Pakistan Weather Update & Monsoon Alert (August 20 – September 3) – Updated on August 27!

  • Heavy rainfall in Punjab to continue!

  • Drought – Rain ‘must’ lash Karachi now

  • Monsoon coming to an end?

The month of August is coming to an end and it seems as it the monsoon has finally come to know that its duty is to pour water frequently. Getting a much awaited boost from the new weather system which formed on August 15 in the Bay of Bengal and intensified further the next day, the weather system formed as the remnants of Typhoon Kai-Tak were moving westwards near northern Assam (Indian state). Much of the country has remained under the grip of clouds while rains have occurred in northern parts, the central and southern parts are still awaiting their first proper monsoon rainfall.

Typical satellite image of Central India during monsoon

Factors: Present conditions

*Low pressure over north-western India as of August 22.

*Trough of weak western disturbance ’18’ is passing over south-western China near Pakistani border.

*Upper air cyclonic circulation is over Gujarat and adjoining area as of August 22.

Condition has improved?

They have not improved but a ‘slight’ positive developments have occurred during the formation of this low pressure and the last one. Central parts of Pakistan that is south Punjab saw its highest rainfall of the current monsoon season that was 69 mm in Bahawalpur on August 16 and August 17 as fifth spell was over the area but still more needs to be done to overcome the dry July factor. Northern parts of the country have received meaningful rainfall during some spells which are mentioned below;

Fourth spell (July 25 – July 28)

Though it was weak in intensity however on July 26 it caused significant rainfall in Sialkot;

  • Sialkot got 126 mm.

Sixth spell (August 3 – August 5)

This was probably the first proper monsoon spell of the current year, the spell brought significant rainfall (scattered heavy downpour) to many parts of northern Punjab on August 4;

  • Islamabad got 142 mm.
  • Gujranwala got 123 mm.
  • Lahore got 110 mm.
  • Mangla got 103 mm.
  • Chakwal got 97 mm.
  • Rawalpindi got 75 mm.

However still more rain needs to pour to get rid of drought. Pakistan Weather Portal (PWP) on July 28 told that Pakistan is going into drought.

Pakistan Weather Portal (PWP)’s forecast

“Notice: This is the forecast from Pakistan Weather Portal (PWP), we are 70% confident with this prediction. There will be slight variations in our forecast as certain meteorological factors develop and fade as time passes by and these factors are too isolated to be noticed on numerical charts or models. According to various meteorological parameters this forecast has been made.”

  • The Article was slightly updated on August 22, if would be updated if necessary!

Conditions on August 21

Pakistan Weather Portal (PWP) successfully predicted the onset of all monsoon spells in northern parts of the country while central parts received rain around the predicted date. PWP experienced difficulty in predicting the second and the third spell in Sindh which only affected the south-eastern and adjoining upper parts of Sindh with weak intensity however other spells were forecasted successfully.

As of 9:00 pm PKT August 20, Various models, numerical charts and other meteorological parameters observed by PWP for the track of low pressure indicates that;

*The upper air cyclonic circulations over north-west Bay of Bengal that formed on August 15 intensified into a low pressure on August 17 and moved sharply westwards. On August 19, it was over Chatisgarh and adjoining Madya Pradesh while on next day it was over Madya Pradesh. Now the system is expected to weaken by August 21 and continue to move westwards/slight WNW, it could send from thunderstorms to Punjab. The exact date dissipation varies from model to model.

On August 22, the low pressure was over South Utter Pradesh and adjoining Haryana and eastern Rajasthan as it moved in a WNW direction and weakened.

Ninth monsoon spell (August 20 – August 25/August 26)

The circled area shows possible above 100 mm.

“Warning: There are 75% chance of more scattered heavy downpours over Azad Kashmir adjoining northern Punjab and Islamabad as per few models till August 22. Urban flooding could occur in these areas especially on August 21/August 22.

The ninth spell that in the northern half started from August 20 has already brought scattered heavy downpours to parts of northern Punjab and Azad Kashmir, the rainfall that was recorded on August 20 is given below;

  • Muzaffarabad got 163 mm.
  • Rawalpindi got 127 mm.
  • Murree got 101 mm.

