it moved in a WNW direction and weakened.
Ninth monsoon spell (August 20 – August 25/August 26)
“Warning: There are 75% chance of more scattered heavy downpours over Azad Kashmir adjoining northern Punjab and Islamabad as per few models till August 22. Urban flooding could occur in these areas especially on August 21/August 22.“
The ninth spell that in the northern half started from August 20 has already brought scattered heavy downpours to parts of northern Punjab and Azad Kashmir, the rainfall that was recorded on August 20 is given below;
- Muzaffarabad got 163 mm.
- Rawalpindi got 127 mm.
- Murree got 101 mm.
The federal capital got 30 mm rainfall on August 20 mid-day. More rain is likely in the capital as heavy downpours are likely on August 21/August 22. The ninth spell would continue till five days with decrease in strength after August 23. Rain will be accompanied by thunder/lightning and strong winds.
Mercury is expected in Islamabad;
- 31°C to 34 °C in Islamabad.
In Northern Punjab: Lahore, Faisalabad, Murree, Gujranwal, Rawalpindi, Sargodha, Sialkot and other adjoining cities. The ninth spell of monsoon will till few days. Rainfall will be isolated heavy in intensity with chances of scattered heavy downpour till 48 hours. Rain will be accompained by thunder and fast winds.
Following is the temperature forecast for Northern Punjab;
- 32 °C to 35 °C in Lahore.
- 38°C to 41 °C in Faisalabad.
- 27°C to 32°C in Murree.
Ninth spell as of August 22
Following is the heaviest rainfall that occurred in some cities of northern areas from August 20 till August 22 morning;
- Muzaffarabad got 276 mm rainfall.
- Murree got 187 mm rainfall.
- Rawalpindi got 157 mm rainfall.
- Kakul got 124 mm rainfall.
Sixth monsoon spell
In Southern Punjab: Bahawalpur, Bahawalnagar, Multan, Rahim Yar Khan, D. G. Khan and other adjoining cities. There are chances of rainfall/showers on August 23/August 24 as sixth spell would enter the area. Hence PWP upgrades the chance of sixth spell hitting south Punjab from ‘very high‘ to ‘extremely high’.
In Southern Punjab, temperatures will be higher than Northern Punjab;
- 34 °C to 39°C in Multan.
- 35 °C to 38 °C in Bahawalpur.
Fifth monsoon spell
In Upper Sindh: Sukkur, Larkana, Jacobabad, Kashmore, Nawabshah and other adjoining cities. Passing clouds are expected in the area with chances of showers on August 23/August 24, fast winds could also occur. Hence PWP upgrades the chance of fifth monsoon spell in Sindh from ‘moderate’ to ‘high’.
Temperatures remained stationary in many parts of upper Sindh while few highs were recorded in few cities.
- 38 °C to 41 °C in Sukkur.
- 37 °C to 39 °C also in Larkana.
- 35 °C to 38 °C in Nawabshah.
In South-eastern Sindh: Mirpur khas, Umerkot, Tharparkar, Badin and Hyderabad. The fifth monsoon spell could cause showers/light rain in this part as well on August 23 evening/August 24 with thunder/lightning, drizzle could occur on August 22 night as monsoon moisture is moving towards Sindh.
Temperatures are mostly stationary in this part due to absence of heat waves and rains.
- 35 °C to 38 °C in Hyderabad.
In coastal Sindh: Karachi, Thatta, Keti, Shah Bandar and other coastal localities. There are chances of isolated showers in coastal parts during the same period that August 23 night/August 24.
Due to frequent cloud over and fast winds the mercury in Karachi and other coastal cities has remained unchanged since July 1;
- 31 °C to 34°C in Karachi.
Pakistan Weather Update & Monsoon Alert (August 27 – September 3)
Last two weeks of August has seen meaningful rains over the sub-continent as the atmospheric rain-blocking conditions (visible on few charts) over the central and southern parts of Pakistan have started weakening (still present). Central and southern parts could witness some rainfall before the monsoon ends while central parts have already received showers with isolated moderate falls. The atmospheric conditions had become favourable for heavy rainfall over the northern areas during the second week of August. Following is the amount of rainfall recorded during the ninth spell in the northern areas from August 20 till August 27;
- Muzaffarabad got 319 mm.
- Rawalpindi got 273 mm.
- Murree got 225 mm.
- Mandi-Bahaddin got 165 mm.
- Balakot got 148 mm.
- Islamabad got 144 mm.
- Abbottabad got 142 mm.
- Sialkot got 120 mm.
- Kotli got 119 mm.
The ninth spell has weakened and would end in some parts on August 28 but it would continue in some eastern parts of northern areas till August 29/August 30 where rainfall with thunder/lightning could occur. Following are the current weather systems in the region;
*Trough of western disturbance ’18’ is over the extreme northern areas of the country.
*Upper air cyclonic circulation over north Rajasthan and adjoining area.
*Coastal trough over the western coast of India.
*Low pressure over north Chhattisgarh, it could move slightly in a WSW direction.
Tenth monsoon spell – North
Pakistan Weather Portal (PWP) forecasts the tenth spell in northern areas to ‘very high’ during the first week of September. Its intensity could be relatively weaker than the ninth spell as major thunderstorms would not form. Tenth spell would affect Islamabad, Peshawar, Lahore, Faisalabad, Murree, Gujranwal, Rawalpindi, Sargodha, Sialkot and other adjoining cities.
Seventh monsoon spell – Central
As of now there are not much mature chances of the seventh monsoon spell in central areas that is south Punjab. The sixth spell would continue till August 28 while few eastern areas could witness one or two isolated showers till August 30 after that the sixth spell would insignificant.
Fifth monsoon spell – South
Pakistan Weather Portal (PWP) had earlier forecasted that the fifth spell would enter Sindh on August 23 or August 24 and could cause isolated showers, it did not happen but on August 25 many parts of Karachi experienced isolated shower that continued till the night of August 26 with few sunny gaps. Since the quantity was unmeasured therefore PWP did not declare the 5th spell over Sindh.
Now there are chances of rain/showers in some parts of Sindh on August 28 night/August 29 till August 30/August 31 morning/mid-day. There are chances of rain/showers in Karachi, Thatta, Keti, Shah Bandar, Mirpur khas, Umerkot, Tharparkar, Badin, Hyderabad, Sukkur, Larkana, Jacobabad, Kashmore, Nawabshah. Since the atmospheric conditions are still not favourable for any major rainfall therefore the rain/showers would be mostly stable with moderate rainfall with slim chances of isolated heavy falls in coastal and south-eastern Sindh only. Hence PWP upgrades the fifth spell from ‘moderate’ to ‘high’.
Monsoon deaths – Sharply rises!
Monsoon deaths that started from the first week of August has risen to 29 in Pakistan after urban flooding in parts of northern areas as of August 27.
El-Nino weakened but not over!
El-Nino has slightly weakened as temperatures in the Pacific ocean have slightly decreased but such development is for short period of time as temperatures would once again rise and El-Nino conditions would strengthen in months to come.
Monsoon to start withdrawing!
There are few models and charts that indicate that monsoon would remain some what active till the end of August and during the first week of September it may start to withdraw from the western parts of sub-continent. However it is a little early to talk about the withdrawing phase!
One thing is clear that is rain ‘must’ occur in Sindh including Karachi before the season ends. The province cannot suffer another disaster!
Poll of the week
Pakistan Weather Portal (PWP) wants Karachiites to show their support for rain. As of August 27, 90% support it while 9% do not like such idea. Your support does bring change in weather (showers on August 25 in Karachi)!