Islamabad

The federal capital got 30 mm rainfall on August 20 mid-day. More rain is likely in the capital as heavy downpours are likely on August 21/August 22. The ninth spell would continue till five days with decrease in strength after August 23. Rain will be accompanied by thunder/lightning and strong winds.

Mercury is expected in Islamabad;

  • 31°C to 34 °C in Islamabad.

Punjab

In Northern Punjab: Lahore, Faisalabad, Murree, Gujranwal, Rawalpindi, Sargodha, Sialkot and other adjoining cities. The ninth spell of monsoon will till few days. Rainfall will be isolated heavy in intensity with chances of scattered heavy downpour till 48 hours. Rain will be accompained by thunder and fast winds.

Following is the temperature forecast for Northern Punjab;

  • 32 °C to 35 °C in Lahore.
  • 38°C to 41 °C in Faisalabad.
  • 27°C to 32°C in Murree.

Ninth spell as of August 22

Following is the heaviest rainfall that occurred in some cities of northern areas from August 20 till August 22 morning;

  • Muzaffarabad got 276 mm rainfall.
  • Murree got 187 mm rainfall.
  • Rawalpindi got 157 mm rainfall.
  • Kakul got 124 mm rainfall.

Sixth monsoon spell 

Islamabad on the morning of August 20

In Southern Punjab: Bahawalpur, Bahawalnagar, Multan, Rahim Yar Khan, D. G. Khan and other adjoining cities. There are chances of rainfall/showers on August 23/August 24 as sixth spell would enter the area. Hence PWP upgrades the chance of sixth spell hitting south Punjab from ‘very high‘ to ‘extremely high’.

In Southern Punjab, temperatures will be higher than Northern Punjab;

  • 34 °C to 39°C in Multan.
  • 35 °C to 38 °C in  Bahawalpur.

Fifth monsoon spell 

Sindh

In Upper Sindh: Sukkur, Larkana, Jacobabad, Kashmore, Nawabshah and other adjoining  cities. Passing clouds are expected in the area with chances of showers on August 23/August 24, fast winds could also occur. Hence PWP upgrades the chance of fifth monsoon spell in Sindh from ‘moderate’ to ‘high’.

Temperatures remained stationary in many parts of upper Sindh while few highs were recorded in few cities.

  • 38 °C to 41 °C in Sukkur.
  • 37 °C to 39 °C also in Larkana.
  • 35 °C to 38 °C in Nawabshah.

In South-eastern Sindh: Mirpur khas, Umerkot, Tharparkar, Badin and Hyderabad. The fifth monsoon spell could cause showers/light rain in this part as well on August 23 evening/August 24 with thunder/lightning, drizzle could occur on August 22 night as monsoon moisture is moving towards Sindh.

Temperatures are mostly stationary in this part due to absence of heat waves and rains.

  • 35 °C to 38 °C in Hyderabad.

In coastal Sindh: Karachi, Thatta, Keti, Shah Bandar and other coastal localities. There are chances of isolated showers in coastal parts during the same period that August 23 night/August 24.

Due to frequent cloud over and fast winds the mercury in Karachi and other coastal cities has remained unchanged since July 1;

  • 31 °C to 34°C in Karachi.

Pakistan Weather Update & Monsoon Alert (August 27 – September 3)

Last two weeks of August has seen meaningful rains over the sub-continent as the atmospheric rain-blocking conditions (visible on few charts) over the central and southern parts of Pakistan have started weakening (still present). Central and southern parts could witness some  rainfall before the monsoon ends while central parts have already received showers with isolated moderate falls. The atmospheric conditions had become favourable for heavy rainfall over the northern areas during the second week of August. Following is the amount of rainfall recorded during the ninth spell in the northern areas from August 20 till August 27;

  • Muzaffarabad got 319 mm.
  • Rawalpindi got 273 mm.
  • Murree got 225 mm.
  • Mandi-Bahaddin got 165 mm.
  • Balakot got 148 mm.
  • Islamabad got 144 mm.
  • Abbottabad got 142 mm.
  • Sialkot got 120 mm.
  • Kotli got 119 mm.

Much of Pakistan remains under rainy conditions

The ninth spell has weakened and would end in some parts on August 28 but it would continue in some eastern parts of northern areas till August 29/August 30 where rainfall with thunder/lightning could occur. Following are the current weather systems in the region;

*Trough of western disturbance ’18’ is over the extreme northern areas of the country.

*Upper air cyclonic circulation over north Rajasthan and adjoining area.

*Coastal trough over the western coast of India.

*Low pressure over north Chhattisgarh, it could move slightly in a WSW direction.

Tenth monsoon spell – North

Pakistan Weather Portal (PWP) forecasts the tenth spell in northern areas to ‘very high’ during the first week of September. Its intensity could be relatively weaker than the ninth spell as major thunderstorms would not form. Tenth spell would affect Islamabad, Peshawar, Lahore, Faisalabad, Murree, Gujranwal, Rawalpindi, Sargodha, Sialkot and other adjoining cities.

Seventh monsoon spell – Central

As of now there are not much mature chances of the seventh monsoon spell in central areas that is south Punjab. The sixth spell would continue till August 28 while few eastern areas could witness one or two isolated showers till August 30 after that the sixth spell would insignificant.

Fifth monsoon spell – South

Pakistan Weather Portal (PWP) had earlier forecasted that the fifth spell would enter Sindh on August 23 or August 24 and could cause isolated showers, it did not happen but on August 25 many parts of Karachi experienced isolated shower that continued till the night of August 26 with few sunny gaps. Since the quantity was unmeasured therefore PWP did not declare the 5th spell over Sindh.

Now there are chances of rain/showers in some parts of Sindh on August 28 night/August 29 till August 30/August 31 morning/mid-day. There are chances of rain/showers in Karachi, Thatta, Keti, Shah Bandar, Mirpur khas, Umerkot, Tharparkar, Badin, Hyderabad, Sukkur, Larkana, Jacobabad, Kashmore, Nawabshah. Since the atmospheric conditions are still not favourable for any major rainfall therefore the rain/showers would be mostly stable with moderate rainfall with slim chances of isolated heavy falls in coastal and south-eastern Sindh only. Hence PWP upgrades the fifth spell from ‘moderate’ to ‘high’.

Monsoon deaths – Sharply rises!

Monsoon deaths that started from the first week of August has risen to 29 in Pakistan after urban flooding in parts of northern areas as of August 27.

El-Nino weakened but not over!

El-Nino has slightly weakened as temperatures in the Pacific ocean have slightly decreased but such development is for short period of time as temperatures would once again rise and El-Nino conditions would strengthen in months to come.

Monsoon to start withdrawing!

There are few models and charts that indicate that monsoon would remain some what active till the end of August and during the first week of September it may start to withdraw from the western parts of sub-continent. However it is a little early to talk about the withdrawing phase!

One thing is clear that is rain ‘must’ occur in Sindh including Karachi before the season ends. The province cannot suffer another disaster!

Poll of the week

Pakistan Weather Portal (PWP) wants Karachiites to show their support for rain. As of August 27, 90% support it while 9% do not like such idea. Your support does bring change in weather (showers on August 25 in Karachi)!

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125 thoughts on “Pakistan Weather Update & Monsoon Alert (August 20 – September 3) – Updated on August 27!

  1. Sir very good outlook and forecast,,means this year drought is only specific for sindh not for all pakistan as it was looking earlier,,very very bad year for sindh as far as weather is concerned;-(

    • Thank you Waseem 😀 Drought-like conditions are still prevailing over much of the country, they have ‘slightly’ eased in the north but persists over central and southern parts.

  2. Thank god First time We got a small good news about karachi’s weather.. Will always remember your this line babar bhai 🙂
    (One thing is clear that is rain ‘must’ occur in Sindh including Karachi before the season ends.)

  3. Sir what is the difference b/w following terms if u will elucidate than i will be much thankfull to you,,
    1>hurricane vs typhoon
    2>cyclone vs storm
    3>tornado vs waterspout

  4. Sir what is the difference b/w following terms if u will explain in simple words than i will be thankfull to you,,
    1>hurricane vs typhoon
    2>cyclone vs storm
    3>tornado vs waterspout

    • In simple words, typhoon, hurricane and cyclone are same ‘storm’. Storm is usually defined as an event of extreme weather i.e dust storm, thunderstorm, rain storm or even solar storm. Tornado is on land while waterspout as the name suggest is on water both ‘storms’ act in the same manner.

    • waseem
      Typhoon,Hurricanes and Cyclone are sames.They called diffrently since the originate in different oceans. For Chia sea and Pacific ocean storms called Typhhon for indain ocean called Cyclone for Atlantic its called Hurricane.

      • Karachi meteo.. can you also maybe post some forecast or articles when there are chances of rains in Saudi Arabia (district Al Madinah mostly ).. please do if you can :D.. but I am not forcing you.. your choice 8)

      • Sorry buddy, I am focusing on the northern areas of Pakistan right now but I do follow Saudi Arabia’s weather only during the winter season. Its mostly sunny and hot during summer months, nothing major..

  5. Brish Sambhal Ja Zara, Phir Punjab mein anay lagi hai Tu
    Barish Yahi Ruk Ja, Phir Punjab Mein Anay Lagi Hai Tu
    Kuch barish Nahi Karachi Mein, Phir Kyon mein forecast hu dekhta
    Shayad yehi dil mein raha, Barish Yahan hojaye kya pata
    Kya hai yeh Silsila, Janu Na Mein Janu na

  6. Meteo.. I am leaving on August 24 .. I don’t REALLY want to have my flight cancelled because my father’s job is exactly on the next day.. but I am asking you if maybe flights might be disturbed on August 24 due to maybe some ..storms maybe :D? (not having and having is both exiting :P)

  7. FFD Lahore forecasting EXTREMELY heavy downpours in one or two place of north and north-east punjab including lahore in next 24 hrs…Anything to be worried about or are they exaggerating?

    • Yes about that I could not find the data 😦 , I tried my best but it seems as if that address has moved away or have been deleted!! Should I post the climatic overview of Nawabshah??

      • Sir i have read your articles on wikipedia in them nawabshah is also described,,if you not find record than i think you should tell us that which years in past were rainest and which were drought in nawabshah than it will be also good!

  8. ryt now i can see clouds coming 4rm north north west n i live in clifton so da da low pressure is heya i hop3 it brings rains as w3ll 🙂

  9. baber bhai AlhmdOlillah we experiencd gud rains in pindi during current spell.baber bhai plz tell me the difference between thundrstorm and thundershower. I shall b vry thankful to u baber bhai plz clarify these rain terminologies to me. And plz if any more spell/s expectd in north pakistan before the end of monsoon? Regardz sir

  10. http://wxmaps.org/pix/casia.vv.html

    @Km you can see in the given link that in the 6 and the 7 frame there is rain occuring in Karachi can you please confrm by your method that will there be rains in Karachi on august 29 and 30 cause i have checked our websites they showing rain on that particular date please can you you confrm it

  11. Sir most of the seasons time had passed now just countable days are remaining in withdrawing of monsoon,,would any major spell come to sindh or not? Becoz last year the devasting spell started on aug 28 night,will same situation appear in sindh??

  12. Karachi ki qismat mein barish nahi shayad.
    Kyonk Barish ka intezar kartay hai.
    Karachi wale kal bhe barish ka wait kartay thay.
    Karachi wale aaj bhe barish ka wait kartay hai.
    Karachi ki qismat mein barish nahi shayad.
    Monsoon say ek barish mangi thi hum ne
    us nay drizzle bhe nahi di sahi hai
    Us nay drizzzle bhe nahi di sahi hai
    Monsoon boring lagnay laga hai ab to
    Ab to bus sunshine aur hot hai yahan Per
    Karachi walay kal bhe barish ka wait kartay thay.
    Karachi walay aaj bhe barish ka wait kartay hai

  13. Last two weeks of hopes, InshaAllah it will rain in entire Sindh, including all parts of pakistan where drough like condition prevail. First sharp drizzle of the monsoon season in our area. Hope it will rain too in this week.

  14. @KM…
    yeah… May Allah make this 2 weeks special for us, and rains make their home to the southern region where not only people but all living things desperately need rains. is there any chance that next system may hit southern part of the country??

  15. Aoa. I’m going to Murree tomorrow.I wanted to know what range of temperatures would be there in the next 10 to 15 days.I just want to know the rough temperatures(how low it usually can get) as i have not visited murree in september it will help me alot in packing clothes and other things..And also any short term rain forecast for murree?Thx

    • 30C til 31C could be the highest while the lowest could be 26C to 23C. Rain might occur till 48 hours with mostly cloudy conditions this week, while another spell likely from September.

  16. Eyes are desperate to see thunder flashes, ears are waiting to hear the rumble of thunder, we need rain now…
    May Allah make these two weeks rainy for all those parts of the country where rains needed.

  17. Bheegey Monsoon, Pyasa Karachi Tera
    Kabhe Karachi Mein Koi Raat Guzaar
    Tera Subha tak hamein ho dedar
    August bhe khatam Huwa, Per tu na aaya
    Ab to Karachi Aja, Kab aaaye tu Karachi
    Kabhe Karachi mein koi raat Guzaar
    Tera Subha Tak Hamein ho dedar

  18. @KM if rains do occur in karachi will that rain help in dissapting that dust cloud barrier ??? And will be rains be normal again since that cloud isn’t there to stop the moisture from entering lower Sindh??

    • The rain blocking conditions have weakened but not dissipated, thus it will allow rain in Sindh overall the atmospheric condition has weakened but the rain would not help it in dissipating.

  19. i can clearly see clouds coming n forming in da sky coming 4rm north north western side usually 4rm where monsoon rains come

  20. AOA,Babar Many Sites Believe there are going to be some heavy rains in first week of september and also on the 29th and the 30 of april, What do you say are we going to see some good heavy rains this month or in september and any possibilities of post monsoon systems to affect pakistan as of now nothing is happening in arabian sea.

    • Walikum Assalam – Moderate rainfall is expected however chances of heavy rain are slim due to the prevailing conditions over lower Pakistan. As of now there does not seem to be any cyclone forming in the Arabian sea.

  21. Salam
    babar bhai same question as saad asked you above, will this rainy system help to dissipate or push the dust cloud away from southern pakistan…
    kindly answer

  22. Still Sunshine over Karachi
    How Unlucky is Karachi
    Rains die out while reaching Karachi
    Clouds moves away before reaching Karachi
    People desperate to hear rains news
    But Forgot, They live in Karachi

  23. Thanks Babar, It does not seem to be moderate rain even i think we will just be seeing some drizzle today. Cloud cover over karachi is 99% but no sign of rain. Let’s all of us pray for some rains now.

    • Welcome, Moderate rain has occurred in south-eastern Sindh today, hopefully by tomorrow such activity would affect other parts including Karachi. However drizzle occurred today in Karachi.

  24. Aaj tak itna Unlucky City nahi dekha. Aaj bhe barish ka kaha tha but but itni garmi aur sunshine hai. Sindh mein bhe barish hogaye but is city per to hamesha say ALLAH ka azaab hai. Yeh Azaab nahi to aur kiya hai ke har jagah rain aur yahan itni garmi aur sunshine whole year. Its cannot be just climate issue, Its something else

  25. @maazbinqamar please post the link of that website.

    Yes it rained for about 35 minutes here at University of Karachi. the intensity was moderate but good enough. The strange thing is that even after the rain or during the rain too it was damn hot. I mean it was raining but you could feel the closeness in the environment.
    As of now the sky is clearing. Now well have to wait if another thunder cloud formation takes place and it rains again in the evening or at night.

    regards,
    Roposh

  26. @km what is happening the clouds aren’t staying they r dissapating can you tell us what is happening and will it rain again ??? cause in Saddar it didn’t rain that much only drizzle occured

  27. It rained twice in Malir Cantt, once from 12:30pm to 1:15pm and then again from 3:45 to 4:15pm… both were moderately heavy showers and with a lot of thunder though there was hardly any lightning. Simply loved both sessions.. Yearning for more 😉

  28. Yes! the story was same for Gulistan-e-Jauhar too. Good moderate rain with a lot of thunder.

    I have just come down from the roof top and I could see quite a bit of lightning at the south, south east of Karachi.
    Just hoping that it develops into something.

    regards,
    Roposh

  29. when will the rain start here in Saddar its all dry with that smeel of rain in the air its almost as if its goin to rain ani time now but its hasnt is the storm weakning by the minute can you tell that will it rain by nite ??

  30. I I just don’t get it, there are thunderclouds right above us but nothing’s happening. What The Hell ???!! Seriously, WTH!!!!!

  31. It didnt rain yesterday at all .Earlier today it did but only lasted 10 -15 mins , and by tomorrow afternoon/evening this spell will be over …. disappointing .

  32. Karachi ka mausam bara dry, Mujhay bura bura sa lagay
    Karachi ka mausam bara jhoota, Mujhay bura bura sa lagay
    Kyon yahan barish nahi hoti, Kisi ko kuch na hai pata
    Nahi hogi yahan barish, Aisa hai logo ka kehna
    Karachi ka mausam bara boring, Mujhay ajeeb sa lagay
    Karachi ka mausam bara jhoota, Mujhay bura bura sa lagay

  33. @KM. Assalam o alaikum. we had a thunderstorm with rain late night/early morning here in NE Punjab (Sialkot 43mm and Gujranwala 33mm) . I want to ask what triggered this sudden thunderstorm as there were no such forecasts (neither the PWP forecasted it nor the PMD)

    • Walikum assalam, its the monsoon season, sudden development is always possible but on small scale. Satellite images indicated Lower part was 10 ten times active than the upper parts during the fifth spell of Sindh, northern areas were infact completely dry with passing small clouds that however brought isolated showers to the northern areas.

  34. @KM. Again the forecasts for Gujranwala have started 😦 i dont like thunder/lightening at all. BABAR BHAI WHEN WILL THE THUNDER/RAIN FORECASTS FOR GUJRANWALA STOP IN NEAR AND DISTANT FUTURE??? PLZ DO REPLY

    The forecast of PMD is funny which says “Monsoon currents are continuously penetrating in Sindh and adjoining areas” and forecasted thundershower/ rains for Pindi, Gujranwala, Lahore and MirpurKhas division. Only the prediction for Mirpurkhas is relevant to the above statement. Sounds really funny that monsoon currents are penetrating in sindh and adjoining areas but forecasted rains for upper/north punjab.

    • And even their met observations sucks, it rained almost 1 hour heavy in our area(DHA) in lahore but met office is saying 0 mm for lahore yesterday, its really really funny.

    • You are the first person in pakistan ive heard who dont like rain thunderstorms etc. Most of pakistanis are crazy about this stuff…

    • The tenth spell is starting soon, more rainfall is likely in Gujranwala in coming days. PMD said that because since past few days, major cloud activity was observed near Sindh and during that time northern areas were mostly dry with small clouds. On August 30 night, the cloud activity has increased over northern areas and you guys would see fresh spells in Punjab as Sindh would dry upfor some time..

  35. haahaha…its funny how lahore and other adjoining cities are getting way more rain but the main focus of pwp is on Sindh where it rained very less compared to northern punjab.:P

    • Because Sindh has remained dry since last year. While large thunderclouds were forming near/over Sindh (a thing not observed this monsoon), while northern areas were mostly dry (satellite images indicated) with passing small clouds. Amazingly those small clouds produced more rain in Punjab than large thunderclouds in Sindh (due to moderate atmospheric anti-rain condition over lower Pakistan and adjoining western countries). New spell is also expected in nothern Punjab. Hope that answers your question 🙂

      • that means pwp failed to predict the next monsoon spell in punjab 😛 just saying it..don’t take it seriously 😛

      • I did mention the tenth spell in North during the first week of September at the chance of ‘extremely high’. However during the fifth spell in Sindh, I was more focused on Sindh than northern areas as Sindh is going through drought.

  36. As’salam-o-alae’kum…
    Babar bhai please tell us about the intensity of rains in Sindh, will it be heavy, moderate or light. and how long the coming speel will last?
    many thanks

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